A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Emp9]

I wouldn't expect much of an uptick in Owens velocity, if any. Velocity usually tops out at a young age, before pitchers even ever put it together. I'd more optimistic of his future if he can harness his control.

 

I agree that I'd be more optimistic if he developed better control and it would be more relevant going forward towards any success he could have. On the velocity though, I mean... 6-7, 24 yrs old, tops out at 94, something tells me he's not taking advantage of his frame and there may be still time/room for improvement. He has yet to put it together. Not saying he'd ever throw 100 mph or even 98, but could hit 96 consistently if he took advantage of his frame. Would you disagree? Maybe he still needs to fill-out more? Eventually he will... a little. Gain more strength in his legs? My man could stand to gain 30-40 lbs and still be "skinny".

[moonslav59]

soxprospects.com...

 

http://www.soxprospects.com/players/owens-henry.htm

 

Physical Description: Very tall, lanky with long limbs. Still has room for strength gains in legs and upper body, but will always be on the skinny side.

 

Mechanics: Works from the first-base side of the rubber. High three-quarters arm slot. Very rhythmic delivery with a high leg kick, but low energy delivery. Starts with his hands set at chest, drops hands and pulls back up before coming forward with solid momentum. Easy release and loose arm. Average arm speed. Very deceptive delivery; the ball comes out from behind his head and jumps on hitters due to the extension from his long limbs. Can struggle to repeat his mechanics from pitch-to pitch, leading to control issues. Reportedly made a slight mechanical adjustment involving a hinge at the waist entering spring training 2015.

 

Fastball: 88-91 mph. Can reach back for more when loose and hit 92-94 mph. Jumps on hitters. Hitters struggle to square the pitch up, generates a lot of weak contact. Shows late downward action. Average pitch that plays up due to deception. Below-average command, but solid-average control. Command comes and goes within outings.

 

Changeup: 76-79 mph. Potential plus-plus offering. Has steadily improved since he entered the organization. Great feel for the pitch. Same arm speed and look as his fastball. Shows late arm-side fade and drop. Can turn over with cut at times. Commands the pitch to both sides of the plate, inside and outside the zone. Comfortable throwing against righties and lefties and in any count. True out pitch that will miss bats at the big league level.

 

Curveball: Velocity varies. Average potential. Long, loose at lower velocities. Flashes deep break and tight rotation at higher velocities. Has thrown both a softer version 68-72 mph and harder version at 74-76 mph. Able to throw for strikes. Has committed to throwing the harder, more powerful version in 2015 spring training, potentially a very positive development.

 

Slider: 77-79 mph. Work in progress. Threw the pitch some during Hig School, but hadn't thrown it as a professional until 2015. Short, horizontal movement. Lacks tilt, but has potential with continued repetition and refinement. Has shown solid-average potential on occasion.

 

Career Notes: Originally committed to the University of Miami.

 

Summation: Profiles as a back end starter with a chance for more if he improves his fastball command and curveball. Development of curveball is key; relies heavily on fastball/changeup combination. Advanced feel for pitching. Will be able to withstand the rigors of starting at the big league level. Although somewhat goofy off the field, is able to flip the switch, and possesses a mature demeanor on mound. Floor of a back-end starter.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR....

 

The Red Sox continue to see less-than-ideal results from lefty Henry Owens, as Tim Britton of the Providence Journal writes. Once a highly regarded prospect, and still an important part of the organization’s rotation depth, Owens most recently coughed up four free passes in an inning of work. Though the 24-year-old got a head start on throwing over the offseason, in hopes of a smooth launch with his mechanics, he acknowledges that “it hasn’t carried over yet.” Manager John Farrell says it’s a continuation of a long-known issue. “It’s something we talked about before camp,” he said. “The improved command is a primary objective. Today it wasn’t there.”

[Emp9]

Right, his #1 problem is Command and Control from pitch to pitch. His CB & FB (even his Change, but that's OK by me because well, it's a Change) are typically below avg velocity. So I think it's fair to say his #2 problem is his velocity. Problem #3 is throwing a consistent CB. A recent article on SoxProspects said he was 6'-6" 220 lbs, but his Bio says 6'-7" 200 lbs, so I'm not sure what to believe. Brooks baseball covers MLB games only while SoxProspects takes into account all games pitched. If I'm reading things correctly, I think there's a slight uptick in Owen's velocity when pitching in MLB games compared to his MiLB averages. Which could mean he's trying to force things when called up. What MPH he tops out at doesn't concern me as much as his average MPH especially his FB. A starker contrast in velocity on his FB from his other pitches would of course be ideal. Any gains there within the next two years would be awesome. Of course Hugh2 could be right, this may not happen at all. I love the fact that he has a definite 'Out Pitch' regarding his Change-up. Command with an Out-Pitch could go a long way in the majors... so I'm still holding out hope for this kid. Good thing we barely need him right now.

