A Realistic View at 2017 Part II

[moonslav59]

And losing guys like Guerra/Basabe/Asuaje/Allen/Diaz/Light/Rijo will have zero impact on the MLB roster.

 

Who knows what they might become and what are needs will be. They might have played a significant role, but I agree that as of now, it looks unlikely, except for maybe Allen or the better Basabe, as we are weak in OF depth.

[moonslav59]

This is an impressive list that will be very hard to duplicate:

 

Top prospects kept since 2014:

 

Betts (1)

Bradley (2)

Bogaerts (1)

ERod (1) via trade

Swihart (1)

Vazquez (9)

Barnes (2)

Owens (2)

Johnson (5)

 

Beni (1)

Devers (2)

Groome (3)

Travis (4)

Hernandez (6) via trade

Dalbec (5)

 

Prospects or recent prospect grads traded recently (highest soxprospects ranking):

 

1 Moncada

3 Espinoza

3 Margot

5 Kopech

6 Guerra

7 L Basabe (the greater)

9 M Dubon

12 T Shaw (not a prospect when traded)

12 W Rijo

13 L Allen

13 P Light

18 L Basabe (the lesser)

20 C Asuaje

21 V Diaz

24 Pennington

30 Wilkerson

40 J Almonte

 

I'm not trying to say losing all the players on this list was a horrible thing. Some have dropped sharply in league rankings (Guerra & Rijo), but in totality, this is both a strong and deep list of young talent that will be nearly impossible to approach starting with our next draft and Int'l FA signing period and going forward.

 

How difficult is up for debate. How close to impossible might be up for debate, but I can't see how anyone can have reason to think it will happen between now and 2021 or whenever doomsday is predicted.

 

We can find other ways to stay competitive, such as signing better FAs or going over and staying over the luxury limit despite serious taxes, but it will be hard to build a farm that comes close to what we see above.

 

 

 

Edited April 11, 2017 by moonslav59

[Fisk]

We will not need a farm system that deep. The idea is to develop and promote a couple players each year.

[moonslav59]

We will not need a farm system that deep. The idea is to develop and promote a couple players each year.

 

2021

 

If we still have Price $30M and Pedey $13.75M and try to extend or replace Porcello, Sale, Kimbrel, Thornburg and other vets plus try and keep our young stars like Betts, Bogey and JBJ, our budget will be just about tapped out. We will need to fill out the other slots on the 25 man roster with probably more than the two quality players a year as you suggested.

 

Yes, with the 12th pick we might be able to do that with picks like Groome & Dalbec, but even getting two from last year's apparent good draft might not actually work out. The odds were much better when we had 3 or more ML ready prospects to choose just about every year.

 

My main point is that it will be harder to do once we start getting picks in the mid to late 20's. K

[Fisk]

You do realize we can have a large payroll, we will extend a few and let a few go, the object is to replace the ones we let go, you don't need the farm system we had to do that.

[S5Dewey]

2021

 

If we still have Price $30M and Pedey $13.75M and try to extend or replace Porcello, Sale, Kimbrel, Thornburg and other vets plus try and keep our young stars like Betts, Bogey and JBJ, our budget will be just about tapped out. We will need to fill out the other slots on the 25 man roster with probably more than the two quality players a year as you suggested.

 

Yes, with the 12th pick we might be able to do that with picks like Groome & Dalbec, but even getting two from last year's apparent good draft might not actually work out. The odds were much better when we had 3 or more ML ready prospects to choose just about every year.

 

My main point is that it will be harder to do once we start getting picks in the mid to late 20's. K

 

That's a fairly realistic assessment of 2021 based on what we know now but that's four seasons away and a lot can happen in four years in baseball. Yes, it will be harder to get quality draft picks in the mid to late 20's but that's a price I'm willing to pay if this team lives up to expectations for the next four years.

 

Expecting a team to remain competitive year after year in spite of getting low draft picks may be a bit unrealistic but isn't that the way the draft system is supposed to work?

[Bellhorn04]

Expecting a team to remain competitive year after year in spite of getting low draft picks may be a bit unrealistic but isn't that the way the draft system is supposed to work?

 

Good point.

[moonslav59]

I'm fine with trying to win now, too. I think we went farther than we had to (Pom & Kimbrel), but I loved the Sale trade and understand why we signed Price.

 

My point was to call it for what it is. We sacrificed the future for the present, yet some seem to think we'll be able to rebuild the farm quickly and to a high quality status.

 

I do think we could possibly do well enough with lower draft picks and restricted international signings to stay competitive, but one main reason we are competitive now, is because we kept Betts, Bogey and JBJ who give us great production AND allow us to stay under or near the luxury tax.

