A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[mvp 78]

I'm with MVP on this....There aren't many teams willing to give us much for taking over Dustin's remaining 4 years. He's Pedestrinisque. Only spoiled Sox fans think he's a bargain.

 

Red Sox Pedroia, Dusti $15,125,000

Yankees Castro, Starlin $9,857,143

Rays Miller, Brad $3,575,000

Orioles Schoop, Jonathan $3,475,000

 

Altuve is making $4.5M this year and has club options for 2018 and 2019 at $6M and $6.5M. Now that's a home team discount.

 

If he repeats his 2017 performance for the rest of his contract, I don't think there's much reason to be upset about the $$$ he gets. I just don't think it's really a "hometown discount."

[sk7326]

I'm with MVP on this....There aren't many teams willing to give us much for taking over Dustin's remaining 4 years. He's Pedestrinisque. Only spoiled Sox fans think he's a bargain.

 

Red Sox Pedroia, Dusti $15,125,000

Yankees Castro, Starlin $9,857,143

Rays Miller, Brad $3,575,000

Orioles Schoop, Jonathan $3,475,000

 

Altuve is making $4.5M this year and has club options for 2018 and 2019 at $6M and $6.5M. Now that's a home team discount.

 

Over the life of the contract it has been a significant win ... now it's more neutral. Pedroia was a 5 win player last year, one of the best infielders in the league - which in isolation is well well worth that salary. It's life with a massive contract - the early parts pay for the late ones.

 

Altuve did not have FA rights when he signed his deal - you EXPECT those to be discounts.

[moonslav59]

Doesn't mean you couldn't find a cheaper alternative that would provide similar production and better leadership.

 

True, but I'm glad we signed him. His defense alone has made him a high plus for the team.

 

He may decline quickly or start getting hurt even more often, but as of now, I'm glad he'e here.

[Nick]

Over the life of the contract it has been a significant win ... now it's more neutral. Pedroia was a 5 win player last year, one of the best infielders in the league - which in isolation is well well worth that salary. It's life with a massive contract - the early parts pay for the late ones.

 

Altuve did not have FA rights when he signed his deal - you EXPECT those to be discounts.

 

My point is is the incremental difference in performance for SS and 2B worth their contracts? I rather overspend on 1B, 3B, DH than on middle infielders. But that's just me.

 

My order of importance by positions, and therefore willing to pay top dollars

 

SP 1

SP 2

Closer

SP 3

LF/RF/3B/1B/DH....really doesn't matter in which order

CF/SS/2B

C

SP 4

SP 5

Relievers

 

You get 3 great starters and a lights out closer, then you have a winning team.

 

In theory, we should have 3 good starters in Sale, Price and Porcello and latter two are being paid as such. Having healthy Pom and E Rod as #4/#5 is a big plus for this ball club. I'm not sure too many clubs can match that.

 

Obviously Kimbrel as a closer was a good pickup.

 

We're weak at DH, 1B. Hanley and Moreland are just adequate at best. JBJ makes up for lack of power out of our LF position.

 

SS and 2B should be above average but at what cost as Xander becomes a FA?

 

We've received maxium value from our catching and relief corp.

Edited August 11, 2017 by Nick

[S5Dewey]

My point is is the incremental difference in performance for SS and 2B worth their contracts? I rather overspend on 1B, 3B, DH than on middle infielders. But that's just me.

 

My order of importance by positions, and therefore willing to pay top dollars

 

SP 1

SP 2

Closer

SP 3

LF/RF/3B/1B/DH....really doesn't matter in which order

CF/SS/2B

C

SP 4

SP 5

Relievers

 

You get 3 great starters and a lights out closer, then you have a winning team.

 

Oh...Nick, Nick, Nick..... :-(

 

It appears that you and I could have a long debate about the value of strong defense up the middle.

[Nick]

Oh...Nick, Nick, Nick..... :-(

 

It appears that you and I could have a long debate about the value of strong defense up the middle.

 

Oh I'm with you on strong defense, but are they rewarded? Not really. There are more good glove no hit players than good glove, good hitters at those defensive positions. We're pretty happy with our catching tandem. I doubt that they get a $20M year contract combined any time soon.

[BstHcpr]

I'm with MVP on this....There aren't many teams willing to give us much for taking over Dustin's remaining 4 years. He's Pedestrinisque. Only spoiled Sox fans think he's a bargain.

