A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[oldtimer]

Beni now 4-4, just homered.....and two doubles. How can he not bat 2nd for us?

 

Unless he bats 3rd.

[moonslav59]

That would be insane. Dombrowski would need a body guard if he did that one.

 

No need to panic. Not until another of the remaining top five gets hurt.

 

Although I'd have rather had Quintana and his extra year of team control over Sale, I agree. Trading for Q now would be insane.

[Kimmi]

I'm not up for doing the research, but I'd like to know how many other teams outscored their opponents in a series and lost or tied as many as we did.

 

With a high scoring team, I guess you'd expect more, but I think we might be surprised by how much more.

 

Well I'm not really up for doing the research either because I think you'd have to go through each team's games logs.

 

If you think about though, it should make sense that a team like the Sox would lose series in which they outscore their opponents. As I said, good teams are going to have a better record in blowout games. In other words, they will have a tendency to win games by a larger margin but lose games by 1 or 2 runs.

[Kimmi]

With Thursday's blowout, the Red Sox evened their Spring Training run differential:

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/standings/_/sort/pointdifferential/seasontype/pre

 

I agree that Spring Training stats are pretty much meaningless.

 

Another thing about run differential is that it is fairly meaningless at the beginning of the season or preseason (small sample size) but becomes more meaningful as more games are played.

[moonslav59]

Well I'm not really up for doing the research either because I think you'd have to go through each team's games logs.

 

If you think about though, it should make sense that a team like the Sox would lose series in which they outscore their opponents. As I said, good teams are going to have a better record in blowout games. In other words, they will have a tendency to win games by a larger margin but lose games by 1 or 2 runs.

 

Yes, teams with more blowout wins have more opportunities to lose or tie a series after outscoring their opponents, but this is what sometimes gives fans the illusion of inconsistency or lack of being "clutch".

 

As long as you win your fair share of close games, winning some games by blowout should not change any perceptions.

 

Sample sizes are small:

 

We won 3 games with walk-off hits and lost 6.

 

We were 20-24 in 1 run games. That's 2 games from being 22-22.

 

We won 30 games by blow out and lost 11 by blow out.

 

We were 7-4 in extra inning games.

 

Nothing here jumps out to say we have some sort of abnormality.

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

MLBTR...

 

y Jeff Todd | March 3, 2017 at 3:26pm CDT

The Red Sox announced some very welcome news on lefty David Price, who was being evaluated for a worrying elbow injury. As Rob Bradford of WEEI.com was among those to report on Twitter, manager John Farrell says that Price is not expected to require surgery or other invasive treatments. Instead, he will be shut down for seven to ten days of treatment before being reevaluated.

 

It’s not immediately clear how soon Price can be expected back on the mound. The injury has been diagnosed as a strain, per Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald (via Twitter), which presumably could have a wide variance in recovery process and timing. Clearly, though, the news comes as a relief to a Boston organization that has much at stake in Price’s left arm — this season and beyond.

 

Alarm bells rang yesterday when the Sox told reporters they were sending Price to be examined by elbow experts Dr. James Andrews and Dr. Neal ElAttrache. That decision showed that the team had real concern, and raised the specter of a season-ending surgery. Those two physicians, after all, are among the foremost practitioners of the Tommy John procedure. While a visit to their offices often precedes a TJ procedure, though, that’s not always the case.

 

In Price’s situation, it seems, other treatment outcomes were also seen as being on the table. Ferrell noted that the veteran southpaw won’t need an injection, which perhaps would have represented an alternative. As it turns out, the news represents a best-case scenario.

 

Unfortunately, even with that good news, it seems as if Price may fall behind a bit. Unless, perhaps, he’s cleared for a full resumption of this throwing program at the earliest opportunity, Price may need to spend at least a bit of time on the DL to start the season. That wouldn’t be particularly problematic were it not for the fact that Boston is facing similar timing questions already with pitchers such as Steven Wright and Drew Pomeranz, though perhaps a fill-in or even an outside addition could help bridge the gap if the need arises.

[Hugh2]

Although I'd have rather had Quintana and his extra year of team control over Sale, I agree. Trading for Q now would be insane.

 

I have a hard time believing we could even get a deal done without giving up something from the MLB roster.

[Fisk]

Even if Price becomes worst case scenario we are not trading for Quintana, it would take the rest of our top echelon prospects which we can't afford to do.

[Hugh2]

Even if Price becomes worst case scenario we are not trading for Quintana, it would take the rest of our top echelon prospects which we can't afford to do.

 

I'm not even sure we can do that. One could argue Quintana could command just as much as Sale possibly even more due to his extra year of control.

 

That aside I think Moncada/Kopech is more valuable that Groome/Devers, so the secondary pieces would have to be more valuable than they were in the Sale trade and we just don't have any. The system is empty.

