2017 Rotation

[harmony]

His trade value if lower, but why would we want to trade him when his stock is low?

 

I trust the Sox medical team checked out Pom's injury condition, when they decided not to nix the deal. The post-trade low performance was likely injury related, so to me those two are the same side of the coin.

 

They traded for 2.5 years of Pom and have 2 years left. That's 20%, but it's also 1 out of 3 playoff cycles or 33%. I can see diminished value on that point, but not from Espi to O'Neill. Remember, I probably value Espi more than just about anyone else on this site, so there's that when weighing my opinion.

 

It's probably safe to say most Red Sox fans did not think Drew Pomeranz was worth Anderson Espinoza at the time of the July 14 trade. If Pomeranz was not worth Baseball America's 15th-ranked midseason prospect, was the lefthander worth only Tyler O'Neill, whom BA ranked 45th at midseason?

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/midseason-top-100-prospects/#OdA0f2SxPS2v1vqS.97

 

And if Pomeranz's trade value has dropped since, might Tyler O'Neill perhaps be an overpay at this point?

 

For what it's worth, MLB.com Prospect Watch now ranks Espinoza No. 13 and O'Neill No. 60 while John Sickels ranks Espinoza No. 30 and O'Neill No. 77:

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/9/24/12932956/top-100-prospects-end-of-2016

 

This year O'Neill was the MVP of the Double A Southern League in his age 21 season while Espinoza had a rocky Single A year in his age 18 season:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/tyler-oneill-pulled-rare-feat-double/#Q0czcEhp6JGGGTSi.97

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=espino005and

 

I doubt the Red Sox will trade Pomeranz this offseason after swapping him for a highly touted prospect.

 

At a Tampa Bay website several posters wrote that Tyler O'Neil would be a fair return for lefthander Drew Smyly, who like Drew Pomeranz comes with two years of team control.

 

http://www.draysbay.com/2016/12/14/13959116/potential-jake-odorizzi-landing-spots

 

Scroll toward bottom of comments. Of course, the Rays have a greater need for a righthand-hitting outfielder.

 

FanGraphs Depth Charts project Smyly with a 2017 WAR of 2.5 and Pomeranz with a 2017 WAR of 2.3:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11760&position=P

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11426&position=P

 

I found that interesting because I suspect the Mariners would prefer Smyly to Pomeranz.

Edited December 16, 2016 by harmony

[moonslav59]

It's probably safe to say most Red Sox fans did not think Drew Pomeranz was worth Anderson Espinoza at the time of the July 14 trade. If Pomeranz was not worth Baseball America's 15th-ranked midseason prospect, was the lefthander worth only Tyler O'Neill, whom BA ranked 45th at midseason?

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/midseason-top-100-prospects/#OdA0f2SxPS2v1vqS.97

 

And if Pomeranz's trade value has dropped since, might Tyler O'Neill perhaps be an overpay at this point?

 

For what it's worth, MLB.com Prospect Watch now ranks Espinoza No. 13 and O'Neill No. 60 while John Sickels ranks Espinoza No. 30 and O'Neill No. 77:

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/9/24/12932956/top-100-prospects-end-of-2016

 

This year O'Neill was the MVP of the Double A Southern League in his age 21 season while Espinoza had a rocky Single A year in his age 18 season:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/tyler-oneill-pulled-rare-feat-double/#Q0czcEhp6JGGGTSi.97

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=espino005and

 

I doubt the Red Sox will trade Pomeranz this offseason after swapping him for a highly touted prospect.

 

At a Tampa Bay website several posters wrote that Tyler O'Neil would be a fair return for lefthander Drew Smyly, who like Drew Pomeranz comes with two years of team control.

 

http://www.draysbay.com/2016/12/14/13959116/potential-jake-odorizzi-landing-spots

 

Scroll toward bottom of comments. Of course, the Rays have a greater need for a righthand-hitting outfielder.

