A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[notin]

I know there's a chance waiting may cost more as far as what we give to make a trade happen at the deadline. But it might be smart to consider one of these guys. Blanton might be good 5th SP insurance and he's a RHP. Holland might be worth a look. Most of these guys splits vs the ALE (or the Guardians or the Rangers) are very SSS it's hard to get a good read on them. If it doesn't stop us from a trade deadline acquisition I might be up for it. Still think waiting until mid-season when we can more accurately identify a need would be the best route to take.

 

At this poiin the off-season, I would want the Sox to stockpile pitching depth for both the rotation and the bullpen. Pitchers like these are upgrades, but do not help in depth. While upgrades are certainly good, waiting until July when needs are easily identifiable does make some sense...

[moonslav59]

At this poiin the off-season, I would want the Sox to stockpile pitching depth for both the rotation and the bullpen. Pitchers like these are upgrades, but do not help in depth. While upgrades are certainly good, waiting until July when needs are easily identifiable does make some sense...

 

Agreed, but I still think the bottom of our pen is questionable, at best, but I guess it doesn't hurt to let things play out and see what we need mid season.

 

The problem with mid season is that we can't always expect a Brad Ziegler to come to us at such a "low" cost. We can, in theory, afford about a $4-5M FA and then still be able to trade for a $4-5M remaining contract at the deadline.

 

I'm not sure any of the RP'ers listed below can be had for $4-5M, so waiting is likely the solution. I just hate to have a plan that involves trading away even more of the farm later.

[notin]

Agreed, but I still think the bottom of our pen is questionable, at best, but I guess it doesn't hurt to let things play out and see what we need mid season.

 

The problem with mid season is that we can't always expect a Brad Ziegler to come to us at such a "low" cost. We can, in theory, afford about a $4-5M FA and then still be able to trade for a $4-5M remaining contract at the deadline.

 

I'm not sure any of the RP'ers listed below can be had for $4-5M, so waiting is likely the solution. I just hate to have a plan that involves trading away even more of the farm later.

I

The bottom of every bullpen is questionable right now. Most teams don't spend money on their 5th, 6th and 7th relievers. The budget for the backend is limited for everyone, and the only pitchets who fit into it are usually a talent crapshoot. Getting a good pitcher is like winning a lottery.

 

And how do you hedge your bets in a lottery? Sign as many tickets as possible to minor league deals...

Edited January 2, 2017 by notin

[Kimmi]

I

The bottom of every bullpen is questionable right now. Most teams don't spend money on their 5th, 6th and 7th relievers. The budget for the backend is limited for everyone, and the only pitchets who fit into it are usually a talent crapshoot. Getting a good pitcher is like winning a lottery.

 

And how do you hedge your bets in a lottery? Sign as many tickets as possible to minor league deals...

 

I agree. And I also think that if it means sending one of your relievers who has options to AAA for a while to keep more tickets, then you do it.

[moonslav59]

I

The bottom of every bullpen is questionable right now. Most teams don't spend money on their 5th, 6th and 7th relievers. The budget for the backend is limited for everyone, and the only pitchets who fit into it are usually a talent crapshoot. Getting a good pitcher is like winning a lottery.

 

And how do you hedge your bets in a lottery? Sign as many tickets as possible to minor league deals...

 

I think a lot of our evaluation of the pen depends on Carson Smith's return. Without him, I see the need for a number 3 or 4 pen arm- not a 5-6-7 type. Pushing Ross, Kelly and Barnes to the 5-6-7 slots instead of 3-4-5 or 4-5-6 would be a big plus.

 

If we got a Holland type, I'd put him as our #3, at least until Smith returned and showed he was capable of being a 7th/8th inning set-up man.

 

I'm not saying getting one of these guys is a must, especially if their price tag is over $4-5M, but as of right now, I view our pen and 3B as our clear weakest links.

 

While other teams also have weak pen depth, some don't. Look at the Guardians, for example; not only are they strong at the closer and set-up roles, but they are deeper than deep.

 

1.2 Cody Allen

2.7 A Miller

.5 D Otero

.4 B Shaw

.4 Z McAllister

.2 C Anderson

 

Swingmen:

.7 Clevinger

.5 T Cooney

.3 R Merritt

 

That's 9 pen guys with a projected WAR of over 0.2!

8 over 0.3

7 over o.4

 

We have 7 over 0.2.

