A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[oldtimer]

I think we're all in agreement that we have a pretty good ball club.

 

The team needs tweaking, not complete overhaul.

 

Just signing a DH will allow the Sox offense to take a deep breath and see what develops. The benefit is our farm system is not disturbed. Shaw/Rodriquez platoon at 3B can't be any worse than Shaw/Hill experiment. This will allow Moncada additional time to develop.

 

Ideally, both Swihart and Moncada take over the C/3B positions at some point during 2017 season. Our lineup will be solid 1-9 at that point.

 

Our starting pitching is more than adequate with Wright coming back healthy. E Rod appears to be getting stronger and has not reached anywhere near his peak. This was first full season for Pomeranz getting to start and he should be better in 2017. I suppose you keep Clay B for additional depth.

 

I'm too lazy to look up. Any trade deadline top of the line pitcher pending FA candidates?

 

Our current catchers are good defensively but are a liability at bat. Swihart might be a solution to the hitting issue but would his defense be an offsetting liability? Certainly if we could improve our catching slot from within, without going into the expensive FA market, then that is a better solution. Leaves more resources to deal with the 3rd base issue, DH and R Pitching.

 

At this point if we could trade for an ace SP without ruining our prospect list, then I would consider it and perhaps not pick up Buchholtz contract.

[Spudboy]

Spuddy, if there was any chance Hanley had the physical ability to play third, he would have done it at least once at some point in the last 2 years where we have had massive issues gaining stability at the hot corner, and likely made the position his own. Shaw had been groomed as a first basemen who could backup at 3B for the years leading up to 2016. If Hanley could handle regular duties at 3B, he would have made the position his own after Sandoval flamed out, and Shaw and possibly others would be jockeying for 1B duties.

 

IIRC there are concerns about Hanley's shoulder if he had to regularly make throws across the diamond again.

 

I think you have to jettison the fact that Hanley used to be a third baseman from your mind, because if there was any thought of him going back to the hot corner it would have been tried by now, and seriously. A Hanley that could play 3B would be incredibly valuable to this team. THe fact that they never tried it tells me that they *CAN'T.* He's too old to move back up the defensive spectrum in that way.

 

Learn the lesson of Kevin Youkilis*, "Used to be a 3B" isn't always enough. Otherwise we could always play EE himself at the hot corner, he totes fershure used to be a third baseman after all! #TotallyNotSerious

 

*I remain convinced that Youk would have had a much longer tail to his career if left at 1B

 

Not so sure about this Doj. Isn't the Left, non-throwing, shoulder Hanley's problem? He seems to have decent mobility at 1st. I see no reason to expect a dramatic drop-off at third.

 

I think the fact that Hanley settled into 1st base has more to do with plans that had been made and the timing of Fatboy's most recent flop at 3rd than with his inability to play 3rd.

 

But I could be wrong. Like everyone else here.

 

Even if I am wrong, the Sox still have Shaw, Hernandez, and Holt to split duties at 3rd and 1st, LF, and DH to be shared by EE, Hanley, and Beltran.

 

My idea is valid unless someone can prove definitely otherwise.

[Spudboy]

Do you think Swihart is a viable option as a starting catcher? I do. I can't believe he's THAT bad defensively with his athleticism.

 

I'm with you Nick. Even though I believe that all athletic catchers with strong hitting tools should be moved to another position ( like 1st or 3rd ) to safeguard there body and maximize their output.

 

And to the rest of you, yes, I do realize that a hitting catcher is very valuable.

[Dojji]

Nothing would please me more than finding out HR could play 3B, but I have to think, as many problems as we've had at 3B, he'd have been tried there a few times, as an experiment if nothing else, maybe in the closing days of one of the last 2 seasons perhaps, if the team thought that it was possible for him to play there effectively.

[Spudboy]

Nothing would please me more than finding out HR could play 3B, but I have to think, as many problems as we've had at 3B, he'd have been tried there a few times, as an experiment if nothing else, maybe in the closing days of one of the last 2 seasons perhaps, if the team thought that it was possible for him to play there effectively.

 

As I said, it may have had a lot to do with plans and timing.

 

Fatboy sucked in 2015 and Hanley was "injured" and sent home late last year.

 

Fatboy was the 3rd baseman designate in 2016 ST and the sucked ass. All the while Hanley was slotted to play 1st and was being trained to do so.

 

And of course, the Sox in all their wisdom, signed both Hanley and Fatboy at about the same time. At that point which one would seem to be the best suited to play 3rd?

[S5Dewey]

Do you think Swihart is a viable option as a starting catcher? I do. I can't believe he's THAT bad defensively with his athleticism.

 

IMO this centers more around Vazquez than it does around Swihart.

