A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Kimmi]

I can't see how any of the ops guys in the Sox front office ever thought signing Pablo was a good idea.

 

This reeked of Lucchino and PR from day one. "Ortiz is near the end, so let's sign another big, lovable guy with a "cute nickname" who seems to shine in the spotlight. He's perfect for this town. We need a 3rd baseman and there's not much else available, right?. He's still young, right? Can you imagine all of the "Panda" stuff we'll sell?"

I wish I was kidding.

 

100% agree that baseball ops people, especially those of the stathead variety, would not think that signing Pablo was a good idea. IMO, this definitely screams of Lucchino's influence.

 

That said, while I was against Pablo's contract, I can understand the baseball rationale in signing him. We needed a 3B, and Pablo should have been better than the production we received the previous year. It still wasn't a good signing, but it shouldn't have been this bad.

[Dojji]

I don't think Hanley was ever intended to be the third baseman. I'm under the impression that his shoulder won't allow him to field the position properly anymore.

[Kimmi]

If Pablo is reduced to platooning with Rutledge, after all the work he has put in to lose weight, that's a disaster.

 

Contract wise, yes, it would be a disaster.

 

Baseball wise, perhaps getting a day off regularly would help keep him healthy and 'fresh'.

 

Good to see you posting.

[Station 13]

[Kimmi]

From what I've read, it sounds like Hanley wants to DH a lot. It doesn't sound like he's the least bit upset about losing some playing time at 1B. It also sounds like he is taking on more of a leadership role in the absence of Papi. Our boy has grown up.

[Station 13]

From what I've read, it sounds like Hanley wants to DH a lot. It doesn't sound like he's the least bit upset about losing some playing time at 1B. It also sounds like he is taking on more of a leadership role in the absence of Papi. Our boy has grown up.

 

He's having fun, expect him to hit a lot in DH.

[Kimmi]

 

It's awesome seeing pictures from spring training. We're getting close!

[Kimmi]

He's having fun, expect him to hit a lot in DH.

 

I think he will.

[Station 13]

It's awesome seeing pictures from spring training. We're getting close!

 

We need a spring training thread.

[Kimmi]

We need a spring training thread.

 

We do. You should start one.

[moonslav59]

I don't think Hanley was ever intended to be the third baseman. I'm under the impression that his shoulder won't allow him to field the position properly anymore.

 

I was talking about when we signed him. He hurt the shoulder while playing LF after the signing.

 

Eventually, I saw him taking over at DH.

[S5Dewey]

I can't see how any of the ops guys in the Sox front office ever thought signing Pablo was a good idea.

 

This reeked of Lucchino and PR from day one. "Ortiz is near the end, so let's sign another big, lovable guy with a "cute nickname" who seems to shine in the spotlight. He's perfect for this town. We need a 3rd baseman and there's not much else available, right?. He's still young, right? Can you imagine all of the "Panda" stuff we'll sell?"

I wish I was kidding.

 

...and I wish this form had a "like" button.

[southpaw777]

From what I've read, it sounds like Hanley wants to DH a lot. It doesn't sound like he's the least bit upset about losing some playing time at 1B. It also sounds like he is taking on more of a leadership role in the absence of Papi. Our boy has grown up.

 

This is my opinion too...I think being back with Papi for two years helped and he looks to have matured some. I think he will take a leadership role. I like the fact that he basically said he cant fill Papis shoes (who can?) but himself and a couple other veteran players will be there to help in any way. Seems like hes perfectly fine with his role on this team. That can only mean 30/100 or more if hes healthy.

[moonslav59]

I think it was a given that either HanRam or Pablo would move to DH once Papi retired. I'm glad HanRam likes the idea. It's not always easy for players to transition to the DH role, but HR has done well in a small sample size at DH.

 

I think him playing 1B vs LHPs (about 23% of starts) works perfectly in keeping him sharp and ready to play 1B in NL parks.

 

Whenever Devers is ML ready (2018?), we could see Pablo move to 1B with HR continuing to play 1B vs LHPs.

[Nick]

I think it was a given that either HanRam or Pablo would move to DH once Papi retired. I'm glad HanRam likes the idea. It's not always easy for players to transition to the DH role, but HR has done well in a small sample size at DH.

 

I think him playing 1B vs LHPs (about 23% of starts) works perfectly in keeping him sharp and ready to play 1B in NL parks.

 

Whenever Devers is ML ready (2018?), we could see Pablo move to 1B with HR continuing to play 1B vs LHPs.

 

I think you'll see Sam Travis sometime during 2017.....book it.

[a700hitter]

I think you'll see Sam Travis sometime during 2017.....book it.

