2016-2017 Offseason Trade Speculation Thread

[a700hitter]

I heard the Guardians said they weren't interested.

whether or not the Guardians are interested, if the length of deals being offered to EE are 3 years or shorter, DD should make the move.

[moonslav59]

whether or not the Guardians are interested, if the length of deals being offered to EE are 3 years or shorter, DD should make the move.

 

It's not happening.

 

If there was any hope, we'd have waited on Moreland.

[a700hitter]

It's not happening.

 

If there was any hope, we'd have waited on Moreland.

Kill joy.

[moonslav59]

Kill joy.

 

It will be something to look back on, if EE ends up signing for $15.5M x 2. Having EE over Moreland for $10M more would have been sick.

 

I still think he'll get close to $60M/3.

[Eddy Ballgame]

It will be something to look back on, if EE ends up signing for $15.5M x 2. Having EE over Moreland for $10M more would have been sick.

 

I still think he'll get close to $60M/3.

 

EE would've definitely looked good in the middle of that order, but I think it was you that mentioned how 1st base defense is underrated and Moreland will certainly help there. Moreland being left-handed gives the line-up some more balance as well. He doesn't have the "sexy" numbers, but I think he'll compliment Ramirez well.

 

I also agree that EE will get more than 2 years, even at this point.

[moonslav59]

EE would've definitely looked good in the middle of that order, but I think it was you that mentioned how 1st base defense is underrated and Moreland will certainly help there. Moreland being left-handed gives the line-up some more balance as well. He doesn't have the "sexy" numbers, but I think he'll compliment Ramirez well.

 

I also agree that EE will get more than 2 years, even at this point.

 

I like the Moreland signing, but I'd have been very happy with hanram at 1B and EE at DH, if we could find a way to still reset the luxury tax for next winter.

[a700hitter]

Guardians to sign Encarnacion for 3 years $65 million. Good addition for the Guardians. With their pitching staff, they will be tough to beat.

[a700hitter]

Manny is looking to make a comeback. Is there a DH spot in Boston?

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/manny-ramirez-could-reportedly-attempt-a-comeback-according-to-his-wife/

[Bellhorn04]

Guardians to sign Encarnacion for 3 years $65 million. Good addition for the Guardians. With their pitching staff, they will be tough to beat.

 

Damn, who told those SOB's they were allowed to upgrade?

[Spudboy]

Guardians to sign Encarnacion for 3 years $65 million. Good addition for the Guardians. With their pitching staff, they will be tough to beat.

 

That seems surprising given that he had a 4/ $80 mil offer from the Jays.

 

He'll be 37+ when this deal is done. Does he think that he can get back that $15 mil?

 

But I'm glad for Tito anyway.

[notin]

Damn, who told those SOB's they were allowed to upgrade?

 

On the bright side, we only have to face him 6 times a year now instead of 18...

[a700hitter]

That seems surprising given that he had a 4/ $80 mil offer from the Jays.

 

He'll be 37+ when this deal is done. Does he think that he can get back that $15 mil?

 

But I'm glad for Tito anyway.

Maybe the Blue Jays deal was no longer on the table.

[moonslav59]

I guess EE's deal is just $55M/3 with a $25M buyout- making it essentially:'

 

$60M/3

or

$80M/4 (team choice)

 

As much as I'd have loved to have had EE, and I expected he's get 4-5 years at $20-22M a year, I can't see how we could ever have gotten below the luxury tax to reset over the next 3 years.

 

Without Moreland, we could have come close this year, but we'd have to find about $3-5M more somewhere.

(Remember, replacing $2M with $500K only saves $1.5M)

Arb estimates:

$4.7M Pom

$2.6M Kelly

$2M Abad

$1.8M Ross

$1.7M Holt

$1.3M Leon

 

One could probably cobble together a couple trades that could bring us useful $500K players in return for some of the names above and get us below the luxury limit, but how much weaker would we be in those areas.

 

Also, would EE's $20M contract in 2018 and 2019 prevent us from extending one or two of our young stars nearing free agency?

[moonslav59]

Damn, who told those SOB's they were allowed to upgrade?

 

They look like they might have passed us as AL faves after this.

[Spudboy]

Maybe the Blue Jays deal was no longer on the table.

 

I know that but I'm thinking that his agent or even Edwin himself simply f***ed up and misread the market.

 

Whatever.

[moonslav59]

I know that but I'm thinking that his agent or even Edwin himself simply f***ed up and misread the market.

