2017 Rotation Discussion

[Kimmi]

He might have for sure but stuff happens. We know that. I was more upset with him not getting a few early calls than anything else. They could have gone either way. They didn't go his way. I just get upset when comments are made in general that relate to a person's character when we really don't know anything about him. My opinion is that it relates directly to the fact that some just didn't like the trade in general and thought that based on prospects rankings of a young pitcher we should have gotten more than Pomeranz in a trade. I'm ok with that. I don't agree with that opinion because I don't place as much value in prospects rankings with respect to what their future might become before they are 18 years old than some do. I would hate to think that a potentially good young ml pitcher gets victimized in Boston for things that he can't control. As an aside, i do think that Bradley might have made that catch but it still would have been a very good one.

 

This is exactly why I've been so defensive about Pablo. I don't like his contract either, but I still believe that there were unfair comments made about his character.

[Kimmi]

Worrying about a cliff that is 4 years away is a very pessimistic view imo. How can anyone say the farm will be garbage and there will be nobody to call up when they have 4 years of drafting and IFAs? Mookie was drafted in 2011 and was in the show 3 years later. It's possible that the replacements for the guys that leave via FA aren't even in the organization right now.

 

I am far from pessimistic. I am a homer who sees everything through rose colored glasses, or have you forgotten that statement already?

[cp176]

This is exactly why I've been so defensive about Pablo. I don't like his contract either, but I still believe that there were unfair comments made about his character.

 

I get that but my negativity about Sandoval was caused by his own doing. It looks like he got a message that he needed to get. Get in shape or guess what you could be gone. It was message that he needed to hear. Im not aware of anything real or rumored that would cause me to question Pomeranz's fitness level or give a s*** factor. Sandoval gets a redo and we all get to see what he does with it.

[mvp 78]

I am far from pessimistic. I am a homer who sees everything through rose colored glasses, or have you forgotten that statement already?

 

It's not my fault you fell to the dark side.

 

And you were the one to mention how your rosey outlook colors your perception, not me.

[Emp9]

I know it sounds optimistic but picking up Sale is a HUGE swing for this team. I'll be surprised if Sale doesn't put up 16-18 wins this season. At the same time I would expect the pitcher he's "replacing" - our otherwise #5 - to be sub-.500 with 6-8 wins and a bunch of ND's. That's a net gain of 8-10 wins. It's what Moon talks about when he talks of building a staff from the top down.

 

^Come on S5, don't you think you're over-rating Buchholz a bit here.

[sk7326]

I've been as critical of some of Dombrowski's moves as the next guy, but I have a hard time with this "cliff" concept. There are simply too many unknowns when you're trying to forecast the direction of a franchise 4-5+ years out into the future. We'll probably look very different than we do today, but I have a difficult time believing it's predestined that the Boston Red Sox are just going to go to s***.

 

Yeah, especially with the variable of pitcher health, and the Red Sox' own resources - I am less concerned about mortgaging 4-5 years from now. Am I concerned that the Sox have less ceiling in their org than they used to? Sure, especially without the same sort of monetary tools available to them (because of the recent CBA changes regarding amateurs). But their ability to solve that is on the scouting and development staff - and doing things like taking Jason Groome despite being a tough sign is a good omen there.

 

Dombrowski being aggressive trading guys he has not identified as future cornerstones does not bother me - providing we are getting the right guys back blah blah blah. The Red Sox will always have the resources to find worker bees. (and yes I recognize the luxury tax constraints - but that's John Henry's choice) And the stars they do have are so young that they will be heading into their primes in 3-4 years! Yes, the Sox might not be able to re-sign all of them, but that is fine. (Bradley for instance is clearly 3rd in priority among the outfielders)

[moonslav59]

...But their ability to solve that is on the scouting and development staff...

 

Agreed, but one would think Sox admin has been trying to do the very best in this area from day one, and now that the system is harder, I'm not sure it's something we can count on to improve.

 

Yes, Groome and Beni look better than TBall, so there is hope we are moving in the right direction, but we probably won't be getting 7th and 12th picks for 4-5 more years, at least, so even the same good scouts can only do so much with lower picks..

[sk7326]

...But their ability to solve that is on the scouting and development staff...

 

Agreed, but one would think Sox admin has been trying to do the very best in this area from day one, and now that the system is harder, I'm not sure it's something we can count on to improve.

 

Yes, Groome and Beni look better than TBall, so there is hope we are moving in the right direction, but we probably won't be getting 7th and 12th picks for 4-5 more years, at least, so even the same good scouts can only do so much with lower picks..

 

development will matter more - if you want ceiling at least. players might be a bit rawer. we'll see what happens - the team has had a lot of success drafting superior athletes and counting on them figuring stuff out.

