The Window

[jacksonianmarch]

I have talked probably ad nauseum about the "window" for the sox. We all are in agreement that the sox are inside their window right now. I would assume that everyone feels the window will extend a few seasons. Here are a few reasons why the window looks to close in 2020. I am assuming the sox re-sign all their big producers

 

Craig Kimbrel becomes a FA after 2018. He is probably the best reliever in baseball right now. Re-signing him with likely start with Chapman money, which is $18 mil per season. Let's say the sox do that

 

Xander Bogaerts becomes a FA after 2019. He is intent on going year to year. Even with his power outage, he is on pace to set a high watermark in WAR at 5.4. If he continues producing at this level, and with Boras as his agent, there is no reason to think he cannot get $25 mil per annum on the open market. Per fangraphs projections, he has been worth nearly $70 mil the last 2 seasons and this yr he is on pace to be worth $40 mil. Now while I don't think that's reasonable in this market, I do think $25 mil per annum is about right

 

Jackie Bradley Jr. becomes a FA after 2019. He was worth $38.8 mil last yr and is on pace to repeat that this season. Once again, I think it is unlikely he sees that amount, but I think $22 mil per season on the open market is reasonable for a defensive whiz at a premium position who can hit for a mid .800s OPS with 20HR power

 

Chris Sale becomes a FA after 2019. He will turn 31 in ST in the first year of his new deal. He already took a discount. He isn't taking another one. With Price and Kershaw resetting the market north of $30 mil per annum, by 2020, we might be talking about $35-$40 mil. For this projection, lets use $35 mil per year

 

Mookie Betts becomes a FA after 2020. On his current pace, he is looking at an arb total above $22 mil for his final season of arb akin to Harper's deal for 2018. After 2020, he is looking at a deal akin to Harper's in FA which will clearly reset the market after 2018.

 

Benintendi will be in his first arb year and likely making $5 mil or so

 

David Price- $31 mil

Dustin Pedroia- $13 mil

Kimbrel- $18 mil

Bogaerts- $25 mil

Bradley- $22 mil

Sale- $35 mil

Betts- $22 mil

Beni- $5 mil

 

For 2020 alone, the salaries above total out at $171 mil with Betts and Beni looking at bigger money in 2021. By that point, Pedroia will be doing his Jeter lap and Price will likely be your #5 starter. By 2020, I believe the number is $210 million. If the sox want to keep the band together, they will have a mere $39 mil to fill out the rest of their pen aside from closer, 3 rotation slots from 2-4, C, 1B, 3B, and DH. I know the lux tax limit isn't really a limit, but Boston hasn't proven to be willing to shoot past that number aside from a few mil here and there. While I expect NY to be above that number by 2020, NY and LA have proven to not really care about lux tax when it comes to financing a winning team. Hence the window. It helps to have kids playing in those spots, but with the damage done to the farm by DD in going for it and the end of the round draftees the sox are looking to have due to their success, the likelihood of bringing in premium talent through the draft will be difficult. So that means filling the rest of your team out with free agents. They are expensive and typically older. You're looking at 4 position players, 3 starters and at least one higher priced reliever to tandem with Kimbrel, assuming nobody fades due to injury or ineffectiveness. It's a hell of a problem to have, having your core be young together, but it also leads to what NYY dealt with after 2000. Young stars got expensive, we picked later in rounds and didn't develop well and ended up having to fill our needs with high priced FAs. Payrolls bloated with diminishing returns. The money be damned approach extended our "window" really through 2012, but our special team from the 96-01 seasons were well past their primes or retired by then.

 

This brings me to the point about 3b and the need to maximize your success in your window. You've got 2 more years after this one assuming you re-sign Kimbrel. You don't waste 33% of your window because you're afraid to deal for the one or two critical needs your team has now.

[Nick]

Jackie Bradley Jr. becomes a FA after 2019. He was worth $38.8 mil last yr and is on pace to repeat that this season. Once again, I think it is unlikely he sees that amount, but I think $22 mil per season on the open market is reasonable for a defensive whiz at a premium position who can hit for a mid .800s OPS with 20HR power

 

Actually after 2020....He'll have 4 years of arbitration. But you're spot on.

 

On a side note, I read somewhere while back how much it's worth for a team like Yankees to make it to the post season. I saw a figure of about $50M in additional revenue for making it to the World Series. Something that Henry should think about. Not a sure thing but it certainly helps the bottom line.

Edited July 8, 2017 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Yes, a 3 to 4 year window.

