Countdown to the Playoffs - 2017 Edition

[Maxbialystock]

Max, I'm not talking about running into an out at 3B on a GB with a shift on. I can recognize times when it may not be an open and shut case of stupidity. I can't recall what game it was, but it wasn't long ago when Beni ran to 3B on a grounder hit in front of him. That was a sure fire bonehead mistake that led to an out. It wasn't the only time we've done that and others I've mentioned.

 

I'm fine with some one thinking it wasn't likely we lost many games due to these blunderes, but I get the feeling you don't even think we've made any more than normal. Please, correct me if I am wrong on this assumption about your beliefs.

 

I mentioned the game we lost when Holt held onto the ball as the winning run scored (just barely). Surely, using your methodology, that blunder cost us a game. Do you remember the game? If so, I'm interested in your thoughts on that game.

 

 

moonslav, you probably know better than I about how many blunders this year vs. prior years. In an alternate answer I wrote but didn't send, I opined that those blunders (or whatever) are probably getting a whole more attention this year than in prior years. One explanation is that suddenly these guys have turned into zombies and forgotten how to play baseball. Despite the rigorous and unique professional apprenticeship required of all MLB players, to say nothing of the sheer redundancy of playing all those games, 6 a week for 26 weeks, before which everybody practices (and hones) basic skills, inattention and unprofessionalism swept thru the Sox. I'm not saying dogs living with cats, but still some pretty bad stuff. No wonder talksox has been in an uproar. We need the ghostbusters.

 

Or maybe some of what we are seeing is because this is the first year in recent memory when baserunning--and there has been a lot of the aggressive form of it--has been so pervasive and even necessary. When Ortiz is hitting dingers and others are following suit, when the OPS's are up, and when your team is scoring 100 more runs than the next best AL league team, who the heck cares about running out grounders, stretching singles, etc?

 

Plus the Sox baserunners historically have not been adventurous--at least in the John Henry era--because the hitting and scoring machine was usually functioning just fine. That ended when Ortiz retired.

 

So what I am saying is that we are seeing more in part because we are looking for more. We don't have the dingers and the semi-automatic great scoring to keep us satiated. We ain't scoring and we ain't winning (enough) and the blame game is on.

 

I did find that Holt game. It was August 21 when we lost to Cleveland when they scored on a late and bad throw by Holt. I've rewatched the video several times and cannot honestly call it a bonehead play. In fact, I thought Holt was really aggressive getting to the ball instead of the pitcher who was closer but Holt was in better position to throw to 3b. I think he paused for one of two reasons--either he didn't have a good grip on the ball, or he was thinking he doesn't make that play very often at all. In fact, I'll bet you that's the only time while playing 1b this year or last year or the year before when he had to throw from 1st to 3d on a bunt. Remember, that's the least likely position Farrell has him play.

 

Either way I give him a pass because to me it was a tough play. It was the errant throw, not its lateness, that caused us to lose. That suggests the grip was faulty and that what we saw was just an error and not boneheadedness. I completely agree it cost us the game.

Edited September 8, 2017 by Maxbialystock

[Slasher9]

the boneheadedness was actually throwing the ball after he double clutched. he should have eaten it. my eleven year olds know to eat it there.

[S5Dewey]

https://giphy.com/gifs/week-media-person-RL0xU1daTlMoE

[moonslav59]

moonslav, you probably know better than I about how many blunders this year vs. prior years. In an alternate answer I wrote but didn't send, I opined that those blunders (or whatever) are probably getting a whole more attention this year than in prior years. One explanation is that suddenly these guys have turned into zombies and forgotten how to play baseball. Despite the rigorous and unique professional apprenticeship required of all MLB players, to say nothing of the sheer redundancy of playing all those games, 6 a week for 26 weeks, before which everybody practices (and hones) basic skills, inattention and unprofessionalism swept thru the Sox. I'm not saying dogs living with cats, but still some pretty bad stuff. No wonder talksox has been in an uproar. We need the ghostbusters.

 

I've been railing on and on about mental blunders (and lack of "fire and desire") a long way back. I was catching grief for continuing to criticize even during our winning streak/stretch not long ago. I'm not enjoying carrying that banner. I've never tracked and counted mental blunders from year to year, so it's just my opinion that this team is way out in the lead in mental blunders among Sox teams since I started following the Sox back in the early 70's.

 

Or maybe some of what we are seeing is because this is the first year in recent memory when baserunning--and there has been a lot of the aggressive form of it--has been so pervasive and even necessary. When Ortiz is hitting dingers and others are following suit, when the OPS's are up, and when your team is scoring 100 more runs than the next best AL league team, who the heck cares about running out grounders, stretching singles, etc?

 

My beef has actually been more about defensive mental blunders not base running ones, but I have been very careful to separate running into outs out of an aggressive approach. With our team speed we should be more aggressive than years past. I'm not talking about those plays. I do think we have run into more outs solely from mental mistakes than I've ever seen a Sox team do, but not by as much as mental blunders on defense. Again, that's just my opinion, and I have no data to support it. I know, shocking, isn't it? moonslav has no data!

