A Realistic View at 2017 Part II

[moonslav59]

We might try a two for one trade to make room for Hembree, or we may just trade Ross or Hembree or create a phantom DL for someone.

 

I'd be very surprised if everyone is truly 100% healthy.

 

True, but even with one good on the DL, there will be a squeeze, especially if we try to keep the two guys out of options on the 25 man roster: Hembree & Abad.

[moonslav59]

Corner IF future....

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/04/system-restart-17-corner-infield.html

[Nick]

Corner IF future....

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/04/system-restart-17-corner-infield.html

 

Bullpen future looks bright also, of course part of it is due to 'starters' getting converted. But it's encouraging.

 

We have NO outfielders. Need Bradley and Betts signed/extended. We have plenty of time on Beni (6 years, FA for 2023).

 

It maybe cheaper for us to sign Pomeranz/Sale than Porcello/Sale. I wouldn't count on Groome just yet. Hard to project out on an 18 year old.

Edited April 18, 2017 by Nick

[mvp 78]

Corner IF future....

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/04/system-restart-17-corner-infield.html

 

I'm still thinking Devers has a great chance of being the Sox 3B in September.

 

Hanley tends to hit the DL every year, so I bet Travis gets his shot too.

[mvp 78]

Bullpen future looks bright also, of course part of it is due to 'starters' getting converted. But it's encouraging.

 

We have NO outfielders. Need Bradley and Betts signed/extended. We have plenty of time on Beni (6 years, FA for 2023).

 

It maybe cheaper for us to sign Pomeranz/Sale than Porcello/Sale. I wouldn't count on Groome just yet. Hard to project out on an 18 year old.

 

I'm sure Pomeranz would be much cheaper than Porcello, but you get what you pay for. I'd rather spend the money on Porcello if he keeps pitching like last year and not re-sign JBJ.

[moonslav59]

I'm sure Pomeranz would be much cheaper than Porcello, but you get what you pay for. I'd rather spend the money on Porcello if he keeps pitching like last year and not re-sign JBJ.

 

Porcello turns 31 the winter after his final contract year. He will be looking for a big contract and probably as many years as he can get.

 

After the Lester fiasco, maybe we'll learn something about extending pitchers over 30, but at some point there is a cost vs risk point where you have to say no.

 

I hope we can keep Porcello, but at what cost? If keeping Porcello means we lose JBJ or Betts, then it's not an easy choice.

 

 

Pomeranz turns 30 the winter after his final year.

 

It's hard to project where both of these guys will be once the reach free agency, but my guess is Pom will cost less- much less. His contract runs out a year earlier than Porcello's.

 

If you could only keep 3 or 4 of these guys, who do you choose?

 

Here's my choices:

 

(in order)

1) Betts

2) Sale

3) JBJ

4) Bogey (just about tied with JBJ)

5) Porcello

6) Pomeranz

 

(Note: these rankings can and probably will change by the decision time.)

[sk7326]

Porcello turns 31 the winter after his final contract year. He will be looking for a big contract and probably as many years as he can get.

 

After the Lester fiasco, maybe we'll learn something about extending pitchers over 30, but at some point there is a cost vs risk point where you have to say no.

 

I hope we can keep Porcello, but at what cost? If keeping Porcello means we lose JBJ or Betts, then it's not an easy choice.

 

 

Pomeranz turns 30 the winter after his final year.

 

It's hard to project where both of these guys will be once the reach free agency, but my guess is Pom will cost less- much less. His contract runs out a year earlier than Porcello's.

 

If you could only keep 3 or 4 of these guys, who do you choose?

 

Here's my choices:

 

(in order)

1) Betts

2) Sale

3) JBJ

4) Bogey (just about tied with JBJ)

5) Porcello

6) Pomeranz

 

(Note: these rankings can and probably will change by the decision time.)