 

It's not a one year window.

 

Do not trade prospects like Devers & Travis that are likely to be low cost high reward type players for 2 to 3 years of the 3 to 4 years in the window.

 

Consider trading others, but avoid desperation overpays.

 

We should be able to get by without having to add any outside FAs for the next 2 winters. That alone is significant.

 

The salary wall rises quickly for 2020. We can probably afford going over the limit in 2018, 2019 and maybe way over in 2020, but the penalties will be severe and possibly long lasting, if we go over the non-monetary penalty limit.

[mvp 78]

There is no window, only pessimism.

[moonslav59]

There is no window, only pessimism.

 

I'm highly optimistic about having a 4 year window.

 

I don't think we'll finish in last place year 5 or 6, but there will be severe challenges.

[mvp 78]

With this ownership group, there shouldn't be.

[mvp 78]

Sox are up by 4 games in July and people have boners for cliffs and windows.

[jacksonianmarch]

You're not getting it. The reason I bring this up isn't because I've got a boner for cliffs and windows. It's because you're within your window and addressing glaring needs shouldn't be pushed off because you "should be ok".

[Hugh2]

I get the window argument, and I'm even conversing about it on another thread now, and while it does concern me there is the reality that no one knows how the future will transpire.

 

Perhaps the Sox draft the next Mike Trout with their 30th pick in the draft next year. Maybe they go after Otani and he becomes the next Kershaw.

 

What I find concerning is when you look at the way this entire team is constructing you can pinpoint almost every player to a system that no longer exists (free agents aside). But again, everyone has to play by these rules and we don't have a crystal ball.

 

I do worry about the future, I'am a bit pessimistic but I think I'd like to consider it more of a curiosity as to what the Sox will do to keep pumping talent in the roster. I believe I still reserve the right to enjoy the team now as well.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm comfortable that Dombrowski is devoting a lot of thought to the 3B situation and will act wisely.

[moonslav59]

I'm comfortable that Dombrowski is devoting a lot of thought to the 3B situation and will act wisely.

 

I wonder how comfortable Tigers felt 3-4 years ago.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

There is definitely a three year window but what happens beyond that is impossible to know or predict. After three years, it may make sense for the Red Sox to engage in some kind of rebuild. Alternatively, if the Red Sox system can produce dominant starting pitching, there is no need for a rebuild. Pitchers like J.Groome and T.Houck will play an important role when it comes to the next phase. If Groome can reach his ceiling, the Red Sox will have an ace when Sale leaves via free agency. If the Red Sox develop starting pitching, they can always add offensive players via free agency. It really comes down to the kind of pitching the Red Sox will have 3 years from now.

 

I don't know if the Red Sox are ever going to pay J.Bradley over 20 million per year. He is an elite defender now, but he isn't going to sustain that level of defense as he gets older. His offense is inconsistent. If Bradley wants over 20 million, there is a good chance the Red Sox find another CF.

 

As far as 3b goes, the Red Sox don't necessarily need to trade for anyone--they have the best 3b prospect in the game producing a 900+ OPS in AA. Sure, they could trade for Frazier, but Frazier could go 0 for 30 in a playoff series. Devers could go 10 for 30 in the same playoff series with 3 HR. Who will be hot? Who will be cold? The decision is a bit of a crap shoot. But Devers is certainly good enough to justify NOT trading for a player like Frazier. They can go with the Lin/Marrero platoon, let Devers finish out the season in the minors, and then bring up Devers. There is no more risk in making this decision than trading for T.Frazier, who could go in a prolonged slump in October when the Red Sox need him most.

 

While the Red Sox have Devers waiting in the wings at 3b, I continue to believe the Red Sox should consider trading for another bat, a L.Duda or J.Bruce type. I don't have a lot of confidence in Hanley going forward. Even if Hanley gets hot, the Red Sox might want to take some at-bats away from Moreland, who isn't exactly a stud offensive player.

Edited July 9, 2017 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

JBj will reach free agency a bit older than our other young stars, but he should be worth a hefty salary.

 

He may be a bit more inconsistent than others, but he's been between .830 and .855 for three straight years (including 2017). That's actually more consistent than just about anyone else on the Sox.

 

JBJ ranks 37th in MLB in OPS since 2015 at .839.

He's 37th in wOBA (.356) which is within .001 of Beltre and Machado.

 

He's worth a mega deal based on just his offense.