 

Plus the Sox baserunners historically have not been adventurous--at least in the John Henry era--because the hitting and scoring machine was usually functioning just fine. That ended when Ortiz retired.

 

Again, adventurous is not the same as boneheadedness.

 

 

So what I am saying is that we are seeing more in part because we are looking for more. We don't have the dingers and the semi-automatic great scoring to keep us satiated. We ain't scoring and we ain't winning (enough) and the blame game is on.

 

I see it like this, since HRs are way down for the Sox and only the Sox and timely hitting has also been a challenge, we can't afford making dumb mistakes on the base paths and on defense. Maybe these mistakes do "stand out" more now, because we are not in 14-4 games much anymore, but I really try to be unbiased when identifying a mistake as mental vs physical or slight over aggressiveness.

 

 

I did find that Holt game. It was August 21 when we lost to Cleveland when they scored on a late and bad throw by Holt. I've rewatched the video several times and cannot honestly call it a bonehead play. In fact, I thought Holt was really aggressive getting to the ball instead of the pitcher who was closer but Holt was in better position to throw to 3b. I think he paused for one of two reasons--either he didn't have a good grip on the ball, or he was thinking he doesn't make that play very often at all. In fact, I'll bet you that's the only time while playing 1b this year or last year or the year before when he had to throw from 1st to 3d on a bunt. Remember, that's the least likely position Farrell has him play.

 

I saw it differently. I felt he wasn't sure where or if to throw it all, until it was too late. The fact that JF had Holt in the game at all is another issue I'd be happy to debate. Yeah, he was playing a position (1B) he doesn't play much. I'm not really dwelling on why a mental mistake was made, but to me, that was clearly a mental blunder. I can understand others not seeing it that way, but I seem to recall the game thread having a majority of posters wondering why Holt held onto the ball for so long. It wasn't just my opinion.

 

 

Either way I give him a pass because to me it was a tough play. It was the errant throw, not its lateness, that caused us to lose. That suggests the grip was faulty and that what we saw was just an error and not boneheadedness. I completely agree it cost us the game.

 

You really didn't see the long hesitation (double clutch) before throwing the ball?

 

That was the blunder- not the throw.

Edited September 8, 2017 by moonslav59

[Maxbialystock]

the boneheadedness was actually throwing the ball after he double clutched. he should have eaten it. my eleven year olds know to eat it there.

 

Actually, I think he still had a play at 1b. Eating the ball was certainly a choice, but easier said then done when there is a whole lot of pressure. Remember, Holt rarely plays 1b,and that play is one of the tougher ones for any firstbaseman.

 

We have seen numerous throws the other way to first base which probably should have been eaten. I don't recall any complaints about those. One reason for that is it could become a bad habit--always look, pause, and think before throwing. Devers does that a lot. Better to fire when ready.

[a700hitter]

Actually, I think he still had a play at 1b. Eating the ball was certainly a choice, but easier said then done when there is a whole lot of pressure. Remember, Holt rarely plays 1b,and that play is one of the tougher ones for any firstbaseman.

 

We have seen numerous throws the other way to first base which probably should have been eaten. I don't recall any complaints about those. One reason for that is it could become a bad habit--always look, pause, and think before throwing. Devers does that a lot. Better to fire when ready.

I thought he still had a play at 1B after the double clutch. He tried to force the play and that is never a good idea.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe he choked - does that count as a mental mistake?

[moonslav59]

Maybe he choked - does that count as a mental mistake?

 

The double clutch or hesitation suggest mental uncertainty on what to do not some kind of physical ailment or lack of physical skill.

 

Lack of 1B experience can be part of the reason for the mental blunder, but mental it was.

[a700hitter]

Maybe he choked - does that count as a mental mistake?

Stop bringing up nonexistent things. Choking? Why don't you blame the tooth fairy.

[Bellhorn04]

I wish I had kept track of every mental blunder. It's impossible to go back now, since many of the plays are not captured in box scores or play-by-play listings. Some weren't even called errors.

 

There is a program that gives the odds of a team winning at any given point in a game. It's not perfect for sure, and it only gives the odds of a team winning or losing. It would be interesting to see how many actual times a single bonehead play turned the odds from probable winning to probable losing. This wouldn't help in the several games with 2 or more blunders, but it would be an interesting study- had someone kept track.

 

Plus, I'm sure there would be some debate about some plays I might call a mental blunder, but others might see it as a physical blunder.

 

This has been an interesting debate. The "what ifs" in baseball has always been one part of the game that often adds interest.

 

You actually could reconstruct a log of the most glaring mental mistakes this year by going through the game threads. It would be an arduous task, but it could be done. Because I know there were always plenty of posts about the obvious ones.

[moonslav59]

You actually could reconstruct a log of the most glaring mental mistakes this year by going through the game threads. It would be an arduous task, but it could be done. Because I know there were always plenty of posts about the obvious ones.