 

FanGraphs Depth Charts project Smyly with a 2017 WAR of 2.5 and Pomeranz with a 2017 WAR of 2.3:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11760&position=P

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11426&position=P

 

I found that interesting because I suspect the Mariners would prefer Smyly to Pomeranz.

 

Good, then go for Smyly, because there's no way I give up Pom for O'Neill, and I'm all for rebuilding the farm.

[harmony]

Good, then go for Smyly, because there's no way I give up Pom for O'Neill, and I'm all for rebuilding the farm.

As a side note of no relevance, lefthanders Drew Smyly and Drew Pomeranz faced each other in college:

 

http://www.olemisssports.com/sports/m-basebl/recaps/050810aaa.html

[southpaw777]

After the Sox signed Mitch Moreland, my guess is that the Sox have absolutely no interest in Seth Smith whatsoever. If the Sox do decide to trade Buchholz prior to spring training, I'll also guess that they'll wan't some type of prospect in return.

 

They will most certainly look for a prospect. DD has already suggested that and just from what they were asking for from the Marlins. Seth Smith will NOT be an option if the Ms want Buch. They will have to let go of a prospect. Now, we could eat some $$ and/or add a prospect to any Buch deal to get a better return...

[southpaw777]

Do you agree that building a strong franchise begins with building and maintaining a strong farm system?

 

Its part of the equation, yes. I am also willing to see how DD handles it before I proclaim the future of the franchise is in big trouble. He has already tried to get a good prospect back for Buch and Im sure hes not done. This past years draft also looked very good to me. You know i respect and value your opinions whether I agree with them or not. You always have valid points...I just think Its premature to say weve "thrown away" the future for the here and now. Myself and many others dont believe that. Have we weakened our farm? Of course we did. But we also made the big club that much better for the 3-4 year window. I believe we have time to build the farm back up over the next few years, add to the already talented group of kids we still have, and keep the flow of prospects to MLB as consistent as possible.

[moonslav59]

They will most certainly look for a prospect. DD has already suggested that and just from what they were asking for from the Marlins. Seth Smith will NOT be an option if the Ms want Buch. They will have to let go of a prospect. Now, we could eat some $$ and/or add a prospect to any Buch deal to get a better return...

 

I think the Seth Smith rumors were from before the Moreland signing.

[moonslav59]

This past years draft also looked very good to me.

 

It did to me too, but two things:

 

1) We drafted 12th (Groome), 51st (Chatham), 88th (Anderson) and 118th (Dalbec). It probably won't be easy to have similar drafts going forward with picks like 25, 65, 100 and 130.

 

2) If we value Groome, Chatham and Dalbec so highly, then Espi should have been off-the-charts in value.

 

It's like I was hearing all along, "It's not so bad, because hardly any of the guys we traded were going to make it big anyways." And, now I'm hearing, "It's not so bad, because we have recently drafted some good kids that will help us later on."

[Bellhorn04]

 

It's like I was hearing all along, "It's not so bad, because hardly any of the guys we traded were going to make it big anyways." And, now I'm hearing, "It's not so bad, because we have recently drafted some good kids that will help us later on."

 

Or we've recently drafted some good kids that we'll be able to trade later on.

[moonslav59]

Or we've recently drafted some good kids that we'll be able to trade later on.

 

Good one.

 

Let's trade Chatham, Dalbec, Chavis & TBall for Quintana.

[Hugh2]

This past years draft also looked very good to me.

 

It did to me too, but two things:

 

1) We drafted 12th (Groome), 51st (Chatham), 88th (Anderson) and 118th (Dalbec). It probably won't be easy to have similar drafts going forward with picks like 25, 65, 100 and 130.

 

2) If we value Groome, Chatham and Dalbec so highly, then Espi should have been off-the-charts in value.

 

It's like I was hearing all along, "It's not so bad, because hardly any of the guys we traded were going to make it big anyways." And, now I'm hearing, "It's not so bad, because we have recently drafted some good kids that will help us later on."

