2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[Bellhorn04]

I saw an article on this on nbc sports Boston.

 

Seems Manny wants to play short next year. Dave would be foolish to do this deal without getting an extension first.

 

Some reporters have speculated bogey, Rodriguez, groome and chavis would get the deal done.

 

I can't see any way Machado would agree to an extension unless it was the $350 million or so that some have speculated he could get next year.

 

So we would be trading a lot of talent for 1 year of his services, plus signing him to the biggest free agent contract in history. Yuck.

Edited December 30, 2017 by Bellhorn04

[cp176]

I would be very surprised if this signing happened. it doesn't seem to make any sense to me at all. SS for one is not an area of need. A power bat is of course but signing Machado just doesn't make it for me.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, you said, "all the metrics," so I assumed you looked at more than just one.

 

My guess is Bogey is somewhere between just below average (17th to 20th) and near the worst (27th to 30th).

 

If you split the difference, he's maybe 22nd to 25th, which is where I'd place him based on my limited knowledge of other teams' starting SS defense.

 

He's clearly no a plus, and I think saying he is "so-so" is being generous. Using only UZR/150, I guess being 19th out of 30 could be considered "s0-s0".

 

You're right, it was a loose statement by me to say 'all the metrics'. I was only looking at his bWAR and fWAR numbers.

 

If anything this seems like a good reason to just look at total WAR. If you use that he's clearly been a plus player.

[Bellhorn04]

I would be very surprised if this signing happened. it doesn't seem to make any sense to me at all. SS for one is not an area of need. A power bat is of course but signing Machado just doesn't make it for me.

 

It makes no sense at all. We could sign Martinez for half as much money and not give up any talent whatsoever.

[cp176]

It makes no sense at all. We could sign Martinez for half as much money and not give up any talent whatsoever.

 

That's why the Red Sox interest according to most reports is just lukewarm.

[jacksonianmarch]

I’d offer Bogaerts and Chavis for Machado. You only lose one season as Bogey is a FA after 2019. Chavis would be their prospect chip then they can flip Bogey afterwards for more prospect capital. Machado moves back to SS and gets a 1 year cameo in Boston to see if he likes it.

 

I have also recommended a front loaded contract with Harper or Machado. I’d offer both a 10 year $300 mil contract with $120 mil over the first three seasons with an opt out afterwards. That allows them to get $40 mil annually while only counting against the lux tax at $30 mil. It also gives the players an insurance policy of 7 years and $180 mil after the opt out should they get hurt

[Bellhorn04]

I’d offer Bogaerts and Chavis for Machado. You only lose one season as Bogey is a FA after 2019.

 

Right, we 'only lose one season' of Bogey.

 

But we also 'only get one season' of Machado.

 

Plus we give up more.

 

Yuck that.

[Kimmi]

I can't see any way Machado would agree to an extension unless it was the $350 million or so that some have speculated he could get next year.

 

So we would be trading a lot of talent for 1 year of his services, plus signing him to the biggest free agent contract in history. Yuck.

 

As was the case with Stanton, Just Say No to Machado. If we have any plans of acquiring Machado, it would make so much more sense to just wait until next year when he will only cost an outrageous amount in dollars, not in dollars plus prospects.

[Hitch]

As was the case with Stanton, Just Say No to Machado. If we have any plans of acquiring Machado, it would make so much more sense to just wait until next year when he will only cost an outrageous amount in dollars, not in dollars plus prospects.

 

Plus a draft pick however....

[Kimmi]

Plus a draft pick however....

 

Fair point.

 

Not that I'm condoning signing Machado as a free agent next year either. I would not do it either way. That's just my personal aversion to those massive contracts.

[OH FOY]

O's got to be asking for Devers, they don't want Bogaerts. If DD does that, then I will be really ticked off.

[Station 13]

I can't see any way Machado would agree to an extension unless it was the $350 million or so that some have speculated he could get next year.

 

So we would be trading a lot of talent for 1 year of his services, plus signing him to the biggest free agent contract in history. Yuck.

 

Save that money to extend Betts and Chris Sale.

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox will lose two draft picks and INTL money. They’ll keep their 1st, but lose their 2nd and 5th. As a large market club over the lux cap, they’ll also lose $1 mil in INTL funds

[Jack Flap]

O's got to be asking for Devers, they don't want Bogaerts. If DD does that, then I will be really ticked off.

 

https://tenor.com/view/michael-caine-never-nope-forget-it-nah-gif-5009135

[notin]

O's got to be asking for Devers, they don't want Bogaerts. If DD does that, then I will be really ticked off.

 

Devers might be just the starting point.

 

I wouldn't have an issue trading Devers (plus ?) for Machado, but I definitely have one trading Devers for ONE YEAR of Machado. Not sure how many years makes me comfortable. But definitely not one...

[notin]

The sox will lose two draft picks and INTL money. They’ll keep their 1st, but lose their 2nd and 5th. As a large market club over the lux cap, they’ll also lose $1 mil in INTL funds

 

But the Sox were under the limit last year. You're thinking of the Yankees who were over...

[jacksonianmarch]

I’m talking about signing Machado next year

[notin]

I’m talking about signing Machado next year

 

That might happen, but certainly/hopefully not because they traded for him.

 

And while I am not a big fan of Dombrowski's short term MO, if he does make a deal for Machado for one season, only to watch him walk afterwards (or really, even if he pays him what he wants), I will start thinking of our President of Ops and acting GM as incompetent...

