A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[Kimmi]

Signing Devers to a 6 or 7 years deal right now would make sense.

 

It's a bit of a dice roll, but IMO, this kid is the real deal.

 

Are you talking about a 6 or 7 year extension, meaning a 12-13 year deal? I'm sure you are, which would be extremely risky after 1 month of play.

[Larry Cook]

Right now devers looks really good. He stays back on the ball and makes solid contact.

 

But at some point he is going to struggle. And if there is one thing all Red Sox youngsters have done these past three years, is when they struggle, they all lunge at pitches.

 

I do not know why they do it, but it yields terrible results and makes them look foolish.

 

Is chilli teaching them to do this?

 

I think we need to revisit a devers extension in three years.

[Bellhorn04]

Right now devers looks really good. He stays back on the ball and makes solid contact.

 

But at some point he is going to struggle. And if there is one thing all Red Sox youngsters have done these past three years, is when they struggle, they all lunge at pitches.

 

I do not know why they do it, but it yields terrible results and makes them look foolish.

 

Is chilli teaching them to do this?

 

 

A lot of those struggles have to do with opposing pitchers having 'the book' on their strengths and weaknesses and changing how they pitch to them, don't you think?

[moonslav59]

Are you talking about a 6 or 7 year extension, meaning a 12-13 year deal? I'm sure you are, which would be extremely risky after 1 month of play.

 

I meant a Tampa Bayesque deal, where they lock a player up for 6 years right out of the gate. (6 from now.)

[Kimmi]

I meant a Tampa Bayesque deal, where they lock a player up for 6 years right out of the gate. (6 from now.)

 

IMO, that doesn't do the team a whole lot of good. They already control Devers for 5 more years after this one.

[moonslav59]

IMO, that doesn't do the team a whole lot of good. They already control Devers for 5 more years after this one.

 

I meant 6 or 7 as I originally suggested, and yes, that extra year or two can be huge.

[moonslav59]

Brentz with his 28th HR (Wed night) in 1st inning. Edited August 17, 2017 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Castillo 4 for 5 with a 2B & HR.

[Bellhorn04]

I was just doing a little reading about Castillo's situation. What I hadn't realized was that the new CBA basically prevented teams from doing what the Sox did with Castillo and Craig anymore, removing them from the 40-man to get them off the payroll for tax purposes. Which was the right thing to do, I would say.

[moonslav59]

I was just doing a little reading about Castillo's situation. What I hadn't realized was that the new CBA basically prevented teams from doing what the Sox did with Castillo and Craig anymore, removing them from the 40-man to get them off the payroll for tax purposes. Which was the right thing to do, I would say.

 

It also says that if we add Castillo for just one day, his remaining contract will count against the luxury tax to the end.

 

The rule actually hurts Castillo's chance to get a call-up, since the Sox are gambling on him being good enough to stay (and play) on the 40 man for 3 more years.

 

I get the spirit of the rule, but Castillo looks to remain in purgatory.

 

[Bellhorn04]

It also says that if we add Castillo for just one day, his remaining contract will count against the luxury tax to the end.

 

The rule actually hurts Castillo's chance to get a call-up, since the Sox are gambling on him being good enough to stay (and play) on the 40 man for 3 more years.

 

I get the spirit of the rule, but Castillo looks to remain in purgatory.

 

 

Yeah, Castillo sort of got screwed twice, first by the old rule and now by the new one. They really have a dilemma on their hands if he continues to play well. Do they really want to pay him for 3 more years to play for the PawSox?

[moonslav59]

Yeah, Castillo sort of got screwed twice, first by the old rule and now by the new one. They really have a dilemma on their hands if he continues to play well. Do they really want to pay him for 3 more years to play for the PawSox?

 

They're paying him anyway. The tough call is the tax or no tax.

 

If we pay 20% next year, 30% in 2019 and 50% in 2020, that's about $10.4M in 3-year combined taxes.

 

Now, one could argue, if we would sign a guy like Castillo to be our 4th OF'er this winter for $11M/3, then it might be worth it, but if he flops, it would be like a double flop.

 

I think Brentz is more likely given a shot than Castillo. Plus, maybe we move Chavis to LF at some point. Barfield and Mars might surprise as well.

 

[BstHcpr]

They're paying him anyway. The tough call is the tax or no tax.

