A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[Kimmi]

Not me. Not Jacoby. Not ever for that amount. Not at any age.

 

I wanted him back (again, emotional attachment) but I would never pay what the Yankees paid for him.

[Nick]

Hum...maybe I was wrong about Beni's power. Edited August 12, 2017 by Nick

[sk7326]

To me, 2013 was one of the most obvious outlier seasons since Brady Anderson's 51 HR year.

 

The fact that we had JBJ was just a minor consideration for me. I don't want to start a JE bashing post, but his speed was a big part of his offense and defense, and players like him rarely age well. Jacoby gave us a lot of value over his time with us, but he only hit exceptionally well one year. Throw that year out and his numbers with us were not even top 5 on his own team.

 

I was glad we did not re-sign him, and at the time, I said, "I wouldn't have paid him half of what the Yanks gave him." I'm not sue he'll even lived up to that amount. I was even happier to see the Yanks were the the team to waste all that money on him.

 

 

It was his 2nd outstanding season in 3. He hit really well in 2013 - just without the homeruns. And was a plus centerfielder. I enjoy the inconsistent application of shortstop standards to center field, a premium defensive position.

[moonslav59]

Hosmer is far from perfect. In two of the last five seasons, his OPS+ hovered around 100. In three of the last five seasons, his OPS+ hovered around 120-125. If we get the latter, we will be happy, but I suppose the former could easily occur.

 

The Red Sox would save a lot of money by going with Moreland for one year and then Chavis beginning in 2019 but it is impossible to know their plans with Chavis. What other options are there? I don't see Travis as much of an option--if he can't hit in AAA, he likely won't hit in the major leagues.

 

I don't like Moreland all that much. There are some other low level/mid range guys out there beside him.

 

I think we go for a big bat, but it might have to be by trade.

[moonslav59]

I also think Hanley will be with us full time next year. I would imagine the team will do its best to keep him at DH as opposed to playing 1B.

 

I think we'll get Duda or Hosmer, but we'll want to go as short range as possible. I think that means Duda.

[moonslav59]

It was his 2nd outstanding season in 3. He hit really well in 2013 - just without the homeruns. And was a plus centerfielder. I enjoy the inconsistent application of shortstop standards to center field, a premium defensive position.

 

.781 is not "outstanding".

 

I don't think Jacoby was ever a great defender. His speed made up for slow starts, bad routes and other mistakes. The metrics showed he was pretty good on D, but I always felt like once his speed fell off a little, so would his D. He also had a noddle arm, and in Fenway Park, that's a big disadvantage. Yes, CF is an important defensive position, but it's not like SS.

 

Other than 2011, he never had an OPS above .781. He was only over .770 twice in his 5 seasons with 300+ PAs. He was under .730 in 2 of his 5 seasons.

 

He had over 325 PAs in only 4 of his last 6 seasons in Boston. He was about at .750 before 2011 and .750 for the two seasons after 2011 with Boston. You don't pay .750 that kind of money.

 

Warning signs abounded.

 

Edited August 13, 2017 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

We now have a new OPS leader (after today):

80+ PAs

.807 Beni

.805 Betts

.784 Pedey

.780 HRam

.756 JBJ

.751 Young

.749 Moreland

.730 Bogey

.700 Vaz

.622 Pablo

.576 Marrero

.558 Rutledge

.523 Holt

.681 Leon

______________________

 

1.179 Nunez with BOS (57 PAs before today)/ .811 Nunez (2 teams after today))

.938 Devers (61 PAs after today)

 

[moonslav59]

Swihart is now playing 1B in the GCL.

 

I wish him luck at his new position.

[Spudboy]

Swihart is now playing 1B in the GCL.

 

I wish him luck at his new position.

 

I have been suggesting that or to 3rd base for three years.

 

You can't waste that athleticism and bat on a project catcher.

 

I hope he is healthy soon. I doubt that he will be.

[moonslav59]

I think we'll get Duda or Hosmer, but we'll want to go as short range as possible. I think that means Duda.

 

Maybe we can find a way to sign Duda and Nunez.

