2017 Rotation

[moonslav59]

I firmly believe this has happened in a small minority of cases. There's also players who would have improved this team that we judt didn't even go after because of their reputation for fragility. Not the best example given his performance last season but Zack Greinke springs to mind.

 

We also ended up paying Renteria $30M for 1 year of play--needing to trade him for the same type of situation.

[Emp9]

I can understand not trusting Clay. I don't trust Clay. But I know the potential is there, and even if he doesn't pitch a full season, he has a good chance of being worth $13 million.

 

Just as I have said about Porcello's contract that even if he pitched like crap for the entire 4 years, I would do that extension every time, the same holds for Clay's option. It's well worth the risk.

 

If Clay wasn't assumed to be our 7th SP, I would agree with you. I think that's why they picked up his option in the first place. Then things changed.

[Jack Flap]

Slash, there's nothing wrong with having high expectations, but the vitriol that so often seems to come from them not being met is really uncalled for. (That's not a criticism of you specifically, but of a lot of Red Sox fans and some of the Boston media as well.)

[Bellhorn04]

i have an idea. when you sign one of the alltime biggest FA contracts for a starting pitcher dont come out and suck for the first 2 or 3 months of your 7 year contract. i know, i know. that is really asking a lot. let me save you the time for all the excuses.

he needs to acclimate.

he needs to get used to the ballpark.

BABIP!

throwback uniforms

too much media!

so many rabid fans!

JFC this feels like postseason atmosphere and it's only April! wilt.

 

Josh Beckett and Rick Porcello also fell well below expectations their first year in Boston. To a lesser degree, so did Kimbrel. It does seem to be a major adjustment for many pitchers.

[moonslav59]

Josh Beckett and Rick Porcello also fell well below expectations their first year in Boston. To a lesser degree, so did Kimbrel. It does seem to be a major adjustment for many pitchers.

 

As did Matt Clement, Dice-K, Brad Penny, John Smoltz, John Lackey and Ryan Dempster.

[Slasher9]

fair enough. like i have said all along...i pray he proves me wrong. i love having a guy on my team that i can count on a W every 5th day. i would be thrilled if Price becomes that guy. we all saw his mechanics vary big time throughout the season last year. hopefully he settled on something this offseason that he has success with.

[moonslav59]

fair enough. like i have said all along...i pray he proves me wrong. i love having a guy on my team that i can count on a W every 5th day. i would be thrilled if Price becomes that guy. we all saw his mechanics vary big time throughout the season last year. hopefully he settled on something this offseason that he has success with.

 

(I feel more confidence in Price than Porcello this year. I like Sale better than both, but he might need a few months to adjust as well.

[mvp 78]

As did Matt Clement, Dice-K, Brad Penny, John Smoltz, John Lackey and Ryan Dempster.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=271&position=P&type=&gds=2005-04-05&gde=2005-07-16&season=

 

Clement was 10-3 prior to getting hit in the head with a line drive and was on the All Star roster. I don't think many people believe he fell lower than expectations as I don't believe expectations were super high to begin with. Penny and Smoltz were 5th men in the rotation type signings. When they didn't work out, nobody was surprised.

[moonslav59]

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=271&position=P&type=&gds=2005-04-05&gde=2005-07-16&season=

 

Clement was 10-3 prior to getting hit in the head with a line drive and was on the All Star roster. I don't think many people believe he fell lower than expectations as I don't believe expectations were super high to begin with. Penny and Smoltz were 5th men in the rotation type signings. When they didn't work out, nobody was surprised.

 

No, but all struggled in their first year, although Clements was more injury-related than any adjustment period excuse.

[mvp 78]

DiceK had a career high 2.9 WAR in 2007. I think he was ok those first two years.

[Eddy Ballgame]

No, but all struggled in their first year, although Clements was more injury-related than any adjustment period excuse.

 

I'm not sure what you were expecting out of Dempster, who was signed as a 5th starter, but he made 29 starts totaling 170 innings and the Sox went 17-12 in his starts on the way to a World Series Championship.

 

When you factor in that multiple people in the organization have said publicly that he was signed for his off the field intangibles as much as anything else, and I'm not sure you'd find anyone who was affiliated with that organization at the time who would call Dempster anything less than a "great" signing.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure what you were expecting out of Dempster, who was signed as a 5th starter, but he made 29 starts totaling 170 innings and the Sox went 17-12 in his starts on the way to a World Series Championship.

 

When you factor in that multiple people in the organization have said publicly that he was signed for his off the field intangibles as much as anything else, and I'm not sure you'd find anyone who was affiliated with that organization at the time who would call Dempster anything less than a "great" signing.

 

His WAR was between 2.5 and 4.7 the previous 5 seasons. It was 0.5 in 2013.

[moonslav59]

DiceK had a career high 2.9 WAR in 2007. I think he was ok those first two years.

 

Too much xFIP in WAR.

 

His ERA went from 4.40 to 2.90 from year 1 to year 2. (ERA- from 95 to 64), but your point is well taken. He clearly did worse after his first 2 years, so he should not be included in the "slow adjuster" category.

[Eddy Ballgame]

His WAR was between 2.5 and 4.7 the previous 5 seasons. It was 0.5 in 2013.

 

Which is why the next time "WAR" is the sole determining factor in a player's total value will be the first.

[moonslav59]

Which is why the next time "WAR" is the sole determining factor in a player's total value will be the first.

 

I like WAR, but I don't use it as much as ERA- and WHIP for pitchers.

[mvp 78]

Too much xFIP in WAR.

 

His ERA went from 4.40 to 2.90 from year 1 to year 2. (ERA- from 95 to 64), but your point is well taken. He clearly did worse after his first 2 years, so he should not be included in the "slow adjuster" category.

