Farrell

[Slasher9]

It'll be interesting to see if the Sox FO fires a manager that wins 95 (give or take) and wins the division.

 

wins the division i would think he stays. although if he does another 3 and out in the divisional he might be on the hot seat.

if WC - and he loses the playin game then he gets canned. 100%.

[mvp 78]

Holt has been playing too much lately, I agree with that part. I just don't think it's reason to crucify Farrell.

 

He'd be playing a lot less if Machado didn't sweep Pedroia's leg a la Karate Kid.

[mvp 78]

It'll be interesting to see if the Sox FO fires a manager that wins 95 (give or take) and wins the division.

 

If he wins the division, he stays.

[SoxnCycles]

wins the division i would think he stays. although if he does another 3 and out in the divisional he might be on the hot seat.

if WC - and he loses the playin game then he gets canned. 100%.

 

If he's as bad as everyone think he is, I thought he'd be gone either way.

No doubt he's made some bad moves this year, both on and off the field.

But, there's nothing like an inconsistent BP to make a manager look worse than he is.

[oldtimer]

If he's as bad as everyone think he is, I thought he'd be gone either way.

No doubt he's made some bad moves this year, both on and off the field.

But, there's nothing like an inconsistent BP to make a manager look worse than he is.

 

What Farrell said about last night is that he went to Barnes, knowing that he has been having trouble, especially away from Fenway, to save others for future games. Its a judgement call and it is hard to criticize him not knowing what the long term alternative would be. I personally like to try to win the games when leading late and let future games be handled as they come due. Each approach has itss merits and demerits. JF will be judged based on the body of work. Its hard to know what a replacement for him would be like. Certainly not perfect.

[oldtimer]

Holt has been playing too much lately, I agree with that part. I just don't think it's reason to crucify Farrell.

 

JF seems to love Holt and he sticks with the team. we don't have the option to send him down without losing him for nothing I suppose, but we do have Lin available, who is flexible and probably a better fielder than Holt and can certainly play a better short. When he was with Boston he had a 280 avg and a 738 ops. Not great but maybe better.

[devildavid]

There are cumulative base running stats to measure these things.

 

One of the problems with saying that a particular out on the bases just cost us the game is that there is no way of knowing what might have happened if that out had not been made. We might have lost the game anyway. Therefore, you cannot look at an individual instance and statistically say that play just cost us the game.

 

No, but you can say that it was a run erased from the bases that did not need to be erased. It was an out that an alternate decision would have absolutely prevented. I really am not trying to show that there is a direct cost is in wins and losses. The real cost is in the wasted potential to score more runs. More runs increases the chances to win games. An inning that lasts longer has more chance of producing runs. More base runners means more chance to score.

 

The counter argument is that aggressive base running increases the chance of scoring. It does not accomplish this when it leads to outs on the bases. What is the acceptable ratio of outs to successful advances that produces more runs in the aggressive style of play?

[SoxnCycles]

No, but you can say that it was a run erased from the bases that did not need to be erased. It was an out that an alternate decision would have absolutely prevented. I really am not trying to show that there is a direct cost is in wins and losses. The real cost is in the wasted potential to score more runs. More runs increases the chances to win games. An inning that lasts longer has more chance of producing runs. More base runners means more chance to score.

 

The counter argument is that aggressive base running increases the chance of scoring. It does not accomplish this when it leads to outs on the bases. What is the acceptable ratio of outs to successful advances that produces more runs in the aggressive style of play?

 

I guess we could ask the fans of the Astros.

I think their OOB stat is worse than the Sox.

[moonslav59]

Tough play on that error. Holt moved in quickly and in fact fielded the bunt headed straight toward Workman. But he either hesitated or mishandled it which gave him little chance to get that runner. Without that mistake and the resulting bad AND rushed throw, he had a good chance of getting the runner out even though a tag was required. Runner to 1b was unimportant given tie game, bottom of 9th. HanRam can play 1b, but I'm not sure he makes that play. His OPS at 1b is .611, but .804 as a DH. Since you surmise HanRam would have been flawless on that play, maybe I can surmise he would not have hit that crucial dinger if he were playing 1b.

 

I get that you don't like Holt. I'm no fan either. All I'm saying is that replacing the injured Moreland with Holt and leaving HRam as the DH was not as irrational as you claim.