[Kimmi]

I get that but my negativity about Sandoval was caused by his own doing. It looks like he got a message that he needed to get. Get in shape or guess what you could be gone. It was message that he needed to hear. Im not aware of anything real or rumored that would cause me to question Pomeranz's fitness level or give a s*** factor. Sandoval gets a redo and we all get to see what he does with it.

 

It's not the criticism of Pablo being out of shape that bothered me. It's the assumptions about his character that bothered me.

[Kimmi]

It's not my fault you fell to the dark side.

 

And you were the one to mention how your rosey outlook colors your perception, not me.

 

To your first statement, no.

 

To your second statement, double no.

[Emp9]

^Come on S5, don't you think you're over-rating Buchholz a bit here.

 

Just found out Buch is gonna miss 4-6 months, our ex-presumable 5th starter. So yeah, it's not even 6 wins. More like zero wins. Either way, having Sale is a huge swing. I know it's not an ideal way to predict team wins, but having Sale vs Buchholz (who's basically out for the season) is a difference of dramatic proportions.

[cp176]

It's not the criticism of Pablo being out of shape that bothered me. It's the assumptions about his character that bothered me.

 

In my world they are connected. His character is somewhat defined by the fact that being in shape to play for the best franchise in baseball didn't mean as much to him as I think that it should. It is my opinion. He gets a mulligan because he took care of business.

[Dojji]

Pablo's case is a little different. In 16 he gave his word, not that he would do something, but that he HAD DONE something, and nothing could be further from the truth as it turns out. Ascribing character flaws to poor performance is an old New England trick that we haven't outgrown in 400 years so we can expect it to be with us awhile. That's a bit different from calling a guy a liar when he, you know, actually lied.

[Nick]

...But their ability to solve that is on the scouting and development staff...

 

Agreed, but one would think Sox admin has been trying to do the very best in this area from day one, and now that the system is harder, I'm not sure it's something we can count on to improve.

 

Yes, Groome and Beni look better than TBall, so there is hope we are moving in the right direction, but we probably won't be getting 7th and 12th picks for 4-5 more years, at least, so even the same good scouts can only do so much with lower picks..

 

Sox still has the advantage in money that it can throw at scouting. Obviously with good finishes we'll lose the ability to draft high.

I wished that MLB would allow trading players for draft picks.

[moonslav59]

Sox still has the advantage in money that it can throw at scouting. Obviously with good finishes we'll lose the ability to draft high.

I wished that MLB would allow trading players for draft picks.

 

Agreed, but haven't we already been outspending most teams in scouting?

 

What's our record drafting 24th-30th with a long-time highly paid scouting group?

 

I'm not sure this is an area we can just will to get better, even by throwing more money at it.

 

I think there are still ways to sign international FAs that don't count against the limits, so we still have some hope there, but if you look at some of our best players and recent top trade pieces you'll see how important the international signings have been to us. This is the big area where we may take a big hit- not so much drafting.

 

Recent international signings:

Bogaerts

Devers (probably our best bet for saving money by replacing Pablo)

 

Moncada & Basabe (helped bring us Sale)

Espinoza (brought us Pomeranz)

Margot (helped bring us us Kimbrel)

Almonte & Basabe brought us Ziegler

J Aro (helped bring us C Smith)

Iggy & Montas (brought us Peavy who brought us Hembree)

 

[sk7326]

Agreed, but haven't we already been outspending most teams in scouting?

 

What's our record drafting 24th-30th with a long-time highly paid scouting group?

 

I'm not sure this is an area we can just will to get better, even by throwing more money at it.

 

I think there are still ways to sign international FAs that don't count against the limits, so we still have some hope there, but if you look at some of our best players and recent top trade pieces you'll see how important the international signings have been to us. This is the big area where we may take a big hit- not so much drafting.

 

Recent international signings:

Bogaerts

Devers (probably our best bet for saving money by replacing Pablo)

 

Moncada & Basabe (helped bring us Sale)

Espinoza (brought us Pomeranz)

Margot (helped bring us us Kimbrel)

Almonte & Basabe brought us Ziegler

J Aro (helped bring us C Smith)

Iggy & Montas (brought us Peavy who brought us Hembree)

 

 

They got Betts in the 5th round ... that stuff will have to happen more. Finding two sport athletes who can flourish with specialization, live arms with limited finesse. And of course trading to stock the farm - which can still happen given the team's surplus (of CFs say).

[moonslav59]

They got Betts in the 5th round ... that stuff will have to happen more. Finding two sport athletes who can flourish with specialization, live arms with limited finesse. And of course trading to stock the farm - which can still happen given the team's surplus (of CFs say).

 

We have done pretty well after the 30th pick, and you are right, that will have to continue, but even if it does or even gets slightly better, will it be enough to offset no more #7 (Beni) or #12 (Groome) draft picks and fewer international big splash signings?

 

Some good 31 or later recent Sox draft picks:

51 Chatham

201 Ben Taylor

33 Kopech

67 Travis

2012-2013 was a down time, then...