 

But lets just hope we don't need it to come to that.

[moonslav59]

I have a hard time believing we could even get a deal done without giving up something from the MLB roster.

 

We'd probably have to give up ERod or Wright plus 2 or 3 of out top 4-5 prospects.

[Fisk]

I'm not even sure we can do that. One could argue Quintana could command just as much as Sale possibly even more due to his extra year of control.

 

That aside I think Moncada/Kopech is more valuable that Groome/Devers, so the secondary pieces would have to be more valuable than they were in the Sale trade and we just don't have any. The system is empty.

 

But lets just hope we don't need it to come to that.

 

I'm pretty sure they would ask for Beni.

[Fisk]

We'd probably have to give up ERod or Wright plus 2 or 3 of out top 4-5 prospects.

 

I could see Erod but I don't think they would want Wright, no reason to have him on a total rebuild.

[moonslav59]

I could see Erod but I don't think they would want Wright, no reason to have him on a total rebuild.

 

They could take Wright or Pom and flip them to another team for decent prospects.

[Fisk]

They could take Wright or Pom and flip them to another team for decent prospects.

 

Yes they could flip them but it makes the deal that much more complicated.

[Hugh2]

Yes they could flip them but it makes the deal that much more complicated.

 

I just don't think that's realistic. You need real prospects to land high caliber players. We saw what it took to get Sale, we know they are going to ask for 2 of Benintendi, Devers, Groome and then a couple lower level pieces as well.

 

There's no way we are flipping those guys for elite prospects. I could see us flipping them for the secondary pieces to get Quintana which effectively makes the deal along the lines of Erod/Devers/Groome.

[Fisk]

I just don't think that's realistic. You need real prospects to land high caliber players. We saw what it took to get Sale, we know they are going to ask for 2 of Benintendi, Devers, Groome and then a couple lower level pieces as well.

 

There's no way we are flipping those guys for elite prospects. I could see us flipping them for the secondary pieces to get Quintana which effectively makes the deal along the lines of Erod/Devers/Groome.

 

Which we would never do that deal.

[notin]

I'm pretty sure they would ask for Beni.

 

Absolutely.

 

Quintana's contract makes him as valuable or more valuable than Sale, and the White Sox preferred Benintendi over Moncada. ..

[notin]

We'd probably have to give up ERod or Wright plus 2 or 3 of out top 4-5 prospects.

 

?????????????????????

 

I know it's moot now, but the solution to shoring up the Sox pitching staff would never have been to trade the remaining pieces away. And in this case, whatever pluses Quintana brought would have been immediately negated by the minuses from the replacements for ERod and Wright...

[Hugh2]

If Price is healthy I'm very optimistic about this rotation. Even if he's not 100% his former self I think he's capable, and SHOULD have an overall better season than last year. With the addition of Sale leading the top with a prime Porcello this rotation should be very good.

 

Also, I'm curious to see what Wright and Pomeranz bring. Can Pom pitch a full season of baseball that mirrors his first half last year? maybe he can't, maybe he can. Maybe you write of his slip in performance as fatigue, and perhaps with a full season of starting under his belt he comes in with more endurance this year. Was Stephen Wrights year last year legit? will EROD emerge into what he's capable of?

 

Best case scenario is this rotation is stacked, I don't want to imagine the worse worse case scenario, but even a more realistic worse case scenario is the rotation lacks depth but is top heavy. With a good lineup and a good bullpen I'd still like that teams odds in a playoff run.

[Kimmi]

Yes, teams with more blowout wins have more opportunities to lose or tie a series after outscoring their opponents, but this is what sometimes gives fans the illusion of inconsistency or lack of being "clutch".

 

As long as you win your fair share of close games, winning some games by blowout should not change any perceptions.

 

Sample sizes are small:

 

We won 3 games with walk-off hits and lost 6.

 

We were 20-24 in 1 run games. That's 2 games from being 22-22.

 

We won 30 games by blow out and lost 11 by blow out.

 

We were 7-4 in extra inning games.

 

Nothing here jumps out to say we have some sort of abnormality.

 

You want a team whose W-L record screams of abnormality, look at last year's Rangers.

 

They beat their Pythagorean W-L by 13 games by going 36-11 in one run games and 18-24 in blowout games. This is the poster child for a lucky team.

[moonslav59]

?????????????????????

 

I know it's moot now, but the solution to shoring up the Sox pitching staff would never have been to trade the remaining pieces away. And in this case, whatever pluses Quintana brought would have been immediately negated by the minuses from the replacements for ERod and Wright...

 

I am not for trading away our remaining prospects plus ERod, Pom or Wright.

 

I just said, that's what it would take to even start a conversation.

 

Trading one of ERod, Wright or Pom would improve the rotation but not the depth.