 

All drafts look good the day after. The only high end prospect I see is Groome, besides that there are few guys who have potential in the bullpen but HEY if you develop a good reliever nowadays thats a big deal. One of those guys could refill your system one day.

 

Dalbec is a wildcard, he kind of reminds me of Kyri Washington but with potentially more value due to college experience and the possibility of moving to the mound. He could really add value to the system if he moves up the ranks and performs but he's so many levels to go and with the amount of swing an miss in his game there are many more paths to not making it than there are to making it for him.

 

Chatham was the #1 SS college prospect in a year that was very weak at that position. It would be really nice if he could exceed expectations, because we could lose Bogaerts in 3 years.

 

Best time to analyze a draft is 10 years later.

[Hugh2]

Good one.

 

Let's trade Chatham, Dalbec, Chavis & TBall for Quintana.

 

I think Quintana would look more like Groome/Devers/Dalbec/Mata

[moonslav59]

I think Quintana would look more like Groome/Devers/Dalbec/Mata

 

It was a joke aimed at exposing our future inability to make impact trades with no top prospects.

 

Devers will be at 3B (Pablo at 1B or DH in 1-2 years).

Groome will be needed to replace Porcello (or Pom & Buch).

Travis will replace Moreland and then HanRam/Pablo.

 

Who is left to trade for a top player?

[moonslav59]

All drafts look good the day after. The only high end prospect I see is Groome, besides that there are few guys who have potential in the bullpen but HEY if you develop a good reliever nowadays thats a big deal. One of those guys could refill your system one day.

 

Dalbec is a wildcard, he kind of reminds me of Kyri Washington but with potentially more value due to college experience and the possibility of moving to the mound. He could really add value to the system if he moves up the ranks and performs but he's so many levels to go and with the amount of swing an miss in his game there are many more paths to not making it than there are to making it for him.

 

Chatham was the #1 SS college prospect in a year that was very weak at that position. It would be really nice if he could exceed expectations, because we could lose Bogaerts in 3 years.

 

Best time to analyze a draft is 10 years later.

 

I'm not sure 10 years is necessary.

 

Our 2013 draft sucked. Maybe TBall (7th pick)will surprise us, but I seriously doub it. Stankiewicz (pick 45) is now ranked below 40 on soxprospects.com. Jon Denny is out of baseball (81st pick). Probably only Kyle Martin and Jake Romanski have ML hopes at this point. (Longhi? Witte?)

 

2012 may be harder to judge, but Marrero, Johnson and Light were all top 40 picks. Yuck! I dount Callahan or any of the 3 amount to anything special.

 

2011 is still hard to judge fully, and with 4 first round picks, expectations should be high, but I'll go out on a limb and say it was a very good to great draft:

19 Barnes

26 Swihart

36 Owens

40 Bradley

143 N Ramirez

172 Mookie Betts

292 Travis Shaw

 

WOW!

 

2010 can be fully judge right now: it SUCKED!!!!

20 K Vitek- out of baseball

36 Brentz- my first DFA choice

39 Ranaudo - at least we got Robbie Ross for him

57 Workman

110 S Coyle

Cechini

 

2009: BUST!

28 Reymond Fuentes

77 Alex Wilson

107 David Renroe

Hazelbaker/Hassan

 

2008: Can be judged as a bust or close to it

30 Kelly (Agon)

45 B Price

77 D Gibson

85 S Fife

108 Weiland

Vazquez/Westmoreland/Lava

 

2007: we drafted Rizzo in the 6th round- our last great pick outside of Betts.

Still...

55 hagadone

62 R Dent

84 H Morris

Middy

 

This was the draft 10 years ago.

 

 

[Hugh2]

It was a joke aimed at exposing our future inability to make impact trades with no top prospects.

 

Devers will be at 3B (Pablo at 1B or DH in 1-2 years).

Groome will be needed to replace Porcello (or Pom & Buch).

Travis will replace Moreland and then HanRam/Pablo.

 

Who is left to trade for a top player?

 

You know....I really thought it was. You just never know nowadays.