He should get a lot of ABs in camp this Spring, because Hanley will be at the WBC.

[Fisk]

He should get a lot of ABs in camp this Spring, because Hanley will be at the WBC.

 

He had a really good spring last year, definitely will see him at some point this year. Also not having played in nine months they are going to give him a lot of at bats.

[cp176]

He had a really good spring last year, definitely will see him at some point this year. Also not having played in nine months they are going to give him a lot of at bats.

 

Sam Travis is another good one who has fought the - he is not big enough - he is not fast enough- ... forever. All he has done is hit and hit well wherever he has played. We have seen guys like this before. They just get it done. I hope he is healthy.

[moonslav59]

I think you'll see Sam Travis sometime during 2017.....book it.

 

Agreed.

 

It's not by chance our two highest non pitching prospects play 1B and 3B.

[moonslav59]

Sam Travis... hit well wherever he has played....

 

Until last year's .765 in 195 PAs at AAA, Travis has been remarkably consistent. He has been between .813 and .845 at every place he's been.

 

If he can hit over .800 at the ML level, he might be replacing Moreland- assuming he is struggling.

[moonslav59]

This on Holt from MLBTR...

 

While there’s interest across the majors in utilityman Brock Holt, the Red Sox aren’t looking to trade him, writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. “Many clubs like him a great deal,” said president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. Since debuting in the majors with Pittsburgh in 2012, the versatile Holt has seen action everywhere but catcher and pitcher, though Boston doesn’t have an obvious place to put him this year. Most of Holt’s playing time last season came in left field, where ballyhooed rookie Andrew Benintendi will line up in 2017. Even including 2016, though, the majority of Holt’s big league experience has come at third base, but the Red Sox are banking on a revival at the hot corner from fellow lefty-swinger Pablo Sandoval. Thus, barring another poor showing from Sandoval – which is quite possible, of course – Holt could struggle to find reps. Nevertheless, Holt told Cafardo he’s “extremely happy” to be in Boston. The 2015 All-Star is under Red Sox control through the 2019 season.

[oldtimer]

This on Holt from MLBTR...

 

While there’s interest across the majors in utilityman Brock Holt, the Red Sox aren’t looking to trade him, writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. “Many clubs like him a great deal,” said president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. Since debuting in the majors with Pittsburgh in 2012, the versatile Holt has seen action everywhere but catcher and pitcher, though Boston doesn’t have an obvious place to put him this year. Most of Holt’s playing time last season came in left field, where ballyhooed rookie Andrew Benintendi will line up in 2017. Even including 2016, though, the majority of Holt’s big league experience has come at third base, but the Red Sox are banking on a revival at the hot corner from fellow lefty-swinger Pablo Sandoval. Thus, barring another poor showing from Sandoval – which is quite possible, of course – Holt could struggle to find reps. Nevertheless, Holt told Cafardo he’s “extremely happy” to be in Boston. The 2015 All-Star is under Red Sox control through the 2019 season.

 

Very interesting take Moon. Having him available is like an insurance policy. Hope you don't need to use him but nice to have if the need arises.

[Fisk]

Best to use Holt a few times a week that's when he's most productive, always seems to wear down.

[moonslav59]

Best to use Holt a few times a week that's when he's most productive, always seems to wear down.

 

Last year he only had 324 PAs and still faded late in the season.

 

Career OPS by month:

 

.840 APR

.646 MAY

.828 JUN

.707 JUL

.618 AUG

.652 SEP

 

.788 first half

.620 second half

 

I've caught some grief for holding this position, but I still think Holt's value is greater on another team than ours, where they could use him more often, and where a .700 OPS is better than what some starters give those teams. Also, his best position is 2B, and that is a spot he just won't get much time playing in Boston, unless there's an unfortunate injury.

 

Holt is great as an emergency jack-of-all-trades, but if we need someone to cover a position for a 10+ day stretch, here's how I see Holt's placement on our depth extended need chart:

 

2B: Holt (Hernandez very capable/Marrero capable)

SS: Hernandez then Holt or Marrero

3B: Rutledge then Holt or Hernandez

LF: Young then Holt, then or Quentin/Moreland

1B: Moreland or HanRam, then Travis, then Holt

CF or RF: Young then Holt

 

As much as I love having a guy like Holt on our 25 man roster, I see him as the top sub at only one position (2B) and maybe pretty close at 2 more (3B & SS). That alone is not reason to trade him, and I wouldn't go out of my way to trade him at least until we know more about Pablo.

 

I could see him being part of a package at the deadline to fill a need that arises over the season.

