2017 Rotation Discussion

[Maxbialystock]

I believe adding a 2d WC team to each League playoff has made it disadvantageous not to win the division. In five seasons to date, 1 wild card team, the Giants in 2014, has won it all.

[Kimmi]

Good news on Johnson:

 

It does appear that Johnson will be able to make the start on Saturday.

[Kimmi]

If you look at recent Red Sox history, you'll find a strong correlation between our starting 4 or 5 all getting over 25 starts and winning championships (or not).

 

It's what Schilling used to always say. The teams whose original projected starters make the most starts will make the playoffs.

[Kimmi]

I hope Porcello can start to more closely approximate his Cy Young season. He is back to giving up too many hits as has been the case much of his career. It's not always fatal if you can scatter the hits and not give up too many long balls, but even his HR rate is kind of high for him so far. He is looking more like the 2015 version than 2016 one.

 

He has also been somewhat unlucky with a .386 BABIP. His BABIP tends to be slightly higher than average, but usually not this high. Porcello won't be as good as he was last year, but he should be better than what his current ERA indicates.

[moonslav59]

Here's the proof...

 

It does seem like there is a strong correlation between having a healthy rotation and winning a lot and winning championships. Plus, of course, how good the rotation is matters a lot, too.

 

Games started:

 

2003:95-67 (only 10+ starts listed)

33 Lowe

33 Wake

30 Burkett

29 Pedro

14 Fossum/10 Suppan

 

2004: 98-64 Championship

33 Pedro

33 Lowe

32 Schilling

32 Wakefield

32 Arroyo

 

2005:95-67 (No more Pedro era begins)

33 Wake

32 Arroyo

32 Clement

30 Wells

16 W Miller/11 Schilling

 

2006: 86-76

33 Beckett

31 Schilling

23 Wake

15 Lester

12 Clement/10 Snyder

 

2007: 101-61 (The Beckett era's 2nd year)

32 Dice K

31 Wake

30 Beckett

24 Schilling

23 Tavarez/11 Lester

 

2008: 95-67 (The Lester era begins)

33 Lester

30 Wake

29 Dice-K

27 Beckett

15 Buch (9 Masterson/8 P Byrd)

 

2009:95-67

32 Lester

32 Beckett

24 Penny

21 Wake

16 Buch/12 Dice-K (8 Smoltz)

 

2010:89-73 (4.40 ERA or higher with 4 of these 6)

33 Lackey

32 Lester

28 Buch

25 Dice-K

21 Beckett/19 Wake

 

2011: 94-68

31 Lester

30 Beckett

28 Lackey (6.41 ERA)

23 Wake

14 Buch/12 A Miller (8 Bedard & 7 Dice K)

 

2012: 74-88 (Year of CC, Beckett, AGon Purge)

(Note: no starter ERA below 4.56!)

33 Lester (4.82)

29 Buch (4.56)

29 Doubront (4.86)

21 Beckett (5.23)

18 A Cook (5.65)/11 Dice-K (8.28)/10 Bard (6.22)

 

2013: 97-65 Championship

(Note: No starter ERA above 4.57- the exact opposite of 2012!)

33 Lester

29 Lackey (healthy)

29 Dempster

27 Doubront

16 Buch/10 Peavy

 

2014:72-90 (The Great Rotation Purge season)

28 Buch (5.24)

21 Lester- traded

21 Lackey- traded

20 Peavy- traded

10 Doubront- traded

18 de la Rosa/15 Workman/11 Webster/10 J Kelly (7 Ranaudo)

 

2015: 78-84

32 W Miley

28 Porcello (4.92 but wins Cy Young the next year)

25 Kelly

21 ERod

18 Buch/11 Owens (Yes! Buck Owens!)

(9 by Wright & Masterson)

 

2016:93-69 (The Price era begins and all 5 starters start 20+ games.)

35 Price

33 Porcello (3.15)

24 Wright

21 Buch

20 ERod/13 Pom

 

2017:29-24 (on pace for 89-73) The Chris Sale Era begins.

11 Sale

11 Porcello

10 ERod (on DL now)

1 Price

5 Wright (Done for year.)

10 Pom

2 Johnson/2 Kendrick/1 Velazquez

 

 

 

Having a great rotation, especially with the top 3 or 4 slots is important, but it seems like equally important is how healthy the rotation is bot in terms of GS'd and starts made while injured (Lackey/Buch) or healthy.

[Kimmi]

I believe adding a 2d WC team to each League playoff has made it disadvantageous not to win the division. In five seasons to date, 1 wild card team, the Giants in 2014, has won it all.

 

The 2nd WC team makes it disadvantageous not to win the division from the standpoint that if you don't win the division, you have to play that one game WC play in game. But once a WC team is past that, I think they have about as good a chance to win it all as any other team. The cliche' that the playoffs are largely a crapshoot is true.