 

I don't mind doing research, but that would be too daunting for even me.

 

I'm actually kind of surprised there seems to be so much dispute over the amount of mental mistakes there have been this year. I knew there might be some disputes over what is mental vs Physical (like Holt's double-clutch and throw), but I'm kind of surprised some feel the number is so low as to not have affected even one game result. Even thinking blunders making a difference in just 1 or 2 games is a bit surprising to me.

 

[Larry Cook]

Getting back to the playoffs for a second.

 

If the Guardians finish with the best record, in the al followed by Houston and us and the Yankees with the wildcard game.

 

Would we have to go to Houston for the first series and the Yankees go to Cleveland?

[Bellhorn04]

Getting back to the playoffs for a second.

 

If the Guardians finish with the best record, in the al followed by Houston and us and the Yankees with the wildcard game.

 

Would we have to go to Houston for the first series and the Yankees go to Cleveland?

 

Yes.

[MADSTORK]

This Team is way to inconsistent both offensively and defensively.

 

Stay agressive, it might be the only way they win a Series

[moonslav59]

Go Rangers!

[SoxHop]

Go Rangers!

 

I'm right there with you on this....

[oldtimer]

Go Rangers!

 

Is it too early to talk about magic numbers? It looks like the Rangers will win tonight leaving the Sox with a Magic number of 19 with 22 games remaining for both the Sox and the Yankees. Be interesting to revisit this at the end of the TB series.

[SoxHop]

Judge to strike out at the end for the loss.......... Sweetness.........

 

Doesn't look like we can make a push for homefield. Which sucks because we are really good at home.

 

We may be able to adjust our pitching to the playoffs. And possible find some rest in there for some players too.

 

Looks like Clev, Hous, and possibly Boston are going to the show fully locked and loaded and will be able to set their starting rotation.

 

At this point. I'm hoping Minnesota makes a push and beats out the bad guys.....

[Slasher9]

Is it too early to talk about magic numbers? It looks like the Rangers will win tonight leaving the Sox with a Magic number of 19 with 22 games remaining for both the Sox and the Yankees. Be interesting to revisit this at the end of the TB series.

 

ILSox has been posting the magic numbers on this thread. Right now we are looking good. What a difference 3 games looks.

[iortiz]

We play 2 more games against TB, then 3 with OAK and then again vs TB?

 

We must win the division, or we don't even deserve to be in PO.

[jacksonianmarch]

TB was surging for awhile and now they've basically crested and started to fade. Your schedule is so easy going forward that you should be able to coast and set your rotation.

[oldtimer]

TB was surging for awhile and now they've basically crested and started to fade. Your schedule is so easy going forward that you should be able to coast and set your rotation.

 

Baseball is a crazy game. Nothing is easy. They need to take it a game at a time. It would be great if the Sox build some momentum going into the playoffs, unlike last year.

[Spudboy]

https://giphy.com/gifs/week-media-person-RL0xU1daTlMoE

 

Hahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!

 

But you BDC guy love arguing relentlessly about s***.

[Spudboy]

Baseball is a crazy game. Nothing is easy. They need to take it a game at a time. It would be great if the Sox build some momentum going into the playoffs, unlike last year.

 

But the big brains on this board have proven that momentum leading into the playoffs is not an advantage just as home field advantage does not exist.

[cp176]

Baseball is a crazy game. Nothing is easy. They need to take it a game at a time. It would be great if the Sox build some momentum going into the playoffs, unlike last year.

 

Wait now - If you are hot and winning going into the playoffs, aren't you due to start losing because it just has to happen - it is inevitable? if you are in the midst of losing games when the playoffs start, aren't you due to start winning? It is once again inevitable. The facts (stats) say it has to be. Since I have never let the facts alter my opinions, I'll go with the winning streak just like you old-timer. lol

[illinoisredsox]

Magic Numbers:

 

Division - 18

Wild Card - 16

[georom4]

The weak September schedule is a real bonus. Clinch easily, rest some players, line up the rotation, then get swept because we can't hit the ball against good pitchers.

[moonslav59]

The weak September schedule is a real bonus. Clinch easily, rest some players, line up the rotation, then get swept because we can't hit the ball against good pitchers.

 

Also, a weak Septemeber means we played a stronger earlier part of the season, so being this far in first place after playing the hardest part of the schedule should mean we could be better than the record indicates.

[Emp9]

Judge to strike out at the end for the loss.......... Sweetness.........

 

Doesn't look like we can make a push for homefield. Which sucks because we are really good at home.

We may be able to adjust our pitching to the playoffs. And possible find some rest in there for some players too.

 

Looks like Clev, Hous, and possibly Boston are going to the show fully locked and loaded and will be able to set their starting rotation.

 

At this point. I'm hoping Minnesota makes a push and beats out the bad guys.....

 

I know we have a better Home record than Away (by alot actually), but we score more on the road and have only surrendered 5 more runs on the road compared to Home (taken before last night).

[Emp9]

A butterfly flaps its wings in china....

 

Smh... Prove It!

 

lol