A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[Bellhorn04]

...and if we called up Devers too early and he flopped then where would we be now?

 

Well, yeah. Let's just be happy with how good he's playing.

[S5Dewey]

i love this post.

 

Yup. Me too. There were a few of us who were saying that JBJ would be a plus player overall even if his BA were in the .220 range.

 

In addition to his cutting down a runner at the plate last night I also saw a time later in the game when he handled a base hit in RCF and the runner on 1st stopped at 2B rather than challenge his arm.

 

JBJ is the real deal. If fans as a whole put as much emphasis on defense as they do on offense everyone would see it.

[Bellhorn04]

JBJ has a 2.4 WAR in spite of slightly below average offense.

[S5Dewey]

JBJ has a 2.4 WAR in spite of slightly below average offense.

 

...which is the second highest on the team.

 

Interestingly, according to BR his oWAR is higher than his dWAR, but... whatever.

[Nick]

Yup. Me too. There were a few of us who were saying that JBJ would be a plus player overall even if his BA were in the .220 range.

 

In addition to his cutting down a runner at the plate last night I also saw a time later in the game when he handled a base hit in RCF and the runner on 1st stopped at 2B rather than challenge his arm.

 

JBJ is the real deal. If fans as a whole put as much emphasis on defense as they do on offense everyone would see it.

 

Yep, we have several issues on this team but CF is not one of them. Leave it alone.

 

Our catching tandem is just fine. They are both good defenders.

 

We seemed to have cured the 3B fiasco. We can almost live with Pablo's dead contract since Devers is producing like a $19M player.

 

We just need marginal improvements from Moreland, Betts and Xander. Beni has heated up.

 

I would like to see Workman in more high leveraged situation. He has the experience in big games.

 

It won't be a cakewalk and everyone needs to contribute.

 

Holt needs to go on DL. He's been diagnosed with lackoftalentism disorder.

[mvp 78]

Credit our brain trust with holding Devers back and watching the fiasco at 3rd base playout. Clearly we gave games away while the FO sat and watched.

 

Without a doubt.

[mvp 78]

...and if we called up Devers too early and he flopped then where would we be now?

 

Why would he have flopped? He's shown no sign of flopping.

[Nick]

WHY ARE WE REWRITING HISTORY?

 

Devers was brought up close to when he should have been brought up. Could he have gone from AA directly to majors? Yep. You guys are really dumb enough to think few games in AAA made all the difference? Get real.

 

There were reports out of baseball people that he was ready WHEN HE WAS IN AA. It was not so much rushing him as much as finishing off Pablo first.

 

Lets freaking move past it. As I said previously, it wasn't so much would he succeed as much as WHY THE HELL NOT TAKE A LOOK AT HIM? WHAT THE f*** DID WE HAVE TO LOSE? WATCH HOLT PLAY 3B INSTEAD?

[Maxbialystock]

No complaints from me on the Devers call up, which I agree was measured, not hasty. I truly think the issue was Sandoval and eating that big contract. They had to be sure neither he nor his contract was redeemable. Plus I think Devers benefitted from a few games at AAA. As it is, his defense is still not there, but his hitting is just unreal.

[Maxbialystock]

I am not a DD fan at all, but he has my grudging respect with Sale, Pomeranz, Kimbrel, Nunez, et al. Plus he let Sandoval go, finally.

[moonslav59]

Why would he have flopped? He's shown no sign of flopping.

 

He probably wouldn't have, but we'll never know. He might have been somewhere between flop and what Lin/Marrero gave us.

[Nick]

He probably wouldn't have, but we'll never know. He might have been somewhere between flop and what Lin/Marrero gave us.

 

But waiting until September would have been DUMB.

[Slasher9]

But waiting until September would have been DUMB.

 

i dont think anyone demanded that they wait until september. i believe some of us thought that's when it would happen. it really took panda being gone, frazier going to the EE, and then it was only a matter of time.

[moonslav59]

But waiting until September would have been DUMB.

 

In hindsight, yes.

 

I have trusted Sox brass on deciding when "when" is.

 

It looks like they nailed it.

 

It's not an exact science. It's not as simple as saying every player that did well out of the gate could have or should have been called up earlier, and every player that struggled out of the gate was called up too early.

[Kimmi]

Only way I see Castillo being called up is if we get killed by injuries. Its just not worth paying that money for a 4th OF that will make a minimal impact. Mookie, JBJ and Beni rarely need rest days, so it doesn't leave a lot of room for Castillo, or any other OF to get a whole lot of play time, look how few ABs Chris Young gets, and this is with him also getting AB's at DH spot.

 

For this year, absolutely not. I think he's worth a look next year. He will be expensive as a 4th outfielder, but the Sox are paying his salary anyway. The hit on the luxury tax won't be as bad, after resetting this year.

