A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[User Name]

Holt had unsustainable BABIP's in 14 and 15. Last year, he was right around .300 in that category and the real Brock Holt showed. He is what he is, a super sub who won't embarrass himself. He'd be a replacement level 2b but his versatility makes him really useful

 

Are you a stat guy then? BECAUSE YOU'RE UNDERVALUING HOLT AND YOU'LL NEVER GE IT.

[Eddy Ballgame]

How does this turn into a "stat guys will never get it" argument? That's a stupid leap-of-faith logical fallacy. You can't pigeonhole an entire group of people because someone said Holt is being overvalued.

 

I have nothing against "stats." They don't tell the whole story, though, especially in Holt's case. Someone stated their "opinion" that Holt was overrated by fans as if it was fact.

 

As someone else mentioned, Holt's probably a replacement level player at best if he played every day. Those guys are a dime a dozen, but a guy who shows up at the park every day, mentally and physically ready to play any one of 7 positions is extremely rare, and therein lies his value.

[moonslav59]

Stick to analyzing the stats, coming up with the same ridiculous trade proposals 400 times and copying and pasting minor league prospect rankings. In all seriousness, there's value in that on this message board. Try to avoid the human element of the game of baseball, though. Waaaayyyy over your head.

 

You are making wrong assumptions...again.

 

I played baseball for 20 years, just not at or above the college level.

 

I played inter hall football (with pads) at Notre Dame and was the starting receiver my fershman year and starting QB my senior year- both championship seasons in a tough league. I was also the starting point guard all 4 years on the inter-hall basketball team that included all state (basketball) players from the ND football team-- very high level ball. I sucked at baseball, but still started on the team every year. And, yes players pout when worse players are chosen to play instead of them or are placed higher in the line-up without merit.

 

I respect team chemistry and have seen examples of the good and the bad. I've also seen teams fall apart due to poor management and choices. I am very in tune with the "human element", so stop pretending you know who I am based on stat laden posts that support what I see on the field.

 

Holt is not our best sub at 5 of the 7 positions he plays. He's probably second best at 4 or 5 of them. He has stiff competition at the other two. He's a great team guy and has a lot of value. I've never said or hinted otherwise.

 

He will likely get more PAs than anyone else on our bench. Young is a near strick platoon player, but I'd still play him FT in LF over Holt, if an OF'er gets hurt. Rutledge will only play at 3B, so his PAs will be limited. I guess, to you, it's not important to keep him "fresh". Maybe you know more about him than I do. maybe the players and coaches all love Holt more. Koom-bee-freakin-yah!

 

I watch every pitch of every single Sox game since the 90's. I have spent way more time playing baseball than looking up stats. I've spent 10 times the amount of time watching Sox baseball than looking at numbers.

 

You don't know me.

[moonslav59]

How does this turn into a "stat guys will never get it" argument? That's a stupid leap-of-faith logical fallacy. You can't pigeonhole an entire group of people because someone said Holt is being overvalued.

 

...and, it assumes any stat guy cannot possibly understand the "human element". Like multifaceted humans don't exist.

[moonslav59]

I have nothing against "stats." They don't tell the whole story, though, especially in Holt's case. Someone stated their "opinion" that Holt was overrated by fans as if it was fact.

 

As someone else mentioned, Holt's probably a replacement level player at best if he played every day. Those guys are a dime a dozen, but a guy who shows up at the park every day, mentally and physically ready to play any one of 7 positions is extremely rare, and therein lies his value.

 

I've never argued either of those points, but you chose me to rant and rave at.

 

I love Holt. I happen to think he has more value to another team than ours. I gave my reasons why.

 

I feel his value to the team has slightly diminished now that we no longer have a DH-only DH, and guys like Young (4th OF'er), Moreland (1B), Rutledge (3B) and even Hernandez at AAA (SS, 3B, 2B) are all very capable subs- maybe not as good as Holt at some positions- maybe not as flexible as Holt, but as a whole, better than what we've had since Holt joined the Sox.