 

Red Sox Pedroia, Dusti $15,125,000

Yankees Castro, Starlin $9,857,143

Rays Miller, Brad $3,575,000

Orioles Schoop, Jonathan $3,475,000

 

Altuve is making $4.5M this year and has club options for 2018 and 2019 at $6M and $6.5M. Now that's a home team discount.

 

Players with completely different service times.

[S5Dewey]

Oh I'm with you on strong defense, but are they rewarded? Not really. There are more good glove no hit players than good glove, good hitters at those defensive positions. We're pretty happy with our catching tandem. I doubt that they get a $20M year contract combined any time soon.

 

Yep. I agree. Chicks dig the long ball for sure, and (unfortunately) stellar defense doesn't get the financial recognition it should. Have I said that before? LOL

[User Name]

Players with completely different service times.

 

I came here to post this. You are a good man.

[Emp9]

Oh I'm with you on strong defense, but are they rewarded? Not really. There are more good glove no hit players than good glove, good hitters at those defensive positions. We're pretty happy with our catching tandem. I doubt that they get a $20M year contract combined any time soon.

 

My point is is the incremental difference in performance for SS and 2B worth their contracts? I rather overspend on 1B, 3B, DH than on middle infielders. But that's just me.

 

I see what you're saying and I think teams that have the where-with-all do try to go with that formula. Bogey could be better defensively and Pedroia is usually money but his range to his right can be suspect at times (purely observational by me). Other than that, with JBJ and Vaz/Leon, I don't think the Sox are that far off up-the-middle defense-wise. I also think XB could be the most expendable after this season.

[moonslav59]

My point is is the incremental difference in performance for SS and 2B worth their contracts? I rather overspend on 1B, 3B, DH than on middle infielders. But that's just me.

 

I see what you're saying and I think teams that have the where-with-all do try to go with that formula. Bogey could be better defensively and Pedroia is usually money but his range to his right can be suspect at times (purely observational by me). Other than that, with JBJ and Vaz/Leon, I don't think the Sox are that far off up-the-middle defense-wise. I also think XB could be the most expendable after this season.

 

I've always valued SS defense more than most, and I was one who supported the Bogey to 3B/Iggy at SS idea, so I agree that Bogey seems to be the most expendable out of our players who will be seeing their sharp arb raises coming up.

[Emp9]

I've always valued SS defense more than most, and I was one who supported the Bogey to 3B/Iggy at SS idea, so I agree that Bogey seems to be the most expendable out of our players who will be seeing their sharp arb raises coming up.

 

You think we cld trade XB for some prospects (for Cliff reasons), upgrade SS defense, and upgrade 1B offense next season? Or, half way through next season?

[moonslav59]

You think we cld trade XB for some prospects (for Cliff reasons), upgrade SS defense, and upgrade 1B offense next season? Or, half way through next season?

 

We could, but trading Bogey will not save us a lot of money next year, so it wouldn't help us a whole lot financially.

 

The cost savings would be much larger in Bogey's last arb year and/or by not re-signing him.

 

We could just let him walk, get a comp pick, and used the money saved to help pay for Sale, Betts, Pom & JBJ.

[mvp 78]

We could, but trading Bogey will not save us a lot of money next year, so it wouldn't help us a whole lot financially.

 

The cost savings would be much larger in Bogey's last arb year and/or by not re-signing him.

 

We could just let him walk, get a comp pick, and used the money saved to help pay for Sale, Betts, Pom & JBJ.

 

If you trade him now, you can get better value than just a comp pick.

[moonslav59]

If you trade him now, you can get better value than just a comp pick.

 

Of course, but we'd lose his offense within the "window".

 

I'm not against the idea, but we are supposedly concentrating on improving the offense for the last 2 years of the window while staying within certain "internal" spending limits.

 

Replacing Bogey with Lin/Marrero and then upgrading 1B probably leaves us even on offense.

[User Name]

A good player is a good player is a good player. If you spend money on good players, you increase the odds of your team being good. Theo Epstein always said "The best way to build a competitive ballclub is to build a roster with above-average players at all possible positions". It's not where they spend the money (positions) but rather how (guys who can perform on both sides of the ball).

[sk7326]

Of course, but we'd lose his offense within the "window".

 

I'm not against the idea, but we are supposedly concentrating on improving the offense for the last 2 years of the window while staying within certain "internal" spending limits.

 

Replacing Bogey with Lin/Marrero and then upgrading 1B probably leaves us even on offense.

 

I floated this - and the logic is simple ... it's about your feelings about Bogaerts relative to the other 29 teams.

