2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[Bellhorn04]

But what can you say about what kind of season a player is having by watching them a game here and a game there? Performance varies from game to game, even with fielding.

[Jack Flap]

You want to use fWAR because it makes your point better. However, all that's doing is pointing out one of the flaws i see in WAR in that we have two different bodies computing WAR and they can't get it the same. Is there another statistic that's named the same but two bodies get different results??? RBI's? BA? OPS? And people wonder why some of us have little faith in WAR

 

I'm not sure how fWAR and bWAR being different is supposed to show a flaw in WAR. They are calculated differently, and therefore each tells you something a bit different. No one thinks they're supposed to match.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/differences-fwar-rwar/

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure how fWAR and bWAR being different is supposed to show a flaw in WAR. They are calculated differently, and therefore each tells you something a bit different. No one thinks they're supposed to match.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/differences-fwar-rwar/

 

In all fairness, it does show that different people (or services) choose to place value based on different criteria. One could view that as being subjective with their initial choices of measurement.

 

Personally, I have no issue with different criteria being used, in fact, I find it helpful to have two different methodologies being used to determine value. This way I can look at both numbers and figure the value is probably somewhere in between both numbers much more often than not. It should be noted that significantly vast differences are pretty rare between bWAR and fWAR.

[Bellhorn04]

It should be noted that significantly vast differences are pretty rare between bWAR and fWAR.

 

With pitchers there are. Look at Chris Archer 2016-2017 for example.

[Kimmi]

I like Butler. Very good Catcher, that never gets a chance.

 

It was a good depth signing.

[Kimmi]

The eye test really isn't a fair way to judge players you don't see equally.

 

That is the bottom line. Even if you do see two players equally, human bias will affect that judgment.

 

People here have seen enough baseball to know a good player when they see one. I don't think anyone questions that. However, to determine how a good a player is relative to other players, that's nearly impossible to do without the stats.

[Kimmi]

I'm not sure how fWAR and bWAR being different is supposed to show a flaw in WAR. They are calculated differently, and therefore each tells you something a bit different. No one thinks they're supposed to match.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/differences-fwar-rwar/

 

Thank you.

 

That's not to say that WAR is perfect. No stat is. But the fact that the calculations are based on different stats does not make it a flawed or bad stat.

 

I can guarantee that if each team employed official scorekeepers from several different sites, those sites would get different results for BA, OPS, and RBIs.

[moonslav59]

With pitchers there are. Look at Chris Archer 2016-2017 for example.

 

Yes, we already dissected the wide Archer WAR differentials. I'm sure there are others with big xFIP vs non xFIP indicators, but for the most part, pitchers with very goof xFIP perform well under other indicators at the same time, so my guess is large differentials are rare.

 

Personally, I find fault with an over reliance on FIP. I think it falsely harms low K pitchers who consistently get players to make out by contact (GO's and FO's) and credits pitchers with high K rates but also high OPS against. I get the reasoning to the formula, and I do think it has value, but it is nice to have a second methodology to compare results (bWAR).

[moonslav59]

Thank you.

 

That's not to say that WAR is perfect. No stat is. But the fact that the calculations are based on different stats does not make it a flawed or bad stat.

 

I can guarantee that if each team employed official scorekeepers from several different sites, those sites would get different results for BA, OPS, and RBIs.

 

Exactly, and when fans used to argue about who is better or worse before these metrics, we often heard debates like this:

 

"Player A had a much better BA and SLG%."

 

"But, player B had a better OBP and more RBIs."

 

Each fan placed more value on one stat vs another, and obvious subjectivity occurred more often as fans often switched their criteria to meet their preconceived beliefs. At least each WAR methodology stays consistent.

 

Yes, every stat and metric has flaws. Nobody here has ever argued otherwise.

 

I think the idea of trying to put one number to the whole scope of a player's value is an admirable endeavor- flaws and all. I have no issue with anyone who does not think that idea is worthwhile or of any importance, but I'm pretty sure each team has been trying to do something like this internally for a long time. They probably also use UZR/150, bWAR and fWAR as part of their evaluations.

