A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[mvp 78]

Why? There are two days off in the first two weeks. Would you suggest starting the year with a six man rotation? Or would you add one more to the pen?

 

But.. ok. If we go with 13 pitchers we still have the same problem, only we do get to add one more from the four homeless ones - but he may very well not see any innings.

 

That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that you need to have a 40 man roster with more than 12 good arms. It's not a "logjam," it's proper roster construction.

[moonslav59]

Keeping Abad instead of Barnes, Ross or ERod is a weird goal, imo.

 

I agree and have said that all along in the ERod to AAA debate, which is where this statement's context lies.

 

If Ross or Barnes struggles in ST'ing or has a little nagging injury, I could see us wanting to keep Abad and Hembree on our roster somehow-someway.

 

I don't think there's a big step down from Abad/Hembree to Scott/Workman, so losing one is not a big deal to me.

[moonslav59]

I just think Pom showed that he has a ton of upside as a starter last year. I'd give him another shot to see if the first half was a fluke. If it doesn't work out, he can go to the pen.

 

Wright had an awesome first half too, but in the AL in the toughest division in MLB. Only Kershaw and Bumgarner had a better 1st half ERA- than Wright.

[mvp 78]

Wright had an awesome first half too, but in the AL in the toughest division in MLB. Only Kershaw and Bumgarner had a better 1st half ERA- than Wright.

 

He's a great option as long as it's not too humid and the forecast is 0% chance of rain.

[moonslav59]

Was he on an innings limit last year?

 

I don't think so. He had pitched many innings in previous years on the farm. He's in winter ball now.

[moonslav59]

ERod is your #4. I know everyone looks at the overall numbers, but he was your second best starter once his health returned. That kid is going to be a good pitcher.

 

I totally agree. I know that Pom and Wright had excellent first halves this year, but to me, ERod is the #4 on paper right now.

[moonslav59]

To me, the only real roster issue is concerning Abad and Hembree's lack of options. Since Abad has just one year of team control, and his arb cost is estimated at $2M, trading or cutting him would not be a huge loss. I mean, we traded Pat freakin' Light for him last summer. We can trade for someone like him again, if needed. I can see us trading Abad near the end of ST'ing for a RP'er with options, if a roster crunch materializes.

 

Assuming no injuries at all, which is highly unlikely, so all this roster crunch debate would go down the drain the second one or two pitchers go on the DL, here's how I see it. Smith will not be on the opening day roster, so that prolongs one decision.

 

Locks: Kimbrel & Thornburg

 

Near locks: [Pom or Wright], Ross 2 options, Kelly 1, Barnes 2

 

That leaves room for one guy out of... (options remaining)

 

In order of skill level, in my opinion:

 

Hembree 0

Abad 0

Scott 3

Elias 1

Workman 2

Martin 3

Johnson 1/Owens 2

N Ramirez 1

Ysla 3

 

I know it's the time of year with not much to talk about, but is keeping Abad really all that important?

 

I could see a benefit of trading him, and adding $2M to out spending budget as worth more than he is regardless of a "roster crunch".

 

Someone will get hurt. If not, someone can go on the phantom DL.

 

The real roster crunch may come when Smith is ready, but again, someone will be hurt by then.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

He's a great option as long as it's not too humid and the forecast is 0% chance of rain.

 

Wake seemed to do better when sweat was dripping off his face.

[Bellhorn04]

Wake had some of his best numbers in domes, though, right? The knuckleball is a funny pitch.

[moonslav59]

Wake had some of his best numbers in domes, though, right? The knuckleball is a funny pitch.

 

Yes, but I always thought that had to do with no wind.

 

His worst career ERA month was May. Tow of his best 3 were June and July.

 

His 3.29 ERA at TB makes us remember his dome advantage, but he also had...

 

Away ERA: 4.52

 

8.44 HOU -MinMaid

4.91 HOU- Astrodome

4.54 MN Metrodome

4.65 YOR Skydome

9.54 SEA Kingdome

3.43 SEA Safeco

 

[mvp 78]

Wake had some of his best numbers in domes, though, right? The knuckleball is a funny pitch.

 

Yup, each knuckleballer is a distinct animal. They talk about it in the Knuckleball! doc. It's hard for guys to coach one another when things go awry because each guy truly has a unique pitch.

 

Wake did love pitching at the Metrodome and the Trop. His best away park was Comerica, probably due to the huge OF. Of course, Skydome was a nightmare for him (worst WHIP for any stadium he pitched at more than 5 times).

 

He also did well at Kauffman, most likely due to the large OF there as well.

[moonslav59]

I pitched a knuckleball in slow-pitch softball for many years. I seemed to do best when I was pitching into a wind (yes wind blowing out). Lots of Ks- lots of long fly outs- lots of solo HRs, but overall, I did pretty well.

[notin]

Pretty close, in my mind, because of the pen. Wright or Pom in the pen greatly improves it.