[Kimmi]

One more thought to consider:

 

Bradley is represented by boras and I am not sure it makes sense to sign him to a mega deal given how streaky a hitter he is. I get bradley's defense is elite, but you can shake any tree and a half dozen great glove guys fall out. Rarely does a bat fall out.

 

This offseason might be the pinnacle of Bradley's worth on the trade market, if he has a decent end to this season. Would desperate dave consider moving Bradley?

 

Benintendi can play center. Should be easier to find a left fielder with power than a fourth outfielder with power.

 

I hate the thought of the defensive downgrade that we would get with that alignment.

[Kimmi]

I'm going to take Moon's approach to 2018.

 

Just as he projected full year of Beni for 2017, I'm going to project full year impact of Devers. That alone should improve our offense for 2018. He can't do any worse than what we did early this year at 3B. Plus I can see few players having a bounce back year. Betts, Xander and JBJ can have better year in 2018 (assuming they don't go nuts over last 40 games this year).

 

By signing Moreland, we were able to leave enough cap space to add Nunez. We don't have to take same approach for 2018. We can blow past the tax limit.

 

Getting everyone healthy would go long ways in improving our outlook.

 

IMO, our team is in very good shape for next year. I don't think much needs to be done, outside of adding a 1B. And we will have the financial flexibility to do so.

[Kimmi]

Credit our brain trust with holding Devers back and watching the fiasco at 3rd base playout. Clearly we gave games away while the FO sat and watched.

 

Nah, I can't agree with this statement.

[Nick]

I hate the thought of the defensive downgrade that we would get with that alignment.

 

If we win it all this year, DD's approach maybe different. It maybe that he will have an opportunity to reshape the ball club.

 

What if there's another opportunity to acquire a front line ace? How about a big bat?

 

Not winning will put pressure to continue to add to get over the hump. Winning it all will allow us to reshape the team with one eye towards getting off the road to impending cliff.

[Kimmi]

If we win it all this year, DD's approach maybe different. It maybe that he will have an opportunity to reshape the ball club.

 

What if there's another opportunity to acquire a front line ace? How about a big bat?

 

Not winning will put pressure to continue to add to get over the hump. Winning it all will allow us to reshape the team with one eye towards getting off the road to impending cliff.

 

That's a possibility. Whether we win it all or not, Dombrowski could make a big move that none of us can foresee right now. He might decide to trade one of the Killer Bs, knowing that we can't re-sign them all.

 

I'm just saying that if Dombrowski does nothing other than acquiring a 1B and maybe some bench and BP tweaks, we are in good shape.

[Nick]

That's a possibility. Whether we win it all or not, Dombrowski could make a big move that none of us can foresee right now. He might decide to trade one of the Killer Bs, knowing that we can't re-sign them all.

 

I'm just saying that if Dombrowski does nothing other than acquiring a 1B and maybe some bench and BP tweaks, we are in good shape.

 

Then you and your friends can retreat from the cliff?

[mvp 78]

He probably wouldn't have, but we'll never know. He might have been somewhere between flop and what Lin/Marrero gave us.

 

We'll never know so here's a strawman argument. Um, ok?

[Nick]

With 40 games remaining and 7 1/2 game lead in wildcard race, I figure all we need is to split to capture a playoff spot. Non first place team would have to go 28-12 (.700) to move past us.

[mvp 78]

With 40 games remaining and 7 1/2 game lead in wildcard race, I figure all we need is to split to capture a playoff spot. Non first place team would have to go 28-12 (.700) to move past us.

 

WC game appearances don't count. Sox need to win the division.

[Slasher9]

WC game appearances don't count. Sox need to win the division.

 

and homefield for division round.

[mvp 78]

and homefield for division round.

 

Especially since these guys are a .500 team on the road.

[Nick]

I was going for 'worst case' scenario boys and girls. Don't get your panties in a bunch.

[moonslav59]

Then you and your friends can retreat from the cliff?

 

She meant "good shape" for 2018.

 

The good thing is, usually 1Bmen are easy to acquire and are not expensive. The bad new is, I don't see any FA 1Bmen that jump out at me an scream, "Sign me!"

[moonslav59]

We'll never know so here's a strawman argument. Um, ok?

 

I don't see where "straw man argument" fits here.

 

Nobody knows.

 

We could have called up Devers two days later and seen a different (worse) result over a tiny sample size of a players first 10-15 games.

[cp176]

I am not a DD fan at all, but he has my grudging respect with Sale, Pomeranz, Kimbrel, Nunez, et al. Plus he let Sandoval go, finally.

 

Max come on - not a fan but a fan of the moves he makes? He must have done something really personal to you or a member of your family. lol