 

(Note: I'm not bashing Holt. I like him a lot, but the foundation of any trade usually starts with the idea that a player might have more value with the other team...and vice versa.

[Fisk]

I feel the value of playing multiple positions is extremely valuable to a team, but with that being said Marco Hernandez might develop that ability with a better bat.

[moonslav59]

I feel the value of playing multiple positions is extremely valuable to a team, but with that being said Marco Hernandez might develop that ability with a better bat.

 

It surely has value. Now that we don't have DH only, I think the need is not so great

[Fisk]

It surely has value. Now that we don't have DH only, I think the need is not so great

 

Still think we have the need , still a 4 man bench.

[moonslav59]

Still think we have the need , still a 4 man bench.

 

Agreed, but HanRam can play 1B and Moreland can play 1B and corner OF.

 

Papi could play 1B in NL parks, but that was about it.

 

I agree; every team needs good subs, and having one that can play many positions is a great value to have, but I think Holt would play more on other teams. That seems to indicate his value would be higher on other teams. That does not mean we should trade him, but sometimes it becomes the foundation for a trade.

 

In theory, the drop off from Holt to Hernandez would be more than offset by the improvement at the position we trade for. Plus, I'm not even sure there's be a drop off at some positions, if Hernandez takes his place.

 

Here's a possible scenario: let's say Pablo sucks or gets hurt, we could maybe trade Holt for Todd Frazier at the deadline or beforehand.

 

BTW MLBTR reports....

 

If Pablo Sandoval doesn’t reestablish himself as a capable third baseman this year, the Red Sox could eventually swing a trade for Todd Frazier of the White Sox, writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Chicago will have paid more than half of Frazier’s $12.5MM salary by the trade deadline, which should make the 31-year-old an attractive target for Boston or other contenders, Cafardo observes. Given that the White Sox are amid a rebuild, it seems they’d prefer to ship out established veterans like Frazier sooner than later, as general manager Rick Hahn implied in an interview with MLBTR contributor Brett Ballantini earlier this week.

[Fisk]

Agreed, but HanRam can play 1B and Moreland can play 1B and corner OF.

 

Papi could play 1B in NL parks, but that was about it.

 

I agree; every team needs good subs, and having one that can play many positions is a great value to have, but I think Holt would play more on other teams. That seems to indicate his value would be higher on other teams. That does not mean we should trade him, but sometimes it becomes the foundation for a trade.

 

In theory, the drop off from Holt to Hernandez would be more than offset by the improvement at the position we trade for. Plus, I'm not even sure there's be a drop off at some positions, if Hernandez takes his place.

 

Here's a possible scenario: let's say Pablo sucks or gets hurt, we could maybe trade Holt for Todd Frazier at the deadline or beforehand.

 

BTW MLBTR reports....

 

If Pablo Sandoval doesn’t reestablish himself as a capable third baseman this year, the Red Sox could eventually swing a trade for Todd Frazier of the White Sox, writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Chicago will have paid more than half of Frazier’s $12.5MM salary by the trade deadline, which should make the 31-year-old an attractive target for Boston or other contenders, Cafardo observes. Given that the White Sox are amid a rebuild, it seems they’d prefer to ship out established veterans like Frazier sooner than later, as general manager Rick Hahn implied in an interview with MLBTR contributor Brett Ballantini earlier this week.

 

Not a big fan of Fraziers 225 average and high strikeout rate, to me he is Mark Reynolds of a few years ago.

[Nick]

Per Fangraph

 

Rafael Devers slashed a solid .282/.335/.443 at high-A Salem last year. Those numbers don’t leap off the page, but there is no denying his ceiling. The left-handed-hitting third baseman is the top prospect in the Red Sox organization among those with no MLB experience.

 

Devers, who didn’t turn 20 until after the season, started slow in 2016. Then he caught fire. From June onward, the promising young power hitter put up an .883 OPS. By all accounts, his turnaround wasn’t fueled by a specific adjustment.

 

Devers said after the season that he stuck with the routine he’s always had, and that it was “basically about putting in the work every day, and trying to be consistent.” He told me that he couldn’t explain it any other way. Farm director Ben Crockett couldn’t point to any major changes either. He said that high-A hitting coach Nelson Paulino primarily focused on helping Devers be ready on time, and be short to the ball.

 

The long balls started coming in July, but despite the second-half power surge, he finished the campaign with just 11 home runs. I asked Devers if he was disappointed with that number.

 

“I actually feel happy,” answered Devers. “Early in the year, I didn’t think I was going to even hit five, so to end up with 11 made me feel good. I think I can hit a lot more than that, though.”