2017 Prospect Mega Thread

[Hugh2]

Spin it any way you want, not in Pitching. Positional excellent, Pitching Development Poor.

 

 

lol OOOOK.

 

Whats the point of a farm system? to supplement the major league team. You develop prospects to play for you, or you trade them for pieces that you don't have.

 

I never said this team hasn't had a hard time developing pitching lately, I just said they have a better track record than most.

 

This team is in first place, and they look like they have a decent shot of going somewhere in the postseason. Their entire lineup except for 1B is homegrown players who have been developed by this team. 8/9 in your lineup, that's sick. They've used their prospects to trade for Sale/Pomeranz/Kimbrell. They just didn't get those guys because of blind luck they did it because they had an abundance of prospect due to their ability to develop players.

 

So.....again.....The Red Sox have a great record of developing players and if it makes you feel better, particularly position players.

[moonslav59]

Outside of Tampa, St. Louis and the dodgers, not many teams crank out tons of pitching.

 

Finding and developing pitchers remains a difficult task by any metric available.

 

Very true, but I think very few teams have developed less home-grown(good+) SP'ers than us over the last 10 years.

[Larry Cook]

Very true, but I think very few teams have developed less home-grown(good+) SP'ers than us over the last 10 years.

 

I have wondered if our team's philosophy of teaching starting pitchers to throw only fastballs, curves and change ups is hurting the development of our pitchers.

[moonslav59]

I have wondered if our team's philosophy of teaching starting pitchers to throw only fastballs, curves and change ups is hurting the development of our pitchers.

 

I didn't know that was a set team philosophy.

[Larry Cook]

Houck pitched three innings for Lowell today and gave up one earned run with 3k's.

[moonslav59]

The first FT opening for a prospect, not surprisingly, turned out to be 3B. Devers has done a marvelous job so far, since his call-up. I can't imagine any current prospects ever leap-frogging him at 3B, but Rafael might eventually be moved to 1B (see below). HE certainly will not be moved to 1B, so Chavis can play 3B, and I doubt Dalbec ever get good enough to move Devers off 3B. No, I think Devers is our 3Bman for a long time.

 

1B (or DH, if we can trust HRam to play 1B FT next year- I don't) is the next FT position open for the Sox. My guess is we sign or trade for a big bat FA this winter. I can't see us counting on HRam at 1B/DH and some sort of major input from Sam Travis, Michael Chavis, Bryce Brentz, Jeremy Barfield or Josh Ockimey. (Devers and Dalbec could also eventually move to 1B, if we ever got a 3Bman that blocked them.) It's a nice list of choices, but most are at least a half year away to count on for 2018.

 

No other FT positions should be open, but there should be some hefty competition for the bench positions:

 

IF: Holt, Hernandez, Lin and Marrero all have a shot at maybe one 25 man roster slot and 3 forty man roster slots. (I'm assuming Rutledge is toast.) Since Holt is the best in-house solution for our 4th OF'er opening, 2 or even 3 of these guys might be on the 25 man roster for much of 2018. I'd love to see us get a big bat 1Bman and bring Nunez back, but that might be wishful thinking. (Nunez could also DH while HRam plays 1B.)

 

OF: Holt is JF's pet favorite, so I think he wins this slot over Brentz or Barfield. I doubt they try to move Chavis to LF, unless he bombs at the 1b experiment. I'm not convinced by Castillo's decent season for him to get a legitimate chance due to his high luxury tax cost. Danny Mars and Jeremy Barfield and maybe A Tavarez have an outside chance, but I think it will be Holt. (Swihart remains a long shot 4th OF option.)

 

C: I think Leon will remain the back-up to Vaz. Swihart has an outside chance and maybe Butler will sign another minor league deal with us. Procyshen is too far away as is Flores.

 

Our pitching staff likely will lose A Reed, Abad, Fister and Boyer. With Carson Smith and Thornburg on the 2018 radar, we may not seek outside help with our pen. The return of Steven Wright should also allow for a SP'er to begin the season in the pen. Here's how I see our pen shaping up next season, assuming all are healthy:

 

RP1 Kimbrel

RP2 Smith

RP3 Thornburg

RP4 J Kelly

RP5 Barnes

RP6 Wright

RP7 Hembree (out of options)

RP8 Workman

RP9 Scott

RP10 Maddox

RP11 Taylor

RP12 Martin

RP13 B Johnson

RP14 J Beeks

RP15 N Ramirez, R Elias or H Owens (if they are still on the roster)

 

Our SP'ers are all set until Pomeranz becomes a FA after 2018, and we might have Wright set to take his place. There's also Johnson, Beeks or maybe Groome as 2019 options at the 5 slot on the rotation.