 

Whatever.

 

Wouldn't be the first time.

 

Remember VTek's debacle?

[Spudboy]

Wouldn't be the first time.

 

Remember VTek's debacle?

 

 

Of course.

[Emp9]

On the bright side, we only have to face him 6 times a year now instead of 18...

 

Ain't that the truth. Last season vs the BoSox: 19 games, .282 BA/.967 OPS, 7 HR, 17 RBI, 9 BB. Boston gave up the most EE HRs out of any team Toronto played. So,him not returning to the AL East is obviously the good thing to take away from all this. He smacked around every team from the ALE except for the Rays. Perhaps we should target a Tampa RP that had success against EE at the deadline.

 

However, I had a hunch Cleveland would make a move like this, 'cause they got their own window that's projected to close sooner than ours at this point. This probably puts them back as projected favorites. But in most cases, like they say, good pitching beats good hitting, and I really hate being the favorites.

[mvp 78]

They look like they might have passed us as AL faves after this.

 

Their stadium will still be half empty all year.

[moonslav59]

Ain't that the truth. Last season vs the BoSox: 19 games, .282 BA/.967 OPS, 7 HR, 17 RBI, 9 BB. Boston gave up the most EE HRs out of any team Toronto played. So,him not returning to the AL East is obviously the good thing to take away from all this. He smacked around every team from the ALE except for the Rays. Perhaps we should target a Tampa RP that had success against EE at the deadline.

 

However, I had a hunch Cleveland would make a move like this, 'cause they got their own window that's projected to close sooner than ours at this point. This probably puts them back as projected favorites. But in most cases, like they say, good pitching beats good hitting, and I really hate being the favorites.

 

The Guardians pitching looks better than ours, at least in some ways. One could look at the small sample size playoff series as see that The Guardians swept us without Salazar and Carrasco, their 2nd and 3rd best starters. I think this is an over simplification, but them adding Salazar, Carrasco, EE & a full season from Brantley, and us adding Sale, Thornburg, Moreland & a full season from Beni doesn't make it seem like we gained on them in this context, however, Salazar & Carrasco both started over 25 games this year, so the regular season gains are not as pronounced.

 

EE is an upgrade over Napoli on paper, but let's remember Naps had 34 HRs and 101 RBIs this year. He was also a clubhouse leader.

 

Here's the projected WAR, for what it's worth:

4.9 Kluber > 4.8 C Sale

4.5 Carrasco = D Price

3.3 Salazar

1.6 Bauer

1.4 Tomlin

(Again, in a 3 game series, CLE has a WAR edge in SP'ing)

 

1.2 C Allen

2.7 Miller >> 1.1 Kelly

0.7 Clevinger

0.5 Otero > 0.4 Thronburg

0.5 Cooney > 0.4 R Ross

0.4 B Shaw > 0.3 Smith

0.4 McAllister >0.2 Barnes

0.3 Merritt > 0.1 R Elias

0.2 C Anderson > 0.0 Hembree/Abad/Scott

Pitching Total: CLE 22.7 > BOS 21.8

 

 

SS 4.7 Lindor > 3.8 Bogey

3B 3.4 Ramirez > 1.0 Pablo

2B 2.7 Kipnis

1B 2.6 Santana > 0.7 Moreland

DH 2.4 EE > 2.0 Ramirez

LF 2.1 Brantley > 1.6 Brantaley

CF 1.4 Naquin

C 1.3 Y Gomes > 1.1 Leon

C 1.0 R Perez = 0.8 Vaz + 0.2 Swihart

RF 0.9 B Guyer

OF 0.9 Chisenhall > 0.6 Young

0.3 Almonte

0.1 E Gonzalez > 0.0 Rutledge + Hernandez

Total: BOS 24.3 > CLE 23.7

 

Overall:

52.7 LAD

51.6 CUBS

46.5 CLE

46.1 BOS

45.3 WSH

44.4 HOU

42.1 SFG

40.2 NYY

40.0 NYM

39.1 STL

39.0 LAA

37.8 SEA

37.7 PIT

37.1 TOR

34.8 TEX

34.6 DET

34.6 TBR

33.2 MIA

32.1 BAL

31.4 KCR

 

 

[a700hitter]

The Guardians pitching looks better than ours, at least in some ways. One could look at the small sample size playoff series as see that The Guardians swept us without Salazar and Carrasco, their 2nd and 3rd best starters. I think this is an over simplification, but them adding Salazar, Carrasco, EE & a full season from Brantley, and us adding Sale, Thornburg, Moreland & a full season from Beni doesn't make it seem like we gained on them in this context, however, Salazar & Carrasco both started over 25 games this year, so the regular season gains are not as pronounced.

