Should Jackie Bradley Jr be traded?

[moonslav59]

I only brought up the hypothetical, because getting JD was what started this whole trade JBJ crap.

 

JD is having a great year and will likely ave more clout when his opt out comes due. I seriously doubt he makes any demands like I hypothesized.

 

Maybe a better hypothetical might be, if Devers proves he can hit very well but can only DH, because he continues to do poorly on defense. I doubt we'd trade Devers to keep JD for one more year before his next opt out.

 

I'm not for trading JBJ and never have been, but I could see it happening.

 

[cp176]

See you JDM. Thanks for being part of getting this years ring.

 

Oh good one Slash! Nice one.

[cp176]

Continuing the threat that refuses do die but should.....

 

That^^ is an interesting question.

 

On the one hand we have JD Martinez who's an average OF'er at best and most of his WAR comes from his offense. In fact, his dWAR has been a consistently negative value. Over the past five years he has a cumulative WAR of 15.9, with over 1/3 of it coming from the career year he's having in 2018.

 

OTOH we have Jackie Bradley Jr. who's one of the best defensive CF'ers in the AL. However, most of JBJ's WAR has come from his offense (and IMO most people think is an aberration.) His cumulative WAR over the past five years is 12.4.

 

When we consider the two 5-year WARs and allow for a 17% "variability" We find that JDM's 5-year range of WAR is between 13.2 - 18.6 and JBJ's is between 10.1 - 14.5. Since there is overlap between 13.2 - 14.5 they could be the same player although it's reasonable to assume that JDM is the slightly better player (if you ignore the fact that JBJ's WAR is questionable because of the oWAR/dWAR thing) because his range is higher.

 

The big equalizer going forward is that JBJ is 28 years old and making $6.100,000 this year and JDM is 31 and making $23.750,000 this year.

 

So the question is, if you can only keep one of them going forward.... which one do you keep? The younger one who plays better defense or the older one who's offense is better but makes almost 4x as much? And to add yet another wrinkle, if you believe that JBJ has 'found himself' offensively this year what's the REAL difference in their offense? And how much is JBJ's defense REALLY worth? Is it worth almost 4x as much to keep JDM?

 

You see this is exactly why I think that a constant barrage empowering stat geeks ( whoever the f*** they might be ) is not only overblown but foolish at best. The Red Sox likely will never have to worry about being in a situation like this so even discussing a topic like this is a major league fool's errand. I get the fact that you are a JBJ super fan. Many of us are just not to the same extent. All of a sudden out of virtually nowhere we are now discussing the likelihood of keeping JBJ over a top of the line MVP candidate - ludicrous. If people want to use all of the advanced stats in the universe to in some weird way justify never signing anyone with this person's unbelievable talent, so be it. Oh my goodness - He is over 30 - average at best in the field - makes too much money - etc. etc. etc. I'm really happy that our ownership and GM do not adhere to some of the most totally f***ed up theories that I have heard in my lifetime. I'm also really glad that I am a simple average fan and a member of a vast majority who really could care less about the minutia represented by the advanced stat deluge.

[Bellhorn04]

I only brought up the hypothetical, because getting JD was what started this whole trade JBJ crap.

 

 

No, this thread was started early in the 2017 season.

[S5Dewey]

You see this is exactly why I think that a constant barrage empowering stat geeks ( whoever the f*** they might be ) is not only overblown but foolish at best. The Red Sox likely will never have to worry about being in a situation like this so even discussing a topic like this is a major league fool's errand. I get the fact that you are a JBJ super fan. Many of us are just not to the same extent. All of a sudden out of virtually nowhere we are now discussing the likelihood of keeping JBJ over a top of the line MVP candidate - ludicrous. If people want to use all of the advanced stats in the universe to in some weird way justify never signing anyone with this person's unbelievable talent, so be it. Oh my goodness - He is over 30 - average at best in the field - makes too much money - etc. etc. etc. I'm really happy that our ownership and GM do not adhere to some of the most totally f***ed up theories that I have heard in my lifetime. I'm also really glad that I am a simple average fan and a member of a vast majority who really could care less about the minutia represented by the advanced stat deluge.

