2018 Rotation discussion

[Northern Star]

Dumpster Diving can be expensive.

 

Only if you're doing it wrong.

[Bellhorn04]

Only if you're doing it wrong.

 

It rarely works. Can you think of a team or a GM that has consistently done well at it?

[Northern Star]

It rarely works. Can you think of a team or a GM that has consistently done well at it?

 

You could argue Beane found some value doing it, for a while at least. But my point was it shouldn't cost that much. You throw out a bunch of minor league deals with invites to ST and see if anything sticks.

[Bellhorn04]

You could argue Beane found some value doing it, for a while at least. But my point was it shouldn't cost that much. You throw out a bunch of minor league deals with invites to ST and see if anything sticks.

 

You usually get guys like Kyle Kendrick.

[a700hitter]

You usually get guys like Kyle Kendrick.

Yeah, it doesn't work.

[Kimmi]

The 'piggy back' usually involves 2 #5/#6 type starters, so I'm not sure how successful it would be on an ongoing basis.

 

Currently, yes. I'm not talking about overnight change, but I could see it happening over time. Back in the day, people probably would have thought the idea of regularly pulling starters after 5 or 6 innings was nuts too.

[Spudboy]

Just a nice little story from Pete Abraham.

 

Peter Abraham

1 hr ·

 

NEW YORK — The subway is the fastest way to get around New York, especially if you’re staying at one of the hotels in midtown and need to get to the Bronx for a baseball game.

 

The 4 train stops at 161st Street and Yankee Stadium is a few steps away. As passengers left the platform at 2:55 p.m. on Thursday, there was a holdup on the grimy stairs heading down to the street.

 

A young woman with a baby carriage was trying to make her way down the steps and people were maneuvering their way around her.

 

It was slow going until a tall man in jeans and a dark blue golf shirt stopped to help. He lifted up the front of the carriage and helped her get to the street.

 

“Thank you, sir,” she said to the good samaritan.

 

“No problem,” said the man, who then darted across the street toward an entrance to the Stadium.

 

But two teenagers stopped him first to ask for an autograph.

 

After all, it’s not every day you see Chris Sale on 161st Street.

[moonslav59]

You usually get guys like Kyle Kendrick.

 

I realize that if Price is out for 2018, replacing him with a 5 slot starter type makes sense financially, but I've always hated that idea.

It hardly ever works.

 

My philosophy is to avoid trying to acquire even 3-4 slot starters, but it's better than going for a 5 slot or two 5 slots in hopes one works. The Pom trade (3 slot) worked well, in terms of filling a high need area.

 

I've always suggested building a rotation from the top--I know-I know--easier said than done. Hardly anyone's against acquiring an ace.

When you acquire an ace, your current ace becomes your number 2. Your 2 become your 3, etc... It's like you improve 5 slots by getting one. In reality, it's not, but it seems like it does.

 

Here's a look at rotation acquisitions in the past:

 

2017 (Slot is estimated at time of acquisition)

1. Sale 15-6 2.77

6+ Fister 3-7 4.53

3. Porcello 40-34 4.08

4-5 ERod 17-17 4.23

4-5 Kelly 21-9 4.35 (RP'er now)

5 Masterson 4-2 5.61

6+ R Hill 2-1 1.55 (4 starts)

6+ Wright 21-14 3.97

4-5 Peavy 5-10 4.48

5 Dempster 8-9 4.57

6+ Webster

6+ de la Rosa

5-6 Doubront

6+ Cook

2. Lackey

4-5 E Bedard

4-5 Penny

4-5 Smoltz

5-6 P Byrd

5-6 B Colon

6+ Tavarez

2. Beckett

2-3. Dice K

3. Clement

4. D Wells

6+ J Johnson 0-4 7.36

2. Schilling

4. B Arroyo

5. Wade Miller

6+ B-H Kim

1. Pedro

 

 

[a700hitter]

Just a nice little story from Pete Abraham.

 

Peter Abraham

1 hr ·

 

NEW YORK — The subway is the fastest way to get around New York, especially if you’re staying at one of the hotels in midtown and need to get to the Bronx for a baseball game.

 

The 4 train stops at 161st Street and Yankee Stadium is a few steps away. As passengers left the platform at 2:55 p.m. on Thursday, there was a holdup on the grimy stairs heading down to the street.

 

A young woman with a baby carriage was trying to make her way down the steps and people were maneuvering their way around her.

 

It was slow going until a tall man in jeans and a dark blue golf shirt stopped to help. He lifted up the front of the carriage and helped her get to the street.

 

“Thank you, sir,” she said to the good samaritan.

 

“No problem,” said the man, who then darted across the street toward an entrance to the Stadium.

 

But two teenagers stopped him first to ask for an autograph.

 

After all, it’s not every day you see Chris Sale on 161st Street.

If he hurt his arm helping that woman, I will be very upset. NYers don't expect anyone to help them.

[Behindenemylines]

Can we get through September of 2017 before we start talking about 2018. There will be plenty of time during the winter to talk about next years pitching.

[BstHcpr]

Can we get through September of 2017 before we start talking about 2018. There will be plenty of time during the winter to talk about next years pitching.

 

You don't have to participate in the conversation.

[mvp 78]

This post doesn't count until the Sox are eliminated from the playoffs in the first round, but wanted to post it now...

 

1. Sale

2. Pomeranz

3. Porcello

4. ERod

5. Brian Johnson

 

Wright will start as a swingman until he's fully healthy. Price will get surgery and will be out all year.

[moonslav59]

This post doesn't count until the Sox are eliminated from the playoffs in the first round, but wanted to post it now...