 

 

1. Pedey 2B

2. Beni LF

3. Duda 1B

4. Betts RF

5. HRam DH

6. Devers 3B

7. JBJ CF v R/ Bogey SS v L

8. Bogey SS v R/ JBJ CF v L

9. Vaz C

 

Bench:

Nunez can play 3B, SS, 2B, LF, DH and probably get 450+ PAs with no significant injuries to anyone. Since he can play LF, he can play anytime we rest JBJ or Betts due to Beni's ability to slide to another OF position. When Duda needs a rest at 1B, HRam can play 1B as Nunez DHs. Essentially, Nunez can play, if any player, except catcher is rsted or injured.

Leon is the back-up catcher

Holt, Hernandez, Lin and marrero can fight for the utility IF position, but Holt might get the nod due to his ability to play OF and 1B.

 

SP1 Sale

SP2 Price

SP3 Pom

SP4 Porcello

SP5 ERod

SP6 Wright (long relief)

 

RP1 Kimbrel

RP2 Smith

RP3 Thornburg

RP4 Kelly

RP5 Barnes

RP6 Hembree (out of options)

 

AAA:

SP- Johnson, Beeks, Velazquez, Haley, Elias, Owens

RP- Workman, R Ross, R Scott, Maddox, Taylor, Martin, Cosart, N Ramirez

C- Romanski, Swihart? (D Butler re-signed?)

1B- S Travis, M Chavis, Swihart (Ockimey)

2B- Hernandez

3B- Marrero

SS- Lin

LF- D Mars/ Brentz? (minor league FA)

CF- Castillo

RF- A Tavarez

DH- J Barfield, J Witte

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

I have been suggesting that or to 3rd base for three years.

 

You can't waste that athleticism and bat on a project catcher.

 

I hope he is healthy soon. I doubt that he will be.

 

I've been suggesting 1B or 3B for a long time, too.

 

Maybe his bat will never reach what some of us hoped it would, but I still think he has a chance at making it at 1B. If he can also provide the ability to be a third string catcher, he'd open up a lot of PH opportunities late in games for our relatively poor hitting catching tandem.

 

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Hosmer has never slugged .500 once in his career. Not a solution to Red Sox lack of power. Let someone else pay him $100 million.

 

Bst, what would you do at 1b next year? Moreland is a free agent.

 

Nietzsche: I like Duda but I'm skeptical the Red Sox like him. (1) They had a chance to acquire him and didn't. (2) They might not like his defense at 1b; and if they don't like his defense at 1b, there is no room for him on the 2018 team. But if the Red Sox like his defense, I would be happy to see his bat added to the lineup--I wanted to trade for him at the deadline. In your 2018 plan, does Hanley's option vest?

 

The other complication, of course, is Pedroia's knee. Will he need at-bats in the DH spot? But Nunez and M.Hernandez seem like very good back up plans and using Pedroia at DH from time to time is one way to keep Hanley's option from vesting.

Edited August 13, 2017 by Fan_since_Boggs

[BstHcpr]

I wouldn't hate adding Logan Morrison on something like 2/20

[cp176]

I have been suggesting that or to 3rd base for three years.

 

You can't waste that athleticism and bat on a project catcher.

 

I hope he is healthy soon. I doubt that he will be.

 

You have been a steadfast supporter of Swihart's from the beginning. More so than any other poster on here that I have read. Many of us have recognized his athleticism for sure but on the same hand some of us - me included- felt that his greatest value was as a trade chip going forward. He has been beset by injury and that is sad. I would love nothing more than to see him get healthy, come back and play for this team, proving almost all of us wrong. People with his athletic attributes just don't come along everyday.

[Emp9]

Swihart is now playing 1B in the GCL.

 

I wish him luck at his new position.

 

Catching fulltime too demanding on that ankle. He always had a nice contact swing with double-triple power. Maybe 1B can let him concentrate on developing a little more HR power? Or just concentrate more on hitting, period. I wish him luck as well. He's an all around good athlete. Could be a blessing in disguise.

[Bellhorn04]

I have been suggesting that or to 3rd base for three years.

 

You can't waste that athleticism and bat on a project catcher.

 

I hope he is healthy soon. I doubt that he will be.