 

If we pay 20% next year, 30% in 2019 and 50% in 2020, that's about $10.4M in 3-year combined taxes.

 

Now, one could argue, if we would sign a guy like Castillo to be our 4th OF'er this winter for $11M/3, then it might be worth it, but if he flops, it would be like a double flop.

 

I think Brentz is more likely given a shot than Castillo. Plus, maybe we move Chavis to LF at some point. Barfield and Mars might surprise as well.

 

 

Red Sox got a free amnesty clause here. Unless he hits .400 in AAA, he's staying there.

[moonslav59]

Red Sox got a free amnesty clause here. Unless he hits .400 in AAA, he's staying there.

 

They still pay him an average $10.4M x 7 years.

 

The only "amnesty" is getting out of the tax.

[BstHcpr]

They still pay him an average $10.4M x 7 years.

 

The only "amnesty" is getting out of the tax.

 

I understand that. I just don't think the Red Sox are going to add $10.4 million to their payroll for a 4th OF.

[Larry Cook]

I understand that. I just don't think the Red Sox are going to add $10.4 million to their payroll for a 4th OF.

 

Could not agree more.

 

Plus I do not see any other teams even remotely interested in him,

[moonslav59]

Let's say we might sign a solid #4 OF'er to a contract worth $18M/3. Let's say we pay the luxury tax the next 3 years:

 

.20 x $6M = $1.2M

.30 x $6M = $1.8M

.50 x $6M = $3M

Total Tax: $6M

 

That deal would essentially amount to $24M/3.

 

If we brought up Castillo AND (big "and"), he could do as well as the free agent above, Castillo's "added cost" would just be $10.4M/3. That's a savings to Henry of $13+M.

 

Now, if Castillo bombs (again), Henry would lose the $10.4M and then have to go out and find another OF'er.

 

(Note: these are not the only two choices.)

 

[Jasonbay44]

Only way I see Castillo being called up is if we get killed by injuries. Its just not worth paying that money for a 4th OF that will make a minimal impact. Mookie, JBJ and Beni rarely need rest days, so it doesn't leave a lot of room for Castillo, or any other OF to get a whole lot of play time, look how few ABs Chris Young gets, and this is with him also getting AB's at DH spot.

[Larry Cook]

One more thought to consider:

 

Bradley is represented by boras and I am not sure it makes sense to sign him to a mega deal given how streaky a hitter he is. I get bradley's defense is elite, but you can shake any tree and a half dozen great glove guys fall out. Rarely does a bat fall out.

 

This offseason might be the pinnacle of Bradley's worth on the trade market, if he has a decent end to this season. Would desperate dave consider moving Bradley?

 

Benintendi can play center. Should be easier to find a left fielder with power than a fourth outfielder with power.

[BstHcpr]

Let's say we might sign a solid #4 OF'er to a contract worth $18M/3. Let's say we pay the luxury tax the next 3 years:

 

.20 x $6M = $1.2M

.30 x $6M = $1.8M

.50 x $6M = $3M

Total Tax: $6M

 

That deal would essentially amount to $24M/3.

 

If we brought up Castillo AND (big "and"), he could do as well as the free agent above, Castillo's "added cost" would just be $10.4M/3. That's a savings to Henry of $13+M.

 

Now, if Castillo bombs (again), Henry would lose the $10.4M and then have to go out and find another OF'er.

 

(Note: these are not the only two choices.)

 

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see Brentz as the 4th OF next year, and they keep Nunez as a Zobrist type utility player.

[Spudboy]

I was just doing a little reading about Castillo's situation. What I hadn't realized was that the new CBA basically prevented teams from doing what the Sox did with Castillo and Craig anymore, removing them from the 40-man to get them off the payroll for tax purposes. Which was the right thing to do, I would say.

 

Well I guess there is a silver lining among some dark clouds after all.

[moonslav59]

One more thought to consider:

 

Bradley is represented by boras and I am not sure it makes sense to sign him to a mega deal given how streaky a hitter he is. I get bradley's defense is elite, but you can shake any tree and a half dozen great glove guys fall out. Rarely does a bat fall out.

 

This offseason might be the pinnacle of Bradley's worth on the trade market, if he has a decent end to this season. Would desperate dave consider moving Bradley?