 

Bogaerts is a good player - and has had a couple of "very good player" seasons recently. He is still young with high likelihood of improving. He will probably never be great defensively - but he is clearly fine. I don't want to trade him. However, his FA is the soonest - and if the team's impression of him is that he might be a 2-3 win player going forward ... and never have consistent power, say ... does it make sense to turn him around for a big haul while a big haul is possible. (say with 2 years of control left) This assumes you can staff SS at an above average level while this goes on ...

 

If you think there is more there and he will figure it out - which is completely reasonable, and I am not sure I don't believe it myself - then there might not be a good match deal-wise.

 

Much of this logic applies to Bradley too - at a smaller scale.

[moonslav59]

I floated this - and the logic is simple ... it's about your feelings about Bogaerts relative to the other 29 teams.

 

Bogaerts is a good player - and has had a couple of "very good player" seasons recently. He is still young with high likelihood of improving. He will probably never be great defensively - but he is clearly fine. I don't want to trade him. However, his FA is the soonest - and if the team's impression of him is that he might be a 2-3 win player going forward ... and never have consistent power, say ... does it make sense to turn him around for a big haul while a big haul is possible. (say with 2 years of control left) This assumes you can staff SS at an above average level while this goes on ...

 

If you think there is more there and he will figure it out - which is completely reasonable, and I am not sure I don't believe it myself - then there might not be a good match deal-wise.

 

Much of this logic applies to Bradley too - at a smaller scale.

 

I think it's easy to "stock" the SS position with a cheap plus defender, but we'd lose a lot on offense in an era where offense is exploding and the SS position is becoming a much better offensive position than when I first started following baseball.

 

I actually don't think Bogey is "fine" on defense and never did. I thought I saw some growth on defense a couple years back, but it seems he's leveled off. Some numbers even show regression.

 

I'd love to have a top defensive SS on this team. To me, it doesn't matter, if he can hit real well at all, but if he wasn't "black hole" I'd be very happy. Right now, I don't see that guy in our system. We went a long time before Bogey trying to find a SS who could give us stability for a long period. Bogey's okay on D, but he's been a pretty big plus on offense, when compared to other SSs. On an offense trying to adjust to the loss of Bogey, I'm not sure we are at the time to consider intentionally downgrading our offense at any position.

 

In an off year, Bogey is still the 9th best offensive SS in MLB (fangraphs) and is tied for 8th in SS WAR. Last year, he was 6th in SS WAR and 4th in Offense at SS. He was 2nd in WAR in 2015 and was the best offesnive SS in MLB.

 

I don't think Bogey is just incrementally better than the average SS in MLB. I hope his 1.5 year decline is not a thing to expect to continue, but it is worrisome, especially the no defensive growth part.

 

2015-2017 SS WAR (34 with 1000+ PAs)

14.0 Lindor

13.9 Seager

12.2 Correa

11.2 Crawford

11.2 Bogey

10.9 Simmons

 

#10 Segura 7.3

#15 Semien5.1

#20 Flores 3.4

#25 Miller 2.7

#30 A Escobar 1.4

 

Bogey has been 4th in SS offense at 30.4, and then there is a big drop off to #5 Nunez (18.8). The 17th SS (mean) is Simmons at -4.4. That's a huge loss in comparative SS offense, if we were to trade Bogey.

 

Now, some of these numbers are cumulative in nature, so here's some other SS data from 2015-2017 (34 SSs with 1000+ PAs)

 

Bogey ranks...

3rd in OBP at .351 (the mean is .317.)

11th in SLG at .427 (just above the mean of .413)

5th in OPS at .778 (The mean is .728)

7th wRC+ at 107 (The mean is 97)

 

FYI

Bogey places at #17 in UZR/150 at -1.3 during the same time period. (41 player sample size: SSs with 1000+ innings)

 

In short, I would not overpay to keep Bogey here like I would for Betts, Sale and JBJ, but i wouldn't look to trade him this winter just so we could afford a better 1Bman.

[mvp 78]

Of course, but we'd lose his offense within the "window".

 

I'm not against the idea, but we are supposedly concentrating on improving the offense for the last 2 years of the window while staying within certain "internal" spending limits.

 

Replacing Bogey with Lin/Marrero and then upgrading 1B probably leaves us even on offense.

 

There. Is. No. Window.

[moonslav59]

There. Is. No. Window.

