Opening day batting order?

[Fisk]

Farrell announced officially today that Leon would be the Opening Day catcher. Swihart is all but guaranteed to start the season in AAA.

 

He did leave it open by saying as of now he's are opening day catcher. Which to me means it could be subject to change.

[dustcover]

Anyone care to project what they see as the Opening Day batting order?

 

My guess:

 

1. Pedroia RH

2. Benintendi LH

3. Betts RH

4. Ramirez RH

5. Bogaerts RH

6. Bradley LH

7. Sandoval SH

8. Moreland LH

9. Leon SH

 

Looks more and more like I wasn't too far off. Farrell did however slip Swihart in as catcher last night, although having already announced that Leon will be Opening Day catcher. Reportedly, he has also confirmed that Betts will be batting 3rd. He did move Moreland up to the 5th spot in spite of my having him batting 8th, which reluctantly I'll concede the logic to this move. As Opening Day draws closer, it looks more and more like this is what we will be seeing.

 

1. Pedroia

2. Benintendi

3. Betts

4. Ramirez

5. Moreland

6. Bogaerts

7. Bradley Jr.

8. Sandoval

9. Swihart

 

Hold the applause please!

Edited March 24, 2017 by dustcover

[oldtimer]

Looks more and more like I wasn't too far off. Farrell did however slip Swihart in as catcher last night, although having already announced that Leon will be Opening Day catcher. Reportedly, he has also confirmed that Betts will be batting 3rd. He did move Moreland up to the 5th spot in spite of my having him batting 8th, which reluctantly I'll concede the logic to this move. As Opening Day draws closer, it looks more and more like this is what we will be seeing.

 

1. Pedroia

2. Benintendi

3. Betts

4. Ramirez

5. Moreland

6. Bogaerts

7. Bradley Jr.

8. Sandoval

9. Swihart

 

Hold the applause please! [ATTACH=CONFIG]467[/ATTACH]

 

Lots of righty lefty thinking in this lineup. Swihart won't be there at least to start so the hope is Leon can hit.

[jacksonianmarch]

Leon had a near .400 BABIP last year. Fangraphs has him at .672OPS for this year. While Leon may be your starting catcher on opening day, I see this being a three way fight all year

[moonslav59]

Leon had a near .400 BABIP last year. Fangraphs has him at .672OPS for this year. While Leon may be your starting catcher on opening day, I see this being a three way fight all year

 

Last year the Sox placed 18th in catcher OPS at .681.

 

.672 does not scare me, when the guy catching knows what he's doing with the staff and on defense.

[S5Dewey]

Swihart caught Wright today (3/23) otherwise you were right on. Swihart has won the job hands down. No competition whatsoever. He even came up with a -24 double play. No PB? Amazing. I think he'll eventually move up in the lineup, but that remains to be seen. Being a SH, he can fit in most places. Bradley's inconsistency makes him ideal for the 9 spot.

 

OHhh..mal... I love you man, but were you watching the game? There were at least two PB on Swihart, one of which allowed a runner to advance from 2B to 3B and another that allowed a run to score. There was also a ball that went off the top of Swihart's mitt that wasn't called a PB only because there was no one on base.

 

OTOH, IIRC the guy went 2-4 with a double off the wall.

 

It was a typical Swihart game - he had trouble blocking balls in the dirt and hit the ball a ton. If we could merge Swihart and Vaz we'd have one great catcher (and the other one who doesn't belong in MLB LOL).

[sk7326]

Leon had a near .400 BABIP last year. Fangraphs has him at .672OPS for this year. While Leon may be your starting catcher on opening day, I see this being a three way fight all year

 

Leon had 6 good weeks and was the Sandy Leon flavored pumpkin the rest of the time. Now he deserves the right to prove me wrong. The team would be best off if Swihart did what it took to win the gig.

[sk7326]

OHhh..mal... I love you man, but were you watching the game? There were at least two PB on Swihart, one of which allowed a runner to advance from 2B to 3B and another that allowed a run to score. There was also a ball that went off the top of Swihart's mitt that wasn't called a PB only because there was no one on base.

 

OTOH, IIRC the guy went 2-4 with a double off the wall.

 

It was a typical Swihart game - he had trouble blocking balls in the dirt and hit the ball a ton. If we could merge Swihart and Vaz we'd have one great catcher (and the other one who doesn't belong in MLB LOL).

 

As Ueck says, catching a knuckleball is easy. Just wait for it to stop rolling.

[moonslav59]

Leon had 6 good weeks and was the Sandy Leon flavored pumpkin the rest of the time. Now he deserves the right to prove me wrong. The team would be best off if Swihart did what it took to win the gig.

 

He played his first game on June 7th.

6 weeks later, his OPS was 1.133.

It was at 1.091 on August 18th (4 weeks later)

He was still at .988 on September 3rd after a 5 for 11 streak.

That's about 14 weeks of near 1.000 OPS ball.

Yes, he went .539 in his last 85 PAs, but he was at .976 in 198 previous PAs.

 

I'm not sure why a players last 4 weeks are weighted so heavily by some.