[Hugh2]

I'm not sure 10 years is necessary.

 

Our 2013 draft sucked. Maybe TBall (7th pick)will surprise us, but I seriously doub it. Stankiewicz (pick 45) is now ranked below 40 on soxprospects.com. Jon Denny is out of baseball (81st pick). Probably only Kyle Martin and Jake Romanski have ML hopes at this point. (Longhi? Witte?)

 

2012 may be harder to judge, but Marrero, Johnson and Light were all top 40 picks. Yuck! I dount Callahan or any of the 3 amount to anything special.

 

2011 is still hard to judge fully, and with 4 first round picks, expectations should be high, but I'll go out on a limb and say it was a very good to great draft:

19 Barnes

26 Swihart

36 Owens

40 Bradley

143 N Ramirez

172 Mookie Betts

292 Travis Shaw

 

WOW!

 

2010 can be fully judge right now: it SUCKED!!!!

20 K Vitek- out of baseball

36 Brentz- my first DFA choice

39 Ranaudo - at least we got Robbie Ross for him

57 Workman

110 S Coyle

Cechini

 

2009: BUST!

28 Reymond Fuentes

77 Alex Wilson

107 David Renroe

Hazelbaker/Hassan

 

2008: Can be judged as a bust or close to it

30 Kelly (Agon)

45 B Price

77 D Gibson

85 S Fife

108 Weiland

Vazquez/Westmoreland/Lava

 

2007: we drafted Rizzo in the 6th round- our last great pick outside of Betts.

Still...

55 hagadone

62 R Dent

84 H Morris

Middy

 

This was the draft 10 years ago.

 

 

 

My biggest concern with the drafts going forward is the hard cap on bonus pools. 2011 and prior you could pretty much spend whatever you wanted, so when a high school prospect with talent drops due to sign-ability or other various reasons it was easy for teams like the Red Sox to throw money at them in the later rounds. That system was still a crap shoot, but it will be even more so now after the first couple rounds.

 

Also, if you were to go back just a few more years you'd see another great draft in 2005. We also selected Pedroia in 2004 and Paps in 03.

[moonslav59]

My biggest concern with the drafts going forward is the hard cap on bonus pools. 2011 and prior you could pretty much spend whatever you wanted, so when a high school prospect with talent drops due to sign-ability or other various reasons it was easy for teams like the Red Sox to throw money at them in the later rounds. That system was still a crap shoot, but it will be even more so now after the first couple rounds.

 

Also, if you were to go back just a few more years you'd see another great draft in 2005. We also selected Pedroia in 2004 and Paps in 03.

 

That's the thing I think some posters are missing. We built our farm to top 2 or 3 status using a system that allowed us to take advantage of our high spending and accumulation of comp picks- often rewards for signing big free agents or trading for high-priced players and then letting them walk, only to replace them with new high-priced free agents or players from trades.

 

The great 2011 draft was all comp picks. That's not likely to happen again.

 

The system is way different, and we should be winning over the next few years, so all of this is going to make rebuilding near impossible "the old way". It's easy to sit back and say, "these guys are smart, they'll find a way to rebuild the farm" or "Henry has more money than God, so we can just go wsay over the luxury tax, if we need to."

 

Over the next 3-4 years, we can expect this:

 

1) No more top 20 picks like 7 Beni & 12 Groome.

 

2) More picks like these: 26 Chavis, 24 Marrero, 20 Vitek, 28 Fuentes, C Kelly, 27 Jason Place, 28 D Bard

 

3) No more comp picks like Kopech for Ellsbury, Johnson & Light for Papelbon, Barnes & Owens for VMart and JBJ & Swihart for Beltre, Ranaudo for Wagner, Bard for Damon, Ellsbury & Lowrie for OCab and Buchholz for Pedro.