 

I don't care if you believe in a "window" or not, but just look at the next 2 year time period where we have just about every key player under team control, but we have no big bat at 1B or DH. Chances are we will have to "live with" HRam at one position.

 

Most here think our biggest weakness or the thing that might "put us over the top" is to add a big bat- most likely at 1B or DH.

 

I don't see how we'd be helping our offense by getting a big bat at 1B and then going from a top 5 offensive SS to a bottom tier one. We might end up gaining slightly on offense, and if we improve greatly on SS defense, our overall team might be better, but we will not be solving the problem most feel we have: offense.

 

Like I said, I'd love to have a great defensive SS. I get my biggest thrill watching a great defensive play- not a grand slam. I've always been a huge supporter of defense up the middle. If I think the team can get better by trading Bogey, I'd be all for it. I just don't see how trading Bogey and then trying to make up for the loss on offense by then acquiring an even better 1Bman than we could have gotten without trading Bogey to more than make-up for the loss is a flawed plan.

 

Improving defense if fine by me. I think we can win without a great offense. We're winning now with great pitching and fielding and slightly better than an average offense. I can't see moving Bogey to 3B and Devers to 1B. I can't see moving a weak powered Bogey to 1B and bringing up Lin or signing Cozart is a good plan. Could signing Moustakas and moving Devers to 1B or just signing Duda be enough, and would it be possible financially under our "internal" budget limit?

 

I'm not sure these questions are easily answered by any of us.

 

[sk7326]

This is not college football - nobody has to graduate blah blah blah ... and it is fair game to question budget limits especially those times when management can whine about them (oh they would never do that)

 

Great defense at SS is awesome - but so is terrific offense. And the Red Sox run prevention has been excellent - their defense has been excellent ... Bogaerts has not been the anchor, but clearly it has not been an issue either. We know power is the last thing to show up often, and he has shown it. It's about whether you believe it's there - given his age, the odds that it clicks is very good. And even if it doesn't - he's a quality starter at a tough position to find them.

[Nick]

This is not college football - nobody has to graduate blah blah blah ... and it is fair game to question budget limits especially those times when management can whine about them (oh they would never do that)

 

Great defense at SS is awesome - but so is terrific offense. And the Red Sox run prevention has been excellent - their defense has been excellent ... Bogaerts has not been the anchor, but clearly it has not been an issue either. We know power is the last thing to show up often, and he has shown it. It's about whether you believe it's there - given his age, the odds that it clicks is very good. And even if it doesn't - he's a quality starter at a tough position to find them.

 

Geez, Xander is a pretty good shortstop. The question is what value does Red Sox place on him given that there are 'better' players on the team that they want to sign, Betts as an example.

 

Anyone here NOW thinks Jacoby was a good signing by the Yankees? $21M per year until 2020. Yikes

[moonslav59]

Brentz and Barfield with HRs tonight (Friday).

 

This is getting unbelievable.

[S5Dewey]

Geez, Xander is a pretty good shortstop. The question is what value does Red Sox place on him given that there are 'better' players on the team that they want to sign, Betts as an example.

 

Anyone here NOW thinks Jacoby was a good signing by the Yankees? $21M per year until 2020. Yikes

Better the Yankees than us!!

[moonslav59]

Brentz has 6 HRs in the last 10 games (36 ABs).

 

27 HRs in last 87 games(319 ABs)

 

[sk7326]

Geez, Xander is a pretty good shortstop. The question is what value does Red Sox place on him given that there are 'better' players on the team that they want to sign, Betts as an example.

 

Anyone here NOW thinks Jacoby was a good signing by the Yankees? $21M per year until 2020. Yikes

 

I don't think anybody thought we should have matched that. That signing had a lot of red flags. I am surprised Ellsbury has not taken advantage of the RF porch as much.

[moonslav59]

I don't think anybody thought we should have matched that. That signing had a lot of red flags. I am surprised Ellsbury has not taken advantage of the RF porch as much.

 

Pitchers pitch him differently than at Fenway.

 

I was against signing Ellsbury "for even half of what the Yanks signed him for".

 

He was something like our 6th or 7th best OPS guy the year before the signing.

[S5Dewey]

I'll admit that I wanted to sign him at the time, but not for what the Y's paid for him.

[moonslav59]

I'll admit that I wanted to sign him at the time, but not for what the Y's paid for him.

 

I wonder how close anyone else got to the Yankee offer and if the Sox were that team or close to the second highest bidder.

[bowman]

Brentz has to get a look..