[harmony]

It's what Schilling used to always say. The teams whose original projected starters make the most starts will make the playoffs.

One exception would be the 2003 Seattle Mariners whose five projected starters never missed a start. That year the M's won 93 games but fell short of a postseason berth:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/2003.shtml

[Maxbialystock]

The 2nd WC team makes it disadvantageous not to win the division from the standpoint that if you don't win the division, you have to play that one game WC play in game. But once a WC team is past that, I think they have about as good a chance to win it all as any other team. The cliche' that the playoffs are largely a crapshoot is true.

 

Meh. Remember, odds are you used your best available starter--maybe your best starter--to win the wild card game, and you have to start the Division Series almost immediately. But you are probably right.

[Kimmi]

One exception would be the 2003 Seattle Mariners whose five projected starters never missed a start. That year the M's won 93 games but fell short of a postseason berth:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/2003.shtml

 

I'm sure there are exceptions to that statement, but it seems to hold mostly true. And even though the Mariners missed the playoffs, they won 93 games which is often good enough for a playoff spot.

[Bellhorn04]

The 2nd WC team makes it disadvantageous not to win the division from the standpoint that if you don't win the division, you have to play that one game WC play in game. But once a WC team is past that, I think they have about as good a chance to win it all as any other team. The cliche' that the playoffs are largely a crapshoot is true.

 

I agree 100%. I think the 2nd WC team has actually increased the chances of a team with a mediocre regular season record winning it all.

[Kimmi]

Meh. Remember, odds are you used your best available starter--maybe your best starter--to win the wild card game, and you have to start the Division Series almost immediately. But you are probably right.

 

Well, the 2nd WC team hasn't been around long enough to make any definitive conclusions, but my guess would be that the WC teams will fare about as well as the division winners in the long run. Anything can and does happen when you're talking about short series.

[oldtimer]

I see e-Rod has been told to rest his aching knee for from 3 to 4 weeks as part of the rehab. That throws a monkey wrench into our starting rotation and who knows how long after the rest that he can become an effective starter again.

[a700hitter]

I see e-Rod has been told to rest his aching knee for from 3 to 4 weeks as part of the rehab. That throws a monkey wrench into our starting rotation and who knows how long after the rest that he can become an effective starter again.

Spud was right that his season is going down the tubes again. We will be lucky if he is back to full strength and effectiveness by the end of July.

[SCM33]

Spud was right that his season is going down the tubes again. We will be lucky if he is back to full strength and effectiveness by the end of July.

 

Both Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg are getting closer to rehab assignments. If Price can stay in the rotation and stay healthy......Sale, Price, Porcello is still one of the best 3, if not the best top 3 in baseball. They are only 2 games out and some of their offensive players are starting to turn things around. I think they will be ok.

[moonslav59]

I see e-Rod has been told to rest his aching knee for from 3 to 4 weeks as part of the rehab. That throws a monkey wrench into our starting rotation and who knows how long after the rest that he can become an effective starter again.

 

This hurts. As long as he's back and healthy to end the season and go into the playoffs, I think we can get past his injury.

 

A quick return by Smith and/or Thornburg can lessen the blow.

[sk7326]

Meh. Remember, odds are you used your best available starter--maybe your best starter--to win the wild card game, and you have to start the Division Series almost immediately. But you are probably right.

 

Yes and no - while this is somewhat true - it does count as a separate round of playoffs. So you can craft a 25 man roster to win 1-game ... you can take a true johnny wholestaff approach and carry true specialists (like designated pinch runners) ... since you can reset the roster if you win

 

The biggest mismatch among postseason teams is still probably still no worse than a 60-40 series.

[Emp9]

I hope Porcello can start to more closely approximate his Cy Young season. He is back to giving up too many hits as has been the case much of his career. It's not always fatal if you can scatter the hits and not give up too many long balls, but even his HR rate is kind of high for him so far. He is looking more like the 2015 version than 2016 one.

 

It's because he fell in love with his mediocre FB ( like in '15) again and stopped throwing his Sinker when he needs to throw his Sinker. Not only that, but he's seemed to replace the Sinker with a s***** Cutter that seems to stay in most hitters' wheelhouses at the most inopportune times. Porcello only has one "Out-Pitch" and it's not his FB. It's his Sinker, and I've yet to see him throw it in an important situation this season. Last year he relied on his Sinker and he won the f***ing CY Young! His Curve is fine if he's exhibiting some command of it and/or if it fools the batter, if not it's simply a ball (like any pitcher really). All in all, I think it's his pitch selection and not going to his Sinker when he needs to. He should be fine if he does that, but it's a question of if not when with him because he seems to be really stubborn and slow to change what he's doing wrong. I'm a bit surprised and disappointed the coaching staff hasn't figured this s*** out yet as well.