 

4) Much less ability to sign international players like: Moncada $31.5M (C Sale) plus $31.5M tax, Espinoza $1.8M (Pomeranz), Devers $1.5M, J Diaz $600K (Sale), Margot $800K (Kimbrel), J Aro (C. Smith), Bogey $510K, Iggy $6.25M (Peavy > Hembree), F Montas (Peavy>Hembree), Tazawa $1.8M, Dice-K, Okajima, Doubront, A Sanchez, HanRam, Jorge de la Rosa (Schilling)

 

Look where we'd be without a lot of the players listed above.

 

That easily could be where we might be in 4-8 years.

[harmony]

FanGraphs columnist Jeff Sullivan was succinct in today's chat:

 

Yosemite Sam

10:36

Does Buccholz have significant trade value?

 

Jeff Sullivan

10:36

Heavens no

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-121616/

[moonslav59]

FanGraphs columnist Jeff Sullivan was succinct in today's chat:

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-121616/

 

I've been saying all along- a decent prospect even if in single A.

 

The salary relief would allow us to fill in where needed at the deadline.

[Bellhorn04]

That's the thing I think some posters are missing. We built our farm to top 2 or 3 status using a system that allowed us to take advantage of our high spending and accumulation of comp picks- often rewards for signing big free agents or trading for high-priced players and then letting them walk, only to replace them with new high-priced free agents or players from trades.

 

The great 2011 draft was all comp picks. That's not likely to happen again.

 

The system is way different, and we should be winning over the next few years, so all of this is going to make rebuilding near impossible "the old way". It's easy to sit back and say, "these guys are smart, they'll find a way to rebuild the farm" or "Henry has more money than God, so we can just go wsay over the luxury tax, if we need to."

 

Over the next 3-4 years, we can expect this:

 

1) No more top 20 picks like 7 Beni & 12 Groome.

 

2) More picks like these: 26 Chavis, 24 Marrero, 20 Vitek, 28 Fuentes, C Kelly, 27 Jason Place, 28 D Bard

 

3) No more comp picks like Kopech for Ellsbury, Johnson & Light for Papelbon, Barnes & Owens for VMart and JBJ & Swihart for Beltre, Ranaudo for Wagner, Bard for Damon, Ellsbury & Lowrie for OCab and Buchholz for Pedro.

 

4) Much less ability to sign international players like: Moncada $31.5M (C Sale) plus $31.5M tax, Espinoza $1.8M (Pomeranz), Devers $1.5M, J Diaz $600K (Sale), Margot $800K (Kimbrel), J Aro (C. Smith), Bogey $510K, Iggy $6.25M (Peavy > Hembree), F Montas (Peavy>Hembree), Tazawa $1.8M, Dice-K, Okajima, Doubront, A Sanchez, HanRam, Jorge de la Rosa (Schilling)

 

Look where we'd be without a lot of the players listed above.

 

That easily could be where we might be in 4-8 years.

 

What you are pointing out is how the system will be even more geared toward parity in the years ahead.

 

All the more reason, perhaps, to capitalize on our window of opportunity.

[mvp 78]

2007: we drafted Rizzo in the 6th round- our last great pick outside of Betts.

 

This was the draft 10 years ago.

 

 

 

Why can't they draft MVP candidates every year?!?!?!?!?

[moonslav59]

What you are pointing out is how the system will be even more geared toward parity in the years ahead.

 

All the more reason, perhaps, to capitalize on our window of opportunity.

 

That's one way to look at it, and I'm all in on the window approach, but the other approach would be to realize that it is going to be very hard to acquire top young prospects for the next few years, so why not keep all our top prospects, especially the ones a long way away, so we'll be ahead of the curve for next 7-8 years.

 

I'm not saying I'm for this alternative plan, but we could have traded JBJ when Beni was ready or when Margot was ready. Trade Pedey when Moncada was ready. Trade Leon when Swihart is ready. Trade Pom when Kopech is ready. Trade Porcello or Wright when Espi or Groome are ready. Keep stocking the farm by trading vets for prospects when the next prospect is ready. Of course, we wouldn't make all these trades, but you get the idea of keeping the farm well-stocked by circulating prospects for vets before they bolt or get too costly.