 

I certainly get the idea that Leon is not going to end up with an .800 plus OPS this year, and he may very well end up at .600 or even worse, but there's a also a good chance he's near .725, and with his superior defense (to Swihart's), it's no wonder to me, he's making the opening day roster and starting game one.

[sk7326]

He played his first game on June 7th.

6 weeks later, his OPS was 1.133.

It was at 1.091 on August 18th (4 weeks later)

He was still at .988 on September 3rd after a 5 for 11 streak.

That's about 14 weeks of near 1.000 OPS ball.

Yes, he went .539 in his last 85 PAs, but he was at .976 in 198 previous PAs.

 

I'm not sure why a players last 4 weeks are weighted so heavily by some.

 

I certainly get the idea that Leon is not going to end up with an .800 plus OPS this year, and he may very well end up at .600 or even worse, but there's a also a good chance he's near .725, and with his superior defense (to Swihart's), it's no wonder to me, he's making the opening day roster and starting game one.

 

It's not the last 4 weeks - it is the REST OF HIS CAREER. 177 ABs of a 5 year career as a fringe major leaguer. Now I think he deserves to start the year as #1.

[dustcover]

I'm having a few second thoughts. If Leon gets off to a hot start similar to last year, we may see Farrell moving him up in the lineup to the 5th spot while still adhering to the lefty/rightie configuration and moving Moreland to the 7th hole, with Bradley Jr. batting 9th. I've always felt that JBJ seems to excel from the 9 spot.

 

1. Pedroia

2. Benintendi

3. Betts

4. Ramirez

5. Leon

6. Bogaerts

7. Moreland

8. Sandoval

9. Bradley Jr.

[moonslav59]

It's not the last 4 weeks - it is the REST OF HIS CAREER. 177 ABs of a 5 year career as a fringe major leaguer. Now I think he deserves to start the year as #1.

 

I get it. His career was a long stretch of sporadic play with tiny sample sizes spread out over many years. Together they showed a very weak hitter, and I'm not going to deny he may still prove to continue being a very weak hitter. That's why I'm glad we have Vaz and Swi to fall back on or platoon with Leon.

 

I will add that Leon has had a couple of hot stretches throughout his minor league career:

 

2012 (231 PAs) .856 OPS

2013 (142 PAs in the Venezuelan League) .938 OPS

 

So, in 3 of his last 5 seasons, he's seen a hot streak.

His .692 OPS in 193 PAs in AAA in 2014 was not god-awful either

 

[moonslav59]

I'm having a few second thoughts. If Leon gets off to a hot start similar to last year, we may see Farrell moving him up in the lineup to the 5th spot while still adhering to the lefty/rightie configuration and moving Moreland to the 7th hole, with Bradley Jr. batting 9th. I've always felt that JBJ seems to excel from the 9 spot.

 

1. Pedroia

2. Benintendi

3. Betts

4. Ramirez

5. Leon

6. Bogaerts

7. Moreland

8. Sandoval

9. Bradley Jr.

 

JBJ's .868 OPS from the 6 slot was pretty good as well.

 

It's hard to know if being in the 9 slot when he had his hottest streak was because he was in the nine slot or just plain luck.

 

I like JBJ in the top 6 vs RHPs. Ninth is fine vs LHPs.

[sk7326]

I get it. His career was a long stretch of sporadic play with tiny sample sizes spread out over many years. Together they showed a very weak hitter, and I'm not going to deny he may still prove to continue being a very weak hitter. That's why I'm glad we have Vaz and Swi to fall back on or platoon with Leon.

 

I will add that Leon has had a couple of hot stretches throughout his minor league career:

 

2012 (231 PAs) .856 OPS

2013 (142 PAs in the Venezuelan League) .938 OPS

 

So, in 3 of his last 5 seasons, he's seen a hot streak.

His .692 OPS in 193 PAs in AAA in 2014 was not god-awful either

 

 

He is also 28 years old (in a later blooming position granted) - there are more reasons to believe fluke than real. But - given the situation, he deserves the chance to prove me wrong.

[Emp9]

Well, Mookie or Pedey was "protecting" him for that time, no? I know I know, but I just don't think it hurts to have good to great hitter batting behind you. Correlation doesn't equal causation, but when the correlation is so so so riveting...

[Fisk]

Leon had a near .400 BABIP last year. Fangraphs has him at .672OPS for this year. While Leon may be your starting catcher on opening day, I see this being a three way fight all year

 

Agree I'm not sure he's going to last past April.

[moonslav59]

He is also 28 years old (in a later blooming position granted) - there are more reasons to believe fluke than real. But - given the situation, he deserves the chance to prove me wrong.

 

If I had to bet, I'd say it was more "fluke" than any sign of what was to come, but on the other hand, I think 2016 probably means we shouldn't expect .550 to .600 from him either.

 

He's shown some glimpses of hitting well for significant stretches in the minors or Ven. league, so I think it's possible he can put together a hot streak in 2017 or get to a point where he's consistently .675-.725ish.