40 Bradley

172 Betts

2006-2010 was down as well (5 yrs!)

 

 

[sk7326]

We have done pretty well after the 30th pick, and you are right, that will have to continue, but even if it does or even gets slightly better, will it be enough to offset no more #7 (Beni) or #12 (Groome) draft picks and fewer international big splash signings?

 

Some good 31 or later recent Sox draft picks:

51 Chatham

201 Ben Taylor

33 Kopech

67 Travis

2012-2013 was a down time, then...

40 Bradley

172 Betts

2006-2010 was down as well (5 yrs!)

 

 

 

signability is not the issue that it was - but it is still going to be there. Kids will still use college commitments - and some will use them more credibly than others. I am curious. Dombrowski is a good baseball man - if the farm withers, it's because Henry wanted it to.

[moonslav59]

signability is not the issue that it was - but it is still going to be there. Kids will still use college commitments - and some will use them more credibly than others. I am curious. Dombrowski is a good baseball man - if the farm withers, it's because Henry wanted it to.

 

The slot money is something that was not there for some of Henry's tenure. We still got Groome, because some felt he was not going to sign, but I don't think his was a case of him deciding to sign because we could throw more money at him.

[Nick]

We have the 3rd highest payroll this year. LA Dodgers have the highest at $242M but they are paying over $50M to several players no longer playing for Dodgers.

 

In reality there are five clubs (counting Dodgers) in the same ball park in spending, near $200M.

 

If that's NOT an advantage going forward, I don't know what is.

 

Spare me with doomsday scenario. Sox fans have it made with ownership group willing to spend money for good on field product.

 

Now if we keep making mistakes as Ben did by signing Pablo for 5 yrs at $95M, our ability to spend will be negated.

 

If we get a lousy team, it's on DD.

Edited April 19, 2017 by Nick

[Wade Boggs]

We have the 3rd highest payroll this year. LA Dodgers have the highest at $242M but they are paying over $50M to several players no longer playing for Dodgers.

 

In reality there are five clubs (counting Dodgers) in the same ball park in spending, near $200M.

 

If that's NOT an advantage going forward, I don't know what is.

 

Spare me with doomsday scenario. Sox fans have it made with ownership group willing to spend money for good on field product.

 

If the owners of these professional teams don't have the money 2 spend..... they should sell. They should sell the team and get the right ownership group in there. The money should be put into F/A and drafting, not counting how many hotdogs are sold, give them a winner and they will come. Most of these owners have it, with the local and national revenue contracts they can spend it... Do they do it is a different story. We have this football team I am a fan of that is at the white house today, they said the same things about them. The team with the five VL trophies. That place was a graveyard now look at what it has become....Dynasty

[moonslav59]

If the owners of these professional teams don't have the money 2 spend..... they should sell.

 

Why? They're making a killing as the value of their commodity goes through the roof- win or lose.

[NativeBostonian]

If the owners of these professional teams don't have the money 2 spend..... they should sell. They should sell the team and get the right ownership group in there. The money should be put into F/A and drafting, not counting how many hotdogs are sold, give them a winner and they will come. Most of these owners have it, with the local and national revenue contracts they can spend it... Do they do it is a different story. We have this football team I am a fan of that is at the white house today, they said the same things about them. The team with the five VL trophies. That place was a graveyard now look at what it has become....Dynasty

 

They have the money to spend. Their market just doesn't justify them to spend. Just take a look at the Marlins. They have the second richest owner. But, they just can't afford to spend money because no one will come even if they win. You can use the Tampa Bay Ray as an example of that market. The Rays had a winning team for 8 years and no one showed.

Edited April 19, 2017 by NativeBostonian

[Wade Boggs]

If the owners of these professional teams don't have the money 2 spend..... they should sell.

 

Why? They're making a killing as the value of their commodity goes through the roof- win or lose.

 

That's fine but don't cry that they can't compete with the big boys. I'm talking about the W'S your talking $$. Just two things that don't match.

[moonslav59]

That's fine but don't cry that they can't compete with the big boys. I'm talking about the W'S your talking $$. Just two things that don't match.

 

I've never cried for millionaires.

[cp176]

I've never cried for millionaires.

 

I don't need your tears! whoops lol just kidding

[moonslav59]

I don't need your tears! whoops lol just kidding

 

They don't either.

 

[oldtimer]

Porcello pitched fairly well today but got two errors in one inning (Panda and Moreland) plus two ground ball hits through the infield to account for three runs while getting no run support.

[Jasonbay44]

Porcello pitched fairly well today but got two errors in one inning (Panda and Moreland) plus two ground ball hits through the infield to account for three runs while getting no run support.

 

Porcello was great tonight. He should've had 2 outs no one on, and his defense screwed him and gave him 2nd and 3rd no one out. Good sign to see him pitch well.

[moonslav59]

Great sign with Porcello looking great.