2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[Elktonnick]

Dombrowski said something a couple of days ago about the off season having no deadlines, giving the impression that he was willing to wait on JD a bit longer. That does put the Sox in a difficult situation though. I agree with you and Oldtimer, give JD a take or or leave it offer, then be prepared to move on.

 

I think time is now on DD side. There is no movement on any FAs. Martinez's camp is now faced with the fact that spring training is fast approaching. If he doesn't get a multi year deal this year. next off season the FA market for big bats is going to get a lot more crowded. Patience is a virtue here.

[a700hitter]

a700, when Kimmi asked would you accept a deal that was 7 years at $210 (in reference to our statement) you reiterated that it was unacceptable not getting the bat and standing still. You know damn well that reply indicates that you believe it is acceptable. Dress it up any way you like. Call it false choice and blah blah all you like. You're trying to scurry out of it, rather than just say, you know what actually there are situations where it is acceptable to stand still rather than give outrageously stupid contracts out.

 

Constantly living in a situation where you simply cannot allow yourself to backtrack on a stupid statement or allow yourself to be wrong, must be incredibly tiring.

 

Spudboy, I've not addressed you, so I have no idea why you're bringing up the validity of your points. Maybe strike that conversation up with somebody who quotes you.

Hitch, I think you are having a cognitive glitch. I deliberately didn't answer Kimmi's question. If I thought 7/$210 was a good idea, I'd have no problem stating that, but I don't so I haven't.

[Kimmi]

I'd take that deal right now. Slightly higher than I'd like, but completely acceptable. I reckon even, Kimmi takes that, begrudgingly.

 

I could live with that.

[Kimmi]

a700, when Kimmi asked would you accept a deal that was 7 years at $210 (in reference to our statement) you reiterated that it was unacceptable not getting the bat and standing still. You know damn well that reply indicates that you believe it is acceptable. Dress it up any way you like. Call it false choice and blah blah all you like. You're trying to scurry out of it, rather than just say, you know what actually there are situations where it is acceptable to stand still rather than give outrageously stupid contracts out.

 

You are spot on with your arguments here Hitch. Thank you.

[a700hitter]

You are trying to divert the question and the issue at hand. Hitch is absolutely right in his arguments.

 

You need to just admit that 'Kimmi is right'.

Kimmi, you noted that I didn't answer your question, and on that you were right.

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/18463-2017-18-Hot-Stove-Thread?p=1114734&viewfull=1#post1114734

 

Edit: Sowho is backtracking, Kimmi?

Edited January 7, 2018 by a700hitter

[Kimmi]

I believe 5 years at $2Mil/Yr will get the job done. I believe the 2nd question also remains open. Do we use him as a DH or plan for him to take LF for a significan portion of the season, while trading jbj? That is a legitimate question ane may impact JD's decision process and also would have an impact on the final luxury tax salary limit and who else we can afford.

 

If we sign him, I hope the plan is to keep our outfield intact and mostly use him as a DH. JD will get plenty of playing time in the OF as a 4th outfielder.

 

I have not seen any indication that JD is unwilling to sign as a DH.

[Kimmi]

It's a fair point. And I'd like to see us add, rather than do nothing, but offering out no deal is better than offering out a terrible one just so we don't stand still.

 

That's it, in a nutshell.

[Kimmi]

I think time is now on DD side. There is no movement on any FAs. Martinez's camp is now faced with the fact that spring training is fast approaching. If he doesn't get a multi year deal this year. next off season the FA market for big bats is going to get a lot more crowded. Patience is a virtue here.

 

I agree on patience, to a certain extent. And I also agree that JD is likely getting a bit edgy. However, we don't want to find ourselves in the situation where we lose out on other possible free agents while waiting on JD. If Dombrowski has a Plan B and Plan C, then there is only so much longer that he can wait on JD to make a decision.

[a700hitter]

This would piss me off:

 

• “The Orioles actually like (Jacoby) Ellsbury a little,” Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes, though several hurdles stand in the way of the Yankeesmanaging to deal the veteran outfielder. New York would have to eat the big majority of the $68.5MM remaining on Ellsbury’s contract, and he may prefer to only waive his no-trade protection for a deal that would send him closer to his home in Arizona. Ellsbury-to-Baltimore was first floated by the Yankees as part of trade talks about Manny Machado, though obviously the O’s would need a lot more than Ellsbury for such a deal given how Ellsbury has struggled in each of the last three seasons. While the Orioles’ interest in Ellsbury may be muted, his addition would bring more left-handed balance to Baltimore’s lineup and also perhaps open the door for Adam Jones to shift to right field.
  

[Hitch]

Hitch, I think you are having a cognitive glitch.

 

Well of course you do.