[jacksonianmarch]

I was only saying that as the acquisition cost to get Machado if he doesn’t get dealt plus his contract.

 

The punishment now for signing QO FAs is insanely harsh. Yes, you’re no longer losing your first rounder, but you’re losing 2 of the top 5 draft picks in your draft and losing $1 mil of INTL funds that equates to losing a top draft choice internationally or many different plYers that you could sign for less than that

[baseball jones]

machado is a game changer, a leader.non of our young talent is that or have shown their going to be.Devers might still be that but we dont know yet.he's young like most of our guys and will spark them to play at a higher level than we've seen so far.in 13 we had napoli,victorino and gomes change things that way.before that varitek was the glove in the face guy.we need that grit to a part of the sox again and machado brings that.in a couple of years this team will be in the same wasteland that detroit is today,championships are the only thing that might change that.i think machado brings us championships

[Elktonnick]

I think this whole Machado rumor out of Jon Morosi is much to do about nothing. I heard Morosi when made his report on MLB TV. It is very thin gruel.

 

First of all Morosi is basing it mostly on the supposedly close relationship between Dave Dombrowski and Dan Duquette going back to their days in Montreal. Newsflash to Morosi. Peter Angelos is the owner of the Orioles. Nothing happens in Birdland unless Peter Angelos okays it. Peter Angelos absolutely hates to make deals within the division. He only allows such deals when the Orioles get much more than they give up. Angelos allowed the Miller E-Rod deal because the Orioles were a contender making a playoff run at the time and the Red Sox weren't.

 

I'd be very surprised if the most stubborn mercurial owner in baseball lets this one happen without the Red Sox giving up a heck of a lot more than Machado is worth.

[Bellhorn04]

Giving up a lot for one year of Machado just doesn't make sense. I'm sure they'll have suitors for him at the deadline though.

[notin]

Giving up a lot for one year of Machado just doesn't make sense. I'm sure they'll have suitors for him at the deadline though.

 

If he gets dealt at the deadline, then absolutely wait on him, as there will be no Qualifying Offer attached...

[notin]

 

I'd be very surprised if the most stubborn mercurial owner in baseball lets this one happen without the Red Sox giving up a heck of a lot more than Machado is worth.

 

How much is one year of Machado actually worth? Is he worth 3 years of Bradley? Four years of ERod? Six years of Chavis?

 

In what figures to be a lost season in Baltimore, while none of those deals would ever happen, in which ones do the Orioles actually lose out?

[notin]

machado is a game changer, a leader.non of our young talent is that or have shown their going to be.Devers might still be that but we dont know yet.he's young like most of our guys and will spark them to play at a higher level than we've seen so far.in 13 we had napoli,victorino and gomes change things that way.before that varitek was the glove in the face guy.we need that grit to a part of the sox again and machado brings that.in a couple of years this team will be in the same wasteland that detroit is today,championships are the only thing that might change that.i think machado brings us championships

 

The interest in Machado is also possibly a negotiating tactic against Boras and Martinez. It won't work, but then neither does Boras' oft-employed and ineffective "Mystery Team" tactic...

[baseball jones]

The interest in Machado is also possibly a negotiating tactic against Boras and Martinez. It won't work, but then neither does Boras' oft-employed and ineffective "Mystery Team" tactic...

 

yes thats prob the case here but the yanks do have what it would take to get him and if they do?

[notin]

yes thats prob the case here but the yanks do have what it would take to get him and if they do?

 

Angelos has said he won't trade Machado to anyone who will flip him to the Yankees. So either he hates them so much he certainly won't trade, or he wants their prospects for himself. If it's the latter, not so good. Unless he insists upon Torres plus, in which case it won't matter.

 

 

But as it has been said before, he is a weird and tempermental guy. I think he holds Machado until at least July.

[Kimmi]

machado is a game changer, a leader.non of our young talent is that or have shown their going to be.Devers might still be that but we dont know yet.he's young like most of our guys and will spark them to play at a higher level than we've seen so far.in 13 we had napoli,victorino and gomes change things that way.before that varitek was the glove in the face guy.we need that grit to a part of the sox again and machado brings that.in a couple of years this team will be in the same wasteland that detroit is today,championships are the only thing that might change that.i think machado brings us championships

 

I just don't see the leadership quality that you're talking about with Machado. Maybe because we're on the opposing side of that, but still. I see a 'punk' quality in him, which I don't consider to be leadership.

 

Also, I like your use of the word 'wasteland'.

[baseball jones]

i get that,i hated him too.he's still better than anyone in a red sox uniform and he made our leader his bitch last year.

[moonslav59]

This is really starting to make me chuckle now. the FIELDING BIBLE - now that sounds pretty damn impressive for sure but Moon are you saying that this BIBLE shows how voters sometimes vary widely on their rankings? I'm looking at the info you have listed and I am seeing quite the discrepancy as well. Who you gonna believe these days? It just is not right when these folks who gather all this information and put it to the test can't be counted on to just agree!

 

I was trying to show how asking individuals to rank defenders by position has a wider range that the range you complained about between UZR/150 that had Bogey 19th and DRS that had Bogey 30th. You were seemingly implying that such a wide discrepancy between metrics shows they are either not to be trusted or are as subjective as us individual observers seem to be. Maybe I mistook your position, but to me, the wide range between UZR/150 and DRS is somewhat puzzling but not to the point where I throw both out the window and go by just my own opinion based on a wildly skewed personal viewing sample.