2017 Rotation

[notin]

I'd like to see Pomeranz in the opening day rotation to see what he's got, basically.

 

I'd like to see either Pomeranz in the bullpen (where you can never have too much help) or Rodriguez in AAA.

 

I don't see why most people are so down on Steven Wright in the rotation...

[notin]

Well if that's true and is any indication of what we can expect from Pomeranz then that makes the trade for him look even worse.

 

It was a pretty dumb trade to begin with. Granted, it was done with 2017/2018 in mind, but his inexperience as a starter really didn't make him an ideal candidate at the present, let alone going forward...

[moonslav59]

I'd like to see either Pomeranz in the bullpen (where you can never have too much help) or Rodriguez in AAA.

 

I don't see why most people are so down on Steven Wright in the rotation...

 

I think it's the whole aversion to the knuckle ballers.

[Bellhorn04]

I think it's the whole aversion to the knuckle ballers.

 

Yeah, that's probably part of it. With knuckleballers there are some other factors that come into play. Atmospheric conditions, passed balls etc. Every outings is a bit of an adventure.

[moonslav59]

It was a pretty dumb trade to begin with. Granted, it was done with 2017/2018 in mind, but his inexperience as a starter really didn't make him an ideal candidate at the present, let alone going forward...

 

I think 2017-2018 was a big reason we pulled the trigger, but we needed a starter at the time.

 

We had already started O'Sullivan 4 games in early May (6.75 ERA), Owens 3 starts at 5.11, Roenis Ellis once (15.88)

 

In early July Buch had a 5.91 ERA in 13 starts, Kelly was at 8.46 ERA in 6 starts and even Price had an ERA over 4.60.

 

We were willing to give up Espi due to the 2 more years of team control on Pom, but had we not gotten Pom, we were going to get somebody.

 

Too bad we couldn't have made the Sale trade last July- maybe even subbing Espi for Kopech & Basabe or Kopech & Diaz.

[moonslav59]

Yeah, that's probably part of it. With knuckleballers there are some other factors that come into play. Atmospheric conditions, passed balls etc. Every outings is a bit of an adventure.

 

I totally disagree. Wright has had fewer horrible starts than Pom and ERod. He's been amazingly consistent as a starter.

 

I found the same thing with Wake years ago.

 

All pitchers have times when they "lose it" or "don't have it". I don't see where knuckleballers have those times more often. Although they may have secondary pitches that can not be true fallback pitches, they tend to have good and bad days about the same rate as other pitchers...at least with Wake and Wright.

[S5Dewey]

Yeah, that's probably part of it. With knuckleballers there are some other factors that come into play. Atmospheric conditions, passed balls etc. Every outings is a bit of an adventure.

 

IMO Moon nailed it when he said that we have an aversion to K-ballers, and it's not just the things Bell listed. We're suspicious of anything out of the norm. When a "normal" pitcher has a couple of rough outings in a row we tend to be patient with him, saying that it's just a slump and he'll probably come back to his norm. When a k-ball pitcher has a couple of rough outings the immediate suspicion is that he's "lost it", he can't be trusted any more, and his career is probably over. For some reason there's always a lot more trepidation over a couple of bad starts for a k-baller than for someone who throws FB's and curves.

 

Edit: Moon was posting while I was typing. It seems that we're on the same page with this.

[moonslav59]

IMO Moon nailed it when he said that we have an aversion to K-ballers, and it's not just the things Bell listed. We're suspicious of anything out of the norm. When a "normal" pitcher has a couple of rough outings in a row we tend to be patient with him, saying that it's just a slump and he'll probably come back to his norm. When a k-ball pitcher has a couple of rough outings the immediate suspicion is that he's "lost it", he can't be trusted any more, and his career is probably over. For some reason there's always a lot more trepidation over a couple of bad starts for a k-baller than for someone who throws FB's and curves.

 

Edit: Moon was posting while I was typing. It seems that we're on the same page with this.

