Countdown to the Playoffs - 2017 Edition

[moonslav59]

Clearly Sale, Pomeranz and Porcello will be our 3 and as it looks now E-Rod is a more reliable 4th.

 

Funny how just 2 starts ago, people were saying Fister should start the first game of the playoffs.

 

Now, he doesn't even make your top 4.

[BstHcpr]

Clearly Sale, Pomeranz and Porcello will be our 3 and as it looks now E-Rod is a more reliable 4th.

 

Funny how just 2 starts ago, people were saying Fister should start the first game of the playoffs.

 

Now, he doesn't even make your top 4.

 

I don't think anyone was serious about him starting G1.

[moonslav59]

I don't think anyone was serious about him starting G1.

 

I'm not so sure. Certainly several had him in the top 2 to 4.

[oldtimer]

I'm not so sure. Certainly several had him in the top 2 to 4.

 

Fister hasn't shown repeatability and with our weak offense, we need a guy who can get out of the first inning without damage. Too bad because when his ball is moving, he is tough to hit.

[Bellhorn04]

another extra inning win.

 

What are we, like 15-3 in extra innings?

 

FIRE AND DESIRE

[Maxbialystock]

In 2004, 2007, and 2013 the Sox had really good offenses and led the league (or near it) in runs scored, OPS, etc. Plenty of dingers too.

 

Indeed, in all three years the Sox led or were 2d in MLB in net runs scored vs. runs scored against--

 

In 2004 the Sox net was +180 and the Cardinals were the only ones better with + 187. Does anyone remember who we played in the WS?

 

In 2007 The Sox led MLB with + 210, and the next three were the Yankees at +191, the Guardians at +115, and the Rockies at +110. Does anyone remember we played in the ALCS and WS that year?

 

In 2013--you must know where this is headed--the Sox led with +197, next were the Cardinals with +187, and next were the Tigers with +172. We played the Tigers in the ALCS and the Cardinals in the WS.

 

So, wild and crazy though this might sound, just maybe a team's net--runs scored minus runs against--is a decent barometer for postseason success.

 

This year the Guardians lead the MLB pack with +227 (a huge differential), then come the Yankees at +175 and the Dodgers at +172, the Astros at +151, the Nationals at +144, the Diamondbacks at +143, and, finally, the Sox at +113.

 

As of today, September 20, the Guardians have 94 wins, the Yankees 84, the Dodgers 96, the Astros 92, the Nationals 91, the Diamondbacks 87, and the Sox 87. Except for the Yankees, that's a pretty high correlation between net runs scored and wins.

 

And, based on those other--granted, carefully selected--postseason years of 2004, 2007, and 2017, net runs scored also seems to be a decent predictor for postseason success. I find that astonishing given that this year, like most years, the winning percentages for the best team, the Dodgers is 64% and the two "worst" teams of that select group at the top, the Sox and Diamondbacks, is 58%. Both round off to winning 6 of 10 games. Indeed, the Giants, with the worst won-lost record in MLB right now, still win 4 of 10 games.

 

Thus, if the carefully selected past is prologue, it would seem the Sox will do well just to get to the ALCS, let alone win it--whoever they play in the ALDS.

[Bellhorn04]

Run differential is certainly the most reliable measurement of a team's overall strength. You can find a lot of seasons where the strongest team didn't win the trophy, though, of course.

[jacksonianmarch]

I've told you guys before, our run differential points towards a much better team than the one we currently have

[Bellhorn04]

I've told you guys before, our run differential points towards a much better team than the one we currently have

 

Yeah, you guys are 9 wins below your Pythagorean record.

[illinoisredsox]

Magic Numbers:

 

Division - 9

Wild Card - 2

[BstHcpr]

I've told you guys before, our run differential points towards a much better team than the one we currently have

 

I still think the Yankees are the best team in the AL, especially now that Judge and Chapman have been revived. Tanaka and Sabathia don't even have to pitch that deep in the postseason.

[Slasher9]

I've told you guys before, our run differential points towards a much better team than the one we currently have

 

its called pythagorean. Pyth has the yankees at 93-58. usually a teams record will be within a game or 2 of Pyth (RS pyth is 87-64 - dead on match). the yankees are unlucky this year. thankfully.

[Slasher9]

Yeah, you guys are 9 wins below your Pythagorean record.

 

this!

[jacksonianmarch]

For years when we had Mo, we outperformed our Pythag. For a team with such a deep and powerful pen, we've blown a lot of leads. You guys should ask Kimbrel to write his next contract. He's dominant AND incredibly consistent. That's the key, and he's the reason you're up on us right now

[devildavid]

Fister hasn't shown repeatability and with our weak offense, we need a guy who can get out of the first inning without damage. Too bad because when his ball is moving, he is tough to hit.

 

This is true but I still like Fister. He seems to be at a point in his career where he just can't perform consistently any more. I still might pitch him ahead of Porcello in the postseason.

[mvp 78]

For years when we had Mo, we outperformed our Pythag. For a team with such a deep and powerful pen, we've blown a lot of leads. You guys should ask Kimbrel to write his next contract. He's dominant AND incredibly consistent. That's the key, and he's the reason you're up on us right now

 

But he cost us Margot, Asuaje, Guerra and Logan Allen and had a big contract! Bad deal!