 

EE is an upgrade over Napoli on paper, but let's remember Naps had 34 HRs and 101 RBIs this year. He was also a clubhouse leader.

 

Here's the projected WAR, for what it's worth:

4.9 Kluber > 4.8 C Sale

4.5 Carrasco = D Price

3.3 Salazar

1.6 Bauer

1.4 Tomlin

(Again, in a 3 game series, CLE has a WAR edge in SP'ing)

 

1.2 C Allen

2.7 Miller >> 1.1 Kelly

0.7 Clevinger

0.5 Otero > 0.4 Thronburg

0.5 Cooney > 0.4 R Ross

0.4 B Shaw > 0.3 Smith

0.4 McAllister >0.2 Barnes

0.3 Merritt > 0.1 R Elias

0.2 C Anderson > 0.0 Hembree/Abad/Scott

Pitching Total: CLE 22.7 > BOS 21.8

 

 

SS 4.7 Lindor > 3.8 Bogey

3B 3.4 Ramirez > 1.0 Pablo

2B 2.7 Kipnis

1B 2.6 Santana > 0.7 Moreland

DH 2.4 EE > 2.0 Ramirez

LF 2.1 Brantley > 1.6 Brantaley

CF 1.4 Naquin

C 1.3 Y Gomes > 1.1 Leon

C 1.0 R Perez = 0.8 Vaz + 0.2 Swihart

RF 0.9 B Guyer

OF 0.9 Chisenhall > 0.6 Young

0.3 Almonte

0.1 E Gonzalez > 0.0 Rutledge + Hernandez

Total: BOS 24.3 > CLE 23.7

 

Overall:

52.7 LAD

51.6 CUBS

46.5 CLE

46.1 BOS

45.3 WSH

44.4 HOU

42.1 SFG

40.2 NYY

40.0 NYM

39.1 STL

39.0 LAA

37.8 SEA

37.7 PIT

37.1 TOR

34.8 TEX

34.6 DET

34.6 TBR

33.2 MIA

32.1 BAL

31.4 KCR

 

 

And this is why GM's always have to make moves to improve their MLB roster. You can never stand pat, because the competition is upgrading.

[moonslav59]

And this is why GM's always have to make moves to improve their MLB roster. You can never stand pat, because the competition is upgrading.

 

No argument here, and to me, the best way to build up a staff is from the top.

 

DD did that. I can't express my thankfulness enough for him getting Sale.

 

The Thornburg deal looks like a big score as well. We gave up a lot to get these two, but their contractual cost and length of team control makes it more than worth the sacrifice.

 

I consider Sale and Kluber equal, and I like Price/Porcello more than Carrasco/Salazar, but it's close. Maybe we can gain ground with Erod/Pom/Wright over Bauer/Tomlin and Merritt, but tht looks close too.

 

Our pen is going to have to outperform expectations to not lose too much ground to the Guardians' pen. A strong year by Thornburg and the return of a strong Smith could go along way towards closing that gap significantly. Kelly, Barnes, Ross and others have room to step up as well.

 

I still like our line-up better than Cleveland's despite our loss of Papi and their game of EE.

 

We outscored them by 101 runs last year. They have Brantley returning. He placed 13th in MLB in OPS from 2014-2015 at .876! Add EE, and they look to have easily made up the ground needed to catch the Papi-less Sox, but we should see an increase in 3B and LF production as well as an overall defensive improvement.

 

Should be a tight race to the top of the AL.

[S5Dewey]

No argument here, and to me, the best way to build up a staff is from the top.

 

DD did that. I can't express my thankfulness enough for him getting Sale.

 

The Thornburg deal looks like a big score as well. We gave up a lot to get these two, but their contractual cost and length of team control makes it more than worth the sacrifice.

 

I consider Sale and Kluber equal, and I like Price/Porcello more than Carrasco/Salazar, but it's close. Maybe we can gain ground with Erod/Pom/Wright over Bauer/Tomlin and Merritt, but tht looks close too.

 

Our pen is going to have to outperform expectations to not lose too much ground to the Guardians' pen. A strong year by Thornburg and the return of a strong Smith could go along way towards closing that gap significantly. Kelly, Barnes, Ross and others have room to step up as well.

