2017 Rotation

[Emp9]

Wood,Urias,McCarthy 5.6

Roark,Ross,Cole 4.9

Harvey,Lugo,Gsellman 4.3

ERod,Pom,Wright 4.6

Tomlin,Bauer,Clevinger 3.7

Moore,Blach,Cain 4

Lackey,Montgomery,Brooks 5.3

 

LA 19.2

WSH 18.2

BOS 17.5

NYM 17.4

CHC 17.2

CLE 16.4

SFG 16

[cp176]

This reinforces one of my concerns about the WBC. A serious injury (and I'm not saying ERod's is serious) can derail a MLB club's entire season.

 

I understand a player's desire to represent his country, but at the same time the often millions of dollars they're getting for playing in the US Major Leagues should give them pause for making the decision to play in the WBC.

 

Too many people today want everything without compromise or sacrifice. Life hasn't worked that way for me. Porcello's statement about where his loyalty and primary commitment is should mean something. I'm sure E-Rod wants to support his country, be a Cy Young candidate, win the MVP as well as the World Series. He gets to decide what he ultimately does I guess but I hope he remembers who is responsible for the good life he has the opportunity to lead. If he is injured or slowed down at all by participating in the WBC, I doubt that he gets to make the trip north with the big club in the spring. A shame for both him and us.

[Emp9]

I'm a skeptical snake right now. FanGraphs has Buchholz projected WAR at 1.6 and Steven Wright's at 0.9. The article below is from July 28 about Wright's performance, particularly his main pitch (the knuckle) vs other pitcher's non-FB secondary pitch. I thought it was interesting, just ignore the last part about fantasy baseball because that's not why I'm posting it.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/steven-wright-should-float-on-ok/

 

 

My previous post (two posts above) was filling out the rest of our rotation piggybacking Moon's Team's top 3 SP post. I was curious to see what it looked like in print. It's pretty obvious Sale replacing Buch (or most pitchers for that matter) gives us a slight edge (+3.2). By itself thats substantial, but I happen to believe Wright (or Pom, or ERod) could have a better 2017 than Buch and lead to even bigger gains. What does everyone else think?

Edited January 1, 2017 by Emp9

[moonslav59]

I'm a skeptical snake[ATTACH=CONFIG]455[/ATTACH] right now. FanGraphs has Buchholz projected WAR at 1.6 and Steven Wright's at 0.9.

 

Probably because Wright is a 6th starter and Buch will be a 3-5 starter.

[moonslav59]

I thought it was interesting, just ignore the last part about fantasy baseball because that's not why I'm posting it.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/steven-wright-should-float-on-ok/

 

I used to argue the same with Wakefield. People continually argued his knuckleball was too unpredictable and you "never knew which Wake as going to show up".

 

I went back and calculated how many horrible starts he had as a percent and found his "blow up" rate was not worse than other starters with a similar ERAs, in fact he was better than the norm.

 

I think many people are biased against knuckleballers. They watch them pitch and think they are just lobbing the ball in there.

 

To me, when you see catchers having a difficult time catching a knuckler, that should not be viewed as a negative on the pitcher. Think of it this way: if a trained catcher is having difficulty catching a knuckleball with a big mitt, imagine how hard it is for a batter to hit it with a smaller round bat!

 

[Emp9]

Probably because Wright is a 6th starter and Buch will be a 3-5 starter.

 

Yeah, I guess that's the only way it could make sense. Less opportunities. I happen to think Wright will win the 5th spot in the rotation when ST is over. They listed him as 6th... we'll see about that.

[moonslav59]

Yeah, I guess that's the only way it could make sense. Less opportunities. I happen to think Wright will win the 5th spot in the rotation when ST is over. They listed him as 6th... we'll see about that.

 

I like Wright a little more than Pom, but maybe both end up as starters, if ERod's knee is still an issue.

[Kimmi]

Dombrowski stated just recently that he has Pomeranz and Wright penciled in for the #4 and #5 spots. I wonder if this has anything to do with ERod's injury, and if this is an indication that the injury might be more concerning than they've let on.

 

Either way, I think it's an odd statement for Dombrowski to make at this time, especially since he had previously stated that ERod would be in the rotation.

[Bellhorn04]

Dombrowski stated just recently that he has Pomeranz and Wright penciled in for the #4 and #5 spots. I wonder if this has anything to do with ERod's injury, and if this is an indication that the injury might be more concerning than they've let on.

 

Either way, I think it's an odd statement for Dombrowski to make at this time, especially since he had previously stated that ERod would be in the rotation.