6 over 0.3

5 over 0.4

 

1.6 Kimbrel

1.1 J Kelly

.4 Thornburg

.4 Ross

.3 Smith

.2 Barnes

 

Swingmen

.9 Wright

.1 Elias

.0 Owens & Johnson

 

I'm usually not one to suggest we need to copy the most recent successful teams' winning strategy, but building a deep pen seems to be a wide trend for winning teams these days, especially with 2-3 strong set-up men.

 

We lost Ziegler and Uehara (plus Tazawa) and added Thornburg (and maybe C Smith).

 

Our pen really hurt us last year, until the end, so getting worse at an area of need is usually not a way to get better.

 

.

[Spudboy]

Fair question.

 

To me it would be excessive successes beyond what the batter can control. I wouldn't consider home runs random. But far greater success on groundballs and flyballs.

 

Basically if a hitter's BABIP greatly exceeds his xBABIP, I would consider that a product of randomness.

 

Ok. Your turn...

 

I had a random event happen to me at Fenway.

 

I had sat in the Left Field Grandstands. A Pigeon shat on my head.

 

That was random.

[notin]

I had a random event happen to me at Fenway.

 

I had sat in the Left Field Grandstands. A Pigeon shat on my head.

 

That was random.

 

Actually I paid that pigeon. Best use of 3 popcorn kernels ever...

 

[a700hitter]

I had a random event happen to me at Fenway.

 

I had sat in the Left Field Grandstands. A Pigeon shat on my head.

 

That was random.

Unless he was aiming for you. LOL!

[jacksonianmarch]

Carson Smith had his surgery in the spring last year. Don't expect him back til the ASB and he still might not be himself until 2018. But if he does come back as himself, the back end looks good

[a700hitter]

Carson Smith had his surgery in the spring last year. Don't expect him back til the ASB and he still might not be himself until 2018. But if he does come back as himself, the back end looks good

At which point he will no longer be under contract?

[moonslav59]

Unless he was aiming for you. LOL!

 

Maybe he made a mechanical adjustment after missing him in the first inning.

[a700hitter]

Maybe he made a mechanical adjustment after missing him in the first inning.

That is why they s*** so much. Repetition fine tunes the bowel memory. Edited January 2, 2017 by a700hitter

[moonslav59]

In 2016, our pen finished ....

 

14th in WHIP at 1.28 (just 0.02 from 16th place)

 

12th in xFIP at 4.03 (just 0.08 from 16th place)

 

We lost:

 

47 IP Uehara 0.96 WHIP/ 3.42 xFIP

 

30 IP Ziegler 1.25 WHIP/ 3.11 xFIP

 

50 IP Tazawa 1.23 WHIP/ 3.79 xFIP

 

That's 127 IP out of 407 relief IP in 2016 (31%).

 

We added Thornburg:

 

67 IP 0.94 WHIP/ 3.28 xFIP

 

We may get some IP from a returning Carson Smith, but does anybody really feel confident about our 3-5 RP'ers?

 

3) Kelly (Smith when he returns)

4) Ross

5) Barnes

 

These guys would look real good as our 5-6-7's or maybe 4-5-6's, but I'd like to see us find a solid #3 or 4 by opening day without losing a big chunk of our flex spending saved for a deadline move, if needed.

 

[moonslav59]

That is why they s*** so much. Repetition fine tunes the vowel memory.

 

"Vowel" or "Bowel"?

[a700hitter]

"Vowel" or "Bowel"?

typo. I will fix.

[notin]

At which point he will no longer be under contract?

 

Per Soxprospects.com, Carson Smith has just over 2 years of service time, meaning he pitches 2017 for the league minimum, and is eligible for arbitration in 2018, 2019, and 2020. Currently the Red Sox control him for all those years....

[moonslav59]

Per Soxprospects.com, Carson Smith has just over 2 years of service time, meaning he pitches 2017 for the league minimum, and is eligible for arbitration in 2018, 2019, and 2020. Currently the Red Sox control him for all those years....

 

cots has the same info.

[Nick]

cots has the same info.

 

Nerd that I am, I have it on my desk top, sorted by positions for quick reference. Ok, I have way too much time.

 

Next event of interest is where the arbitration numbers stack up.

[a700hitter]

Per Soxprospects.com, Carson Smith has just over 2 years of service time, meaning he pitches 2017 for the league minimum, and is eligible for arbitration in 2018, 2019, and 2020. Currently the Red Sox control him for all those years....

