A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[oldtimer]

I agree completely. Many posters seem to think that they are what they are, and this team just isn't very good. Personally, I still think the offensive talent is there, and that the underperformances are puzzling.

 

At any rate, as frustrated as I am with the team right now, it's not as bad as it looks after this recent mini fall. I remain optimistic about this team.

 

I agee that we have some hitting talent on the team and it is a little mysterious why we are doing so poorly. Kind of a collective depressive atmosphere going on. I give up trying to name it, but it is what it is, very poor performance.

[moonslav59]

...collective depressive atmosphere...

Good one.

[moonslav59]

So, we need offense next year. here's a look at the wRC+ leaders from 2016-2017 combined who are FAs this winter or possible trade targets:

 

2. Votto 162

5. Donaldson 150

6. JD Martinez 148

12. Stanton 142

16. Beltre 135

23. Miggy 127

24. Abreu 126

28. Dozier 125

37. Upton 121

39. Morrison 119

42. Hosmer 117

44. Bruce 116

49. Cozart 114

 

What are the odds we get one of these guys this winter?

 

What are the odds we get someone who is over 125?

 

 

[oldtimer]

So, we need offense next year. here's a look at the wRC+ leaders from 2016-2017 combined who are FAs this winter or possible trade targets:

 

2. Votto 162

5. Donaldson 150

6. JD Martinez 148

12. Stanton 142

16. Beltre 135

23. Miggy 127

24. Abreu 126

28. Dozier 125

37. Upton 121

39. Morrison 119

42. Hosmer 117

44. Bruce 116

49. Cozart 114

 

What are the odds we get one of these guys this winter?

 

What are the odds we get someone who is over 125?

 

 

 

Scratch Donaldson from the list. His bat hasn't looked good this year. Cozart looks like a player we could use, especially if we do any significant rearranging of our team. Trouble is that he is getting toward the back end of his career. I would look for some younger players in a trade package.

[BstHcpr]

Donaldson has been hitting well since August. Pretty sure his OPS is over .900 for the season.

 

But Red Sox already have a 3B.

[Nick]

I thought we'd drop to 3rd or 5th in runs scored, so I guess that means about 100 runs, but that assumed the rest of the league wasn't going to start going bonkers with more HRs and runs scored.

 

If I had told you that we'd lose Papi, and 8 out of our top 8 returning players by PAs would decline in OPS- many by more than 100 points, I think we'd expect scoring much less than just a 100 to 120 run differential.

 

Returning Players Only

2016 to 2017 (In order of 2016 PAs)

 

.897 Betts .760 (-137)

.802 Bogey .728 (-74)

.825 Pedey .778 (-47)

.835 J. B. J. .776 (-59)

.866 HRam .760 (-106)

.705 Holt .500 (-205)

.845 Leon .652 (-193)

.850 Young .710 (-140)_______

 

.585 Vaz .734 (+149)

.835 Beni .798 (-37)

 

4 of 8 are 137 points or worse! 5 of our top 8 returning players are doing over 100 points worse! All 8 are worse by 47 points or more.

 

That's shocking.

 

 

Can you do this by positions? I'm curious at C, LF, 3B, 1B and DH in particular. SS, 2B, CF and RF probably are covered by Xander, Pedey, JBJ, and Betts.

[Bellhorn04]

Baseball Reference has us with 421 PAs on the first pitch. I'm assuming that measn we put the ball in play 421 times. In those 421 PAs, we had an .821 OPS.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=BOS&year=2017

 

Which is way below the MLB average of .936.

 

[moonslav59]

Donaldson has been hitting well since August. Pretty sure his OPS is over .900 for the season.

 

But Red Sox already have a 3B.

 

We don't have a 1Bman.

 

We could move Devers to 1B.

[moonslav59]

Which is way below the MLB average of .936.

 

 

Still, .821 beats the hell out of our overall OPS.

 

Plus, even if we did even worse some of our hitters have to do something about their predictable approach.

[Bellhorn04]

Still, .821 beats the hell out of our overall OPS.

 

Plus, even if we did even worse some of our hitters have to do something about their predictable approach.

 

Yes but the .821 only applies if you put the ball in play.

 

I think we've been swinging at more first pitches recently, but I could be wrong about that.

[moonslav59]

Can you do this by positions? I'm curious at C, LF, 3B, 1B and DH in particular. SS, 2B, CF and RF probably are covered by Xander, Pedey, JBJ, and Betts.