 

Easy there Big Guy. I'm just playing their game and using their numbers to play it.

 

JBJ's $6.1MM is chicken feed in today's market and DD likes him in CF. The only way he's going anyplace is if the FO feels that they're getting more value from whomever they receive in a trade. That's a very high bar to reach when one thinks about what JBJ provides for $6.1M.

[Bellhorn04]

When we consider the two 5-year WARs and allow for a 17% "variability" We find that JDM's 5-year range of WAR is between 13.2 - 18.6 and JBJ's is between 10.1 - 14.5. Since there is overlap between 13.2 - 14.5 they could be the same player although it's reasonable to assume that JDM is the slightly better player (if you ignore the fact that JBJ's WAR is questionable because of the oWAR/dWAR thing) because his range is higher.

 

The big equalizer going forward is that JBJ is 28 years old and making $6.100,000 this year and JDM is 31 and making $23.750,000 this year.

 

So the question is, if you can only keep one of them going forward.... which one do you keep? The younger one who plays better defense or the older one who's offense is better but makes almost 4x as much? And to add yet another wrinkle, if you believe that JBJ has 'found himself' offensively this year what's the REAL difference in their offense? And how much is JBJ's defense REALLY worth? Is it worth almost 4x as much to keep JDM?

 

But the question is even more difficult than you're making it.

 

First of all, I don't think using the last 5 years is a generally accepted methodology-maybe a weighted 3 years.

 

Secondly, JBJ is likely to get a raise next year and another one in 2020, so you have to factor that in.

[OH FOY]

Keep it simple between his salary, which will go up a bit this year, I predict 10M, which is not bad. The main thing most Sox Fans, should know there is nothing in Triple AAA, or Double AA close to JBJ's Major League talent. Nothing. You have to keep him. I went to both PawSox games this weekend, there is nothing there.

You weaken the team by moving Benni to CF, and JDM to Left on a steady basis. When you make a move like JBJ, you got to have something in the Minors, that should be ready for the Majors. This Thread is silly now.

Edited September 4, 2018 by OH FOY!

[S5Dewey]

But the question is even more difficult than you're making it.

 

First of all, I don't think using the last 5 years is a generally accepted methodology-maybe a weighted 3 years.

 

Secondly, JBJ is likely to get a raise next year and another one in 2020, so you have to factor that in.

 

While using the last 5 years may not be generally accepted methodology, it was done for a reason. I didn't want to be accused of 'cherry picking' so I eliminated JBJ's first season .189 BA in 37 games) but included his second season (.198 in 127 games). That gave me five years of data to work with so I also included JDM's last five years.

 

And you're right in that JBJ will get raises in the next two years. He'll get an arb raise in 2019 ($8 - 10MM?) and he'll be FA eligible after in 2020, coincidentally the first time JDM is eligible to walk. That's the point where this hypothetical situation could take place and it's the point where the decision could be whether to keep JDM or JBJ at possibly half the price.

[OH FOY]

They almost doubled him last year without Arbitration, he'll get 10 million maybe more. Probably ask for 11.5 and work from there, with Boras as his agent. He'll look at Rusney Castillo's contract, and use that as starting point. That's how I would do it, if I were his agent.

AND he'll be worth it.

Edited September 4, 2018 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

While using the last 5 years may not be generally accepted methodology, it was done for a reason. I didn't want to be accused of 'cherry picking' so I eliminated JBJ's first season .189 BA in 37 games) but included his second season (.198 in 127 games). That gave me five years of data to work with so I also included JDM's last five years.

 

And you're right in that JBJ will get raises in the next two years. He'll get an arb raise in 2019 ($8 - 10MM?) and he'll be FA eligible after in 2020, coincidentally the first time JDM is eligible to walk. That's the point where this hypothetical situation could take place and it's the point where the decision could be whether to keep JDM or JBJ at possibly half the price.

 

I'd throw our 2014 as well. It was long ago and JBJ was jerked around a lot that year- due mainly to his horrible offense from 2013-2014.

 

Out of 70 OF'er with 1500+ PAs from 2015-2018, JBJ ranks 38th in OPS at .772. Others close to him are Josh Reddick, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis.