 

What are your thoughts?

 

 

[Hugh2]

Jason Groome had another outstanding outing last night. Groomes numbers over his last 2 games 11 IP, 14 K's, 3 BB's, 4 H, 0 ER's.

[mvp 78]

Jason Groome had another outstanding outing last night. Groomes numbers over his last 2 games 11 IP, 14 K's, 3 BB's, 4 H, 0 ER's.

 

It is certainly nice to see since he started off the season pretty rough.

[Hugh2]

It is certainly nice to see since he started off the season pretty rough.

 

It really is, but I was never too concerned, even if he pitched sub par for the whole year. Young guys take a while and to develop and put it all together and that's the path most guys take. Just look at what Michael Chavis is doing this year?!? He might not ever win an MVP but the guy could become a contributing regular on an MLB team and that type of path is much more common than the Bryce Harpers of the world.

 

I think he's under a larger microscope because he was a highly regarded and drafted pitching prospect. It will be interesting to see what he does next year if he starts to take off.

[mvp 78]

"Maybe he was just struggling with all the skeletons in his closet. Once they came out, he's was probably more relieved." - Typical WEEI Caller

[OH FOY]

Consistency is all I look at in young Pitchers. Remember a lot of the good Players in Low A Players have been promoted this time of year.

But a good outing. Maybe 4 or 5 starts left. Keep building off this, and last start.

Edited August 8, 2017 by OH FOY!

[Hugh2]

Consistency is all I look at in young Pitchers. Remember a lot of the good Players in Low A Players have been promoted this time of year.

But a good outing. Maybe 4 or 5 starts left. Keep building off this, and last start.

 

That is true, but chain promotions happen throughout baseball, there are players coming up to Greenville from short season A. But I think consistency is a hard thing to get from a pitching prospect who is 1 year removed highschool baseball.

 

The minor leagues are littered with pitchers who don't have great stuff but they know how to pitch and they can get away with that at a lower level. I think of a guy like Roniel Raudes, or a Brian Johnson who pitched really well in the minors but scouts never saw more of a BOTR/Swing man type out of him. Guys who pitch well in the minors get exposed all the time when they move up the ranks.

 

You also have the opposite, you have guys who have all the tools but they can't put it all together. Maybe they can't repeat their mechanics, find their release point, or various other things but they are young enough that if they put it all together they can be absolutely dominate.

 

I'm not worried about Groome, even if he laid an egg all season, but when a guy is supposedly MLB ready I do think you're right to expect more consistency (otherwise I'd argue he's not even ready).

 

The thing about raw skill and tools is you can't really teach them. I mean, you teach a guy to pitch but you can't teach a guy to throw 99 MPH. Just like you can teach a guy to hit but you can't teach 425 foot HR. This is true in other sports too, think Basketballl; you can teach a guy who to shoot but you can't teach him to jump and dunk it. Either you have these raw abilities or not.

 

This is the mystery behind player development and the suspense between trying to figure out who will boom or bust. You can't predict how guys will develop because in essence we're trying to predict the future and know one can do that.

 

What we do know, is the guys who have raw tools put it together, we can generally know how good they can be.

 

A guy like Jason Groome could be a top of the rotation starter, but he could also be the next Trey Ball too. I'm not worried about Groome, I have faith that he will develop into an above average MLB pitcher but if he doesn't I will not be surprised either.

[Larry Cook]

Chavis with another tater tonight.

[Larry Cook]

Marrero with a tater tonight.

[bowman]

Yeah, Chavis and Brentz are raking. I know Brentz is 28 but will be interesting to see what he does if he gets a call up. Not sure what the scouts are telling DD, or where he'd play, but would like to see him get some at bats. Stranger things have happened....

[Larry Cook]

Beeks with 6 innings 3 hits 1 earned run 1 Walk and 6 k's.

 

Why are we not talking about him more?

[mvp 78]

Beeks with 6 innings 3 hits 1 earned run 1 Walk and 6 k's.

 

Why are we not talking about him more?