 

Yeah, no clue why he'd say that. GM's are funny dudes sometimes.

[moonslav59]

Dombrowski stated just recently that he has Pomeranz and Wright penciled in for the #4 and #5 spots. I wonder if this has anything to do with ERod's injury, and if this is an indication that the injury might be more concerning than they've let on.

 

Either way, I think it's an odd statement for Dombrowski to make at this time, especially since he had previously stated that ERod would be in the rotation.

 

They're moving Price to closer.

 

LOL!

[Emp9]

It's a race of 3 for the final 2 rotation spots. I know they'd like to get the max value out of the Pom/Espi trade, but given the premium of RP as of late, it wouldn't surprise me if we saw Pomeranz in the BP (if ERod & Wright look like better options to start). If ERod ever tweaked his knee, December wasn't the worst time to do it imo. There's still a lot of time before the season. His knee is cause for some concern though. Are off-season stem cell injections legal in MLB?

[notin]

There was chatter about Pomeranz moving to the pen to reduce his IP workload and clear up the logjam. ..

[Kimmi]

Yeah, no clue why he'd say that. GM's are funny dudes sometimes.

 

As our friend JoeB likes to say, most GM types should never step in front of the microphone.

[Kimmi]

They're moving Price to closer.

 

LOL!

 

Price to the pen would make Slasher happy. LOL

[Kimmi]

It's a race of 3 for the final 2 rotation spots. I know they'd like to get the max value out of the Pom/Espi trade, but given the premium of RP as of late, it wouldn't surprise me if we saw Pomeranz in the BP (if ERod & Wright look like better options to start). If ERod ever tweaked his knee, December wasn't the worst time to do it imo. There's still a lot of time before the season. His knee is cause for some concern though. Are off-season stem cell injections legal in MLB?

 

I will be interested to see if Dombrowski will actually put Pomeranz in the pen. The optics of getting max value out of the trade should not be the reason why Pomeranz is kept in the rotation. There are a lot of good arguments for why he should be the one that goes to the pen over ERod or Wright.

 

That said, if Pomeranz can be a solid middle rotation starter, he will be worth more to us as a starter than he would be as a reliever. All other things being equal with ERod and Wright, I think it's in the team's best interest to see what we have in him as a starter before moving him to the pen.

[moonslav59]

I will be interested to see if Dombrowski will actually put Pomeranz in the pen. The optics of getting max value out of the trade should not be the reason why Pomeranz is kept in the rotation. There are a lot of good arguments for why he should be the one that goes to the pen over ERod or Wright.

 

That said, if Pomeranz can be a solid middle rotation starter, he will be worth more to us as a starter than he would be as a reliever. All other things being equal with ERod and Wright, I think it's in the team's best interest to see what we have in him as a starter before moving him to the pen.

 

But, the exact same could and should be said about Wright and a healthy ERod.

 

Since all 3 look deserving of a starting roll, to me, the deciding factor should then be who makes the better "swing man" of long relief/spot starter type?

 

That answer to that question is barely debatable. It is clearly Pomeranz.

 

I do not think saving face from the Espi-Pom trade is a significant factor in the decision. If they pick Pom, it will be because they think he's a better starter than Wright.

[Bellhorn04]

I'd like to see Pomeranz in the opening day rotation to see what he's got, basically.

[Kimmi]

But, the exact same could and should be said about Wright and a healthy ERod.

 

Since all 3 look deserving of a starting roll, to me, the deciding factor should then be who makes the better "swing man" of long relief/spot starter type?

 

That answer to that question is barely debatable. It is clearly Pomeranz.

 

I do not think saving face from the Espi-Pom trade is a significant factor in the decision. If they pick Pom, it will be because they think he's a better starter than Wright.

 

I agree that Pomeranz would make a better swing man than the others. That said, I would still consider putting ERod in AAA to start the season and picking up another reliever or two.

 

I also agree that saving face on the Pomeranz trade should not be a factor. Perhaps I have higher hopes for Pom as a starter than others do. I would like to see how he does in the rotation before putting him in the pen.

[Kimmi]

I'd like to see Pomeranz in the opening day rotation to see what he's got, basically.

 

You said that much more succinctly than I did.

[moonslav59]

I'd like to see Pomeranz in the opening day rotation to see what he's got, basically.

 

I would too, but I feel even stronger about what Wright's got.

 

A healthy ERod is ahead of both, in my book.

[moonslav59]

I agree that Pomeranz would make a better swing man than the others. That said, I would still consider putting ERod in AAA to start the season and picking up another reliever or two.