 

I think the bigger issue with the WAR calc there was the additional innings he pitched in 2007. In 2008, he had a little time off due to injury.

[moonslav59]

I think the bigger issue with the WAR calc there was the additional innings he pitched in 2007. In 2008, he had a little time off due to injury.

 

Yes, but I don't disagree that added IP adds value.

 

The 33 IP were a bif part of the higher WAR, but so was the 4.17 xFIP vs 4.64 his second year.

 

He only started 3 more games in 2007 vs 2008, but he lasted longer in 2007, which does have value.

[Eddy Ballgame]

I like WAR, but I don't use it as much as ERA- and WHIP for pitchers.

 

Sometimes you need to get past the stats when assessing value. Ryan Dempster is an ideal example of that. When it comes to stats, I like to look at game logs to see how often a pitcher kept his team in the game.

 

David Price took a 3-0 shutout into the 7th against KC in game 2 of the ALCS a few years ago. He was pretty gassed, but his manager left him in and he gave up 5 runs in the 7th. The "E.R.A." says he was terrible, but it wasn't quite the case.

Edited January 17, 2017 by Eddy Ballgame

[Dojji]

Yes, but I don't disagree that added IP adds value.

 

Would you like to rephrase that? I think I'm seeing where you were trying to go with that, but if I'm right, you could have worded your point better.

 

It seems to me that especially for a quality SP, more innings do matter a lot. The more innings your rotation pitches the less innings your middle relief tends to need to work. I think I see an argument you might have been trying to make that other elements can atone for poor durability, or that poor durability alone doesn't damn a strong contribution when the player is playing, but unless the middle relief is both unquestionably superior to the starter, and unquestionably underworked, it's hard to make the assessment that durability isn't one of the single most important traits a starting pitcher can bring to the table.

[moonslav59]

Sometimes you need to get past the stats when assessing value. Ryan Dempster is an ideal example of that. When it comes to stats, I like to look at game logs to see how often a pitcher kept his team in the game.

 

Compared to his previous 5 seasons, Ryan did not do as well in his year with Boston. I watched every one of his games pitched. He did okay, but not nearly as well as before.

 

I get the clubhouse stuff, but on the field, he declined.

[moonslav59]

Would you like to rephrase that? I think I'm seeing where you were trying to go with that, but if I'm right, you could have worded your point better.

 

It seems to me that especially for a quality SP, more innings do matter a lot. The more innings your rotation pitches the less innings your middle relief tends to need to work. I think I see an argument you might have been trying to make that other elements can atone for poor durability, or that poor durability alone doesn't damn a strong contribution when the player is playing, but unless the middle relief is both unquestionably superior to the starter, and unquestionably underworked, it's hard to make the assessment that durability isn't one of the single most important traits a starting pitcher can bring to the table.

 

Yea, the dreaded double negative, but we are in agreement.

[Eddy Ballgame]

Yea, the dreaded double negative, but we are in agreement.

 

I'll agree that he "declined" from previous years, which had to be expected for several factors, but I don't know how you can say that "he fell well below expectations."

[moonslav59]

I'll agree that he "declined" from previous years, which had to be expected for several factors, but I don't know how you can say that "he fell well below expectations."

 

Maybe not "well below", but he did decline quite a bit.

[Kimmi]

Agreed...like I've said before, give me the most talented roster to get through the regular season with, and I'll be able to go into October with confidence every time. I know it's popular to think of the postseason as an entity all to its own, but putting as much emphasis on 3.1 innings out of 230+ last year (or Price's 66.2 career playoff innings spread out over nearly a decade) as some people do is simply silly.

 

Everyone is aware of Price's postseason stats and would like to see him pitch better...and my guess would be that no one is more keenly aware of this than him. I just don't see the need to continually harp on it in every thread, or hound him about it on social media the way some fans apparently do. (I remember reading after we acquired Sale that he doesn't have a Twitter account...probably wise on his part.)

 

Very good post Jack.

[Kimmi]

If Clay wasn't assumed to be our 7th SP, I would agree with you. I think that's why they picked up his option in the first place. Then things changed.

 

When his first option was picked up for the 2015 season, he wasn't anywhere near the 7th SP. I considered him to be our #2 starter going into the season.

[Kimmi]

(I feel more confidence in Price than Porcello this year. I like Sale better than both, but he might need a few months to adjust as well.

 

I feel more confidence in Price than Porcello also, and I'm a huge Porcello fan. Price will be fine.

[moonslav59]

I feel more confidence in Price than Porcello also, and I'm a huge Porcello fan. Price will be fine.

 

Porcello will be fine too.

[Emp9]

The Red Sox and Drew Pomeranz are locked in an arbitration stalemate - FanSided

https://apple.news/Ajb1NiV2aPdqJro3gqKapdQ

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox and Drew Pomeranz are locked in an arbitration stalemate - FanSided

https://apple.news/Ajb1NiV2aPdqJro3gqKapdQ

 

Good read. I wonder if the change of catcher moving from SD to BOS made any difference. I say this because he had a wild differential in SD while putting up those great numbers in 2016 there.

 

with Derek Norris:1.56 ERA and .499 OPS against in 313 PAs against

 

w. C. Bethancout: 6.00 ERA and .738 OPS against in 98 PAs against

 

2015:

w S Vogt 3.16/.576 (202 PAs)

w Phegley 5.22/.778 (134)

 

Edited January 18, 2017 by moonslav59

[notin]

As did Matt Clement, Dice-K, Brad Penny, John Smoltz, John Lackey and Ryan Dempster.

 

Clement was an All Star his first season in Boston. .