[dgalehouse]

There is a steady flow of young talent coming from Latin America , as well as from U.S. colleges. Three years from now there will be numerous top prospects whose names are unknown at this time. The moral: Enjoy this ball club now. Don't worry so much about the future. Things will work out.

[moonslav59]

You do realize we can have a large payroll, we will extend a few and let a few go, the object is to replace the ones we let go, you don't need the farm system we had to do that.

 

If Devers can replace HanRam, Travis replace Moreland and Groome replace Pomeranz, we can probably afford to keep our young stars as their arbs rise or one or two get extensions. Replacing Sale,Porcello, Kimbrel and lots of role players may not need a farm like we had 2-3 years ago, but we'll need a lot.

 

How many Prices can we keep signing and stay near the tax limit?

 

Plus, with our track record on big FA signings, I'm not sure we should even try that route. That leaves the farm or trades.

[moonslav59]

There is a steady flow of young talent coming from Latin America , as well as from U.S. colleges. Three years from now there will be numerous top prospects whose names are unknown at this time. The moral: Enjoy this ball club now. Don't worry so much about the future. Things will work out.

 

What makes you so sure?

 

We can't just sign guys like Bogey, Moncada, Espinoza, Margot, Iggy, Montas and Devers anymore.

 

It's not a highest bidder system anymore.

 

My guess is we may not have a top 25 pick in 3-4 years either.

 

It's not impossible, but it will be extremely hard to build up to a point where we can have major impact guys (plural) come up every year or two.

[Nick]

Sam Travis will give us 6 years of team control. Hopefully Devers will do the same. I think you can always find a Moreland type to be the DH, paying no more than $10M. We have 6 years of Beni. Swihart will fit in somewhere. Our catching position is pretty solid.

 

I don't think it's very difficult to come up with a defensive minded short stop if Xander leaves us. Same goes for a 2B when Pedy retires.

 

It would be nice for someone to step up and be the closer next year, getting rid of $12M obligation for Kimbrel.

 

Keep our OF in tact. Quality starting pitching is a must.

 

It's doable guys. We have smart people working for the Sox.

Edited April 12, 2017 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

Sam Travis will give us 6 years of team control. Hopefully Devers will do the same. I think you can always find a Moreland type to be the DH, paying no more than $10M. We have 6 years of Beni. Swihart will fit in somewhere. Our catching position is pretty solid.

 

I don't think it's very difficult to come up with a defensive minded short stop if Xander leaves us. Same goes for a 2B when Pedy retires.

 

It would be nice for someone to step up and be the closer next year, getting rid of $12M obligation for Kimbrel.

 

Keep our OF in tact. Quality starting pitching is a must.

 

It's doable guys. We have smart people working for the Sox.

 

Well, that's the key to the whole thing. If they make smart moves over the next few years we should still be in good shape.

[S5Dewey]

Sam Travis will give us 6 years of team control. Hopefully Devers will do the same. I think you can always find a Moreland type to be the DH, paying no more than $10M. We have 6 years of Beni. Swihart will fit in somewhere. Our catching position is pretty solid.

 

I don't think it's very difficult to come up with a defensive minded short stop if Xander leaves us. Same goes for a 2B when Pedy retires.

 

It would be nice for someone to step up and be the closer next year, getting rid of $12M obligation for Kimbrel.

 

Keep our OF in tact. Quality starting pitching is a must.

 

It's doable guys. We have smart people working for the Sox.

 

Nice post. There's no reason to think that the Red Sox are going to fall off a cliff and be the doormat of the ALE in 2022. They'll be fine. Maybe not favored to win the AL every year, but fine.

[Fisk]

If Devers can replace HanRam, Travis replace Moreland and Groome replace Pomeranz, we can probably afford to keep our young stars as their arbs rise or one or two get extensions. Replacing Sale,Porcello, Kimbrel and lots of role players may not need a farm like we had 2-3 years ago, but we'll need a lot.

 

How many Prices can we keep signing and stay near the tax limit?

 

Plus, with our track record on big FA signings, I'm not sure we should even try that route. That leaves the farm or trades.

You don't need to sign the Prices, we will have some very good players. You bring in the complementary pieces around them.

[moonslav59]

I've never said we'd be a doormat.

 

Any team, even with the worst farm in MLB should not be in the cellar with a $200M+ budget.

 

For argument's sake, let's say we keep these guys:

 

$30M Price

$30M Sale

$28M Betts

$22M Bogey

$20M JBJ

Groome replaces Porcello

Travis replaces Moreland/HanRam

Devers replaces Pablo

 

That's 3 for 3 on top prospects coming through and a $130M for just 5 out of 40 players on the luxury budget.