 

Saying someone's value has slightly diminished, is not saying he's not still very valuable.

 

BTW, I just recently brought in stats on Holt, unless you count games played as stats. (I don't.)

[notin]

You're underestimating the value of a guy who can play 7 positions at any given time. The first time the guy ever played first base in his life was at the major league level. There are maybe 3 or 4 guys in all of baseball who can do what he does throughout a full 162 game schedule. Stat guys will never get it, but his peers do. Trust me on this. He's as respected as anyone in that clubhouse.

 

Let's put it this way. Remember when all of the "stat people" were whining because Farrell was playing Jonny Gomes against righties in the playoffs on their way to a World Series Championship in 2013, despite the " stats" saying that he was wrong? Farrell's response was to the media was, "Good things seem to happen when he's in the line-up." You'll probably never understand because you've obviously never played the game at a high level, but Brock Holt is the type of player that "makes things happen" when he's in the line-up. Again, there's a reason why any team in baseball would love to have him on their roster, and yes, you want to get him in the line-up a few times a week to keep him fresh.

 

Actually stat guys DO get the value of versatility. When players play good defense in multiple positions, it actually inflates their fWAR values. This is why Ben Zobrist has found himself among the league leaders in fWAR, unless you think he got there by being one of the best players in MLB. ( He didn't.) I have even tried repeatedly (and so far, unsuccessfully) to label the process of inflating fWAR values by playing multiple positions as "Zobristing" and label the players who do it as "Zobristers."

 

Holt is a good role player for we hat he does,but his skillset is a lot more common than you realize, as there are getting to be quite a few players who play any of 6 or 7 positions. Jurickson Profar has done it. Zobrist certainly has. Arizona has taken to using Chris Owings that way. Martin Prado and Omar Infante both did it before settling in to regular positions. Also Brad Miller in Tampa. And these are just off the top of my head. (And Carlos Santana will be really close tjis year, but that's different because he's pretty awful at nearly all of them.)

 

Holt really is a weak infielder defensively and a decent outfielder who tends to get hot the less he plays. Sure other teams (notably the injury-prone Nationals) would have loved to get him. But his value probably peaked after his All Star appearance.

 

He is a good and useful player to have when injuries set in, even mild ones that just require a day off for someone. But the whole idea that he's more valuable to thr Sox is really very silly.

 

Also I think you might be VERY surprised at how many MLB first basemen started playing that position in the majors. Holt isn't even the only one on the Red Sox. In fact, without trying to figure it out, I would say nearly half of the first basemen in MLB started playing the position after getting to the majors. It's probably the only position like that.

 

So please stop with the "you never played the game in high school" condescension (which isn't even true). I could go on with the fallacies behind that insult. Or i could ask just how familiar you are with rest of MLB.

[Nick]

Holt sucks.....only reason I wouldn't trade him is because we'd get nothing in return. At least the Phillies took $12M off of our hands for Clay.

 

He made several miscues in outfield last year. Just because a guy 'tries' doesn't make him a good player. It's not T ball. Yeah, I appreciate that he gave the old college try but I rather not see him in OF, I'd take Travis over him at 1B, TODAY. I can't imagine he's our second best option at 3B, SS or 2B.

 

Okay, he doesn't suck....he's a bench player and he's on the team only because he can be the third option at 7 positions if you count DH.

Edited February 24, 2017 by Nick

[Eddy Ballgame]

Actually stat guys DO get the value of versatility. When players play good defense in multiple positions, it actually inflates their fWAR values. This is why Ben Zobrist has found himself among the league leaders in fWAR, unless you think he got there by being one of the best players in MLB. ( He didn't.) I have even tried repeatedly (and so far, unsuccessfully) to label the process of inflating fWAR values by playing multiple positions as "Zobristing" and label the players who do it as "Zobristers."