 

Benintendi can play center. Should be easier to find a left fielder with power than a fourth outfielder with power.

 

If it looks we can't keep Bogey AND JBJ, then one could see how Bora$$ could tip the scales to trading JBJ despite him having one more year of control.

 

It is easier to find a LF'er than a SS, but Beni's D worries me, and Bogey seems to be as streaky as JBJ....maybe more so.

[moonslav59]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Brentz as the 4th OF next year, and they keep Nunez as a Zobrist type utility player.

 

I could see it.

 

Leon

Nunez

Hernandez or Holt (Lin)

Brentz

 

[BstHcpr]

I could see it.

 

Leon

Nunez

Hernandez or Holt (Lin)

Brentz

 

 

Would you give him 3/33?

[Emp9]

One more thought to consider:

 

Bradley is represented by boras and I am not sure it makes sense to sign him to a mega deal given how streaky a hitter he is. I get bradley's defense is elite, but you can shake any tree and a half dozen great glove guys fall out. Rarely does a bat fall out.

 

This offseason might be the pinnacle of Bradley's worth on the trade market, if he has a decent end to this season. Would desperate dave consider moving Bradley?

 

Benintendi can play center. Should be easier to find a left fielder with power than a fourth outfielder with power.

 

I've been a Beni fanboy since he was in Single A and even I don't want him as our CF. I'd put Mookie in CF before I put Beni. JBJ is a must sign to me. A lot of us just wanted JBJ to hit .250 (some of us .240 even) and play the defense he's capable of playing. This season he's batting .250 off RH SP and .278 off LH SP. He seems to do better in away games than home games. I'm looking for JBJ to have a good end of August and better Sept. which he's done before. I also don't want to hear all the crying when/if we don't have his defense anymore and he's playing for another team. i hope we can extend him to something reasonable when the time comes.

[Nick]

I'm going to take Moon's approach to 2018.

 

Just as he projected full year of Beni for 2017, I'm going to project full year impact of Devers. That alone should improve our offense for 2018. He can't do any worse than what we did early this year at 3B. Plus I can see few players having a bounce back year. Betts, Xander and JBJ can have better year in 2018 (assuming they don't go nuts over last 40 games this year).

 

By signing Moreland, we were able to leave enough cap space to add Nunez. We don't have to take same approach for 2018. We can blow past the tax limit.

 

Getting everyone healthy would go long ways in improving our outlook.

[oldtimer]

Would you give him 3/33?

 

I liked Hernandez a lot too but he has been injured and would have to make a comeback, also he has never shown a lot of power. On the other hand, Lin seems to have a good plate approach, is fast and flexible in the infield and would be a fill-in tomorrow. I hope he comes up in Sept and gets a chance. Holt is experienced but not the player we need going forward.

[oldtimer]

I'm going to take Moon's approach to 2018.

 

Just as he projected full year of Beni for 2017, I'm going to project full year impact of Devers. That alone should improve our offense for 2018. He can't do any worse than what we did early this year at 3B. Plus I can see few players having a bounce back year. Betts, Xander and JBJ can have better year in 2018 (assuming they don't go nuts over last 40 games this year).

 

By signing Moreland, we were able to leave enough cap space to add Nunez. We don't have to take same approach for 2018. We can blow past the tax limit.

 

Getting everyone healthy would go long ways in improving our outlook.

 

Credit our brain trust with holding Devers back and watching the fiasco at 3rd base playout. Clearly we gave games away while the FO sat and watched.

[Slasher9]

I've been a Beni fanboy since he was in Single A and even I don't want him as our CF. I'd put Mookie in CF before I put Beni. JBJ is a must sign to me. A lot of us just wanted JBJ to hit .250 (some of us .240 even) and play the defense he's capable of playing. This season he's batting .250 off RH SP and .278 off LH SP. He seems to do better in away games than home games. I'm looking for JBJ to have a good end of August and better Sept. which he's done before. I also don't want to hear all the crying when/if we don't have his defense anymore and he's playing for another team. i hope we can extend him to something reasonable when the time comes.

i love this post.

[moonslav59]

Credit our brain trust with holding Devers back and watching the fiasco at 3rd base playout. Clearly we gave games away while the FO sat and watched.

 

...and if we called up Devers too early and he flopped then where would we be now?