[Slasher9]

For years when we had Mo, we outperformed our Pythag. For a team with such a deep and powerful pen, we've blown a lot of leads. You guys should ask Kimbrel to write his next contract. He's dominant AND incredibly consistent. That's the key, and he's the reason you're up on us right now

 

sorry. your not getting off that easy. we have a lot of arms in our pen performing well. our success is not based on 1 man.

the yankees were lucky even after mo retired they were outperforming Pyth. it's good to see it go the other way for a change. hopefully it continues for the next decade to even it all out.....

[Slasher9]

But he cost us Margot, Asuaje, Guerra and Logan Allen and had a big contract! Bad deal!

it was an overpay no doubt. but we couldnt go into that season with Koji as our closer. a deal need to be done. but probably should have been done for less. last year the deal looked much worse than this year. if Kimby dominates in the postseason and we have a parade...the deal is platinum....

[mvp 78]

it was an overpay no doubt. but we couldnt go into that season with Koji as our closer. a deal need to be done. but probably should have been done for less. last year the deal looked much worse than this year. if Kimby dominates in the postseason and we have a parade...the deal is platinum....

 

Should have just signed Koji. He's been great. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9227&position=P Oh...

 

Well, they could have just signed the best reliever on the market that season! Joakim Soria? http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6941&position=P Ugh...

 

Ok, maybe Darren O'Day? He had a 1.52 ERA in 2015! http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3321&position=P Um....

 

Tyler Clippard? Ryan Madson? Bastardo?

 

I guess bullpens are just LOL random?

 

Well, it seems like trading for Kimbrel was the right thing to do.

[Slasher9]

Should have just signed Koji. He's been great. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9227&position=P Oh...

 

Well, they could have just signed the best reliever on the market that season! Joakim Soria? http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6941&position=P Ugh...

 

Ok, maybe Darren O'Day? He had a 1.52 ERA in 2015! http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3321&position=P Um....

 

Tyler Clippard? Ryan Madson? Bastardo?

 

I guess bullpens are just LOL random?

 

Well, it seems like trading for Kimbrel was the right thing to do.

 

i'm not sure why your yelling at me. my post states that the deal needed to be done. it was an overpay until it's not. it's not is when he nuts up in the postseason.

[mvp 78]

i'm not sure why your yelling at me. my post states that the deal needed to be done. it was an overpay until it's not. it's not is when he nuts up in the postseason.

 

I wasn't yelling at you. I'm just the crazy homeless guy down the street yelling at whoever walks by. I agree with your original post. My first post was sarcastic, hence the Trump joke.

[Slasher9]

UPDATE.

11 GAMES TO GO.

87-64

23 over has to be our high watermark this year, yes?

 

1st place in the division.

FanGraphs odds to win the division: 91.3% (+1.3%)

 

3 Games ahead of MFY.

 

btw - i hope the angels catch the twins since they are content to roll over and be the yankees bitch....

[Maxbialystock]

Run differential is certainly the most reliable measurement of a team's overall strength. You can find a lot of seasons where the strongest team didn't win the trophy, though, of course.

 

And thank goodness for that!

[Maxbialystock]

I've told you guys before, our run differential points towards a much better team than the one we currently have

 

Meaning what? Somebody died? Girardi should get fired? Hitting don't mean jack? There's a bunch of folks on talksox who think the Yankees can be tough especially since the rotation is looking pretty good (to go with the bullpen).

[mvp 78]

@jcmccaffrey

 

If the Red Sox win and the Angels lose tonight, the Red Sox officially clinch a playoff spot

 

Should read clinch a spot in the play in game that is not the real playoffs.

[cp176]

But he cost us Margot, Asuaje, Guerra and Logan Allen and had a big contract! Bad deal!

 

i'm proud of myself for recognizing sarcasm. Margot might have been ready to step in for the potential loss of Betts or Bradley whenever i guess. Guerra might have been considered as a potential replacement for Bogaerts I guess. while we were working hard to eliminate the potential mythical cliff we could have languished in 2nd or 3rd place in the east over the years. That would have been a shitload of fun don't you think.

[mvp 78]

i'm proud of myself for recognizing sarcasm. Margot might have been ready to step in for the potential loss of Betts or Bradley whenever i guess. Guerra might have been considered as a potential replacement for Bogaerts I guess. while we were working hard to eliminate the potential mythical cliff we could have languished in 2nd or 3rd place in the east over the years. That would have been a shitload of fun don't you think.

 

Asuaje is the only guy that could have really helped this team. He seems like a better version of Lin/Marrero/Holt. I'd still rather have an elite player than a bunch of pretty good ones.

[OH FOY]

Last 10 games Yanks 8-2

Sox 7-3

Looking back at this season, these last 10 games might be the biggest of the season.

Still work to do, not over yet.

[cp176]

Asuaje is the only guy that could have really helped this team. He seems like a better version of Lin/Marrero/Holt. I'd still rather have an elite player than a bunch of pretty good ones.

 

but come on - don't you sense our team approaching the cliff because of trades such as this one?

[mvp 78]

but come on - don't you sense our team approaching the cliff because of trades such as this one?

 

If there's going to be a cliff, might as well go out like Thelma and Louise.