 

ERod in AAA does nothing for our pen, except to maybe allow us to hold onto Abad or Hembree, which is nothing a creative DL can't handle.

 

Pom & Wright both have pen experience and could provide long and middle relief like nobody else in our pen, except maybe Kelly, but I think grooming him for the 7th or 8th inning set-up man makes more sense. However, if we are going to view Kelly as a possible spot starter and use him as the long man to start the year, I guess starting ERod in AAA could happen. I still think he'd have to be struggling in ST'ing for that to even be a consideration.

 

Just my opinion.

 

I agree. I get the feeling that sometimes people might confuse him with Felix Doubront.

 

If he has a solid spring and gets demoted to Pawtucket, this kid is going to be irate. These things always seem to work themselves out anyway, but I can't see them demoting him unless it's warranted.

 

Well someone will not be starting, even if all six have stellar springs.

 

Sale, Price and Porcello are starters if healthy.

 

That leaves Pomeranz, Wright and Rodriguez. Unlike me, the Sox seem to view Pomeranz as a starter. And they probably should given what they paid for him.

 

Wright could go to the bullpen, but in limited action he has fared better as a starter in his career.

 

So if one guy isn't in the rotation, should it be one of the two pitchers who played in the All Star game last yea? Or Rodriguez?

[Eddy Ballgame]

Well someone will not be starting, even if all six have stellar springs.

 

Sale, Price and Porcello are starters if healthy.

 

That leaves Pomeranz, Wright and Rodriguez. Unlike me, the Sox seem to view Pomeranz as a starter. And they probably should given what they paid for him.

 

Wright could go to the bullpen, but in limited action he has fared better as a starter in his career.

 

So if one guy isn't in the rotation, should it be one of the two pitchers who played in the All Star game last yea? Or Rodriguez?

 

Whether or not a guy made the all-star team "last year" wouldn't have any influence on my decision. Dombrowski said after the Sale trade that E-Rod & Pomeranz would be 4 & 5.

 

My guess is that in the unlikely event that all 6 starters remain healthy and all pitch well this spring, Wright or Pomeranz goes to the pen. Wright, because it would take him a lot less time to be stretched out if and when they need a starter and Pomeranz because he's actually done it. I don't think It would be very wise to screw with Rodriguez mentally, either, and that's exactly what you would be doing if he has a good spring.

[moonslav59]

Well someone will not be starting, even if all six have stellar springs.

 

Sale, Price and Porcello are starters if healthy.

 

That leaves Pomeranz, Wright and Rodriguez. Unlike me, the Sox seem to view Pomeranz as a starter. And they probably should given what they paid for him.

 

Wright could go to the bullpen, but in limited action he has fared better as a starter in his career.

 

So if one guy isn't in the rotation, should it be one of the two pitchers who played in the All Star game last yea? Or Rodriguez?

 

Again, I see a big loss putting one of those three in AAA, so the choice is primarily about who is the better two starters, and secondarily about who is best for the pen.

 

Personally, I like ERod best of the 3 as a starter, but I realize it is close, and a case can be made for each one, but I also have ERod listed as 3rd out of the three for the pen, so to me the choice should be beween Pom and Wright for the pen.

 

Pom and Wright have recent pen experience.

[Bellhorn04]

Wright starting the year in the pen seems like the most logical scenario.

[moonslav59]

Wright starting the year in the pen seems like the most logical scenario.

 

I think that's what will happen, although I have a slight preference for Wright as the 5th starter.

 

He'll get his chance to prove he's a better starter, if indeed he is.

[moonslav59]

SP1 Sale

SP2 Porcello

SP3 Price

SP4 ERod

SP5 Pom

SP6/Long Relief Wright

 

Closer Kimbrel

RP2 Thornburg

RP3 (Smith) Kelly

RP4 Ross

RP5 Barnes

RP6 Hembree or Abad (both out of options)

 

AAA

SP7 Elias

SP8 Johnson

SP9 Owens

(SP10 Kelly?)

 

RP8 Scott

RP9 Workman

RP10 Ysla

RP11 Martin

RP12 N Ramirez

RP13 Olmos (Owens/Johnson/Elias)

[Spudboy]

I agree. I get the feeling that sometimes people might confuse him with Felix Doubront.

If he has a solid spring and gets demoted to Pawtucket, this kid is going to be irate. These things always seem to work themselves out anyway, but I can't see them demoting him unless it's warranted.

 

Lol the bolded line.

 

I don't care about the kid being irate. I agree with what you have said and I think Jacko is correct as well.

[Spudboy]

Wake seemed to do better when sweat was dripping off his face.

 

I loved Wake but he did not have the 17 MPH variation on his Knuckler.

 

Maybe the moisture has a more pronounced effect on the higher velocity pitches? I am referring to grip.

[Kimmi]

The guys we risk losing are 1 or possibly two from these out of options pitchers: Abad, Hembree & Elias.