 

Odd that you made your two assumptions and comment immediately after I posted.

 

Must have been a coincidence.

 

I don't even recall seeing your post, so yes, you're correct. It is.

[Elktonnick]

I agree on patience, to a certain extent. And I also agree that JD is likely getting a bit edgy. However, we don't want to find ourselves in the situation where we lose out on other possible free agents while waiting on JD. If Dombrowski has a Plan B and Plan C, then there is only so much longer that he can wait on JD to make a decision.

 

Actually this FA market is pretty bereft of any position player that would help other than in a support role. I think DD is going to play this hand out all the way. He may opt to try to make a trade but only once the Martinez free agency question is resolved one way or another.

[Bellhorn04]

Well of course you do.

 

This whole exchange has gotten way out of hand. But a700 is correct when he says he just didn't address the question of whether the 7/$210 was acceptable. He might have been implying that 6/$150 would be acceptable. Based on our discussions, that would be an overpay, but far less crazy than 7/$210. You did kind of jump to a conclusion.

[moonslav59]

Dombrowski said something a couple of days ago about the off season having no deadlines, giving the impression that he was willing to wait on JD a bit longer. That does put the Sox in a difficult situation though. I agree with you and Oldtimer, give JD a take or or leave it offer, then be prepared to move on.

 

As long as a solid plan B option is still out there, and we feel we can outbid anyone for that player, we can wait as long as it takes on JD.

 

Once all other quality options are gone, then we may be screwed.

 

We're not at a timeline demand point yet, but if other options start signing quickly, we may have to lay one down.

[moonslav59]

Sure, it's a fair either-or to ask. My point is that at some point, a contract becomes bad enough that the team would be better off standing pat than taking on the contract.

 

I get that if we don't sign JD, there are other moves we can make over standing pat. The question applies to the other options as well.

 

When does BorA$$ ever get the contract he starts with?

 

$210M/7 is not realistic. I get your point about there being a limit when you walk away, but our choices are not sign JD to whatever it takes vs status quo. There are other big free agents out there beyond JD. True, we may reach a point where every big free agent we're interested in will take a deal that is above the top dollar we should pay, and we might end up settling on something near "status quo", but there's always guys like Lynn, Cobb, Bruce or slightly lesser players.

[moonslav59]

ERod's injury is part of it. Another part of it is that I'm expecting regression from Pomeranz. And another part of it is the way Porcello performed last year. I didn't expect him to repeat his 2016, but I thought he would be much better than he was last year. I'm not sure what to expect from him going forward.

 

Fair enough, but I feel better about our rotation this year than I did last winter before the Sale trade.

 

Pom may regress, but you have to feel better about him now than last winter.

 

Yes, I feel worse about Porcello now than last January, but what about "positive regression?"

 

ERod is hurt, but we were sketchy about him last winter, too.

 

I feel better about Sale than I did about Price last winter.

 

That leaves Price as the wild card.

 

I do want another SP'er. I almost always do, and I'm never for adding a 5th starter and rarely a 4th starter either. Build from the top.

 

I just think the league is dominated by power hitters, and we are so far behind the curve, it is our top priority.

 

That being said, I would not be upset, if we sign Darvish and not JD.

[moonslav59]

I am not opposed to signing him. I am opposed to signing him for more than 5 years.

 

5 years with a 6th year team option and buyout should do. The buyout will also lessen the luxury tax hit.

[moonslav59]

If we sign him, I hope the plan is to keep our outfield intact and mostly use him as a DH. JD will get plenty of playing time in the OF as a 4th outfielder.

 

I have not seen any indication that JD is unwilling to sign as a DH.

 

I totally agree. I think we can rest Betts 5-7 games, Beni 6-8 games and JBJ 16-20 games (vs tough lefties). That could give JD up to 35 games in the OF without any injuries. (Brentz would be traded or phantom DL'd.)

 

If Moreland or HRam get hurt, JD can play FT DH.

 

Moreland plays 1B vs all RHPs. HRam plays 1B vs all RHPs and DHs the other JD is in the OF vs RHPs. That keeps HRam below 497 PAs and his vesting option.

[a700hitter]

This whole exchange has gotten way out of hand. But a700 is correct when he says he just didn't address the question of whether the 7/$210 was acceptable. He might have been implying that 6/$150 would be acceptable. Based on our discussions, that would be an overpay, but far less crazy than 7/$210. You did kind of jump to a conclusion.

Yes, 6/$150 million is also an overpay, especiallyvin light of the fact that we could have had Encarnacion for a mere fraction of that last year. At 6/$150, I would be tempted to get Machado for one year before the Yankees swoop in for him. Then next off-season they could make the big push to re-sign Machado or sign Harper or just raise another WS banner.