 

The other factor that is often ignored or minimized is how much a knuckle ball messes with the opponent's timing. One game facing Wright can take a hot hitter out of his comfort zone and into a confused state of mind for the next few pitchers he faces.

 

I once did a study on starting pitcher ERA after a Wake start as compared to that season's overall ERA. It was pretty amazing how much better starters did right after a Wake start.

 

[Bellhorn04]

I totally disagree. Wright has had fewer horrible starts than Pom and ERod. He's been amazingly consistent as a starter.

 

That's a major overstatement. Last year he had a 2.01 ERA in his first 14 starts and a 5.55 ERA in his last 10 starts. If that's amazingly consistent I'd hate to see inconsistent.

[moonslav59]

That's a major overstatement. Last year he had a 2.01 ERA in his first 14 starts and a 5.55 ERA in his last 10 starts. If that's amazingly consistent I'd hate to see inconsistent.

 

He has a lower percent of blow-outs in his games started vs Pom and Erod.

 

One of his last 10 starts saw him allow more than 5 runs. 3 of 10 with 5 or more runs allowed. If that's his worst stretch to label him "inconsistent", I'll take it.

 

Both Pom and Wright saw their second half ERAs plunge. Injuries probably had something to do with both downturns.

 

The fact is Wright has an amazing percent of his starts allowing 3 or less ERs and 4 or less over his career:

3 or less/ 4 or less

2016: 18/24 and 20/24

2015: 8/9 and 8/9

2014: 1/1 and 1/1

2013: 1/1 and 1/1

career: 28/35 (80%) and 30/35(86%)

 

Pomeranz (playing half his games in huge parks)

2011: 3/4 and 3/4

2012: 15/22 and 18/22

2013: 2/4 and 3/4

2014: 8/10 and 8/10

2015: 3/8 and 3/8

2016: 24/30 and 24/30

career: 55/78 (71%) and 59/78(76%)

 

Pom has had his chance "to prove" what he can do. He's done a fine job as a starter and a reliever.

 

If anyone deserves a longer look, it's Wright. He has a better good start percentage, and in my mind, that's the measure of consistency.

 

[notin]

That's a major overstatement. Last year he had a 2.01 ERA in his first 14 starts and a 5.55 ERA in his last 10 starts. If that's amazingly consistent I'd hate to see inconsistent.

 

If Wright is too inconsistent for you, how is Pomeranz acceptable?

[Bellhorn04]

If Wright is too inconsistent for you, how is Pomeranz acceptable?

 

I didn't say I thought Pomeranz was a better starter than Wright. Their numbers are pretty close, the samples are pretty small. All I've said is that I'd like to see what Pomeranz can do out of the gate. If he busts put him back in the pen and keep him there as the swing guy for the rest of 2017-2018.

 

Just a personal preference for how I'd like to see things go, honestly. You and moon have good arguments as well. And all our opinions will be given the same weight by the Sox FO.

[moonslav59]

I didn't say I thought Pomeranz was a better starter than Wright. Their numbers are pretty close, the samples are pretty small. All I've said is that I'd like to see what Pomeranz can do out of the gate. If he busts put him back in the pen and keep him there as the swing guy for the rest of 2017-2018.

 

Just a personal preference for how I'd like to see things go, honestly. You and moon have good arguments as well. And all our opinions will be given the same weight by the Sox FO.

 

This is really a close call, and with nothing better to talk about, we turn this near 50-50 choice into something bigger than it is. I get your point, but to me there's a flaw in your plan. Pom has been given so many chances to win a rotation slot. He even got 30 starts last year. The whole "let's see what he's got" argument makes more sense with Wright, who has had two very good seasons in a row where his season was cut short by injuries.