 

Not doormats.

 

Not going to be easy to fill out the rest of the roster with quality enough o be competitive, let alone highly competitive.

 

Also, if we ever stop being highly competitive for 2 or more years, don't kid yourselves, you'll all be calling for the GMs head, even if he wins a ring in the next 2-3 years. Same as with Ben.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Also, if we ever stop being highly competitive for 2 or more years, don't kid yourselves, you'll all be calling for the GMs head, even if he wins a ring in the next 2-3 years. Same as with Ben.

 

Well, you should have left this part out. Some nasty pre-judging apparently aimed at everyone who's trying to stay positive about the team's future.

[moonslav59]

You don't need to sign the Prices, we will have some very good players. You bring in the complementary pieces around them.

 

Here's a projected 2021 roster with no additions from soxprospects.com and assuming we keep Betts, Bogey, JBJ and Sale:

 

Sale, Price, Sale, ERod, Groome, Raudes

Barnes, Johnson, Workman, Taylor, Martin, Cosart/Lakins

 

1) Beni LF

2) Bogey SS

3) Betts RF

4) Devers 3B

5) JBJ CF

6) Pedey 2B

7) Swihart C

8) Travis 1B

9) Dalbec DH

 

Bench: Hernandez, Matheny, Chatham, Longhi, Romanski

 

Lots of potential for sure, but a lot of huge questions.

 

Yes, we can draft someone from now going forward that could impact. Yes, we may sign some mid range or minor FAs to fill some holes, but building another big winner after 2020 or 2021 is going to very very difficult.

 

Again, I love our roster right now. I love having Kimbrel and Pom for the next 2 years. I'm hopeful we win a championship or two in the next 2 years, so we can say those two trades were worth it. I love the Sale trade and liked the Thornburg trade. I've complained about some moves, but I can see what the plan is.

 

We're hoping we did not give up too much of the future to try and win in the next 2-4 (maybe 5) years. I'm fine with the plan, but I see it for what it is. I'm not going to sugar coat the extended future, because the ways to build a strong team through spending on international FAs, FAs and falling draft picks due to signability are gone or going fast.

 

 

[Fisk]

Here's a projected 2021 roster with no additions from soxprospects.com and assuming we keep Betts, Bogey, JBJ and Sale:

 

Sale, Price, Sale, ERod, Groome, Raudes

Barnes, Johnson, Workman, Taylor, Martin, Cosart/Lakins

 

1) Beni LF

2) Bogey SS

3) Betts RF

4) Devers 3B

5) JBJ CF

6) Pedey 2B

7) Swihart C

8) Travis 1B

9) Dalbec DH

 

Bench: Hernandez, Matheny, Chatham, Longhi, Romanski

 

Lots of potential for sure, but a lot of huge questions.

 

Yes, we can draft someone from now going forward that could impact. Yes, we may sign some mid range or minor FAs to fill some holes, but building another big winner after 2020 or 2021 is going to very very difficult.

 

Again, I love our roster right now. I love having Kimbrel and Pom for the next 2 years. I'm hopeful we win a championship or two in the next 2 years, so we can say those two trades were worth it. I love the Sale trade and liked the Thornburg trade. I've complained about some moves, but I can see what the plan is.

 

We're hoping we did not give up too much of the future to try and win in the next 2-4 (maybe 5) years. I'm fine with the plan, but I see it for what it is. I'm not going to sugar coat the extended future, because the ways to build a strong team through spending on international FAs, FAs and falling draft picks due to signability are gone or going fast.

 

 

 

I agree it's going to be hard to rebuild the farm system, there is no way we will be able to build it back to where it was. We no longer have the advantages we had in the past. But that team you posted looks damn good to me, and that's with no outside help.

[moonslav59]

Well, you should have left this part out. Some nasty pre-judging apparently aimed at everyone who's trying to stay positive about the team's future.

 

Nasty is how some have treated Ben.

 

The same might happen to DD, if he wins in 2018 and has two bad years in 2020 and 2021.

 

I never said it WILL HAPPEN. I hope to God it doesn't. I plan on being alive for at least another decade or two, and I've come to expect a highly competitive team or a team with a strong farm that looks to be a winner in the near future every year.

 

I hated the last place finishes sandwiched around the 2013 ring, but I never got too down, because the farm was growing and growing. I'll be okay with some down times after this window closes to some extent as long as I see a light. I'm not sure how we're going to build a strong farm through a 4 year winning stretch (low picks) and a much more restrictive international FA market and luxury tax system.

 

BTW, I'm usually accused of being an optimist and "homer", but I try to keep it real.