[notin]

I'm probably one of the bigger JD Martinez supporters here (which was not true at the beginning of the off-season) and this process is truly frustrating.

 

The market offers very little in the way of alternatives, but right now if the Sox want to make a lesser "splash" with an eye on the next market, Mike Moustakas might be the biggest bargain available based on the amount of buzz about him. (Although signing Moreland does make this more difficult. )

[a700hitter]

I'm probably one of the bigger JD Martinez supporters here (which was not true at the beginning of the off-season) and this process is truly frustrating.

 

The market offers very little in the way of alternatives, but right now if the Sox want to make a lesser "splash" with an eye on the next market, Mike Moustakas might be the biggest bargain available based on the amount of buzz about him. (Although signing Moreland does make this more difficult. )

DD has boxed himself in a bit by resigning Moreland.

[harmony]

I think time is now on DD side. There is no movement on any FAs. Martinez's camp is now faced with the fact that spring training is fast approaching. If he doesn't get a multi year deal this year. next off season the FA market for big bats is going to get a lot more crowded. Patience is a virtue here.

That assumes that the Red Sox are the only (or preferred) suitor for J.D. Martinez.

[Bellhorn04]

5 years with a 6th year team option and buyout should do. The buyout will also lessen the luxury tax hit.

 

I don't think a buyout lessens the tax hit. It just becomes part of the guaranteed money and is factored into the AAV.

[jacksonianmarch]

I don't think a buyout lessens the tax hit. It just becomes part of the guaranteed money and is factored into the AAV.

 

If I remember correctly, buyouts INCREASE a tax hit. The tax hit is guaranteed money divided by guaranteed years. Lets say you have a 5 yr $125 mil contract with a $25 mil 6th yr option that has a $10 mil buyout. The AAV of the contract, IIRC, will be calculated as $135 mil over 5 years. You don't want a buyout nowadays. What you may want is an option with no buyout or a mutual option that allows the player to opt in at a lower cost.

[Bellhorn04]

If I remember correctly, buyouts INCREASE a tax hit. The tax hit is guaranteed money divided by guaranteed years. Lets say you have a 5 yr $125 mil contract with a $25 mil 6th yr option that has a $10 mil buyout. The AAV of the contract, IIRC, will be calculated as $135 mil over 5 years. You don't want a buyout nowadays. What you may want is an option with no buyout or a mutual option that allows the player to opt in at a lower cost.

 

Your calculations are right. A buyout is just more gravy for the player, one of those things that helps entice them to sign on the dotted line, I'd say.

[Elktonnick]

That assumes that the Red Sox are the only (or preferred) suitor for J.D. Martinez.

 

I think that is obvious.

[moonslav59]

I'm probably one of the bigger JD Martinez supporters here (which was not true at the beginning of the off-season) and this process is truly frustrating.

 

The market offers very little in the way of alternatives, but right now if the Sox want to make a lesser "splash" with an eye on the next market, Mike Moustakas might be the biggest bargain available based on the amount of buzz about him. (Although signing Moreland does make this more difficult. )

 

With Moreland on board, MM seems much less likely, unless we DH Devers and bench HRam.

 

I liked the idea of signing Moose and moving Devers to 1B.

[Kimmi]

This would piss me off:

 

I can't see Ellsbury waiving his no trade clause to go to the Os.

[Kimmi]

Actually this FA market is pretty bereft of any position player that would help other than in a support role. I think DD is going to play this hand out all the way. He may opt to try to make a trade but only once the Martinez free agency question is resolved one way or another.

 

That could very well be the case. Dombrowski even said that there was no deadline.

[Kimmi]

As long as a solid plan B option is still out there, and we feel we can outbid anyone for that player, we can wait as long as it takes on JD.

 

Once all other quality options are gone, then we may be screwed.

 

We're not at a timeline demand point yet, but if other options start signing quickly, we may have to lay one down.

 

All fair points.

 

If Dombrowski wants to play the waiting game, I'm fine with that.

 

What I don't want him to do is to panic and cave in to Boras' demands.

[Kimmi]

When does BorA$$ ever get the contract he starts with?

 

$210M/7 is not realistic. I get your point about there being a limit when you walk away, but our choices are not sign JD to whatever it takes vs status quo. There are other big free agents out there beyond JD. True, we may reach a point where every big free agent we're interested in will take a deal that is above the top dollar we should pay, and we might end up settling on something near "status quo", but there's always guys like Lynn, Cobb, Bruce or slightly lesser players.

 

I realize that there are other players that could be signed instead of JD.

 

My point is that if it comes down to staying status quo or taking on a bad contract, I'd stay status quo, regardless of who the bad contract is for. There are worse things than remaining status quo when you have a team that is already a contender.