 

JBJ has been, despite his streakiness, a pretty much average hitting OF'er. If you drop the sample size down to 1,000+ PAs, the group numbers 113, and JBJ places 50th.

 

I'm not here to say JBJ is some great offensive talent, but he has had a couple seasons over .835 and he is still in his prime.

[moonslav59]

They almost doubled him last year without Arbitration, he'll get 10 million maybe more. Probably ask for 11.5 and work from there, with Boras as his agent. He'll look at Rusney Castillo's contract, and use that as starting point. That's how I would do it, if I were his agent.

AND he'll be worth it.

 

He hit .726 last year and got a 70% raise. He's barely over .700 this year, and now this makes 2 years closer to .700 than .750.

 

A 70% raise this year would be about $4.3M, which would bring him to $10.4M. usually raises get bigger as they near the last 1 or 2, but I think JBJ will get about $9-11M.

 

[OH FOY]

Boras got this you'll see. I say we'll be lucky at just 10 million. Especially strong Play-offs, he knows they have nothing in the Minors, and paying a guy in Triple AAA, 11.7 million to play CF. Even 11 its still a good deal. Only numbers Boras sees in $. Edited September 4, 2018 by OH FOY!

[S5Dewey]

I'd throw our 2014 as well. It was long ago and JBJ was jerked around a lot that year- due mainly to his horrible offense from 2013-2014.

 

Out of 70 OF'er with 1500+ PAs from 2015-2018, JBJ ranks 38th in OPS at .772. Others close to him are Josh Reddick, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis.

 

JBJ has been, despite his streakiness, a pretty much average hitting OF'er. If you drop the sample size down to 1,000+ PAs, the group numbers 113, and JBJ places 50th.

 

I'm not here to say JBJ is some great offensive talent, but he has had a couple seasons over .835 and he is still in his prime.

 

The case can - and probably will - be made by the FO that JBJ is nothing more than average offensively while Bora$ will be making the case that JBJ has 'turned the corner' offensively.

 

I expect that the Sox will offer $9-10MM. It'll be interesting to see where Bora$ comes in with their offer. My guess would be at about $12MM - $13MM knowing that in a worst case scenario he gets a 40% raise. That $9-10MM would set JBJ up for ~$15MM in his first FA year which is about 65% of what JDM will get if he stays. I see that as being doable for the Sox. And that's assuming that Bora$ is right and that JBJ has 'turned that corner'.

 

At any rate, I see both of them being in a Boston uni come 2019, after which our 'window' begins to close a bit.

[moonslav59]

Boras got this you'll see. I say we'll be lucky at just 10 million. Especially strong Play-offs, he knows they have nothing in the Minors, and paying a guy in Triple AAA, 11.7 million to play CF. Even 11 its still a good deal. Only numbers Boras sees in $.

 

What we have in the minors has nothing to do with arb costs. It's all about getting closest to what the arb guy determines.

 

Chances are we settle before the arb at slightly above the projected amount. (Maybe $10.5M) Remember, this is not his last arb year, which typically gives the biggest raise.

Edited September 4, 2018 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

The case can - and probably will - be made by the FO that JBJ is nothing more than average offensively while Bora$ will be making the case that JBJ has 'turned the corner' offensively.

 

I expect that the Sox will offer $9-10MM. It'll be interesting to see where Bora$ comes in with their offer. My guess would be at about $12MM - $13MM knowing that in a worst case scenario he gets a 40% raise. That $9-10MM would set JBJ up for ~$15MM in his first FA year which is about 65% of what JDM will get if he stays. I see that as being doable for the Sox. And that's assuming that Bora$ is right and that JBJ has 'turned that corner'.

 

At any rate, I see both of them being in a Boston uni come 2019, after which our 'window' begins to close a bit.

 

JBJ has 2 arb years left. He may get close to $15M his last arb year, if he keeps hitting like he has since May 12th.