 

His stuff. People don't like guys who pitch to contact.

[moonslav59]

Marrero's 2 for 3 got him all the way up to .177.

 

Lin went o for 5 and is now down to .247. I'm sure glad we called up Devers and traded for Nunez.

 

Beeks' ERA is down to 3.18.

 

Carson Smith 1 IP 0 H 1 BB 1K 0 ER

 

In AA...

Chavis 1 for 4 with an HR (already his 11th in AA!)

Barfied 0 for 4

Ockimey 1 for 4

Kevin McAvoy 8 IP 2H 2BB 7K 0 ER (ERA down to 4.21)

 

 

[Larry Cook]

His stuff. People don't like guys who pitch to contact.

 

I have always believed there is a place in the majors for pitchers who are successful at getting guys out.

 

Beeks gets guys out!

[moonslav59]

We often hear posters speak of line-up balance or avoiding multiple "black holes". The Sox offense has taken some flack this season, but here are some interesting numbers.

 

Looking at the top 9 hitters by PAs on this team, none are below .701. Counting Nunez, none of the top 8 are below .747.

(Listed in order of 2017 PAs)

 

.803 Betts

.776 Beni

.747 Bogey

.753 Moreland

.769 HRam

.768 JBJ

.784 Pedey

>(.819 Nunez in 347 PAs- 2 teams)

.701 Vaz

.760 Young

 

Counting Nunez we have the 10 top PA players above .710, and Devers going nutty out of the gate.

 

Let's look at the other top winning teams in MLB. How "balanced" are they?

 

LA Dodgers:

7th in PAs, Logan Forsythe .683

9th, Chase Utley .750

11th, AGon .643

 

Houston Astros:

5th, Carlos Beltran .716

9th, B McCann .745

 

Washington Nationals:

5th, Matt Wietes .677

6th, Trea Turner .746

9th, Wilmer Difo .716

 

Colorado Rockies

5th, Carlos Gonzalez .642

6th, Trevor Story .716

7th, Ian Desmond .717

9th, Tony Wolters .642

 

Arizona Diamondbacks

4th, Chris Owings .741

8th, Chris Herrmann .583

 

Cleveland Guardians

6th, Jason Kipnis .683

7th, Yan Gomes .672

11th, Roberto Perez .524

 

Chicago Cubs

4th, Addison Russell .722

5th, Kyle Schwarber .739

7th, Ben Zobrist .677

8th, Jason Heyward .713

 

NY Yankess

3rd, Chase Headley .749

5th, Matt Holliday .748

8th, J. Ellsbury .684

10th, R Torreyes .678

11th, Chris Carter .653

12th, A Romine .579

 

Now, granted someone could do a study on how many of these teams have players over .850 or .900, and we'd look like chumps, but lets let go of the black hole talk.

 

While Vaz's .701 OPS could fall quickly, our other hitters, especially with Nunez & Devers playing everyday look pretty solid. Not spectacular, but pretty solid.

 

 

9th, Gregor Blanco .727

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Hugh2]

I have always believed there is a place in the majors for pitchers who are successful at getting guys out.

 

Beeks gets guys out!

 

Beeks gets guys out in the minors. We don't know how his stuff will play up in the majors, and scouting reports aren't glamouring. That aren't bad either, they just don't look like he's going to be a superstar.

 

Guys who lack a tool, third pitch, control, command, velocity or just one of these in access can have success in the minors and falter when they get to the big leagues and they face hitters who can expose those weaknesses. Think about Henry Owens. Most scouts saw a BOTR arm, possibly better if he could hone in his control and command. He didn't, but he was able to get by in the minors but struggled at the MLB level.

 

I think Beeks can carve out a position on the MLB club, but it will probably be as a middle reliever.

[mvp 78]

I have always believed there is a place in the majors for pitchers who are successful at getting guys out.

 

Beeks gets guys out!

 

He should be given a shot, 100%. I think he should be given the opportunity next year to be 6th guy in the rotation, maybe 5th depending on Price's injury.

[mvp 78]

Beeks gets guys out in the minors. We don't know how his stuff will play up in the majors, and scouting reports aren't glamouring. That aren't bad either, they just don't look like he's going to be a superstar.