[devildavid]

Big test coming up for some pitchers that we aren't sure of so far. Pomerantz, Porcello and Price will face a stiff test against the potent Yankee offense.

 

Pom has been much better lately so we'll see if he's really turned the corner. Porcello needs to regain some of the form he had last year if he wants to succeed against the Yanks. And Price is just getting his feet under him so it could be a tough outing for him. The Yankees high scoring offense will really provide an acid test for the Sox pitching staff.

[a700hitter]

Big test coming up for some pitchers that we aren't sure of so far. Pomerantz, Porcello and Price will face a stiff test against the potent Yankee offense.

 

Pom has been much better lately so we'll see if he's really turned the corner. Porcello needs to regain some of the form he had last year if he wants to succeed against the Yanks. And Price is just getting his feet under him so it could be a tough outing for him. The Yankees high scoring offense will really provide an acid test for the Sox pitching staff.

We had better be wearing our hitting shoes as it will be hard for our pitchers to keep them off the board in that joke of a band box. Judge can sneeze and the force of his snot can reach the RF seats.

[cp176]

come on - we got Pomeranz on the hill tonight - it's all good! lol

(where is Slasher when I need him? Just kidding there.)

[a700hitter]

It looks like Brian Johnson will get a start this weekend.

[TABLE=width: 100%]

[TR]

[TD]BRIAN JOHNSON NO LONGER APPEARS TO BE HAMSTRUNG BY HAMSTRING[/TD]

[TD=align: right]06.05.17 at 2:53 pm ET[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

By Rob Bradford

http://fullcount.weei.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/brianjohnson-291x400.jpg

 

Brian Johnson (Jasen Vinlove/USA Today Sports)

Brian Johnson has a good chance at pitching for the Red Sox this weekend, after all.According to a team source, the pitcher’s hamstring is no longer giving him discomfort, with Johnson having tested the leg with a throwing session Sunday. The lefty had experienced what was classified as a cramp when falling down after delivering a pitch Saturday in Durham, N.C.

Johnson was forced to leave his start after the second-inning incident, leaving his availability to replace Eduardo Rodriguez in the Red Sox’ rotation for the coming weekend in doubt.

But after the improvement over the past 72 hours, and a few extra days of rest, Johnson still appears to be the favorite to make the start against Detroit at Fenway Park.

Johnson is looking to build off the momentum he garnered when pitching a complete game shutout against the Mariners May 27.

Rodriguez is currently on the 10-day disabled list after re-aggravating his left knee during his Friday start against the Orioles in Baltimore.

[Spudboy]

"Rodriguez is currently on the 10-day disabled list after re-aggravating his left knee during his Friday start against the Orioles in Baltimore."

 

I am a sloppy speller as most of you have seen. I do try to spell correctly and I do edit my mistakes if I notice them.

 

This, however, is inexcusable. A professional journalist using this "word" that does not exist and makes no sense. Besides, it sounds really low class.

[a700hitter]

"Rodriguez is currently on the 10-day disabled list after re-aggravating his left knee during his Friday start against the Orioles in Baltimore."

 

I am a sloppy speller as most of you have seen. I do try to spell correctly and I do edit my mistakes if I notice them.

 

This, however, is inexcusable. A professional journalist using this "word" that does not exist and makes no sense. Besides, it sounds really low class.

Doofus sports writer.

[harmony]

"Rodriguez is currently on the 10-day disabled list after re-aggravating his left knee during his Friday start against the Orioles in Baltimore."

 

I am a sloppy speller as most of you have seen. I do try to spell correctly and I do edit my mistakes if I notice them.

 

This, however, is inexcusable. A professional journalist using this "word" that does not exist and makes no sense. Besides, it sounds really low class.

http://www.yourdictionary.com/re-aggravating

 

... and scroll down on this one:

 

http://www.dictionary.com/browse/reaggravate

[Spudboy]

http://www.yourdictionary.com/re-aggravating

 

... and scroll down on this one:

 

http://www.dictionary.com/browse/reaggravate

 

I imagine that you have a point.

[Bellhorn04]

The word re-aggravate does exist.

 

It means 'make worse again some more'.

[Bellhorn04]

Used in a sentence:

 

The first time I read harmony's post, it aggravated me.

 

I read it again later, and it re-aggravated me.

[moonslav59]

harmony does not re-aggravate me at all.

 

He's yet to aggravate me in the first place.

[Bellhorn04]

harmony does not re-aggravate me at all.

 

He's yet to aggravate me in the first place.

 

I was just 'busting balls' there, as they say...

[mvp 78]

Irregardless, let's move on.