 

Your assertion about going back to 12 pitchers makes sense, but who do you bring up and how confident are you that the extra bullpen arm is not needed?

 

I wrote my post on Holt's defense before last night's game. I said .690 vs .720 is no biggie. I'll leave it at that.

 

On 12 pitchers, honestly, I trade the out-of-options Hembree. He won't make next year's 25 man roster anyways. We have Boyer, Maddox and Carson Smith in AAA, if needed.

 

I'd call up Travis but Marrero or Lin would be okay. We might add Brentz to take Hembree's 40 man roster spot.

 

We might even get a decent prospect for HH.

[Kimmi]

Tough play on that error. Holt moved in quickly and in fact fielded the bunt headed straight toward Workman. But he either hesitated or mishandled it which gave him little chance to get that runner. Without that mistake and the resulting bad AND rushed throw, he had a good chance of getting the runner out even though a tag was required. Runner to 1b was unimportant given tie game, bottom of 9th. HanRam can play 1b, but I'm not sure he makes that play. His OPS at 1b is .611, but .804 as a DH. Since you surmise HanRam would have been flawless on that play, maybe I can surmise he would not have hit that crucial dinger if he were playing 1b.

 

I get that you don't like Holt. I'm no fan either. All I'm saying is that replacing the injured Moreland with Holt and leaving HRam as the DH was not as irrational as you claim.

 

Your assertion about going back to 12 pitchers makes sense, but who do you bring up and how confident are you that the extra bullpen arm is not needed?

 

Good post Max.

[Kimmi]

Holt has been playing too much lately, I agree with that part. I just don't think it's reason to crucify Farrell.

 

Holt might be playing a lot out of necessity. Pedroia's injury is one factor. Trying to keep players fresh is another. Pretty much everyone is banged up at this point in the season.

 

Holt looks like the goat of this game because it was his play that ended the game, but he is far from being the only reason we lost.

[mvp 78]

I guess we could ask the fans of the Astros.

I think their OOB stat is worse than the Sox.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2017-baserunning-batting.shtml

 

LOL. Nope.

[Kimmi]

If he's as bad as everyone think he is, I thought he'd be gone either way.

No doubt he's made some bad moves this year, both on and off the field.

But, there's nothing like an inconsistent BP to make a manager look worse than he is.

 

I am neither a huge Farrell fan nor a Farrell critic. IMO, he is not nearly as bad as some people here make him out to be.

 

In the end, it comes down to the players being able to execute.

[SoxnCycles]

I am neither a huge Farrell fan nor a Farrell critic. IMO, he is not nearly as bad as some people here make him out to be.

 

In the end, it comes down to the players being able to execute.

 

Yup.

Which is why they'd have to miss the playoffs completely, before he gets canned.

 

We get to read all this fun stuff again next year!

[mvp 78]

Yup.

Which is why they'd have to miss the playoffs completely, before we gets canned.

 

We get to read all this fun stuff again next year!

 

Correct, if the lose a WC game and don't make the playoffs, he's canned.

[Kimmi]

What Farrell said about last night is that he went to Barnes, knowing that he has been having trouble, especially away from Fenway, to save others for future games. Its a judgement call and it is hard to criticize him not knowing what the long term alternative would be. I personally like to try to win the games when leading late and let future games be handled as they come due. Each approach has itss merits and demerits. JF will be judged based on the body of work. Its hard to know what a replacement for him would be like. Certainly not perfect.

 

I think there is merit to trying to keep relievers (and all players) fresh for the end of the season. This team is not in a do or die state right now. I'd hate to overuse Reed or Kimbrel now and have them be less effective at the end of the year and in the playoffs.

[moonslav59]

Holt might be playing a lot out of necessity. Pedroia's injury is one factor. Trying to keep players fresh is another. Pretty much everyone is banged up at this point in the season.

 

Holt looks like the goat of this game because it was his play that ended the game, but he is far from being the only reason we lost.

 

Again, we've had 4 days off in 20, and our roster is as young as I've ever seen it.

 

Yes, Pedey out has forced Holt to play more than anyone (but JF) wants, but with Nunez able to play 2B, I don't see the need to start Holt in 7 out of the last 14 games.

[moonslav59]

I am neither a huge Farrell fan nor a Farrell critic. IMO, he is not nearly as bad as some people here make him out to be.