 

1. Sale

2. Pomeranz

3. Porcello

4. ERod

5. Brian Johnson

 

Wright will start as a swingman until he's fully healthy. Price will get surgery and will be out all year.

 

We might try to bring Fister back.

 

Beeks and Haley might compete.

[Jack Flap]

You usually get guys like Kyle Kendrick.

 

True. And once in a while you get a Doug Fister for nothing...or pick up an Andrew Miller as a failed starter and turn him into an elite reliever.

 

Obviously a low success rate is to be expected for pickups like that, but if my GM isn't at least taking a flyer on a few of those guys each year, he's not doing his job, IMO.

[Behindenemylines]

If Fister has found himself he needs to be in the discussion. If he has a great September he should be in the picture. Don't forget we let Rich Hill get away. It's possible if the Sox signed Hill that the Price signing never happens. He has been real good for the Dodgers and for a lot less money then Price. Fister could be that find!

[jacksonianmarch]

This post doesn't count until the Sox are eliminated from the playoffs in the first round, but wanted to post it now...

 

1. Sale

2. Pomeranz

3. Porcello

4. ERod

5. Brian Johnson

 

Wright will start as a swingman until he's fully healthy. Price will get surgery and will be out all year.

 

I would LOVE that rotation as a Yankee fan. I have limited faith in Pom. He's been an injury risk for his whole career. He allows a fair amount of hits, a higher than normal homer rate and a high walk rate, yet he's kept his ERA down due to a high K rate. If he's pencilled in as your #2 from day 1, I'd be ecstatic. Coming into 2017, he didn't even have a guaranteed spot. If he reverts to a 4ERA pitcher that his xFIP predicts, then you'll be sunk.

 

Porcello has shown what he is when his BABIP isn't .269. He's a mid to back end pitcher who can get hot for stretches.

 

ERod has the most potential, but I also think he'll be coming off surgery. His knee is a risk to sublux until they tighten it up and I feel they'll likely do that. Whether he takes the next step into a reliable pitcher remains to be seen.

 

Johnson is garbage IMO.

 

If Price goes down and the plan is for ERod to get his knee fixed, there's no reason at all why the sox wouldn't acquire someone to fill the void. Wright isn't the answer unless he comes out smoking. And for a team that relies on pitching, I think the above would put us as the preseason ALE favorites

[moonslav59]

How about going after Lance Lynn?

 

He turns 31 next May, has never had an ERA above 4.00 and may not cost as much as other more flashy named pitchers.

 

If spending large on Lynn means we can't afford a big bat, then I'm not for the idea.

[jacksonianmarch]

Please, spend on Lynn. Look at his peripherals this year. HR rate 1.3/9, walk rate mid 3's, BABIP of .229. His average start is 6IP and with his history, he'll get a 5 year deal a la Lackey. His FIP is in the high 4's

[jacksonianmarch]

I see you guys signing a hitter and dealing for a starter

[Nick]

We might try to bring Fister back.

 

Beeks and Haley might compete.

 

My guess is Fister is on DD's short list. Their history helps here.

 

Only question is Fister may opt for assurance of starting spot and/or 2 year deal, which I don't believe Sox can offer as of now. He would be a great depth piece. You almost need 7 or 8 starters anymore.

[Maxbialystock]

Here on September 3, I'm thinking I want Fister back. Also Sale and Price of course. Probably Porcello. Then the better of Pom and Rodriguez. You can never have enough pitching, but right now I don't want to go after new blood, espxially when the hitting is suspect and the salary cap is an issue.

[moonslav59]

My guess is Fister is on DD's short list. Their history helps here.

 

Only question is Fister may opt for assurance of starting spot and/or 2 year deal, which I don't believe Sox can offer as of now. He would be a great depth piece. You almost need 7 or 8 starters anymore.

 

If he keeps pitching like this, he'll start.

[Nick]

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/07/boston_red_sox_didnt_trade_all.html

 

This is a great read on Sox Pitching Prospects by the man himself, Brian Bannister.

[moonslav59]

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/07/boston_red_sox_didnt_trade_all.html

 

This is a great read on Sox Pitching Prospects by the man himself, Brian Bannister.

 

Very nice article. Thanks, Nick.

 

I feel better about our pitching future after reading this article, and I hope we can get beyond the slump we've had with young pitchers recently.

[moonslav59]

Here on September 3, I'm thinking I want Fister back. Also Sale and Price of course. Probably Porcello. Then the better of Pom and Rodriguez. You can never have enough pitching, but right now I don't want to go after new blood, espxially when the hitting is suspect and the salary cap is an issue.

 

Maybe Wright can come back strong.

[Spudboy]

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/07/boston_red_sox_didnt_trade_all.html

 

This is a great read on Sox Pitching Prospects by the man himself, Brian Bannister.

 

That's good stuff Nick.

 

Thanks.

[Kimmi]

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/07/boston_red_sox_didnt_trade_all.html

 

This is a great read on Sox Pitching Prospects by the man himself, Brian Bannister.

 

Brian Bannister is indeed the man.

[notin]

If he keeps pitching like this, he'll start.

 

If he keeps pitching like this, it will be very expensive to keep him. Mike Pelfrey had a much worse career, had one rather boringly average season, and landed a $30mill deal. And now no one wants him except on a minors contract. ..

[moonslav59]

If he keeps pitching like this, it will be very expensive to keep him. Mike Pelfrey had a much worse career, had one rather boringly average season, and landed a $30mill deal. And now no one wants him except on a minors contract. ..

 

True. Most likely, we'll try and find the next Fister.

[Kimmi]

True. Most likely, we'll try and find the next Fister.

 

That is the kind of deal that I'm talking about. Anyone can overpay for a player through free agency or in a trade. Find me that diamond in the rough.