 

When the FO began to have Swihart learn LF it was apparent that the plan was that he was going to the be the backup catcher behind Vazquez OR trade bait. Since then it appears that Vazquez has been enough of a concern that he was sent down to work on his game.

 

As I see it the question now is where these two fall on the Red Sox Depth Chart. If Swihart has moved ahead of Vazquez then he (Swi) certainly is a viable option for the Sox as a starting catcher. OTOH, if Vaz is still above Swihart I see him as a viable option for some other team as a starting catcher via a trade.

 

This conundrum may force the Sox to wait until next season (as in NOT 'over the winter') to see how this all shakes out. Or... they may commit to keeping both of them and deciding later who's going to be the starter and who's going to be the backup.

[moonslav59]

Moon, they can't "Castillo" Panda. Once a player has 5 years in the majors, he can't be sent down without his consent. Panda's been around since 2008-2009. So the only options are to trade him or release him. If the latter, anyone can sign him for the MLB minimum, with the Sox having to pick up the difference. Either way, they are not going to be able to get out of paying a decent part of his contract and having it count against the limit. They are between the proverbial rock and hard place with him.

 

Didn't Craig have 5 years?

 

I think you're right.

 

We may have to eat his contract or hope he becomes some sort of use- even if as a platoon DH.

[mvp 78]

Panda will be the opening day 3b.

 

Price will have a better season than in 2016.

 

Moncada doesn't make the opening day roster.

 

Sox pick up 2 new relief arms and make a substantial one year offer to Koji.

 

Tazawa and Ziegler move on.

 

Buchholz has his option picked up.

 

The Sox don't bring in any new starting pitchers.

 

Kopech is converted to a bullpen arm.

[moonslav59]

Do you think Swihart is a viable option as a starting catcher? I do. I can't believe he's THAT bad defensively with his athleticism.

 

I do think he's still a catcher option, and with our catcher situation more in question now than two months ago, I can see the position for keeping him. I love Swihart. I think he's going to be a very good offensive player. I'm not sure about the defense, but catcher defense takes time to master. Remember, VTek was not really a plus defender until 31 -32 years old.

 

I also realize we have 3 catchers in a league starving for catchers. I think Leon and Vaz are better defenders, and I'm super high on catcher defense. I think Swihart will likely be moved to LF, 3B or 1B with the Sox, so his value may be higher with another team as a catcher. (key word: may) I also know you have to give to get, and I value Swihart highly... both here and as trade bait.

 

[moonslav59]

IMO this centers more around Vazquez than it does around Swihart.

 

When the FO began to have Swihart learn LF it was apparent that the plan was that he was going to the be the backup catcher behind Vazquez OR trade bait. Since then it appears that Vazquez has been enough of a concern that he was sent down to work on his game.

 

As I see it the question now is where these two fall on the Red Sox Depth Chart. If Swihart has moved ahead of Vazquez then he (Swi) certainly is a viable option for the Sox as a starting catcher. OTOH, if Vaz is still above Swihart I see him as a viable option for some other team as a starting catcher via a trade.

 

This conundrum may force the Sox to wait until next season (as in NOT 'over the winter') to see how this all shakes out. Or... they may commit to keeping both of them and deciding later who's going to be the starter and who's going to be the backup.

 

I agree, and on a team looking to improve in several areas, we may not have the luxury of waiting until one of our three catchers proves he's the starter. I trust Sox management to know who has the best chance at being our catcher going forward, and we may have to trade the other to get where we need to be at 3B, DH, and RP'er.

[Spudboy]

Panda will be the opening day 3b.

 

Price will have a better season than in 2016.

 

Moncada doesn't make the opening day roster.

 

Sox pick up 2 new relief arms and make a substantial one year offer to Koji.

 

Tazawa and Ziegler move on.

 

Buchholz has his option picked up.

 

The Sox don't bring in any new starting pitchers.

 

Kopech is converted to a bullpen arm.

 

All of these are plausible.

[moonslav59]

Panda will be the opening day 3b.

 

Price will have a better season than in 2016.

 

Moncada doesn't make the opening day roster.

 

Sox pick up 2 new relief arms and make a substantial one year offer to Koji.

 

Tazawa and Ziegler move on.

 

Buchholz has his option picked up.

 

The Sox don't bring in any new starting pitchers.

 

Kopech is converted to a bullpen arm.

 

I agree with everything here, except maybe the Kopech thing. I think we may bring in a cheap back-up 3Bman on a 1 year deal (Valbuena?)

[Dojji]

Panda will be the opening day 3b.

 

Panda needs to prove that he's still a big league third baseman at all. The last time he was allowed to play defense at third he was hurt within a matter of a few weeks.

[moonslav59]

Panda needs to prove that he's still a big league third baseman at all. The last time he was allowed to play defense at third he was hurt within a matter of a few weeks.

 

If he's not in shape, we'll know right away. I'd think we'd check in before all 3B options are taken to see where he's at.