 

A balance might have been better, but not at the expense of the Sale of Thornburg deals.

 

Again, I'm not upset. I'm thrilled with where we're at right now, but I happen to think out extended future will suffer deeply at some point.

 

[moonslav59]

Why can't they draft MVP candidates every year?!?!?!?!?

 

We've drafted and two in the last 11 years and kept one. That's great! The problem is that's about all the real good (non MVP type) talent we've drafted, except for comp picks.

[Kimmi]

Its part of the equation, yes. I am also willing to see how DD handles it before I proclaim the future of the franchise is in big trouble. He has already tried to get a good prospect back for Buch and Im sure hes not done. This past years draft also looked very good to me. You know i respect and value your opinions whether I agree with them or not. You always have valid points...I just think Its premature to say weve "thrown away" the future for the here and now. Myself and many others dont believe that. Have we weakened our farm? Of course we did. But we also made the big club that much better for the 3-4 year window. I believe we have time to build the farm back up over the next few years, add to the already talented group of kids we still have, and keep the flow of prospects to MLB as consistent as possible.

 

Fair enough.

 

There are two things that contribute to my concern:

 

1. Dombrowski did not replenish the farm in Detroit

2. Dombrowsk's contract will be up at about the time our team is out of it's 'win now' window. Will he be that concerned with the state that he leaves the team in?

 

That said, Dombrowski does deserve a chance to improve our long term outlook. I am not happy with the way that it looks now, but I'll reserve my final judgment until that time has come.

[Kimmi]

What you are pointing out is how the system will be even more geared toward parity in the years ahead.

 

All the more reason, perhaps, to capitalize on our window of opportunity.

 

In my opinion, this is all the more reason to keep the strong farm system that we had.

[notin]

Why can't they draft MVP candidates every year?!?!?!?!?

 

We have two. Mookie Betts and you, mvp.

 

But your inclusioin might be more of an honorary thing

[Kimmi]

Why can't they draft MVP candidates every year?!?!?!?!?

 

The more prospects you have, in particular, the more high ranking prospects you have, the better the chances are that one of them turns into an MVP.

 

Theo understood this well. People often criticized him for hoarding prospects and draft picks, but there's a very good reason for it.

[moonslav59]

The more prospects you have, in particular, the more high ranking prospects you have, the better the chances are that one of them turns into an MVP.

 

Theo understood this well. People often criticized him for hoarding prospects and draft picks, but there's a very good reason for it.

 

You are right, and Theo also strategically made some big prospect trades here and there, when needed. The Schilling trade. The Beckett/Lowell trade. The Agon trade. But, if you notice, these weren't all done in a 13 month window. He spread them out to allow for a constant or near constant flow of prospects into the system while filling the holes with FAs and trades.

[oldtimer]

You are right, and Theo also strategically made some big prospect trades here and there, when needed. The Schilling trade. The Beckett/Lowell trade. The Agon trade. But, if you notice, these weren't all done in a 13 month window. He spread them out to allow for a constant or near constant flow of prospects into the system while filling the holes with FAs and trades.

 

Boston sports writers are saying the Sox were exploring a trade with the Marlins involving Buchholz for a pitching prospect. The Marlins refused at least for now.

[moonslav59]

Boston sports writers are saying the Sox were exploring a trade with the Marlins involving Buchholz for a pitching prospect. The Marlins refused at least for now.

 

That was a while ago. The Sox wanted Luis Castillo. To get him, I assume we'd have to pay much of Buch's contract. I doubt this deal happens, but I do think we are actively listening to offers for Buch.

[Kimmi]

You are right, and Theo also strategically made some big prospect trades here and there, when needed. The Schilling trade. The Beckett/Lowell trade. The Agon trade. But, if you notice, these weren't all done in a 13 month window. He spread them out to allow for a constant or near constant flow of prospects into the system while filling the holes with FAs and trades.

 

Exactly. And that's how it's done, boys.