 

[notin]

Not to mention how minuscule differences in BA get magnified to the point where people think they are enormous.

 

Or primarily using ERA to evaluate pitchers, knowing full well it can be heavily dependent on team defense. (I do this, too.)

[moonslav59]

Not to mention how minuscule differences in BA get magnified to the point where people think they are enormous.

 

Or primarily using ERA to evaluate pitchers, knowing full well it can be heavily dependent on team defense. (I do this, too.)

 

Even ERA- and ERA+ have flaws, but they are better than ERA.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, we already dissected the wide Archer WAR differentials. I'm sure there are others with big xFIP vs non xFIP indicators, but for the most part, pitchers with very goof xFIP perform well under other indicators at the same time, so my guess is large differentials are rare.

 

Archer's 2017 differential is monstrous - 3.4 WAR. I have seen some other large ones too. Check out Buchholz in 2014. According to FG he was +1.6, according to B-R he was -1.6. So there's a 3.2 spread. Porcello is another one who seems to score better on FG.

 

Interesting statistical oddities, if nothing else, I guess.

[moonslav59]

Archer's 2017 differential is monstrous - 3.4 WAR. I have seen some other large ones too. Check out Buchholz in 2014. According to FG he was +1.6, according to B-R he was -1.6. So there's a 3.2 spread. Porcello is another one who seems to score better on FG.

 

Interesting statistical oddities, if nothing else, I guess.

 

I never said there were no others. Maybe it's not as "rare" as I think, but since both use different methods, it doesn't bother me, as long as I know why there is a difference.

[Jasonbay44]

Happy New Year everyone!

 

Quick question, can someone explain why is WAR different on almost every site? That is one thing I can never figure out. Like on ESPN, FG, and BR, the same guy can have different a wide variety of WAR. Do these sites all just use different formulas? What even is the formula? Its really annoying me trying to figure this out and its not the easiest thing to find on google.

[harmony]

Happy New Year everyone!

 

Quick question, can someone explain why is WAR different on almost every site? That is one thing I can never figure out. Like on ESPN, FG, and BR, the same guy can have different a wide variety of WAR. Do these sites all just use different formulas? What even is the formula? Its really annoying me trying to figure this out and its not the easiest thing to find on google.

As Jack Flap graciously provided in a recent post to this thread:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/differences-fwar-rwar/

[moonslav59]

As Jack Flap graciously provided in a recent post to this thread:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/differences-fwar-rwar/

 

The summary...

The fact that there are different WAR values is not a problem, but rather a feature. WAR attempts to summarize a player’s on-field value and that is a very complicated question. Given how complicated baseball is, you would expect that people would arrive at different solutions to the same problem.

 

Positional player WAR values typically only differ dramatically when the various systems disagree about a player’s defense. The hitting and running stats are different, but they usually aren’t different enough to significantly alter the values you see.

 

Pitchers, however, are valued very differently by the different systems. FIP is a linear weights based system that treats all balls in play as equally valuable and ignores sequencing. Baseball-Reference starts with runs allowed and works backwards. Baseball Prospectus uses a complex modeling system to attempt to derive the value of individual events while controlling for contextual factors. You have to decide which method is the one you prefer, although looking at each site is the best way to get a complete picture of the player.

[Jasonbay44]

Thanks guys. I can definitely see why the pitchers are so different now.

 

Now if only I could fully understand Pro Football Focus "ratings" and I'd be pretty much on top of advanced stats..

[notin]

Thanks guys. I can definitely see why the pitchers are so different now.

 

Now if only I could fully understand Pro Football Focus "ratings" and I'd be pretty much on top of advanced stats..

 

No one understands the Quarterback Rating.

 

And the NBA has some complex ones now too...

[harmony]

J.D. Martinez has a five-year offer from the Red Sox, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today:

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2018/01/02/mlb-hot-stove-free-agents-luxury-tax/995440001/

[a700hitter]

J.D. Martinez has a five-year offer from the Red Sox, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today:

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2018/01/02/mlb-hot-stove-free-agents-luxury-tax/995440001/

That should do it.