[Kimmi]

Updated Red Sox standings projections:

 

Fangraphs - 93 wins, best in the AL, one game better than the Guardians, 7 games better than our closest AL East competitor, the Blue Jays

 

BP - 90 wins, 3rd best in the AL, 3 games behind the Astros and 2 games behind the Guardians, division winner, 6 games better than the Rays

 

Davenport - Dude is still on drugs, and I say this as a fan of his. He has us as the 7th best team in the AL, which is out of playoff contention.

 

82 wins, tied for 2nd place in the AL East with the Rays, 2 games behind the Jays

[gojohn99]

7th best? I can't see how the Sox don't project as at least a top 3 AL team in 2017.

 

Updated Red Sox standings projections:

 

Davenport - Dude is still on drugs, and I say this as a fan of his. He has us as the 7th best team in the AL, which is out of playoff contention.

 

82 wins, tied for 2nd place in the AL East with the Rays, 2 games behind the Jays

[notin]

Updated Red Sox standings projections:

 

Davenport - Dude is still on drugs, and I say this as a fan of his. He has us as the 7th best team in the AL, which is out of playoff contention.

 

82 wins, tied for 2nd place in the AL East with the Rays, 2 games behind the Jays

 

Ah the token contrarian prediction.

 

A writer trying to look brighter thsn his colleagues by going against the grain, which is so easy to do in baseball given the tight ranges in winning percentages across league. ..

[moonslav59]

He must think Papi was worth 10+ wins.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR...

 

By Connor Byrne | March 4, 2017 at 6:10pm CDT

 

There was fear this week that Red Sox left-hander David Price would need elbow surgery, but those worries were put to rest Friday. It turns out that elbow experts Dr. James Andrews and Dr. Neal ElAttrache diagnosed Price with a mild flexor strain and some bone spurs, industry sources told Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. That Price dodged a more serious injury surprised the doctors, the ace revealed. “They said it multiple times; we expected this to be a lot worse than what it really is,” said Price, who added that Andrews and ElAttrache informed him he has an “extremely unique” elbow. “It’s found a way to kind of heal itself,” he continued. “It’s pretty neat, bionic elbow.” Although Price avoided a season-ending issue, he’s still likely to begin the campaign on the disabled list and miss a to-be-determined amount of starts, according to Abraham. How much time Price misses will largely be up to him, though, as the doctors want the 31-year-old to map out his own recovery program. “I’ll know when I feel good enough to go out there and throw a baseball,” declared Price.

[Nick]

MLBTR...

 

By Connor Byrne | March 4, 2017 at 6:10pm CDT

 

There was fear this week that Red Sox left-hander David Price would need elbow surgery, but those worries were put to rest Friday. It turns out that elbow experts Dr. James Andrews and Dr. Neal ElAttrache diagnosed Price with a mild flexor strain and some bone spurs, industry sources told Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. That Price dodged a more serious injury surprised the doctors, the ace revealed. “They said it multiple times; we expected this to be a lot worse than what it really is,” said Price, who added that Andrews and ElAttrache informed him he has an “extremely unique” elbow. “It’s found a way to kind of heal itself,” he continued. “It’s pretty neat, bionic elbow.” Although Price avoided a season-ending issue, he’s still likely to begin the campaign on the disabled list and miss a to-be-determined amount of starts, according to Abraham. How much time Price misses will largely be up to him, though, as the doctors want the 31-year-old to map out his own recovery program. “I’ll know when I feel good enough to go out there and throw a baseball,” declared Price.

 

Dumb question....why can't Price not miss any turns at start, limiting his innings or pitch count? Hell, pitch 2 innings, pitch 3 innings and so forth and stretch him out?

Or pitch him out of bullpen?

[Kimmi]

7th best? I can't see how the Sox don't project as at least a top 3 AL team in 2017.

 

I agree with you. I have looked at his numbers and I can't make sense of how he has the entire AL East within 4 games of each other, with each team being close to .500. I know they are just projections and don't mean much as far as what happens on the field, but the projections usually are a good indication of how a team looks on paper. His projections seem to be way off.

 

FTR, I am going with 95 wins for our boys, assuming they stay relatively healthy.

[Kimmi]

Ah the token contrarian prediction.

 

A writer trying to look brighter thsn his colleagues by going against the grain, which is so easy to do in baseball given the tight ranges in winning percentages across league. ..

 

Davenport is a stat geek, one of the founders of Baseball Prospectus, I believe. He has developed his own projection system, not unlike PECOTA and your very own WAPM. He is usually fairly in line with the others.

[Kimmi]

He must think Papi was worth 10+ wins.

 

He would know better.

 

Speaking of 'wins', I was just reading about the newest version of WAR that's in the works. It uses Statcast data and should be much more relevant and understandable (as far as how the number is calculated) to the average fan, and hopefully to the anti WAR crowd as well.

 

I, for one, am excited.