 

2016 to 2017 Sox OPS

 

1.045 DH .769 (-276)

.886 RF .782 (-104)

.851 CF .790 (-61)

.825 2B .751 (-74)

.807 1B .759 (-48)

.784 SS .708 (-76)

.759 LF .739 (-20)

.686 3B .659 (-27)

.655 C .693 (+38)

 

My hope before the year started was that an improvement in LF and 3B would help partially offset the sure loss at DH. I also expected our catcher OPS to stay about the same, despite the expected decline by Leon, because Vaz, Hanigan and Holaday all stunk to high heavens last year. All these three things happened, if you count Devers at 3B and beni in LF by themselves, but the rest of the team collapsed.

 

Here's some more interesting comps to last year:

 

Batting slots: 2016 to 2017

 

.874 1st .751 (-123)

.770 2nd .789 (+19)

.881 3rd .798 (-83)

.940 4th .746 (-194)

.793 5th .659 (-134)

.795 6th .756 (-39)

.660 8th .755 (+95)

.758 7th .656 (-102)

 

The major losses from the 3-5 slot have killed us.

 

OBP 1-2 slots 2016-2017

 

.365 1st .328

.352 2nd .359

 

Only the 1 slot has let us down here.

 

 

.787 9th

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Yes but the .821 only applies if you put the ball in play.

 

I think we've been swinging at more first pitches recently, but I could be wrong about that.

 

Yes. I'm not sure where to find the data on swinging at first pitches, especially first half vs second half.

 

I think our issue is that we have 3-4 players that are way out of wack when it comes to taking first pitches. They are handing the opps a free pass.

[cp176]

I agee that we have some hitting talent on the team and it is a little mysterious why we are doing so poorly. Kind of a collective depressive atmosphere going on. I give up trying to name it, but it is what it is, very poor performance.

 

Saying that our hitting isn't very good is a long way from saying that our team isn't very good. All of us know that we have one of the better teams in baseball. There are some of us - me being one - who really aren't mystified or confused at all by what this team has hit like. Assuming that they were all going to hit like last year's team, was a big stretch for me. Their collective ability to hit for any real power has been over rated by some here all year long. That does not mean that they are a bad team. Quite the contrary - they are pretty darn good. I would agree that I expected more form Mookie - not quite last year more but still more than this year - and that Bogaert's fall off the wall has been disappointing. DD has made some wise moves to inject some life into that batting order and we still keep battling away. We all probably want more but overall we ain't too bad.

[moonslav59]

Saying that our hitting isn't very good is a long way from saying that our team isn't very good. All of us know that we have one of the better teams in baseball. There are some of us - me being one - who really aren't mystified or confused at all by what this team has hit like. Assuming that they were all going to hit like last year's team, was a big stretch for me. Their collective ability to hit for any real power has been over rated by some here all year long. That does not mean that they are a bad team. Quite the contrary - they are pretty darn good. I would agree that I expected more form Mookie - not quite last year more but still more than this year - and that Bogaert's fall off the wall has been disappointing. DD has made some wise moves to inject some life into that batting order and we still keep battling away. We all probably want more but overall we ain't too bad.

 

I'm not sure anyone expected everyone to "hit like last year", but when you look at the normal age progression curves, expecting half or more to do better or equal seemed reasonable.

 

All 8 of our top returning hitters from last year, by the most PAs, are worse this year. 9 out of 10 are worse. Only Vaz (#9 in PAs) is doing better.

 

Many of these hitters are doing way worse-- like 4 are over 100 points worse.

 

To me, that is inescapably mystifying.

[cp176]

I'm not sure anyone expected everyone to "hit like last year", but when you look at the normal age progression curves, expecting half or more to do better or equal seemed reasonable.

 

All 8 of our top returning hitters from last year, by the most PAs, are worse this year. 9 out of 10 are worse. Only Vaz (#9 in PAs) is doing better.

 

Many of these hitters are doing way worse-- like 4 are over 100 points worse.

 

To me, that is inescapably mystifying.

 

I'm not disagreeing with your data for sure - I'm just not mystified nor have I observed many here saying that we are a bad baseball team. I tend to think that it is much more likely that this is who we are as opposed to who we were last year. Moving forward this is quite likely more accuraely depicts who we are going to be. If people's expectations for this year were built around how we hit last year, i guess it is safe to say that they have been over rated.

[Bellhorn04]

Not much in baseball truly mystifies me anymore. You just have to accept that it's the nature of the game to be mystifying.

[Slasher9]

Off topic for a second...isn't one of the TS guys in the Dominican?

stay safe.

also, those in FLA - be prepared.

[a700hitter]

Off topic for a second...isn't one of the TS guys in the Dominican?

stay safe.

also, those in FLA - be prepared.