[Nick]

Right, his #1 problem is Command and Control from pitch to pitch. His CB & FB (even his Change, but that's OK by me because well, it's a Change) are typically below avg velocity. So I think it's fair to say his #2 problem is his velocity. Problem #3 is throwing a consistent CB. A recent article on SoxProspects said he was 6'-6" 220 lbs, but his Bio says 6'-7" 200 lbs, so I'm not sure what to believe. Brooks baseball covers MLB games only while SoxProspects takes into account all games pitched. If I'm reading things correctly, I think there's a slight uptick in Owen's velocity when pitching in MLB games compared to his MiLB averages. Which could mean he's trying to force things when called up. What MPH he tops out at doesn't concern me as much as his average MPH especially his FB. A starker contrast in velocity on his FB from his other pitches would of course be ideal. Any gains there within the next two years would be awesome. Of course Hugh2 could be right, this may not happen at all. I love the fact that he has a definite 'Out Pitch' regarding his Change-up. Command with an Out-Pitch could go a long way in the majors... so I'm still holding out hope for this kid. Good thing we barely need him right now.

 

I read somewhere he has put on some added pounds. Probably not as much noticeable at 6-6.

 

There's really not much you can do other than to keep him around and hope something 'clicks'. I guess at some point he'll run out of options.

[Nick]

I'm a big fan of E Rod. But it's frustrating to see him throw 50+ pitches to get through 3 innings. He was going deep into many batters.

 

I never thought about pitch count twenty years ago. Anyone glued to that stat while watching the game? It's annoying but I do it all the time.

[moonslav59]

I'm hoping this is a breakout year for ERod. He's got all the talent in the world.

 

We could use a big boost from someone outside the big three. I like that we have 3 guys that all can provide a big boost (ERod, Wright & Pom), but my hope and expectations are highest for ERod.

[Emp9]

 

I never thought about pitch count twenty years ago. Anyone glued to that stat while watching the game? It's annoying but I do it all the time.

 

I guess I started paying attention to pitch counts back in 2003 or around there and rally increased when Youk got on the scene. Only not so much for our pitchers. Sox were REALLY wearing down opposing SPers during that era. It was a strategy that worked for a long time, over a decade. Still can versus certain teams that don't have a lights out BP.

[Emp9]

I'm hoping this is a breakout year for ERod. He's got all the talent in the world.

 

We could use a big boost from someone outside the big three. I like that we have 3 guys that all can provide a big boost (ERod, Wright & Pom), but my hope and expectations are highest for ERod.

 

ERod definetly has the best "stuff" out of the 3. I'm betting on Wright ( if shoulder is healthy) to be the most reliable though.

[Nick]

ERod definetly has the best "stuff" out of the 3. I'm betting on Wright ( if shoulder is healthy) to be the most reliable though.

 

He's someone you just want to keep around forever... a la Wakefield...

[moonslav59]

ERod definetly has the best "stuff" out of the 3. I'm betting on Wright ( if shoulder is healthy) to be the most reliable though.

 

I agree.

 

Assuming all 3 are 100% healthy....

 

I think Wright has the highest floor of all 3.

 

ERod has the highest ceiling.

 

[moonslav59]

Please support a great site: soxprospects.com.

 

I do!

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/03/supportsoxprospects.html

 

 

 

Here's an update...

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/03/fort-report-benintendi-catches-fire.html

Edited March 8, 2017 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Please support a great site: soxprospects.com.

 

I do!

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/03/supportsoxprospects.html

 

 

 

Here's an update...

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/03/fort-report-benintendi-catches-fire.html

 

Thanks for posting this. I'll donate during their June drive.

[moonslav59]

Thanks for posting this. I'll donate during their June drive.

 

It's amazing what they do with a $20,000 budget!

[harmony]

FanGraphs columnist Jeff Sullivan offers a strength-of-schedule analysis:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/projected-2017-strengths-of-schedule/

[moonslav59]

FanGraphs columnist Jeff Sullivan offers a strength-of-schedule analysis:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/projected-2017-strengths-of-schedule/

 

Good read. Thanks harmony!

[moonslav59]

mlbtr...

 

The Red Sox aren’t yet ready to declare Pablo Sandoval the starting third baseman, but Silverman argues the team ought to go ahead and acknowledge that fact. While the club couldn’t have been sure what it would see from Sandoval this spring, he has not only shown up in shape but has provided evidence that he’s ready to return to being an effective player. Whether Farrell is using the situation to maintain motivation, or has other reasons, he’s not ready to say that Sandoval has regained his job at the hot corner. And that’s just fine with Sandoval, who says that’s not his primary objective. “I do have goals, but my goals are to be healthy,” Sandoval tells Silverman. “If I’m healthy and continue to work, I think I can help my team win games.”

[Nick]

1st and 2nd, fly ball to Beni, he throws to 2nd. I didn't think the ball was deep enough NOT to go to 3rd. It ended up costing us a run. He's not perfect. But I'm glad he's on our side.

[moonslav59]

1st and 2nd, fly ball to Beni, he throws to 2nd. I didn't think the ball was deep enough NOT to go to 3rd. It ended up costing us a run. He's not perfect. But I'm glad he's on our side.

 

He's new to LF.

 

He's played CF his whole life until last end of season.

 

Maybe time will sharpen up him up, but you'd think his instincts would kick in.

[mvp 78]

He's new to LF.

 

He's played CF his whole life until last end of season.