 

Guys who lack a tool, third pitch, control, command, velocity or just one of these in access can have success in the minors and falter when they get to the big leagues and they face hitters who can expose those weaknesses. Think about Henry Owens. Most scouts saw a BOTR arm, possibly better if he could hone in his control and command. He didn't, but he was able to get by in the minors but struggled at the MLB level.

 

I think Beeks can carve out a position on the MLB club, but it will probably be as a middle reliever.

 

Problem is that Owens has not control. He walks the whole lineup. Beeks has walked 4 hitters twice this year. Owens has done that 13 times this year and did it 10 times last year. Just looking at the WHIP, you can see that Owens has had far more problems getting guys out than Beeks. I don't think they are comparable at all.

[Hugh2]

Problem is that Owens has not control. He walks the whole lineup. Beeks has walked 4 hitters twice this year. Owens has done that 13 times this year and did it 10 times last year. Just looking at the WHIP, you can see that Owens has had far more problems getting guys out than Beeks. I don't think they are comparable at all.

 

It's a poor and lazy comparision on my part I admit. My point was guys who have issues in the minors can usually get by because they can do one or two things really well but that might not always translate to the majors. With Owens it was his control, with Beeks it could be his durability and lack of a plus pitch.

[mvp 78]

I think he's much more similar to Brian Johnson. I find it weird that they see Johnson as a 4th/5th starter guy, but Beeks is only middle relief. They don't seem all that different to me. Maybe he's a better prospect because he looks better in the uniform as he's 4"s taller than Beeks?

[OH FOY]

Lets keep an eye out on a kid in GCL Pedro Castellanos going forward.

[Hugh2]

I think he's much more similar to Brian Johnson. I find it weird that they see Johnson as a 4th/5th starter guy, but Beeks is only middle relief. They don't seem all that different to me. Maybe he's a better prospect because he looks better in the uniform as he's 4"s taller than Beeks?

 

I think (and I can't stress the word think enough) it has more to do with their body types. Johnson is 6'3" 235 LBS and Beeks is 5'11 180. Johnson's profile is a better bet at starting. That doesn't mean that Beeks can't end up a starter and Johnson won't end up middle relief but that is the line of thinking I believe.

[Hugh2]

Lets keep an eye out on a kid in GCL Pedro Castellanos going forward.

 

Putting up good numbers in the GCL sounds like he's raw and very far away, but a power bat emerging in the system would be very welcomed. Here's the Soxprospects profile on him:

 

 

 

 

Physical Description: Looks taller and heavier than listed. Strong, large frame. Somewhat stiff and will have to watch body as he matures.

 

Hit: Starts square with hands high. Starts on front toe and never leaves ground utilizing toe tap. Short stride, lot of upper body in swing. Long, rotational swing. Hole on the inner half, likes to get arms extended. Pitch recognition a work in progress. Lot of swing and miss. Struggles with identifying secondary offerings. Fringy bat speed.

 

Power: Plus raw power. Power comes mostly from strength. Needs to incorporate lower half into swing to tap into power in game especially against more advanced pitching.

 

Arm: Average arm.

 

Field: Stiff, minimal range. First base only profile.

 

Run: Well below-average runner, not a part of his game.

 

Career Notes: Excelled against DSL competition in 2016, when he was much more physically mature than most of the rest of the league. Participated in 2016 Fall Instructional League.

 

Summation: Bat will be tested as he progresses through the system as hasn’t shown bat speed or the approach to succeed against more advanced pitching. First base only defense profile so will have to hit both for average and power. High risk prospect with low floor due to potential for swing and miss.

[mvp 78]

I think (and I can't stress the word think enough) it has more to do with their body types. Johnson is 6'3" 235 LBS and Beeks is 5'11 180. Johnson's profile is a better bet at starting. That doesn't mean that Beeks can't end up a starter and Johnson won't end up middle relief but that is the line of thinking I believe.

 

Right, that's why I mentioned the "looks better in a uniform" archetype. Ugly and small players are the new market inefficiency.

[Larry Cook]

I think (and I can't stress the word think enough) it has more to do with their body types. Johnson is 6'3" 235 LBS and Beeks is 5'11 180. Johnson's profile is a better bet at starting. That doesn't mean that Beeks can't end up a starter and Johnson won't end up middle relief but that is the line of thinking I believe.

 

I think you hit the nail on the head, scouting has a natural bias against smaller players.

 

didn't we see the same thing when pedroia was drafted?

 

Aren't we having this same conversation about chavis now?