 

Holt is a good role player for we hat he does,but his skillset is a lot more common than you realize, as there are getting to be quite a few players who play any of 6 or 7 positions. Jurickson Profar has done it. Zobrist certainly has. Arizona has taken to using Chris Owings that way. Martin Prado and Omar Infante both did it before settling in to regular positions. Also Brad Miller in Tampa. And these are just off the top of my head. (And Carlos Santana will be really close tjis year, but that's different because he's pretty awful at nearly all of them.)

 

Holt really is a weak infielder defensively and a decent outfielder who tends to get hot the less he plays. Sure other teams (notably the injury-prone Nationals) would have loved to get him. But his value probably peaked after his All Star appearance.

 

He is a good and useful player to have when injuries set in, even mild ones that just require a day off for someone. But the whole idea that he's more valuable to thr Sox is really very silly.

 

Also I think you might be VERY surprised at how many MLB first basemen started playing that position in the majors. Holt isn't even the only one on the Red Sox. In fact, without trying to figure it out, I would say nearly half of the first basemen in MLB started playing the position after getting to the majors. It's probably the only position like that.

 

So please stop with the "you never played the game in high school" condescension (which isn't even true). I could go on with the fallacies behind that insult. Or i could ask just how familiar you are with rest of MLB.

 

First off, you are "Captain Condescending," so I would think you'd be able to handle it when you get it back a little. I'm done arguing about Brock Holt. I won't lose a second's sleep if he's traded tomorrow.

[Eddy Ballgame]

You are making wrong assumptions...again.

 

I played baseball for 20 years, just not at or above the college level.

 

I played inter hall football (with pads) at Notre Dame and was the starting receiver my fershman year and starting QB my senior year- both championship seasons in a tough league. I was also the starting point guard all 4 years on the inter-hall basketball team that included all state (basketball) players from the ND football team-- very high level ball. I sucked at baseball, but still started on the team every year. And, yes players pout when worse players are chosen to play instead of them or are placed higher in the line-up without merit.

 

I respect team chemistry and have seen examples of the good and the bad. I've also seen teams fall apart due to poor management and choices. I am very in tune with the "human element", so stop pretending you know who I am based on stat laden posts that support what I see on the field.

 

Holt is not our best sub at 5 of the 7 positions he plays. He's probably second best at 4 or 5 of them. He has stiff competition at the other two. He's a great team guy and has a lot of value. I've never said or hinted otherwise.

 

He will likely get more PAs than anyone else on our bench. Young is a near strick platoon player, but I'd still play him FT in LF over Holt, if an OF'er gets hurt. Rutledge will only play at 3B, so his PAs will be limited. I guess, to you, it's not important to keep him "fresh". Maybe you know more about him than I do. maybe the players and coaches all love Holt more. Koom-bee-freakin-yah!

 

I watch every pitch of every single Sox game since the 90's. I have spent way more time playing baseball than looking up stats. I've spent 10 times the amount of time watching Sox baseball than looking at numbers.

 

You don't know me.

 

Nice resume, Moonslav. I'm done arguing over something that we both see in a completely different light.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure the return we'd get for Holt would be more valuable than he is to us. I'm just guessing his value elsewhere would be more than here, so we should get something good in return. Again, I'd never just hand him away. I'd avoid trading him for a 2 month rental.

 

I think part of my reasoning for bringing up this whole Holt debate is that I have always been very high on Hernandez. I'm pretty sure he's already better than Holt at SS and close to his value at 3B and 2B. I've read scouting reports- some good- some not so good. Maybe I'm too high on the kid.

 

I also read an article about Rutledge, and how Ben always liked the guy and jumped at the chance to get him. It's certainly not his stats (especially his fielding stats) that have made me think he's probably a better platoon partner with Pablo than Holt vs LHPs. I'd probably take Holt over Rutledge vs RHPs, assuming Pablo gets hurt or flops.

 

While it's nice to have a guy that can play 1B in a pinch, we have Moreland & HanRam, and if either gets hurt, I feel Travis will get the nod over Holt. They might even move Swihart to 1B over giving Holt a long stint there.