 

If he's lost a lot of wait, it's still a question mark at 3B, especially on defense.

 

Watching Cleveland's 3B defense last night and seeing the Sox finished in last place with 3B WAR pretty much tells us where we can improve the most going into next year.

[mvp 78]

I agree with everything here, except maybe the Kopech thing. I think we may bring in a cheap back-up 3Bman on a 1 year deal (Valbuena?)

 

Swihart should get reps at 3b in the offseason. I think he has a better skillset there than in LF.

 

Kopech just doesn't have the secondary pitches or repeatable delivery to be a good starter. I think it's the best place for him.

[mvp 78]

Panda needs to prove that he's still a big league third baseman at all. The last time he was allowed to play defense at third he was hurt within a matter of a few weeks.

 

I'm not saying he'll play 162, he'll just be the opening day starter. I hope he returns to form and plays great. An average Panda year is better than any of the other options available to the Sox right now.

[bosoxmal]

I would sooner give up on JBJ than I would Swihart. My guess for the OF as spring training comes to a close would be Swihaer/Young, in left, Benintendi in CF and Betts right where he belongs in RF. I don't know what we could get for Bradley, but I don't think it would be much. He may not be a hopeless case, but pretty darn close to it.

[cp176]

I would sooner give up on JBJ than I would Swihart. My guess for the OF as spring training comes to a close would be Swihaer/Young, in left, Benintendi in CF and Betts right where he belongs in RF. I don't know what we could get for Bradley, but I don't think it would be much. He may not be a hopeless case, but pretty darn close to it.

 

Really - 26 homers, 87 RBI's, 156 games and a possible gold glove in cf. Now don't get me wrong, he might get dealt, but those numbers say that he is a long way from being even close to hopeless.

[Youk Of The Nation]

^This. One of Encarnacion/Beltran, round out the relief corps. I would look at opportunistic SP upgrades though.

 

I would much rather it be Encarnacion. Beltran is about 100 years old, he can't possibly have as much good baseball left in him as EE.

[moonslav59]

Swihart should get reps at 3b in the offseason. I think he has a better skillset there than in LF.

 

Kopech just doesn't have the secondary pitches or repeatable delivery to be a good starter. I think it's the best place for him.

 

Good point on Kopech.

 

I'm thinking Swihart's best spot might be 1B, but I'm fine with letting have a go at 3B.

[moonslav59]

I would much rather it be Encarnacion. Beltran is about 100 years old, he can't possibly have as much good baseball left in him as EE.

 

I think everyone would rather have EE than CB, but it's about the years and costs.

[mvp 78]

Good point on Kopech.

 

I'm thinking Swihart's best spot might be 1B, but I'm fine with letting have a go at 3B.

 

To me, 1b seems like an easier hole to fill and is not a need right now.

Edited October 12, 2016 by mvp 78

[oldtimer]

I do think he's still a catcher option, and with our catcher situation more in question now than two months ago, I can see the position for keeping him. I love Swihart. I think he's going to be a very good offensive player. I'm not sure about the defense, but catcher defense takes time to master. Remember, VTek was not really a plus defender until 31 -32 years old.

 

I also realize we have 3 catchers in a league starving for catchers. I think Leon and Vaz are better defenders, and I'm super high on catcher defense. I think Swihart will likely be moved to LF, 3B or 1B with the Sox, so his value may be higher with another team as a catcher. (key word: may) I also know you have to give to get, and I value Swihart highly... both here and as trade bait.

 

Question about free agency. I think our three free agents are neither A or B quality so based on my reading of the free agency rules, we can only pick up one in the A range.

 

If we pick up Encarnacion, I believe he is an A level at his position, so we would be limited to him and could not get an A reliever or catcher should those people be of interest. I would think Beltran wouldn't be a A list FA so we might be able to pick up an A at a different position. Clearly, this is also a money thing as the contracts for A level players are high dollar. You seem to be clear of these things. Am I right about this or is it handled differently?

 

If I am correct, then we would probably have to balance high performance FA acquisitions with trades to improve the team.

[oldtimer]

I think everyone would rather have EE than CB, but it's about the years and costs.

 

EE will be 34 years old next season and will be much in demand from a number of clubs. His contract is likely to be 5 years at high dollars. No doubt he is a formidable power hitter now, but how long will that last? Beltran is a good hitter with power who can probably be gotten for reasonable dollars and no more than a 2 year contract. The difference is significant and for those that want to stay within Luxury tax limits, another big long term contract might force us to lose some of the killer B's in the near future.

[moonslav59]

EE will be 34 years old next season and will be much in demand from a number of clubs. His contract is likely to be 5 years at high dollars. No doubt he is a formidable power hitter now, but how long will that last? Beltran is a good hitter with power who can probably be gotten for reasonable dollars and no more than a 2 year contract. The difference is significant and for those that want to stay within Luxury tax limits, another big long term contract might force us to lose some of the killer B's in the near future.