 

flip flop Bogaerts and Bradley ... 2.5 year age gap + quality of substitutes

[moonslav59]

flip flop Bogaerts and Bradley ... 2.5 year age gap + quality of substitutes

 

We have no OF'er on the farm horizon. That's one reason I have JBj slightly ahead of or tied with JBJ.

 

I like Marco as a SS, and Chatham could be a surprise.

 

I won't argue with anyone having Bogey ahead. The age is a good point, but he will cost more too.

[sk7326]

We have no OF'er on the farm horizon. That's one reason I have JBj slightly ahead of or tied with JBJ.

 

I like Marco as a SS, and Chatham could be a surprise.

 

I won't argue with anyone having Bogey ahead. The age is a good point, but he will cost more too.

 

The land of "adequate corner OF" is large and not particularly costly to acquire - because of Betts, Red Sox are in a position where they can substitute Bradley with somebody legitimately excellent.

[mvp 78]

Sale

Betts

Bogey

Porcello

Bradley

 

I don't re-sign Pomeranz no matter what.

[mvp 78]

We have no OF'er on the farm horizon. That's one reason I have JBj slightly ahead of or tied with JBJ.

 

I like Marco as a SS, and Chatham could be a surprise.

 

I won't argue with anyone having Bogey ahead. The age is a good point, but he will cost more too.

 

Chatham would be the 2B replacement.

[moonslav59]

The land of "adequate corner OF" is large and not particularly costly to acquire - because of Betts, Red Sox are in a position where they can substitute Bradley with somebody legitimately excellent.

 

It would be costly to replace one of our OF'ers "in kind" through free agency.

 

I realize it would be very costly to replace Bogey "in kind" as well, as SS are more costly.

 

My point was that at this moment, we have better prospects at SS than OF. That could change.

 

I get your point, though.

[moonslav59]

Chatham would be the 2B replacement.

 

Pedey's under team control forever-- it seems like.

 

I think 2B is marco's best position, but his team control years may end about the same time as Pedey's- barring a trade.

 

Here's what soxprospects has to say about Chatham's SS skills:

 

Field: Solid instincts and feel for shortstop. Atypical size for a shortstop. Doesn’t get by on quick twitch athleticism, but rather long strides that allow him to cover ground to both sides and when charging the ball. Solid footwork, soft hands. Smooth fielder. Projects as a solid average-to-better defender and should be able to stick at shortstop long term.

[moonslav59]

Sale

Betts

Bogey

Porcello

Bradley

 

I don't re-sign Pomeranz no matter what.

 

I wonder what JBJ will be making his last arb year. I'd love to keep Porcello, but at age 31, open market FA prices as they are and probably $62M+ tied up in Price & Sale, I'm just not sure we'll be able to pay Porcello what he wants and deserves.

 

Can we really afford to have $85M+ tied up in just 3 SP'ers... and long term?

[Fisk]

Sale

Betts

Bogey

Porcello

Bradley

 

I don't re-sign Pomeranz no matter what.

 

I agree with your order exactly, but disagree on Pom.

[Fisk]

Bullpen future looks bright also, of course part of it is due to 'starters' getting converted. But it's encouraging.

 

We have NO outfielders. Need Bradley and Betts signed/extended. We have plenty of time on Beni (6 years, FA for 2023).

 

It maybe cheaper for us to sign Pomeranz/Sale than Porcello/Sale. I wouldn't count on Groome just yet. Hard to project out on an 18 year old.

 

I am intrigued by Tavarez had a really good year last year and had a good spring with the Orioles. Plus off to strong start this year.

[Emp9]

Porcello turns 31 the winter after his final contract year. He will be looking for a big contract and probably as many years as he can get.

 

After the Lester fiasco, maybe we'll learn something about extending pitchers over 30, but at some point there is a cost vs risk point where you have to say no.

 

I hope we can keep Porcello, but at what cost? If keeping Porcello means we lose JBJ or Betts, then it's not an easy choice.

 

 

Pomeranz turns 30 the winter after his final year.