 

The second part of the argument should be about who is more likely to be able to pitch over 170 IP and still be good to go for the playoffs. Pomeranz has had years to prove he can go 170 or 180+ IP and still be sharp. Here's his IP totals:

 

Yr MLB minors total

11 18.1 101.0 119.1

12 96.2 50.2 147.1

13 21.1 91.0 112.0

14 69.0 46.1 115.1

15 86.0 2.0 88.0

16 170.2 0.0 170.2

Granted, he was in the pen for some of this time, but so has Wright. Pom's one season going over 148 IP saw him run out of steam. Why use this year to see if he can be strong after 180 IP in the playoffs? Why not rest him to start the year and not have to find out?

 

Wright has a much longer professional career. While he has never been over 170, it seems he gets hurt not runs out of steam. He's had 5 seasons over 130 IP to Pom's 2. Why not start Wright. If he gets hurt, Pom is ready to step in and hopefully not end up going over 170 IP this year by playoff time?

 

07 0.0 114.1 114.1

08 0.0 147.2 147.2

09 0.0 87.0 87.0

10 0.0 75.1 75.1

11 0.0 133.2 133.2

12 0.0 141.2 141.2

13 13.1 135.1 148.2

14 21.0 100.0 121.0

15 72.2 52.0 124.2

16 156.2 0.0 156.2

 

What worries me is the that even if Pom does great, he may be over 190 IP by playoff time and hit the wall. I'd feel much better, if he took over a starting rotation slot in May or June and had 125 IP by season end and is in the middle of a hot streak like he had in SD last summer.

 

The third aspect of importance is who is the better reliever. Both have an ample sample size of relief. Here are those numbers:

 

Wright

as RP'er: 3.88 ERA/ 1.397 WHIP/ .721 OPS against (49 IP)

as SP'er: 3.52 ERA/ 1.242 WHIP/ .660 OPS against (215 IP)

2009 AA: RP 1.61/ SP 4.50

2010 AA: RP 4.47/ SP 3.24

 

Pomeranz

as RP'er: 2.10/ 0.995/ .543 (64.1 IP)

as SP'er: 4.07/ 1.327/ .710 (398 IP)

 

 

Again, we're arguing over minute differences. I have no issues with those posters who prefer Pom. I think either one will do fine. I just like Pom better as a RP'er and don't want to have to test his stamina, if we don't have to.

 

 

[Kimmi]

I have high hopes fo Pom as a starter, but I have very slightly higher hopes for Wright, and I think putting a knuckleballer in the rotation greatly aids the guy starting the game after him.

 

Pom's history as a reliever vs Wright's history greatly unbalances the choice, in my opinion.

 

Pom's durability and stamina also plays into the choice to start him off in the pen to limit his total IP over the season.

 

However, I'm fine with any of the 2. The third guy will get his chances.

 

I have no problem with Wright being in the rotation over the other two. My contention has always been to keep as much depth and flexibility as possible, in both the rotation and the bullpen.

 

Good arguments have been made for and against each of the 3 being in the rotation.

 

I'm fine with any of the 3. It's a good problem to have.

[moonslav59]

I have no problem with Wright being in the rotation over the other two. My contention has always been to keep as much depth and flexibility as possible, in both the rotation and the bullpen.

 

Good arguments have been made for and against each of the 3 being in the rotation.

 

I'm fine with any of the 3. It's a good problem to have.

 

True enough, but with our pen being somewhat shaky or at least questionable, I want the one left out of the rotation in the pen--not AAA.

 

[mvp 78]

True enough, but with our pen being somewhat shaky or at least questionable, I want the one left out of the rotation in the pen--not AAA.

 

 

I don't really want Wright or ERod hanging out in the pen. If Pomeranz is in the rotation, either Wright or ERod should be starting in AAA.

[moonslav59]

I don't really want Wright or ERod hanging out in the pen. If Pomeranz is in the rotation, either Wright or ERod should be starting in AAA.

 

Our pen cannot afford the luxury of not accepting Wright or Pom into the fold. ERod is another story. I don't think we should mess with his routine.

[mvp 78]

Our pen cannot afford the luxury of not accepting Wright or Pom into the fold. ERod is another story. I don't think we should mess with his routine.