 

Holt has looked okay in the OF, but he's not great there, and I like Young's offense much better, especially vs LHP but probably vs RHPs as well.

 

If Holt is not the number one go to back-up guy at any position, except 2B and maybe 3B, then I'm not sure his value is as high "on the field" as some might think it is.

 

I get the "clubhouse value". I get the unseen value he has that allows a manager to use other players more freely, knowing he has Holt on the bench to cover multiple positions, in case of an emergency.

 

I'd only trade him, if I think the upgrade we get at the position we traded for is more than the downgrade from Holt to Hernandez/Travis/Devers/Marrero.

 

[moonslav59]

Nice resume, Moonslav. I'm done arguing over something that we both see in a completely different light.

 

Sorry for getting snippy. I respect your opinions, but felt you got a little too condescending and presumptuous.

[harmony]

From Friday's FanGraphs chat with columnist Jeff Sullivan:

harmony

10:52

 

FanGraphs Depth Charts, Steamer and ZiPS project 2017 wRC+ of 105, 104 and 106 for Boston rookie Andrew Benintendi and 104, 105 and 103 for Seattle rookie Daniel Vogelbach. Each hitter is known for controlling the zone but who should post the better numbers this year?

 

Jeff Sullivan

10:52

 

Benintendi

 

 

ChiSox2020

9:08

 

Is Boston's outfield going to be all time great on both sides of the ball?

 

Jeff Sullivan

9:10

 

Allow me to say this much --

 

Top projected outfields, this season:

 

1. Angels, 11.8 WAR

2. Red Sox, 11.1

3. Pirates, 9.8

4. Marlins, 9.6

5. Nationals, 8.1

 

9:11

 

I know what you're getting at, and obviously there's massive upside if you're a huge fan of Benintendi. And I'm a pretty big fan of Benintendi! But at this juncture the Red Sox might not even have the best outfield in baseball *this season*, so it's way too early to talk about history

 

Carl Fogarty

9:24

 

Long-term who do you think emerges as the better hitter, Andrew Benintendi or Nomar Mazara?

 

Jeff Sullivan

9:24

 

Benintendi. Easy

 

9:25

 

I prefer both Benintendi's judgment and Benintendi's bat-to-ball skills

 

Dylan

10:50

 

Mets and Red Sox are playing each other today. Who's rotation do your prefer?

 

Jeff Sullivan

10:50

 

Red Sox, easily

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-22417/

[moonslav59]

It might take Beni more than a year to show greatness, but I'm pretty certain it's going to happen.

[Eddy Ballgame]

Sorry for getting snippy. I respect your opinions, but felt you got a little too condescending and presumptuous.

 

No worries, Moon. The airing of the grievances is healthy on these types of forums. I WAS being condescending and definitely too "douchy." It probably won't be the last time. We'll probably have more positive banter than bad moving forward, though. Cheers...

[oldtimer]

It might take Beni more than a year to show greatness, but I'm pretty certain it's going to happen.

 

From what I have read, Beni has a chance of batting in the #2 slot based on the fact that he is the only lefty currently thought of for the top 5 spots. He has the speed and the swing to be effective. It is a push though to put a rookie into such a pressure spot.

[Nick]

Beni, Beni, Beni....6 freaking years of team control.

[notin]

I'm keep my Benintendi expectations low, because you never know with younger players in their first full season. I'm hoping to be pleasantly surprised.

 

Now the rest of the team better come through anyway...

[Fisk]

I'm keep my Benintendi expectations low, because you never know with younger players in their first full season. I'm hoping to be pleasantly surprised.

 

Now the rest of the team better come through anyway...

 

I'm going to have high expectations, picture perfect swing reminds me of Fred Lynn.

[moonslav59]

From what I have read, Beni has a chance of batting in the #2 slot based on the fact that he is the only lefty currently thought of for the top 5 spots. He has the speed and the swing to be effective. It is a push though to put a rookie into such a pressure spot.

 

If he's hitting well enough to bat second, I'd put him first.