 

It's hard to project where both of these guys will be once the reach free agency, but my guess is Pom will cost less- much less. His contract runs out a year earlier than Porcello's.

 

If you could only keep 3 or 4 of these guys, who do you choose?

 

Here's my choices:

 

(in order)

1) Betts

2) Sale

3) JBJ

4) Bogey (just about tied with JBJ)

5) Porcello

6) Pomeranz

 

(Note: these rankings can and probably will change by the decision time.)

 

Maybe we trade XB in 2 years and find a better defensive SS solution? Hopefully to a contending NL team and help build back the farm a little. Focus on extending Betts, Sale, and JBJ.

[sk7326]

I suspect there will have to be a hard choice between Bradley and Betts - which is, in other words, not a hard choice.

[moonslav59]

Maybe we trade XB in 2 years...

 

Blaspheme!

 

Seriously though, the idea may come to fruition at some point, but it's hard to imagine us trading him in the middle of a contending season or right before his final season.

 

 

[Emp9]

I suspect there will have to be a hard choice between Bradley and Betts - which is, in other words, not a hard choice.

 

Maybe. But I'm starting to value JBJ more than XB, at least lately (this could change). On the other hand the OF may be easier to fill than SS. I think any hint with two-one year(s) left that one of the two would be impossible to sign, I say you gotta make a trade.

[Emp9]

Maybe we trade XB in 2 years...

 

Blaspheme!

 

Seriously though, the idea may come to fruition at some point, but it's hard to imagine us trading him in the middle of a contending season or right before his final season.

 

 

 

Yeah,that would undoubtedly make things even more difficult. Other options would be to trade HR and/or Panda or some combination.

[67RedSox]

Hey Moon~It's been a while. Is there a game thread here?

[Emp9]

Maybe we trade XB in 2 years...

 

Blaspheme!

 

Seriously though, the idea may come to fruition at some point, but it's hard to imagine us trading him in the middle of a contending season or right before his final season.

 

 

 

I kinda wish Dalbec was a SS not a 3B. I'd feel better

[67RedSox]

Hey Moon~It's been a while. Is there a game thread here?

[67RedSox]

This place is a bit confusing.

[mvp 78]

http://www.talksox.com/forum/forums/16-The-Mike-Grace-Memorial-Game-Thread-Forum

 

Gamethreads posted here. ^^^^

 

Welcome.

 

This place is a bit confusing.

[moonslav59]

Hey Moon~It's been a while. Is there a game thread here?

 

Welcome 67!

 

Glad to see you here.

 

Game threads are title by date and opponent.

 

Stick around. There are some very knowledgeable posters here and no "softy the clown" characters.

[harmony]

Maybe we trade XB in 2 years...

 

Blaspheme!

 

Seriously though, the idea may come to fruition at some point, but it's hard to imagine us trading him in the middle of a contending season or right before his final season.

 

 

The Red Sox traded shortstop Nomar Garciaparra in the middle of a season that culminated with a World Series title. Garciaparra, of course, was a 31-year-old posting a .321/.367/.500/.867 line at the time of the trade.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox traded shortstop Nomar Garciaparra in the middle of a season that culminated with a World Series title. Garciaparra, of course, was a 31-year-old posting a .321/.367/.500/.867 line at the time of the trade.

 

I loved the Nomar trade and felt (at the time) it was just what we needed to win us a ring.

 

I think Bogey will be a better defensive SS than Nomar was at the time he was, and to me, defense is a big portion of a SS's true value.

[sk7326]

Maybe. But I'm starting to value JBJ more than XB, at least lately (this could change). On the other hand the OF may be easier to fill than SS. I think any hint with two-one year(s) left that one of the two would be impossible to sign, I say you gotta make a trade.

 

2.5 year age gap and the possibility JBJ is the 3rd best CF in their current outfield (and I like Bradley!) make me value Bogaerts significantly more.