 

I also agree that saving face on the Pomeranz trade should not be a factor. Perhaps I have higher hopes for Pom as a starter than others do. I would like to see how he does in the rotation before putting him in the pen.

 

I have high hopes fo Pom as a starter, but I have very slightly higher hopes for Wright, and I think putting a knuckleballer in the rotation greatly aids the guy starting the game after him.

 

Pom's history as a reliever vs Wright's history greatly unbalances the choice, in my opinion.

 

Pom's durability and stamina also plays into the choice to start him off in the pen to limit his total IP over the season.

 

However, I'm fine with any of the 2. The third guy will get his chances.

[Bellhorn04]

I would too, but I feel even stronger about what Wright's got.

 

A healthy ERod is ahead of both, in my book.

 

What I'm really trying to say is that Pomeranz is still more of an X factor and it would be nice to find out sooner rather than later if he can be a solid starter in the AL East or not.

[Spudboy]

What I'm really trying to say is that Pomeranz is still more of an X factor and it would be nice to find out sooner rather than later if he can be a solid starter in the AL East or not.

 

That's what he is here for.

[moonslav59]

What I'm really trying to say is that Pomeranz is still more of an X factor and it would be nice to find out sooner rather than later if he can be a solid starter in the AL East or not.

 

But, why replace a known starter who has already shown what he can do in the AL East?

 

Wright had a very similar first half as Pom, but he did it against the best division in MLB. He did against teams with a DH. He did it while pitching half his games in one of baseball's best hitter's park while Pom was doing against teams with no DH in one of baseball's best pitcher's park.

 

I could see if we had a guy who was an unknown, then sure, give Pom a chance to prove what he can do, but Wright has already shown he can do it. He just needs to prove he can do it over a full season.

 

What worries me about Pom is that even if he does great out of the gate, he may run out of steam and not be helpful for the playoffs. It will not be easy to try and rest him during the season, if he is doing very well. Wright shouldn't need rest. That's why starting with Wright makes more sense.

 

If ERod is injured, then this argument is moot.

 

 

 

[Hugh2]

But, why replace a known starter who has already shown what he can do in the AL East?

 

Wright had a very similar first half as Pom, but he did it against the best division in MLB. He did against teams with a DH. He did it while pitching half his games in one of baseball's best hitter's park while Pom was doing against teams with no DH in one of baseball's best pitcher's park.

 

I could see if we had a guy who was an unknown, then sure, give Pom a chance to prove what he can do, but Wright has already shown he can do it. He just needs to prove he can do it over a full season.

 

What worries me about Pom is that even if he does great out of the gate, he may run out of steam and not be helpful for the playoffs. It will not be easy to try and rest him during the season, if he is doing very well. Wright shouldn't need rest. That's why starting with Wright makes more sense.

 

If ERod is injured, then this argument is moot.

 

 

 

 

The effect that ball park factors and the lack of a DH have are often overblown. They are very real, but not as significant as we often like to believe.

 

The Sox didn't trade a kid who was argued by some as the best pitching prospect in baseball for a guy who they didn't believe could be a starter.

 

Someone is going to have to be the odd man out and it will be unfair no matter who it is so we all have a good argument for these guys but I don't think Pomeranz is going to be the odd man out, at least not on opening day.

[moonslav59]

Starters vs AL East 2016:

(Over 15 IP unless noted)

TOR

1.53 Wright

2.49 Price

4.50 Porcello

5.40 ERod

(0.00 Pom 1.1 IP in relief)

NYY

2.05 Porcello

2.40 Wright

3.31 ERod

5.00 Pom (9IP)

7.89 Price

BAL

2.76 Wright

3.13 Porcello

3.71 Price

3.92 ERod

22.50 Pom (2 IP in 1 GS)

TBR

3.06 Pom

3.07 Porcello

4.15 Price

9.00 Wright (4 IP)

11.25 ERod (8 IP)

 

Career:

Wright

1.91 vs NYY (33)

2.19 vs TOR (25 IP)

2.45 vs BAL (22)

9.00 vs TBR in just 4 IP

 

Doesn't it make more sense to want to see if these numbers can hold up?

 

Why would anyone want to see if Pom can do better than what we already have?

 

Pom's (some small sample sizes- some the same as Wright) vs AL East:

2.32 TBR (23 IP)

2.52 NYY (25)

4.15 TOR (9)

8.10 BAL (7)

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

But, why replace a known starter who has already shown what he can do in the AL East?

 

Wright had a very similar first half as Pom, but he did it against the best division in MLB. He did against teams with a DH. He did it while pitching half his games in one of baseball's best hitter's park while Pom was doing against teams with no DH in one of baseball's best pitcher's park.