[moonslav59]

Agree I'm not sure he's going to last past April.

 

If we're winning, and the pitchers are doing well when Leon catches, I think he'll be given a longer leash than one month- assuming he hits below .650 in April.

[Fisk]

I'm not confident he can ops 650. Farrell's comment on Thursday was as of now he is our opening day catcher. That does not portend a lot o f confidence.

[Kimmi]

Looks more and more like I wasn't too far off. Farrell did however slip Swihart in as catcher last night, although having already announced that Leon will be Opening Day catcher. Reportedly, he has also confirmed that Betts will be batting 3rd. He did move Moreland up to the 5th spot in spite of my having him batting 8th, which reluctantly I'll concede the logic to this move. As Opening Day draws closer, it looks more and more like this is what we will be seeing.

 

Red Sox Stats‏ @redsoxstats 2h2 hours ago

 

"Mookie needs to bat in the 1st." 2 outs and bases empty is poor time for Betts to bat. Cleanup he bats in 1st with men on, or starts fresh.

 

The Stats dude gets it.

[Kimmi]

I get it. His career was a long stretch of sporadic play with tiny sample sizes spread out over many years. Together they showed a very weak hitter, and I'm not going to deny he may still prove to continue being a very weak hitter. That's why I'm glad we have Vaz and Swi to fall back on or platoon with Leon.

 

I will add that Leon has had a couple of hot stretches throughout his minor league career:

 

2012 (231 PAs) .856 OPS

2013 (142 PAs in the Venezuelan League) .938 OPS

 

So, in 3 of his last 5 seasons, he's seen a hot streak.

His .692 OPS in 193 PAs in AAA in 2014 was not god-awful either

 

 

IMO, Leon will be about midway between his 2015 and 2016 seasons. He won't be able to sustain that near .400 BABIP, but his line drive and hard contact rates have improved, which are good signs for him moving forward.

[Fisk]

IMO, Leon will be about midway between his 2015 and 2016 seasons. He won't be able to sustain that near .400 BABIP, but his line drive and hard contact rates have improved, which are good signs for him moving forward.

 

You are much more confident about him then I am.

[Bellhorn04]

I think Leon will be quite adequate. We're lucky to have a pool of 3 catchers like this. Give Swihart a little time, he will be the man eventually. They'll trade Vazquez or Leon at some point.

[moonslav59]

I'm not confident he can ops 650. Farrell's comment on Thursday was as of now he is our opening day catcher. That does not portend a lot o f confidence.

 

He may be below .650 or even do as badly as the 500's, but we know he's very good defensively, and there's just as much reason to expect .650 plus as .650 minus.

[Fisk]

He may be below .650 or even do as badly as the 500's, but we know he's very good defensively, and there's just as much reason to expect .650 plus as .650 minus.

 

I don't think there is a reason to expect 650 plus except for a 2 month sample.

[Kimmi]

I don't think there is a reason to expect 650 plus except for a 2 month sample.

 

Is it possible that he made some mechanical adjustments? If his BABIP were .400 with no difference in his line drive rate or his hard contact rate, then I would agree that it was all a fluke or randomness.

 

What about his improved line drive rate though? Doesn't that suggest that there's a possibility that he may have become a better hitter and that it wasn't all randomness? And remember, I am the queen of randomness.

 

I'm not saying that he'll be 2016 good, but I do think he will be well improved from his 2015 numbers.

[Hugh2]

There are countless ways to adjust the order but I'd be pretty adamant about Pedroia and Betts going 1 and 2

[Hugh2]

I'd expect Benintendi to slide up into a top 1-3 spot once he is more proven. I have a high level of confidence in him but we've seen rookies start off slow and take time to adjust, even when they've had a SSS of success after their first call up.

 

Pedroia, Bogaerts, Betts, JBJ! We've seen this time and time again. I'm not saying he isn't good enough to hit the ground running but let's not put that pressure on him on opening day.

[Fisk]

Is it possible that he made some mechanical adjustments? If his BABIP were .400 with no difference in his line drive rate or his hard contact rate, then I would agree that it was all a fluke or randomness.

 

What about his improved line drive rate though? Doesn't that suggest that there's a possibility that he may have become a better hitter and that it wasn't all randomness? And remember, I am the queen of randomness.

 

I'm not saying that he'll be 2016 good, but I do think he will be well improved from his 2015 numbers.

 

Could be improved from 15, but I still remember September and October where he looked totally lost. Would be nice if he can find that midrange point from his two month surge to 2015.

[notin]

Is it possible that he made some mechanical adjustments? If his BABIP were .400 with no difference in his line drive rate or his hard contact rate, then I would agree that it was all a fluke or randomness.

 

What about his improved line drive rate though? Doesn't that suggest that there's a possibility that he may have become a better hitter and that it wasn't all randomness? And remember, I am the queen of randomness.

 

I'm not saying that he'll be 2016 good, but I do think he will be well improved from his 2015 numbers.

 

He might be better than his 2015 numbers, But even his improved line drive rate suggests an xBABIP closer to .310-.320, far below last year's .392...