 

In the end, it comes down to the players being able to execute.

 

...and how to avoid bonehead plays.

[SoxnCycles]

...and how to avoid bonehead plays.

 

I think it's as much a product of having a young team as anything else.

[Bellhorn04]

Yup.

Which is why they'd have to miss the playoffs completely, before he gets canned.

 

We get to read all this fun stuff again next year!

 

I'll go you one better - even if Farrell does get canned, we'll be reading the same sort of stuff again next year, just with a new name attached.

[Bellhorn04]

Correct, if the lose a WC game and don't make the playoffs, he's canned.

 

I see what you did there.

[Kimmi]

No, but you can say that it was a run erased from the bases that did not need to be erased. It was an out that an alternate decision would have absolutely prevented. I really am not trying to show that there is a direct cost is in wins and losses. The real cost is in the wasted potential to score more runs. More runs increases the chances to win games. An inning that lasts longer has more chance of producing runs. More base runners means more chance to score.

 

The counter argument is that aggressive base running increases the chance of scoring. It does not accomplish this when it leads to outs on the bases. What is the acceptable ratio of outs to successful advances that produces more runs in the aggressive style of play?

 

I don't know an exact ratio, but I'll look into it. I don't know if it's as simple as just looking at a ratio, without taking base/out states and game situations into account.

 

I do know that the last time I checked, the Sox were the 4th best in the majors in extra base taken %, and that their UBR (extra base taken runs) and wSB (stolen base runs) were both positive. It is by a small amount, but overall positive nonetheless.

[moonslav59]

I think it's as much a product of having a young team as anything else.

 

Yes, true, but all the more reason to stress fundamentals through ST'ing and all season long.

 

Look, I realize I don't know everything JF does. He might be addressing each and every blunder behind closed doors- to no avail. It's just hard being a rabid Sox fan and watching us piss games away or barely hang onto wins due to mental mistakes and IMO, misuse of the roster.

[Bellhorn04]

Again, we've had 4 days off in 20, and our roster is as young as I've ever seen it.

 

Yes, Pedey out has forced Holt to play more than anyone (but JF) wants, but with Nunez able to play 2B, I don't see the need to start Holt in 7 out of the last 14 games.

 

One thing that should be pointed out - 2 of those were back-to-back games where Holt subbed for Beni. It was after that that Beni went on a tear. Shouldn't Farrell get some credit for what appears to have been an excellent move giving him a couple of days off?

[SoxnCycles]

I'll go you one better - even if Farrell does get canned, we'll be reading the same sort of stuff again next year, just with a new name attached.

 

Good point.

[Kimmi]

I guess we could ask the fans of the Astros.

I think their OOB stat is worse than the Sox.

 

Their OOB is not worse, but their UBR and BsR (overall baserunning) is much worse. They have cost themselves approximately 2 games due to poor baserunning. Despite all of our OOBs, we are about even in baserunning.

 

This is why you can't look at OOBs in and of itself. And our damage comes from GIDP.

[SoxnCycles]

Yes, true, but all the more reason to stress fundamentals through ST'ing and all season long.

 

Look, I realize I don't know everything JF does. He might be addressing each and every blunder behind closed doors- to no avail. It's just hard being a rabid Sox fan and watching us piss games away or barely hang onto wins due to mental mistakes and IMO, misuse of the roster.

 

You can stress it all you want, but if the if the game speeds up on some young players on a Friday night, in front of a packed Fenway crowd, there's not much you can do about it except hope they adapt to it.

 

Some take longer than others.

[moonslav59]

One thing that should be pointed out - 2 of those were back-to-back games where Holt subbed for Beni. It was after that that Beni went on a tear. Shouldn't Farrell get some credit for what appears to have been an excellent move giving him a couple of days off?

 

Umm, Young plays LF, too.

 

Beni should be rested vs LHPs with Young playing LF.

 

Holt should be a last resort starter anywhere. His "versatility" is maximized by having him be the last guy on the bench allowing JF to PH and make other moves knowing he has anything but catcher covered.

[Kimmi]

Yup.

Which is why they'd have to miss the playoffs completely, before he gets canned.

 

We get to read all this fun stuff again next year!

 

And this is why I miss Buchholz. I miss his threads.

[Kimmi]

Correct, if the lose a WC game and don't make the playoffs, he's canned.

 

I see what you did there.