 

I still like our line-up better than Cleveland's despite our loss of Papi and their game of EE.

 

We outscored them by 101 runs last year. They have Brantley returning. He placed 13th in MLB in OPS from 2014-2015 at .876! Add EE, and they look to have easily made up the ground needed to catch the Papi-less Sox, but we should see an increase in 3B and LF production as well as an overall defensive improvement.

 

Should be a tight race to the top of the AL.

 

Agree. But Cleveland isn't in our division. We don't have to finish with a better record than the Guardians to get into the playoffs. All we need to do is to be able to win a 5 or 7 game series against them in October and right now I see any one series against them as being a toss-up.

[Kimmi]

Ain't that the truth. Last season vs the BoSox: 19 games, .282 BA/.967 OPS, 7 HR, 17 RBI, 9 BB. Boston gave up the most EE HRs out of any team Toronto played. So,him not returning to the AL East is obviously the good thing to take away from all this. He smacked around every team from the ALE except for the Rays. Perhaps we should target a Tampa RP that had success against EE at the deadline.

 

However, I had a hunch Cleveland would make a move like this, 'cause they got their own window that's projected to close sooner than ours at this point. This probably puts them back as projected favorites. But in most cases, like they say, good pitching beats good hitting, and I really hate being the favorites.

 

Good move for Cleveland. Encarnacion ended up not costing nearly as much as I thought he would.

 

Cleveland is probably now the AL favorites, but it's not by much. Anyway, like you said, I don't like being the favorites.

[Kimmi]

Agree. But Cleveland isn't in our division. We don't have to finish with a better record than the Guardians to get into the playoffs. All we need to do is to be able to win a 5 or 7 game series against them in October and right now I see any one series against them as being a toss-up.

 

Yup. You need to get to the playoffs, then all bets are off as far as which team is the favorite.

[Wade Boggs]

No argument here, and to me, the best way to build up a staff is from the top.

 

DD did that. I can't express my thankfulness enough for him getting Sale.

 

The Thornburg deal looks like a big score as well. We gave up a lot to get these two, but their contractual cost and length of team control makes it more than worth the sacrifice.

 

I consider Sale and Kluber equal, and I like Price/Porcello more than Carrasco/Salazar, but it's close. Maybe we can gain ground with Erod/Pom/Wright over Bauer/Tomlin and Merritt, but tht looks close too.

 

Our pen is going to have to outperform expectations to not lose too much ground to the Guardians' pen. A strong year by Thornburg and the return of a strong Smith could go along way towards closing that gap significantly. Kelly, Barnes, Ross and others have room to step up as well.

 

I still like our line-up better than Cleveland's despite our loss of Papi and their game of EE.

 

We outscored them by 101 runs last year. They have Brantley returning. He placed 13th in MLB in OPS from 2014-2015 at .876! Add EE, and they look to have easily made up the ground needed to catch the Papi-less Sox, but we should see an increase in 3B and LF production as well as an overall defensive improvement.

 

Should be a tight race to the top of the AL.

 

Please keep in mind. The team starting in April will not be the same team côme September/ October.

[moonslav59]

Please keep in mind. The team starting in April will not be the same team côme September/ October.

 

Very true. That's one reason I think creating spending space by trading Buch should turn out to be a big value to us later next season.

[harmony]

Red Sox reportedly interested in Trevor Plouffe:

 

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/2016/12/red_sox_consider_deal_for_utility_player_trevor_plouffe#.WGH3TPdWrw8.twitter

[rkarp1]

I think Plouffe is a player that could help in that Aaron Hill look role.

 

What's the thought here on Brock? 5th OF? Back up SS/2B? 3rd DH?

 

I like what Brock brings to the table and agree with the "over use" tag. But having someone like Plouffe in the fold really limits Brock's games at 3B/1B, no?

[notin]

Plouffe is fine, but the position player roster crunch looks set to the point where having him "spell" a bench guy looks like the tiniest of upgrades. If he signs a minor league deal, that works. There is no such thing as a bad minor league deal. But I anticipate the Angels being interested as well. He's an upgrade over Rutledge, I guess. But a very, very low "wow" factor here.

 

But the 7-10 spots in the rotation are wht needs to be addressed. Granted, Dombrowski needs to sign guys willing to take minor league deals to make this happen. And in this pitching market, maybe no one is willing to just yet...

Edited December 27, 2016 by notin