 

And a 4 or 5 year deal would likely block Moncada or Devers (or Travis) in 2 years.

[moonslav59]

The fact that we went hard after Beltran at the trade deadline may be a hint at who we get for our DH next year. Beni's good start to his ML career may lessen that desire, but Beltran really isn't a great fielder anyway, so the DH role looks better for him anyways. I'm totally sold on the validity of a Beni-Young LF platoon.

 

I could also see DD thinking of a Pablo-Young DH platoon as a real possibility. A HanRam-Young platoon at DH, with HanRam playing 1B when not at DH could work as well. Maybe Swihart, Shaw or Pablo could play 1B when HanRam is at DH. Maybe we could pick up a one year corner IF bridge to Moncada/Devers.

 

We have a glut of ML players that can play 3B, but none of them are players that we can really trust to be a plus at 3B. Our 3B WAR ranked 30th this year.

 

Shaw, Pablo, Moncada, Holt, Hernandez, Rutledge, Marrero and some even put Bogey as a 3B option at some point down the road. (Devers is probably more than a year away. Dalbec and Chavis are 2 or more years away, if ever.) Picking up a 3Bman or corner IF'er almost certainly means soneone will be traded (Pablo/Marrero?)

 

I don't see many RP'ers on the FA market, but the closers will be in super high demand.

 

[moonslav59]

Question about free agency. I think our three free agents are neither A or B quality so based on my reading of the free agency rules, we can only pick up one in the A range.

 

If we pick up Encarnacion, I believe he is an A level at his position, so we would be limited to him and could not get an A reliever or catcher should those people be of interest. I would think Beltran wouldn't be a A list FA so we might be able to pick up an A at a different position. Clearly, this is also a money thing as the contracts for A level players are high dollar. You seem to be clear of these things. Am I right about this or is it handled differently?

 

If I am correct, then we would probably have to balance high performance FA acquisitions with trades to improve the team.

 

The A-B free agent thing ended years ago.

 

It's all about FAs who have a Qualifying Offer made by their team or not. If we signa player with a QO offered, we'll lose a first round pick. If we sign a second player with a QO, we'd lose our 2nd round pick and so on.

[moonslav59]

To me, 1b seems like an easier hole to fill and is not a need right now.

 

Well, we need a DH.

 

As much as HanRam may have surprised us with decent 1B defense, he was still a negative this year on defense. I'm not sure how his psyche fits with the DH role, but surely an argument can be made to move HanRam to DH next year, even if just vs RHPs as Young could DH vs lefties-assuming we view Beni as a FT LF'er.

 

That leaves 1B and 3B as two of our highest need areas. We could try to find a player that can play both and let the chips fall where they may. One of those chips could be Swihart. Since Moncada and Devers both look to be vying for the future 3B job, I think Swihart's best chance might be at 1B.

 

I still have not given up on Swihart as a catcher, but I think Sox brass likes Vaz better. Leon's hot streak has thrown him into the mix. One of these three may be traded this winter, and if it's not Swihart, then catcher will be his major position.

 

[moonslav59]

MLBTR has this on Qualifying Offers this winter:

 

For locks, I’d list Yoenis Cespedes, Edwin Encarnacion, Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner, Jeremy Hellickson, Jose Bautista, Dexter Fowler, Ian Desmond and Mark Trumbo. That’s nine right there.

 

As for players that I think have a chance of receiving them — we’ll say 20 percent or more, to put a rough number on it… basically as a means of illustrating that it wouldn’t shock me — I’ll list Neil Walker, Michael Saunders, Wilson Ramos, Kendrys Morales, Mike Napoli and Matt Wieters.

[jacksonianmarch]

Hanley returned to post solid numbers. You moved him from his initial position to LF and then 1b. Moving him off the diamond altogether forces him to adjust again. And a lot of non players don't understand the difference, but being a DH is VERY hard. You feel disconnected for 90% of the game. It takes time to develop into a DH, and some guys do it better than others. I wouldn't f*** with Hanley, especially with Ortiz leaving. Leave him at 1B, get a guy who is already seasoned at DH or rotate it to keep your kids fresh

 

And I speak from personal experience. I was a college 1b, power hitter. My senior year, our SS, who was our captain, blew out his arm and supplanted me at 1b. I became the DH and it was f***ing miserable. Eventually, my production cost me my position in the lineup entirely. It's a different rhythm, a different role. You've got to balance the feel of not playing with the feel of hitting 3-4 times a game. I was awful at it. Some guys cannot do it. You just got Hanley back, got 30-110 out of him. Don't f*** with him again

Edited October 12, 2016 by jacksonianmarch