 

Pedey's base running is not what it used to be, and it was never really great to begin with.

 

At least vs RHPs, we could squeeze in 2 lefties this way:

1) Beni - L

2) Pedey

3) Betts

4) HanRam

5) JBJ - L

6) Bogey

7) Pablo- L/S

8) Moreland- L

9) Leon- S

 

It's going to be hard to mix up our lefties and righties this year, but I'd try to move Young into the top 5 vs LHPs:

1) Pedey

2) Bogey

3) Betts

4) HanRam

5) Young

6) JBJ-L

7) Beni-L

8) Rutledge/Holt-L

9) Leon-S/Vaz

[moonslav59]

I'm going to have high expectations, picture perfect swing reminds me of Fred Lynn.

 

I feel the same.'

 

I'm not sure if the success of Betts has affected my expectations for Beni, but the kid looks pure.

 

I remember saying before 2015, that Betts had a significant chance to be our top offensive player that year. He probably was our best all-around player, and he came close to being out top O guy too.

 

I'm not projecting Beni to be the best anything this year, but he could win ROY. It's possible he could have the second best OPS on the team, but I wouldn't go so far as to say he has a "significant chance" at doing so. (Maybe next year we could say that.)

[Fisk]

I think he has a good chance to be our second most productive player. He just has that feel.

[Fisk]

If he's hitting well enough to bat second, I'd put him first.

 

Pedey's base running is not what it used to be, and it was never really great to begin with.

 

At least vs RHPs, we could squeeze in 2 lefties this way:

1) Beni - L

2) Pedey

3) Betts

4) HanRam

5) JBJ - L

6) Bogey

7) Pablo- L/S

8) Moreland- L

9) Leon- S

 

It's going to be hard to mix up our lefties and righties this year, but I'd try to move Young into the top 5 vs LHPs:

1) Pedey

2) Bogey

3) Betts

4) HanRam

5) Young

6) JBJ-L

7) Beni-L

8) Rutledge/Holt-L

9) Leon-S/Vaz

 

I prefer Pedroia at lead off, good plate discipline and breaks up the righties. On a side note he also hits into a lot of double plays, can't do that leading off the game.

[cp176]

I'm going to have high expectations, picture perfect swing reminds me of Fred Lynn.

 

His swing does remind me of Lynn's. People just have to keep in mind that as he develops he will never have Lynn's size. I do think that his potential as a yearly all star isn't too much of a stretch.

[Fisk]

His swing does remind me of Lynn's. People just have to keep in mind that as he develops he will never have Lynn's size. I do think that his potential as a yearly all star isn't too much of a stretch.

 

Doesn't have the size but generates a lot of extra base hits.

[notin]

I'm going to have high expectations, picture perfect swing reminds me of Fred Lynn.

 

A great swings is nice, but also heavily dependent on the hitter knowing when to use it. Benintendi does so far appear to have good plate discipline. ...

[cp176]

Doesn't have the size but generates a lot of extra base hits.

 

I think that you are right.

[moonslav59]

I'd like to see him concentrate more on getting on base than HRs, at least not so early in his career. The XBHs will come.

[cp176]

I'd like to see him concentrate more on getting on base than HRs, at least not so early in his career. The XBHs will come.

 

I wasn't thinking home runs. Lots of doubles. If he stays fit, I don't see him ever turning in to a home run hitter.

[oldtimer]

I wasn't thinking home runs. Lots of doubles. If he stays fit, I don't see him ever turning in to a home run hitter.

 

With his swing he will square up a mistake and hit it out from time to time. If he gets a lot of at bats this year, and we are hoping for that, I wouldn't be surprised if he exceeds 15 Hrs.

[moonslav59]

With his swing he will square up a mistake and hit it out from time to time. If he gets a lot of at bats this year, and we are hoping for that, I wouldn't be surprised if he exceeds 15 Hrs.

 

I wouldn't either, and I think eventually, he'll hit over 20-25 regularly.

 

I'm just hoping he avoids "trying to be" a HR hitter.