 

I could see if we had a guy who was an unknown, then sure, give Pom a chance to prove what he can do, but Wright has already shown he can do it. He just needs to prove he can do it over a full season.

 

What worries me about Pom is that even if he does great out of the gate, he may run out of steam and not be helpful for the playoffs. It will not be easy to try and rest him during the season, if he is doing very well. Wright shouldn't need rest. That's why starting with Wright makes more sense.

 

If ERod is injured, then this argument is moot.

 

 

Part of my thinking is that I feel more of a sense of urgency with Pomeranz, because he's only under control for 2 years. (Wright is under control for 4 years.) If Pomeranz is shuffled between rotation and bullpen throughout 2017 then we go into 2018, his final year of control, not really knowing what he's capable of as a starter.

 

I see your points, believe me. This is just my personal take on one of the few baseball things we have to talk about.

[moonslav59]

The effect that ball park factors and the lack of a DH have are often overblown. They are very real, but not as significant as we often like to believe.

 

The Sox didn't trade a kid who was argued by some as the best pitching prospect in baseball for a guy who they didn't believe could be a starter.

 

Someone is going to have to be the odd man out and it will be unfair no matter who it is so we all have a good argument for these guys but I don't think Pomeranz is going to be the odd man out, at least not on opening day.

 

I just wrote a long post showing a huge discrepancy between Sox and Padre home and away ERA & OPS against, inter league ERA & OPS against and numbers vs AL East and NL West, but it got erased when I clicked the "Post Quick Reply" button.

 

Trust me: it matters a lot.

 

[moonslav59]

Part of my thinking is that I feel more of a sense of urgency with Pomeranz, because he's only under control for 2 years. (Wright is under control for 4 years.) If Pomeranz is shuffled between rotation and bullpen throughout 2017 then we go into 2018, his final year of control, not really knowing what he's capable of as a starter.

 

I see your points, believe me. This is just my personal take on one of the few baseball things we have to talk about.

 

Both Wright and Pom will get ample opportunities to show their stuff and win or lose a rotation slot this year and next. April starts should be determined by who is the better starter and who is the better reliever and to a lesser extent, who has already proven he can pitch well in the AL and AL East and who has not.

 

Wright is better on every single criteria used, even if by a slight margin on some.

 

The only way the 6th starter will not get 20+ starts this year is if two thing both happen:

 

1) All 5 starters stay healthy enough to average 27 starts each.

2) All 5 starters do well enough to never need replacing.

 

I seriously doubt number one happens. In Sox history, I think it's only happened twice since 2003.

 

If number 2 happens and Wright is in the rotation, it would mean Wright is pitching well enough to not need to find out if Pom is better.

 

Of course, the same could be said, if Wright starts out in the pen, but here's where past pen numbers tilt the balance of the decision to preferring Pom in the pen to start the season. Couple this with Pom's stamina questions, and it makes total sense to me to start Pom in the pen to minimize the chances he runs out of steam in September and October.

 

Pom career 1st half /second half splits:

1st half: 3.20 (.636 OPS against)

2nd half: 4.60 (.755)

 

Let's do our best to ease Pom into a successful starting rotation slot by season's end- not season's beginning.

[Hugh2]

Both Wright and Pom will get ample opportunities to show their stuff and win or lose a rotation slot this year and next. April starts should be determined by who is the better starter and who is the better reliever and to a lesser extent, who has already proven he can pitch well in the AL and AL East and who has not.

 

Wright is better on every single criteria used, even if by a slight margin on some.

 

The only way the 6th starter will not get 20+ starts this year is if two thing both happen:

 

1) All 5 starters stay healthy enough to average 27 starts each.

2) All 5 starters do well enough to never need replacing.

 

I seriously doubt number one happens. In Sox history, I think it's only happened twice since 2003.

 

If number 2 happens and Wright is in the rotation, it would mean Wright is pitching well enough to not need to find out if Pom is better.

 

Of course, the same could be said, if Wright starts out in the pen, but here's where past pen numbers tilt the balance of the decision to preferring Pom in the pen to start the season. Couple this with Pom's stamina questions, and it makes total sense to me to start Pom in the pen to minimize the chances he runs out of steam in September and October.

 

Pom career 1st half /second half splits:

1st half: 3.20 (.636 OPS against)

2nd half: 4.60 (.755)

 

Let's do our best to ease Pom into a successful starting rotation slot by season's end- not season's beginning.

 

Well if that's true and is any indication of what we can expect from Pomeranz then that makes the trade for him look even worse.