 

Maybe time will sharpen up him up, but you'd think his instincts would kick in.

 

Need to rely on the coaching. I'd rather him make these mistakes in ST and learn from them.

[notin]

Need to rely on the coaching. I'd rather him make these mistakes in ST and learn from them.

 

He better learn fast.

 

His inability to get the ball back to the right base quickly last year allowed the eventual winning run to get into scoring position in a playoff game ..

[Nick]

He better learn fast.

 

His inability to get the ball back to the right base quickly last year allowed the eventual winning run to get into scoring position in a playoff game ..

 

Exactly, it's not the first time it happened.

 

I'd like to hear what he was thinking. Maybe he thought Granderson was too fast or he was too deep and throwing into wind? Or did he have a Castillo moment thinking there were two outs and it was more important to keep the runner off 2B (1B runner).

[moonslav59]

I think that even if Beni makes a few mental mistakes over the season, his outfield speed and defense will end up making him an overall defensive plus, and it certainly should be an upgrade over recent years' LF defense.

[Spudboy]

I'm a big fan of E Rod. But it's frustrating to see him throw 50+ pitches to get through 3 innings. He was going deep into many batters.

 

I never thought about pitch count twenty years ago. Anyone glued to that stat while watching the game? It's annoying but I do it all the time.

 

Regretably, I am Sir.

[Nick]

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/2017/03/silverman_which_is_best_drafting_or_trading_for_pitching_it_s_a_homegrown

 

Silverman: Which is best, drafting or trading for pitching? It’s a homegrown dilemma

 

Interesting debate....

 

I'm bored....and I often have stupid ideas. If major league rules allow it, can an organization completely do away with farm system? Say that saves altogether $50M in annual expenses and you use it for major league payroll. Can a team compete strictly with free agent signings having a budget of $250M? (ignore luxury tax)

Edited March 9, 2017 by Nick

[moonslav59]

While ERod was the clear leader in pitches per PA among our top starters last year, it was only by about 0.20. That amounts to about one more pitch every 5 PAs. I'm not sure that as bad as it seems when watching him pitch last year.

 

4.03 ERod

3.91 Pom (with Sox only)

3.83 Porcello

3.79 Wright

3.78 Buch

3.78 Price

 

RP'ers:

4.36 Kimbrel

4.17 Koji

4.13 Barnes

4.06 Ross

4.01 Taz

3.93 Kelly

3.92 Abad

3.92 Scott

3.87 Hembree

3.58 Ziegler

 

[moonslav59]

MLBTR...

 

Andrew Benintendi has just 118 plate appearances in the Majors and still qualifies as a rookie, but Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that the Red Sox are nonetheless considering batting the game’s No. 1 overall prospect (per Baseball America, ESPN and MLB.com) third in their lineup this coming season. Doing so would break up Boston’s other top four hitters (right-handed bats Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts and Hanley Ramirez) evenly. “A lot of times, a player is going to tell you what he’s ready for or capable of and how you would think he would handle adversity by not being fragile mentally,” manager John Farrell tells Rosenthal. “If we didn’t feel that way about Andrew, I don’t know that he’d be in the big leagues last year.”

 

So what? This?

 

1) Pedey

2) Bogey

3) Beni

4) Betts

5) Ramirez

6) JBJ

7) Moreland/Young

8) Pablo/Rutledge

9) Leon/Vaz

[moonslav59]

MLBTR...

 

Andrew Benintendi has just 118 plate appearances in the Majors and still qualifies as a rookie, but Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that the Red Sox are nonetheless considering batting the game’s No. 1 overall prospect (per Baseball America, ESPN and MLB.com) third in their lineup this coming season. Doing so would break up Boston’s other top four hitters (right-handed bats Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts and Hanley Ramirez) evenly. “A lot of times, a player is going to tell you what he’s ready for or capable of and how you would think he would handle adversity by not being fragile mentally,” manager John Farrell tells Rosenthal. “If we didn’t feel that way about Andrew, I don’t know that he’d be in the big leagues last year.”

 

So what? This?

 

1) Pedey

2) Bogey

3) Beni

4) Betts

5) Ramirez

6) JBJ

7) Moreland/Young

8) Pablo/Rutledge

9) Leon/Vaz

 

I'd prefer...

1) Beni

2) Bogey

3) Betts

4) Pedey

5) Ramirez

6) JBJ v R/Young v L

7) Pablo v R/JBJ v L

8) Moreland v R/Rutlege v L

9) Leon/Vaz

[mvp 78]

I'd prefer...

1) Beni

2) Bogey

3) Betts

4) Pedey

5) Ramirez

6) JBJ v R/Young v L

7) Pablo v R/JBJ v L

8) Moreland v R/Rutlege v L

9) Leon/Vaz

 

Pablo

Pedey

Beni

Betts

Hanley

JBJ

Bogey

Moreland

Leon

[Jack Flap]

Benintendi may bat third eventually, but that seems hasty when he has less than 2 months in the majors under his belt and the team already has Mookie Betts coming off a Trout-lite type season. I'm sure Beni will be great, but methinks we need to pump the brakes on the hype just a bit until he's proven more.