That's good to know.

[moonslav59]

Nerd that I am, I have it on my desk top, sorted by positions for quick reference. Ok, I have way too much time.

 

Next event of interest is where the arbitration numbers stack up.

 

His injury will help keep his arb costs down for a while.

[moonslav59]

Maybe pie-in-the-sky, but what if Pablo looks good in ST'ing?

 

Would SFG take him off our hands, if we paid $10M of his $19M a year?

 

Word is the CWS are willing to pay part of Robertson's contract in a trade. With the $9M saved on Pablo, maybe we could trade for Todd Frazier (est $12M arb) and David Robertson (pay enough of his salary to stay under the limit).

 

The problem is, what prospects do we have left that the CWS would want without giving up Devers, Groome or Travis?

 

Also, who plays 3B in 2018?

 

Maybe this is more like mud-in-the eye than pie-in-the-sky.

 

Never mind. Just useless boredom surfacing.

[mvp 78]

If he looks good in ST, you keep him and cross your fingers and toes.

[moonslav59]

If he looks good in ST, you keep him and cross your fingers and toes.

 

Even if he looks average or slightly below, we're still stuck with him, but we'll have to cross our arms and legs too.

 

If he sucks... Oh NOoooooo!!!!!

[Nick]

Even if he looks average or slightly below, we're still stuck with him, but we'll have to cross our arms and legs too.

 

If he sucks... Oh NOoooooo!!!!!

 

I'm thinking should he have a decent year, then we trade him. It will be one less year on his contract. Hopefully Devers is making enough progress to warrant a 2018 call up.

 

If we can will it all in 2017, then DD will have earned additional 'good grace' to do something extraordinary.

[moonslav59]

I'm thinking should he have a decent year, then we trade him. It will be one less year on his contract. Hopefully Devers is making enough progress to warrant a 2018 call up.

 

I said the same about HanRam after the 2015 season.

 

Trade him while his stock is high (assuming he had a good 2016 season).

 

I don't feel that way anymore, but part of me still thinks HR may suck or get hurt this year. His recent ups and downs are concerning.

 

I do like Devers much more than Travis, so we may have a better result trading Pablo. I doubt Travis outplays HanRam in 2017 or 2018.

[moonslav59]

I'm thinking should he have a decent year, then we trade him. It will be one less year on his contract. Hopefully Devers is making enough progress to warrant a 2018 call up.

 

If we can will it all in 2017, then DD will have earned additional 'good grace' to do something extraordinary.

 

I do think Pablo will rebound. I remember catching flack for just mentioning his name as possible 3B competition for 2017 back in late fall/early winter 2016.

[Nick]

I do think Pablo will rebound. I remember catching flack for just mentioning his name as possible 3B competition for 2017 back in late fall/early winter 2016.

 

If he plays well, then we'll have more options with him.

 

Not that it matters, but isn't this Craig's last year? St. Louis sure knew something about him that we didn't.

[moonslav59]

If he plays well, then we'll have more options with him.

 

Not that it matters, but isn't this Craig's last year? St. Louis sure knew something about him that we didn't.

 

Yes, Craig gets $11M this year plus a $1M buyout next year. None of this counts on the luxury tax budget, because he's not on the 40 man roster.

 

Castillo still has $11.7M due for three more years and then a $14.3M final year- also not on the 40 man roster.

 

When people say they wonder why Henry is trying to avoid paying a luxury tax, one could look at these two guys and see it as already paying $25M for the "luxury" of having the funds to take a chance on them.

 

Losing Castillo's $11M should make paying a luxury tax next year a little easier, especially if we can, indeed, reset the tax rate this season.

[moonslav59]

Lots of arb players about to get started or start making serious money in raises:

 

winter 2017-2018:

 

Betts: 1st of 3

Bogey: 2nd of 3

JBJ: 2nd of 4

Pomeranz, Kelly & Ross: 3 of 3

Thornburg, Holt, Rutledge: 2 of 3

C Smith, ERod, Swihart, Wright and Vaz: 1st of 3 or 4

 

 

[Nick]

Don't forget Kimbrel has $13M club option after 2017 season. My feeling is that he's a DD guy and his option will be picked up, UNLESS SMITH, THORNBURG AND KELLY goes nuts in 2017.