[jd98]

I haven't posted in a really long time, but I've got a question that someone here can probably answer. Is there something preventing a ridiculous front loaded contract with an opt out. Something like signing JD to a 15 yr contract, first 4 years at 30M, last 11 years at 1M, with an opt out after 4 years. That would essentially be 4/120 since he's guaranteed to opt out, but only counts as 8.7M toward luxury tax. Is this a real loophole to avoid luxury tax, or is there something preventing it?

[oldtimer]

J.D. Martinez has a five-year offer from the Red Sox, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today:

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2018/01/02/mlb-hot-stove-free-agents-luxury-tax/995440001/

 

Good to hear, but the question remains, does it have an expiration date?

[FredLynn]

J.D. Martinez has a five-year offer from the Red Sox, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today:

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2018/01/02/mlb-hot-stove-free-agents-luxury-tax/995440001/

 

I would not offer him more years unless he accepts much less money. And thats not going to happen.

[jacksonianmarch]

I haven't posted in a really long time, but I've got a question that someone here can probably answer. Is there something preventing a ridiculous front loaded contract with an opt out. Something like signing JD to a 15 yr contract, first 4 years at 30M, last 11 years at 1M, with an opt out after 4 years. That would essentially be 4/120 since he's guaranteed to opt out, but only counts as 8.7M toward luxury tax. Is this a real loophole to avoid luxury tax, or is there something preventing it?

 

There is not jd. As a matter of fact, I think that’s the thing Harper will be asking for in his deal. Front load the contract with an opt out then smaller purses after the opt out. Allows the player to have security for injury or ineffectiveness as well as a chance to make obscene cash and allows the team to have a lower lux tax hit

[notin]

There is not jd. As a matter of fact, I think that’s the thing Harper will be asking for in his deal. Front load the contract with an opt out then smaller purses after the opt out. Allows the player to have security for injury or ineffectiveness as well as a chance to make obscene cash and allows the team to have a lower lux tax hit

 

Similar to the contract Adrian Beltre received from the Red Sox, but only for one year with one option.

 

The issue might be getting the player to sign. Someone like Harper might want the longer deal in case of injury, and he might not want to be hurt and making a paltry $1mill.

[moonslav59]

Similar to the contract Adrian Beltre received from the Red Sox, but only for one year with one option.

 

The issue might be getting the player to sign. Someone like Harper might want the longer deal in case of injury, and he might not want to be hurt and making a paltry $1mill.

 

Well, it's $1M x 11 years, so it's $11M for not ever playing again, assuming a career ending injury.

 

One could imagine $30M x 4 years with an opt out after 4 with $2M a year for the next 16 years- basically $152M/20, if he does not opt out.

 

He can retire with a $32M payout over 16 years or opt out and probably make more than that on a 2-3 year deal somewhere, if he's doing well, healthy and wants to play into his old age.

 

That's just $7.6M against the luxury tax.

[Bellhorn04]

MLB has to approve all contracts, of course.

[jacksonianmarch]

I was thinking more a 10 year $300 mil contract for Harper with $120 mil over the first 3 years then $180 mil over the final 7 with an opt out after 3.

 

In terms of JD, you’re not getting him to bite. Harper would want that opt out around the age of 30 so he can cash in again on a long term deal. JD is already 30, so this is his last big contract. You might be able to sign him for 5 yrs $130 mil and have $100 mil over the first 3 seasons with an opt out if you want to, but it’s have to be an obscene front loading for him to opt out at age 33

[cp176]

I'm dreaming I'm sure - but - can you imagine a lineup that has J.D. Martinez, Machado, and a healthy Ramirez in it? It actually could happen. That would be enough to make any self respecting Yankee fan throw up their morning chow. Wether you like it or not, that would be one hell of a lineup.

[baseball jones]

There is not jd. As a matter of fact, I think that’s the thing Harper will be asking for in his deal. Front load the contract with an opt out then smaller purses after the opt out. Allows the player to have security for injury or ineffectiveness as well as a chance to make obscene cash and allows the team to have a lower lux tax hit

 

this isnt a deal for someone like harper.you have to backload his deal or he will scoop up all your money and run to another team and get more.