 

I'd rather put Barnes or Ross in AAA, if we really felt we needed to keep all three of them. Even Kelly has an option left and might be a better choice than ERod.

 

Kimbrel & Thornburg are locks, if healthy.

 

Kelly & Ross are probably the next tier with Barnes close behind.

 

Even assuming those 5 are in, we could probably have Pom in the pen, pick one of those three for the 7th slot and then get creative with the DL on the others.

 

This is assuming everyone is healthy, which is not likely.

 

If we have to trade Abad and/or Elias, I'm not going to lose any sleep.

 

As I said in my previous post, trading Buchholz probably gets rid of enough of the starter logjam so that we don't have to worry about it.

 

I just take exception with the posts that state that it's a stupid idea or that it would never happen.

 

It is far from a stupid idea and it happens all the time.

 

No, you're not going to send someone like Sale down just because he has options. But someone who is slated to be the #4 or #5 when Pomeranz or Wright could do just as good a job, you absolutely consider it. Even if it only means saving a potentially very good pen arm.

[Kimmi]

The game where teams hold players back for a variety of reasons all the time? Just a guess.

 

The whole "best players make the team" does work for Little League. But - and this is not condoning it, but a fact of MLB - contracts and control rule the Show.

 

The Sox chose not to demote but Rodriguez, but if they did do it (and they still might depending how the off-season plays out) it would be to keep control of as many players as possible. This kind of thing happens all the time with all 30 teams.

 

It was the reason for the overblown Tommy LaStella Retirement Threat last season. (Maybe that wasn't as big of a deal in Boston as it was here in Chicago. If so, apologies for the hopefully not obscure reference.)

 

Thank you for this post, Sir Notin.

[Kimmi]

I don't know why some are acting like this is such a black-and-white decision. Assuming everyone is healthy and looks strong in camp, would starting Wright and Pomeranz (both All-Stars in 2016) over Rodriguez out of the gate really be so indefensible?

 

I agree. This is nothing against ERod, who I think will end up being a very good pitcher. And I'm not saying we should keep him down all season. Having the roster flexibility to open the season gives the team some time to assess how things are playing out in terms of who is effective in the pen and so forth. It makes a ton of sense to me.

[Kimmi]

I think Eduardo is one of our best 5 starters as well, both now and going forward...I just don't think he's separated himself enough from the other two guys at this point that it's ridiculous to even talk about.

 

(Reposting because the mobile version of this site keeps deleting my post when I go to edit it..? Sorry.)

 

LOL I started reading this post and was wondering how the heck Cycles quoted it before you even posted it. Thank goodness you explained yourself. These are the types of things that keep me awake at night.

[Kimmi]

Was he on an innings limit last year?

 

I don't think he was, nor will he be on one this year, but keep in mind that he is pitching in the WBC. He will be at full throttle during the time that he's usually still 'warming up'. I don't know what effect that will have on him over the course of the season, but I do think that it's another consideration.

[Kimmi]

I agree. I get the feeling that sometimes people might confuse him with Felix Doubront.

 

If he has a solid spring and gets demoted to Pawtucket, this kid is going to be irate. These things always seem to work themselves out anyway, but I can't see them demoting him unless it's warranted.

 

The idea of having ERod start in AAA has nothing to do with not liking his talent. To date, he has not proven himself to be so much better than Pomeranz or Wright that the team has to start him.

 

Maybe he will separate himself from the other two enough that the decision becomes a foregone conclusion. He is pitching very well in winter ball right now.

[Kimmi]

Wright starting the year in the pen seems like the most logical scenario.

 

I agree. If I had to venture a guess, that would be it.

[Eddy Ballgame]

The idea of having ERod start in AAA has nothing to do with not liking his talent. To date, he has not proven himself to be so much better than Pomeranz or Wright that the team has to start him.

 

Maybe he will separate himself from the other two enough that the decision becomes a foregone conclusion. He is pitching very well in winter ball right now.

 

Dombrowski already said that he would be the 4th starter, so if he has a good spring, he's not heading to Pawtucket to start the season. Now go make me some bacon & eggs, Kimmi.

[Kimmi]

Dombrowski already said that he would be the 4th starter, so if he has a good spring, he's not heading to Pawtucket to start the season. Now go make me some bacon & eggs, Kimmi.

 

What the heck kind of comment is that?

 

That's fine if Dombrowski said that ERod would be the 4th starter. I have never said that ERod would be sent to AAA. No matter how much some of you are against that idea, though, it is a very valid consideration.

[Eddy Ballgame]

What the heck kind of comment is that?

 

That's fine if Dombrowski said that ERod would be the 4th starter. I have never said that ERod would be sent to AAA. No matter how much some of you are against that idea, though, it is a very valid consideration.

 

A bad joke and a rip off of Cedric Maxwell. Just kidding!