 

Here's hoping for the best for your boy, Spud.

[moonslav59]

Nietzsche: I like Duda but I'm skeptical the Red Sox like him. (1) They had a chance to acquire him and didn't.

 

We have Moreland, so that's why we passed on Duda. We also wanted to reset the luxury tax to zero.

 

(2) They might not like his defense at 1b; and if they don't like his defense at 1b, there is no room for him on the 2018 team. But if the Red Sox like his defense, I would be happy to see his bat added to the lineup--I wanted to trade for him at the deadline.

 

They're probably not happy with HRam's D at 1B either, and will look to lessen HRam's chances of injury next year by DH'ing him as much as possible.

 

In your 2018 plan, does Hanley's option vest?

 

In theory, I hope the hell not, but I doubt we intentionally deny it from him. He may get hurt on his own and miss enough time. One reason I'd prefer to get a big bat at 1B and not some where else.

 

The other complication, of course, is Pedroia's knee. Will he need at-bats in the DH spot? But Nunez and M.Hernandez seem like very good back up plans and using Pedroia at DH from time to time is one way to keep Hanley's option from vesting.

 

If Pedey has to DH a lot next year, and we know that this winter, then Duda would be a waste of money, assuming HRam will still be here. If Pedey DH's then HRam plays 1B.

 

Maybe we can trade HRam and pay $7-10M of his contract. That would allow us to sign Duda and Nunez and stay under the $20M over extra penalty limit. Nunez could play 2B and Duda (or Hosmer) 1B.

 

[moonslav59]

I wouldn't hate adding Logan Morrison on something like 2/20

 

I'm worried this is a one year wonder.

[moonslav59]

Catching fulltime too demanding on that ankle. He always had a nice contact swing with double-triple power. Maybe 1B can let him concentrate on developing a little more HR power? Or just concentrate more on hitting, period. I wish him luck as well. He's an all around good athlete. Could be a blessing in disguise.

 

I'm hopeful. I'm not sure he'd have ever gotten good enough on D to satisfy me, so maybe the injury hurried along what I always thought would happen anyways.

[sk7326]

.781 is not "outstanding".

 

I don't think Jacoby was ever a great defender. His speed made up for slow starts, bad routes and other mistakes. The metrics showed he was pretty good on D, but I always felt like once his speed fell off a little, so would his D. He also had a noddle arm, and in Fenway Park, that's a big disadvantage. Yes, CF is an important defensive position, but it's not like SS.

 

Other than 2011, he never had an OPS above .781. He was only over .770 twice in his 5 seasons with 300+ PAs. He was under .730 in 2 of his 5 seasons.

 

He had over 325 PAs in only 4 of his last 6 seasons in Boston. He was about at .750 before 2011 and .750 for the two seasons after 2011 with Boston. You don't pay .750 that kind of money.

 

Warning signs abounded.

 

 

.355 OBP with a 112 RC+ ... (insert OPS flaws here) and plus defense (an area he legitimately improved).

 

The warning sounds abounded with injury history and age ... but the 2013 version of Ellsbury was one of the best outfielders in the league.

[sk7326]

Hosmer has never slugged .500 once in his career. Not a solution to Red Sox lack of power. Let someone else pay him $100 million.

 

The idea is that nobody is going to pay him $100M. Look at what happened to Encarnacion - industry is getting smarter on that thing. But if you can get Hosmer for $12M-$15M a year, it is an interesting idea, and has more ceiling than say Moreland.

[sk7326]

I have been suggesting that or to 3rd base for three years.

 

You can't waste that athleticism and bat on a project catcher.

 

I hope he is healthy soon. I doubt that he will be.

 

He caught in high school too but not full time. You had a potential Buster Posey sort of talent - it was worth looking into. Sadly, yeah the ankle can't do it ... but the bat and approach look big league ready. Maybe not 25 HR but solid on-base and possibly decent power. He is definitely worth looking at for 1B.

[BstHcpr]

The idea is that nobody is going to pay him $100M. Look at what happened to Encarnacion - industry is getting smarter on that thing. But if you can get Hosmer for $12M-$15M a year, it is an interesting idea, and has more ceiling than say Moreland.