 

If an injury to a SP occurs, I don't want to have to hear about nonsense like "well, now we need to build Wright's arm strength back up so that he can start." I don't believe he has a high ceiling sitting in the bullpen, so I'd rather him just working on his stuff in AAA than being used in blowouts.

[Dojji]

Does Wright even have options at this point? He was called up to the majors in all of 13, 14 and 15.

 

Also, as the oldest of the three candidates for the 2 rotation slots, Wright is the guy I'm least eager to screw around with in terms of jerking him around from one assignment to another.

 

Personally I suspect that with injury concerns still on the horizon, E-Rod is the guy with things to prove and he'll be the guy who has to earn his way into a rotation spot.

[cp176]

Does Wright even have options at this point? He was called up to the majors in all of 13, 14 and 15.

 

Also, as the oldest of the three candidates for the 2 rotation slots, Wright is the guy I'm least eager to screw around with in terms of jerking him around from one assignment to another.

 

Personally I suspect that with injury concerns still on the horizon, E-Rod is the guy with things to prove and he'll be the guy who has to earn his way into a rotation spot.

 

No one has come out and said anything for obvious reasons but I have to believe that E-Rod's bosses have to be concerned about his planning to pitch in the WBC. If he is healthy, he could be very good if he isn't, not so much. He is taking a risk if he pitches in the WBC. Whatever comes of it, he is the one who ultimately has to live with the risks.

[moonslav59]

Our pen finished strongly last year, but it could all be a mirage.

 

We lost 3 of our top RP'ers (Uehara, Ziegler and Tazawa) and replaced them with Thornburg and hopes of an early return to form by Smith.

 

Kimbrel showed regression last year-- his 4th straight significant jump in WHIP (.088> .091> 1.06> 1.09). We may need a closer this year.

 

Thornburg & Smith have had one very good year in the bigs each--just one.

 

Kelly has fooled us with late season heroics before.

 

Ross has been steady as can be, but for some reason has never been promoted to 8th inning status.

 

Barnes showed signs of growth and glimpses of greatness last year, but he's still just a promise.

 

The rest are big question marks: Elias, Hembree, Abad, Scott, Workman, N Ramirez, Martin, Ysla, Olmos or a starter turned RP'er like Owens or Johnson.

 

This pen is not as good as some seem to think it is. We were somewhere between 8th and 12th last year in many major RP'er stats or metrics, but we were also very close to being number 16 in several categories of measurement. Losing 3 key RP'ers and replacing them with one is not encouraging.

 

Adding Pom or Wright to the pen, if possible, could go a long way towards improving the pen. Either can eat a lot of innings in the middle of a game and keep us competitive after a starter struggles. Who is our big middle inning/long relief guy now? Barnes? Kelly? We may need Kelly for the 8th as a set-up man. I'd feel much better limiting Kelly and Barnes exposure this year. Assuming a healthy rotation, we could get 100+ IP from Pom or Wright out of the pen. With our rotation expected to go deeper into games this year over last, thos 100 IP would take a lot of stress off the others.

[moonslav59]

If an injury to a SP occurs, I don't want to have to hear about nonsense like "well, now we need to build Wright's arm strength back up so that he can start." I don't believe he has a high ceiling sitting in the bullpen, so I'd rather him just working on his stuff in AAA than being used in blowouts.

 

Middle and long relief need not be blow-out innings. With a guy like Pom or Wright in the pen, a manager can afford to yank a struggling starter before it reaches blow-out proportions.

 

I'm not going to try and compare either of these two to Andrew Miller, but Miller got over 75 IP last year in high leverage situations. With only Kimbrel and Thornburg looking like solid late inning RP'ers, we could use Pom or Wright to pitch from the 6th inning to the doorstep of our closer.

[mvp 78]

Does Wright even have options at this point? He was called up to the majors in all of 13, 14 and 15.

 

Also, as the oldest of the three candidates for the 2 rotation slots, Wright is the guy I'm least eager to screw around with in terms of jerking him around from one assignment to another.