Yes. UN lives in the DR. Hopefully, he gets through safely.

[Spudboy]

Yes. UN lives in the DR. Hopefully, he gets through safely.

 

The path of the storm is headed right at Santa Domingo where he lives.

 

I'm actually kind of worried. I have not seen him on FB so I can't really check in with him.

 

I have his phone number but I don't have international calling on my phone plan anymore.

 

I hope that he will be okay.

[harmony]

I'm not sure anyone expected everyone to "hit like last year", but when you look at the normal age progression curves, expecting half or more to do better or equal seemed reasonable.

 

All 8 of our top returning hitters from last year, by the most PAs, are worse this year. 9 out of 10 are worse. Only Vaz (#9 in PAs) is doing better.

 

Many of these hitters are doing way worse-- like 4 are over 100 points worse.

 

To me, that is inescapably mystifying.

It's probably a combination of players overperforming last year and underperforming this year.

 

It happens, although the almost across-the-board drop in production is unusual.

[moonslav59]

I'm not disagreeing with your data for sure - I'm just not mystified nor have I observed many here saying that we are a bad baseball team. I tend to think that it is much more likely that this is who we are as opposed to who we were last year. Moving forward this is quite likely more accuraely depicts who we are going to be. If people's expectations for this year were built around how we hit last year, i guess it is safe to say that they have been over rated.

 

Fair enough.

 

I'm not mystified we are worse than last year, but how many times do your top 8 players all decline at the same time?

[Slasher9]

Yes. UN lives in the DR. Hopefully, he gets through safely.

 

The path of the storm is headed right at Santa Domingo where he lives.

 

I'm actually kind of worried. I have not seen him on FB so I can't really check in with him.

 

I have his phone number but I don't have international calling on my phone plan anymore.

 

I hope that he will be okay.

 

UN - check in with us bro.

[Bellhorn04]

Fair enough.

 

I'm not mystified we are worse than last year, but how many times do your top 8 players all decline at the same time?

 

It's sort of the reverse of 2013 when everyone had good years.

[User Name]

Everything's fine here. We're well supplied and the storm is somewhat off-course from my city. We are well supplied and cars are in a safe place. I haven't been on much because my dad was in the ICU there for a while with a heart issue, so things have been s*****.

[harmony]

The path of the storm is headed right at Santa Domingo where he lives.

 

I'm actually kind of worried. I have not seen him on FB so I can't really check in with him.

 

I have his phone number but I don't have international calling on my phone plan anymore.

 

I hope that he will be okay.

My friend in San Juan, Puerto Rico, reported two hours ago that he is bracing for Hurricane Irma. I hope everyone is OK.

[cp176]

Fair enough.

 

I'm not mystified we are worse than last year, but how many times do your top 8 players all decline at the same time?

 

i think that it would seem unusual for sure but really not unbelievable at all. The two that puzzle me the most are Bogaerts and Betts for sure. As for the others not so much.

Leon - last years really?

Ramirez - unpredictable since what 2011 - good when he is healthy - up and down

Bradley - really? what do people expect?

Pedroia - really going to count him - the injury train has started in earnest I'm afraid

 

i guess i just don't see the big mystery . Betts and Bogaerts yes - the rest not really - I'm not surprised at all.

 

i know that you could list now every player from young to Marrero to show me how they have underachieved but remember I'm not letting the facts get in my way. A case can be made for Betts and Bogaerts.

[Spudboy]

Everything's fine here. We're well supplied and the storm is somewhat off-course from my city. We are well supplied and cars are in a safe place. I haven't been on much because my dad was in the ICU there for a while with a heart issue, so things have been s*****.

 

Good. I hope your Dad is well soon.

[Spudboy]

My friend in San Juan, Puerto Rico, reported two hours ago that he is bracing for Hurricane Irma. I hope everyone is OK.

 

That island is about to get totally f***ed.

 

With a population of 3.5 million they have shelter for only 460, 000.

 

They have debt of over 77 billion and cash reserve of only 15 million.

 

It will be interesting to see how our federal Government helps them.

[cp176]

Everything's fine here. We're well supplied and the storm is somewhat off-course from my city. We are well supplied and cars are in a safe place. I haven't been on much because my dad was in the ICU there for a while with a heart issue, so things have been s*****.

 

hunker down - good luck to you and your Dad

[mvp 78]

That island is about to get totally f***ed.

 

With a population of 3.5 million they have shelter for only 460, 000.

 

They have debt of over 77 billion and cash reserve of only 15 million.

 

It will be interesting to see how our federal Government helps them.

 

Hint: they won't.