 

I can see someone going 5/90, because of his age.

[moonslav59]

.355 OBP with a 112 RC+ ... (insert OPS flaws here) and plus defense (an area he legitimately improved).

 

The warning sounds abounded with injury history and age ... but the 2013 version of Ellsbury was one of the best outfielders in the league.

 

2013 was good or even pretty good not "outstanding".

 

You cite his 112+ wRC+. That was 7th best on the team in 2013. Even Salty was better at 116. (He was barely our 3rd best OF'er in 2013 by xRC+: Nava 127, Vic 119, JE 112, Gomes 108.)

 

Yes, a .355 OBP is pretty good. It's not great for a lead off hitter. .355 placed him 13th out of 50 among fellow OF'ers that year. Nava was .385 and Vic was close at .351.

 

How is it "outstanding" to finish with the 39th best OF wRC+ out of 110 oF'ers with 300+ PAS in 2013? He placed 27th out of 50 OF'ers with 500+ PAs in 2013. You're choosing this as a season to justify greatness?

 

OK-ok, granted he had the 5th best OF WAR in 2013. He's much better than OPS or wRC+ indicate, but he wasn't worth close to that money based on his overall play from 2007-2013.

 

Of course the SBs and plus defense made him better than his wRC+ indicated, but he looked to be barely worth half of what the Yanks ended up paying him.

 

From 2008 to 2013 (6 seasons), the Sox had 56 instances with a player getting more than 300 PAs. Here's where Jacoby's seasons ranked:

 

#6 2011 (150) A fantastic season!

#31 2013 (112) Tied with Scutaro's 2011 season

#41 2009 (98) Worse than DMac's 2010 season

#47 2008 (91) Below two of Salty's seasons

#49 2012 (84) Worse than Lugo's 2008 season and barely better than CC's 2011 season (83) where everyone was screaming, "HORRIBLR SIGNING!".

 

Sorry, I wasn't buying it back then, and I'm not buying it now.

 

2007-2013 combined (Sample size: 26 players with 500+ PAs with the Sox)

 

143 Ortiz

140 Beltre

138 AGon

137 Youk

134 J Bay

132 Manny

128 Napoli

127 VMArt

120 Pedey

119 Vic

116 JD Drew

114 Nava

114 C Ross

109 Lowell

109 Ellsbury (The guy barely beat our Stephen freakin' Drew and Jarrod Salt-a-la-caca!

108 S Drew

103 Salty

 

I was almost as thrilled we didn't sign Ellsbury as I was when we traded for...

 

Chris Freakin' Sale!

 

 

 

[Nick]

It would be nice to add a rookie every year....

 

2017 Benitendi

2018 Devers

 

Is Travis still in our plans to start 1B for next year?

[moonslav59]

I can see someone going 5/90, because of his age.

 

He's half the offensive player EE is.

[moonslav59]

It would be nice to add a rookie every year....

 

2017 Benitendi

2018 Devers

 

Is Travis still in our plans to start 1B for next year?

 

Maybe, but I doubt Sox brass makes him the sole choice.

 

Our biggest need appears to be a big bat with power. 1B is the best position to find power at a relatively cheap cost.

 

I doubt Travis will win the job.

[Nick]

Maybe, but I doubt Sox brass makes him the sole choice.

 

Our biggest need appears to be a big bat with power. 1B is the best position to find power at a relatively cheap cost.

 

I doubt Travis will win the job.

 

so you've changed your views on him slightly because rest of team lack power? I get it. I want power from DH and corner positions.

[BstHcpr]

 

Of course the SBs and plus defense made him better than his wRC+ indicated, but he looked to be barely worth half of what the Yanks ended up paying him.

 

It made him a lot better than his wRC+ indicated. 112 wRC+ with plus speed and defense is an outstanding player to have.

[BstHcpr]

He's half the offensive player EE is.

 

Yeah, five years ago. Encarnacion didn't break out until he was in his late 20's, and signed with the Guardians as a 34 year old. Hosmer is going to be 27. Someone is going to talk themselves into getting him a long-term contract.