 

Personally I suspect that with injury concerns still on the horizon, E-Rod is the guy with things to prove and he'll be the guy who has to earn his way into a rotation spot.

 

Wright has no options right now. We are all just spitballing. However, Farrell has stated that he would include Wright and Pomeranz in the rotation right now. Maybe that's why they were unconcerned about ERod's knee? Maybe they thought he'd begin the season in AAA anyway (2 options remaining)?

[mvp 78]

Middle and long relief need not be blow-out innings. With a guy like Pom or Wright in the pen, a manager can afford to yank a struggling starter before it reaches blow-out proportions.

 

I'm not going to try and compare either of these two to Andrew Miller, but Miller got over 75 IP last year in high leverage situations. With only Kimbrel and Thornburg looking like solid late inning RP'ers, we could use Pom or Wright to pitch from the 6th inning to the doorstep of our closer.

 

I don't think anyone wants to see Wright (a one pitch pitcher) in high leverage situations out of the pen. That sounds like a disaster to me.

[moonslav59]

If an injury to a SP occurs, I don't want to have to hear about nonsense like "well, now we need to build Wright's arm strength back up so that he can start." I don't believe he has a high ceiling sitting in the bullpen, so I'd rather him just working on his stuff in AAA than being used in blowouts.

 

Wright is out of options, and he shouldn't be in AAA even if he had some.

 

The guy has been very good for 2 years. Our pen is too weak (or lacking in depth) to have the luxury of putting highly skilled pitchers in AAA.

[moonslav59]

I don't think anyone wants to see Wright (a one pitch pitcher) in high leverage situations out of the pen. That sounds like a disaster to me.

 

Yeah, one pitcher RP'ers suck... like Mo.

 

I prefer Pom in the pen over Wright for several reasons that I've gone into detail to support. Here's the summary:

 

1) Wright has allowed 3 or less runs in 80% of his MLB starts. He's allowed 4 or less runs in 86% of his starts. Pom has a worse percent in both categories.

2) Pom has a much better record as a RP'er than Wright, and has multiple seasons where he jumped back and forth between RP'er and SP'er.

3) A knuckle ball pitcher is probably best used coming into an inning with no men on.

4) A knuckle ball pitcher often messes with opposing batters' timing to the point where the next starter benefits from following a knuckleballer.

[mvp 78]

Yeah, one pitcher RP'ers suck... like Mo.

 

I prefer Pom in the pen over Wright for several reasons that I've gone into detail to support. Here's the summary:

 

1) Wright has allowed 3 or less runs in 80% of his MLB starts. He's allowed 4 or less runs in 86% of his starts. Pom has a worse percent in both categories.

2) Pom has a much better record as a RP'er than Wright, and has multiple seasons where he jumped back and forth between RP'er and SP'er.

3) A knuckle ball pitcher is probably best used coming into an inning with no men on.

4) A knuckle ball pitcher often messes with opposing batters' timing to the point where the next starter benefits from following a knuckleballer.

 

The following conditions in which Wright is useless:

1. too humid

2. a chance of rain

3. his one pitch isn't working

 

I feel like Wright is perfectly fine as a #5, but using him multiple times a week in high leverage situations isn't the best fit for him.

 

Pom AND Wright will both be in the rotation. Farrell has confirmed this.

[a700hitter]

The following conditions in which Wright is useless:

1. too humid

2. a chance of rain

3. his one pitch isn't working

 

I feel like Wright is perfectly fine as a #5, but using him multiple times a week in high leverage situations isn't the best fit for him.

 

Pom AND Wright will both be in the rotation. Farrell has confirmed this.

And running the bases.

[mvp 78]

Wright has a poor track record of pitching out of the pen. http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=8185&position=P&season=0&split=8.2

 

He is far more consistent when starting. http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=8185&position=P&season=0&split=8.1

[mvp 78]

And running the bases.

 

Please, it's not 2016 anymore. Let's bury the dead already. This one stings too much.