 

I didn't mean to squash people dreams, but I have yet to hear anyone explain how we're going to do it based on the new system and DD's track record with low draft choices, building a pen, and signing big ticket FAs. Something is going to have to change for it to work.

[moonslav59]

I agree it's going to be hard to rebuild the farm system, there is no way we will be able to build it back to where it was. We no longer have the advantages we had in the past. But that team you posted looks damn good to me, and that's with no outside help.

 

Well, that's assuming many of these kids come through.

 

If they all come through, what could we have expected from this?

 

1) Beni LF

2) Moncada 1B

3) Betts RF

4) Devers 3B

5) Margot DH

6) JBJ CF

7) Bogey SS

8) Pedey 2B

9) Swihart

 

SP Sale, Price, ERod, Espi, Groome

RP Rauses, Barnes, Johnson, Workman, Taylor, Martin

 

Bench: Hernandez, Asuaje, Chatham,

 

[moonslav59]

Tiny sample size, but our catchers are now a combined...

 

12 for 24

1 HR

4 2B

1 3B

7 RBI

5 Runs

2 HBP (0 BB/3K)

 

Some very big hits.

 

 

[Fisk]

Margot would never ba a Dh, that's why you trade him. Asauje , Margot, Moncada and Espi also have a long way to go to prove themselves.

[Nick]

Tiny sample size, but our catchers are now a combined...

 

12 for 24

1 HR

4 2B

1 3B

7 RBI

5 Runs

2 HBP (0 BB/3K)

 

Some very big hits.

 

 

 

And they've thrown out three or four.....

[moonslav59]

Margot would never ba a Dh, that's why you trade him. Asauje , Margot, Moncada and Espi also have a long way to go to prove themselves.

 

Yes, but so do those on the other list you said "looked damn good".

[moonslav59]

And they've thrown out three or four.....

 

Blake who?

 

(Just kidding)

[Nick]

One thing everyone is missing is that current CBA will expire on Nobember 30, 2021. I don't expect next CBA to be as friendly to the owners as this one. I'm expecting much higher competitive balance tax threshhold for 2022 and beyond.

[Nick]

PHILADELPHIA -- In his second start as a Phillie, Clay Buchholz left with a right forearm strain with one out in the top of the third inning in Tuesday night's 14-4 loss against the Mets at Citizens Bank Park.

 

He left with the Phillies facing a 5-1 deficit with a runner on second, having allowed a three-run home run to Yoenis Cespedes in the first and two more runs in the second.

 

That inherited runner scored, and six earned runs were charged to Buchholz in 2 1/3 innings on eight hits, a walk and two strikeouts.

A drop in velocity in his first start in Cincinnati was a concern, but his velocity picked back up Tuesday. Even so, he left the game with a trainer by his side en route to the clubhouse.

 

I have tremendous respect for Clay B but we did the right thing by getting rid of his contract.

[moonslav59]

One thing everyone is missing is that current CBA will expire on Nobember 30, 2021. I don't expect next CBA to be as friendly to the owners as this one. I'm expecting much higher competitive balance tax threshhold for 2022 and beyond.

 

Makes sense, but our history of spending large on FAs needs to change for it to matter.

 

One of our biggest success areas has been signing (and trading some) international free agents- some with huge bonuses or contracts.

 

We paid a huge cost and 100% tax on Moncada who was essential in the Sale trade. (Another big piece was Basabe -the greater- for Sale.)

 

Margot was the #1 piece that got us Kimbrel.

 

Espinoza was traded for Pomeranz.

 

We swung and missed on over $70M for Castillo.

 

We've also signed international FAs:

 

Bogaerts

Devers

G Bautista

Basabe & Alomte (got us Ziegler)

 

These are some huge names. It will be very hard to come close to this.

 

Longer ago...

Iggy & Montas (who got us Peavy- who got us Hembree)

Doubront (who got us Marco Hernandez)

Dice-K, Okajima, Tazawa

 

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

PHILADELPHIA -- In his second start as a Phillie, Clay Buchholz left with a right forearm strain with one out in the top of the third inning in Tuesday night's 14-4 loss against the Mets at Citizens Bank Park.

 

He left with the Phillies facing a 5-1 deficit with a runner on second, having allowed a three-run home run to Yoenis Cespedes in the first and two more runs in the second.

 

That inherited runner scored, and six earned runs were charged to Buchholz in 2 1/3 innings on eight hits, a walk and two strikeouts.

A drop in velocity in his first start in Cincinnati was a concern, but his velocity picked back up Tuesday. Even so, he left the game with a trainer by his side en route to the clubhouse.

 

I have tremendous respect for Clay B but we did the right thing by getting rid of his contract./QUOTE]

 

Oh, the memories!