 

[mvp 78]

You're not getting it. The reason I bring this up isn't because I've got a boner for cliffs and windows. It's because you're within your window and addressing glaring needs shouldn't be pushed off because you "should be ok".

 

Fine. "Priapism"

[jacksonianmarch]

Pretty sure you don't know the first thing about the word you just typed

[Jack Flap]

Sox are up by 4 games in July and people have boners for cliffs and windows.

 

Lol.

[mvp 78]

Pretty sure you don't know the first thing about the word you just typed

 

I'm pretty sure you only made this post because the Yanks are coming back to earth and the only negativity you can feed into this board is the constant drumbeats surrounding a mythical window that is 3-4 years away. Whenever there is something negative, you're surely one of the first people posting about it (i.e. the reason you always are so quick in posting DL stints).

[jacksonianmarch]

I made this post to show why your team shouldn't stand pat on your weaknesses. Your window is three years and wasting one with an auto out at a power position is assinine

[Nick]

I made this post to show why your team shouldn't stand pat on your weaknesses. Your window is three years and wasting one with an auto out at a power position is assinine

 

I agree with you completely. This team needs help. Try Devers. If he fails go get another player. Our pitching is coming around. Why waste it?

 

Regarding Devers. I'm reminded of a line from Animal House. "Grab a brew. Don't cost nothing." My exact sentiment on Devers.

Edited July 9, 2017 by Nick

[jacksonianmarch]

You can have Devers plus a veteran. Get the vet for now. If Devers outplays him, then bonus. If you don't get a vet and Devers struggles on promotion, then you're stuck

[S5Dewey]

I made this post to show why your team shouldn't stand pat on your weaknesses. Your window is three years and wasting one with an auto out at a power position is assinine

 

I hear where you're coming from and if making the playoffs assured a WSC I'd be agreeing with you. However, that 3-4 year window is exactly that, 3-4 years, and I don't want to jeopardize years 2-4 by putting too many eggs in the 2017 basket with 2018-2020 still ahead of us.

 

I don't totally disagree with your saying that the team shouldn't stand pat with its weaknesses, but something every team should have learned by now is that there are no sure things in the playoffs. We're going to be in 1st place at the ASB in spite of those weaknesses and IMO there's no rush to make a trade. If we could win the AL East with what we've got I'll take my chances then rather than trade away Devers, etc.

[jacksonianmarch]

Dewey, if you deal Devers, you better get an all-star back. You can get upgrades for nothing but cash if you wanted to.

[S5Dewey]

Dewey, if you deal Devers, you better get an all-star back. You can get upgrades for nothing but cash if you wanted to.

 

I'm not giving up Devers for an all-star. JH's budget for the upcoming years wouldn't allow that. It would be going too "All-In" this year for my liking. The ONLY way I'd consider trading Devers would be for a young - and underpaid - promising 3B.... and we've already got one of those!

 

And I'm not at all certain that we could get upgrades for 'nothing but cash'. Other GM's know the situation the Sox are in and they're not going to give up quality players for cash. They're going to want promising prospects or full time players. They're not in business to do favors for the Boston Red Sox.

[Maxbialystock]

There is no window, only pessimism.

 

Could not agree more.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm not giving up Devers for an all-star. JH's budget for the upcoming years wouldn't allow that. It would be going too "All-In" this year for my liking. The ONLY way I'd consider trading Devers would be for a young - and underpaid - promising 3B.... and we've already got one of those!

 

And I'm not at all certain that we could get upgrades for 'nothing but cash'. Other GM's know the situation the Sox are in and they're not going to give up quality players for cash. They're going to want promising prospects or full time players. They're not in business to do favors for the Boston Red Sox.

 

I have been touting Prado on here, but I guarantee the Marlins would give him away if someone took his contract

[Bellhorn04]

Prado would be an upgrade but he's not exactly a power bat.

[Hugh2]

Could not agree more.

 

Yes but sometimes that pessimism is 100% justified.

 

For example, Phillies fans have every reason to feel pessimistic about their chances of making the post season this year.

[jacksonianmarch]

Prado would be an upgrade but he's not exactly a power bat.

 

You need a bat. The production from 3b is abhorrent. If Prado hits 5HRs and has a mid .700s OPS, he would be a massive upgrade

[Hugh2]

I think Devers is in line for a promotion any day now. If he is mashing it by July 30th and there's no good values out there for DD I think he will give the kid a chance, otherwise, I think they will look for an upgrade at 3B.

[jacksonianmarch]

They should promote him to Pawtucket soon before he sees the Fens