[OH FOY]

You work it out this year, he's worth it. Then rethink it. Who's more valuable, Bogey or JBJ's last year of arbitration. If the Sox don't think soon, the will always be in Luxury Tax hell, like the Yanks were. Be funny last year of JBJ's arbitration offer, is more than Rusney will earn of 14 million. Who will be 50 years old.

You keep JBJ at all cost in 2019. Simple. See how the season goes.

Edited September 4, 2018 by OH FOY!

[mvp 78]

JBJ has 2 arb years left. He may get close to $15M his last arb year, if he keeps hitting like he has since May 12th.

 

306 OPS from May 12th - May 19th. You pick some weird endpoints for your samples.

[moonslav59]

306 OPS from May 12th - May 19th. You pick some weird endpoints for your samples.

 

I meant starting May 13th, after may 12th, but you are right, starting May 20th gives a better number.

 

Starting May 20th, he has a .797 OPS in 318 PAs. (10 Hrs in those 86 games)

 

His OPS was at .502 after May 19th's game. It's at .707, now.

[mvp 78]

I meant starting May 13th, after may 12th, but you are right, starting May 20th gives a better number.

 

Starting May 20th, he has a .797 OPS in 318 PAs. (10 Hrs in those 86 games)

 

His OPS was at .502 after May 19th's game. It's at .707, now.

 

It jumped 200 points in 3 months, no way is it going up another 100 by the end of the season.

[OH FOY]

What we have in the minors has nothing to do with arb costs. It's all about getting closest to what the arb guy determines.

 

Chances are we settle before the arb at slightly above the projected amount. (Maybe $10.5M) Remember, this is not his last arb year, which typically gives the biggest raise.

 

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/salary-arbitration

Your right has nothing to do with the Minors, it has what his Agent thinks his client is worth. I would use Castillo as a starting point if I were his Agent. Happens to be in the Minors. Be a very good argument to a Arbitrator. 10.5 sounds right to me, and its still a good deal.

Edited September 4, 2018 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

It jumped 200 points in 3 months, no way is it going up another 100 by the end of the season.

 

1) I said near .800.

2) He's 93 away from .800 and maybe 80 away from being close to .800.

 

 

If he goes on one of his patented tears, he might get close.

 

I hope he saves that for October.

[OH FOY]

For his career JBJ has a .196 avg. and a .624 OPS in his career in Sept/Oct. So cranking it up this Month would be a good sign going into Play-offs.

By the way I think he will, he looks 100 times better at the plate now, then start of season. Looks real confident at the plate now. Good sign.

Edited September 4, 2018 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

For his career JBJ has a .196 avg. and a .624 OPS in his career in Sept/Oct. So cranking it up this Month would be a good sign going into Play-offs.

 

He still has not really had a super strong month this year. He's been more steady than ever for the last 3 months, but I'm hoping he busts out starting in October.

[mvp 78]

I hope he saves that for October.

 

If he has a strong October, I'll never complain about him again.

[S5Dewey]

JBJ has 2 arb years left. He may get close to $15M his last arb year, if he keeps hitting like he has since May 12th.

 

My bad... I guess

 

Rotoworld has JBJ arb eligible in 2019 and a Free Agent in 2020.

Spotrac has him arb eligible in 2019 & 2020 and a FA in 2021.

 

I'll defer to Moon.

[S5Dewey]

JBJ's 2018 numbers are dragged down by April & May. I don't much care about what a player did four months ago. Talk to me about what he's done in the past two months. That's a better indication of who he is now.

[redsoxrules]

JBJ's 2018 numbers are dragged down by April & May. I don't much care about what a player did four months ago. Talk to me about what he's done in the past two months. That's a better indication of who he is now.

 

And what happens if he goes into one of his month long slump to end the season?

[mvp 78]

And what happens if he goes into one of his month long slump to end the season?

 

Complain that baseball is LOL random.

[Slasher9]

It jumped 200 points in 3 months, no way is it going up another 100 by the end of the season.

 

DFA Him!

[moonslav59]

My bad... I guess

 

Rotoworld has JBJ arb eligible in 2019 and a Free Agent in 2020.

Spotrac has him arb eligible in 2019 & 2020 and a FA in 2021.

 

I'll defer to Moon.

 

I go by cots.