A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[moonslav59]

We have him for another six freaking years.....he's a keeper. Do not trade Beni.

 

I don't want to trade Beni either. However, I'm open to listen to any offer.

 

I'd also avoid Cespedes.

[moonslav59]

Could anybody see this as a realistic scenario, assuming Swihart is healthy day one?

 

1) Swihart learns to play some 1B this spring.

 

2) At some point in 2017, we go with 3 catchers, but Sihart is more of a utility player.

 

3) Swihart plays 60-80% of the games, and his games are divided like this: 40% Catcher, 30% DH, 20% LF and 20% 1B

 

4) That means Swi might catch 40-60 games but might play late inning catcher as the other catcher is PH for. (We could even PH for our 1 & 2 catchers twice in one game)

 

5) With Swihart as a utility player than can play LF, Young on the roster and 3 OF'er who can play CF, the need for a 5th OF'er is not there.

 

6) This leaves 3 slots open at 3B and 2 utility spots for Shaw, Pablo, Holt and Hernandez.

 

Of course, parking Vaz in AAA to get more playing time makes sense too, but if we can find Swihart playing time at 1B, LF and DH, maybe we can still get Vaz enough reps to make staying at the ML level worthwhile. Of course, much of this depends on how Leon is looking.

 

[Eddy Ballgame]

Could anybody see this as a realistic scenario, assuming Swihart is healthy day one?

 

1) Swihart learns to play some 1B this spring.

 

2) At some point in 2017, we go with 3 catchers, but Sihart is more of a utility player.

 

3) Swihart plays 60-80% of the games, and his games are divided like this: 40% Catcher, 30% DH, 20% LF and 20% 1B

 

4) That means Swi might catch 40-60 games but might play late inning catcher as the other catcher is PH for. (We could even PH for our 1 & 2 catchers twice in one game)

 

5) With Swihart as a utility player than can play LF, Young on the roster and 3 OF'er who can play CF, the need for a 5th OF'er is not there.

 

6) This leaves 3 slots open at 3B and 2 utility spots for Shaw, Pablo, Holt and Hernandez.

 

Of course, parking Vaz in AAA to get more playing time makes sense too, but if we can find Swihart playing time at 1B, LF and DH, maybe we can still get Vaz enough reps to make staying at the ML level worthwhile. Of course, much of this depends on how Leon is looking.

 

 

This is about as realistic as that unicorn I hung out with during one crazy night in college. There is no way that he's going to DH, there's no way he's playing over 30 games in left as long as Bentintendi & Young are both healthy and and I'd love to know how he would catch 40% of the games as one of 3 catchers on the roster. I'm not sure where the 1st base thing is coming from, but I don't see it at all at this point.

 

Swihart missed a lot of time this year. He needs to play every day and I'm not sure why your trying to turn a top young catching prospect into some strange super sub.

[S5Dewey]

I don't see this whole thing being a problem. IMO either Swihart or Vazquez will be included as a part of a trade by March.

[jacksonianmarch]

Swihart will get every chance to win your starting C job out of ST. Leon was a flash in the pan and Vasquez cannot hit his way out of a paper bag. Thing is, Swihart might be better served to spend a bit more time in AAA, but in the end, his offensive upside at a premium position may be a good thing

[Wade Boggs]

Swihart will get every chance to win your starting C job out of ST. Leon was a flash in the pan and Vasquez cannot hit his way out of a paper bag. Thing is, Swihart might be better served to spend a bit more time in AAA, but in the end, his offensive upside at a premium position may be a good thing

 

If Vazquez can prove he's a 100% healthy after his surgery( Wieters) he will make the team on his defense alone. I would shop Leon and go with Vazquez / Swihart duel. If your thinking big ,Ramos is out there. But it would cost them Brian McCann money. 5/85-90M. I agree with you I would not go with Leon as the #1

[Wade Boggs]

I don't want to trade Beni either. However, I'm open to listen to any offer.

 

I'd also avoid Cespedes.

 

 

Agree. The talk around here was Cespedes putting in the work .Was demanding to play RF. A royal pain. If that's the case I would overpay for EE.

 

Not interested.

[moonslav59]

I'd love to know how he would catch 40% of the games as one of 3 catchers on the roster.

 

Here's the rub with our catcher situation: Vazquez and Leon are plus defenders but have serious offensive concerns. Swihart is the worst defender of the three but is probably going to be a steady bat- perhaps a nice plus.

 

If Leon starts 3 of 5 games and Vaz and Swihart one each, that's 20% for Swihart. Now, we pinch hit for Leon or Vaz (maybe in the 4th or 5th inning) and Swihart plays the rest of the game as catcher. Or, we PH for Leon, put in Vaz, and then later PH Swihart for Vaz and he finishes the game catching. These instances make up the other 20% of the innings and brings Swi to about 40%. If Leon sucks at the plate, maybe Swihart starts 2 of 5 games and gets his 40% that way. Maybe it's a combination of both.

 

I agree, he may not get 30% in LF, but you are assuming no OF injuries. Last year Young and Beni lost some time. When Betts and JBj rest, Beni will likely play CF. If you rest Betts vs RHPs (as we should), then Young should not play LF- Swihart could.

 

If Swihart didn't get hurt last year, he may have played 30% there. We tried to get Beltran to play LF at the deadline. LF is not as sure a bet as many think it is.

 

Swihart may also be given some reps at 1B or 3B or both. My point is there are plenty of ways he can get PAs other than at DH, but I do think he'll get some there, unless we sign a big bat.

 

 

[moonslav59]

I don't see this whole thing being a problem. IMO either Swihart or Vazquez will be included as a part of a trade by March.

 

Maybe Leon gets traded as his stock is high.

[oldtimer]

I'd love to know how he would catch 40% of the games as one of 3 catchers on the roster.

 

Here's the rub with our catcher situation: Vazquez and Leon are plus defenders but have serious offensive concerns. Swihart is the worst defender of the three but is probably going to be a steady bat- perhaps a nice plus.

 

If Leon starts 3 of 5 games and Vaz and Swihart one each, that's 20% for Swihart. Now, we pinch hit for Leon or Vaz (maybe in the 4th or 5th inning) and Swihart plays the rest of the game as catcher. Or, we PH for Leon, put in Vaz, and then later PH Swihart for Vaz and he finishes the game catching. These instances make up the other 20% of the innings and brings Swi to about 40%. If Leon sucks at the plate, maybe Swihart starts 2 of 5 games and gets his 40% that way. Maybe it's a combination of both.

 

I agree, he may not get 30% in LF, but you are assuming no OF injuries. Last year Young and Beni lost some time. When Betts and JBj rest, Beni will likely play CF. If you rest Betts vs RHPs (as we should), then Young should not play LF- Swihart could.

 

If Swihart didn't get hurt last year, he may have played 30% there. We tried to get Beltran to play LF at the deadline. LF is not as sure a bet as many think it is.

 

Swihart may also be given some reps at 1B or 3B or both. My point is there are plenty of ways he can get PAs other than at DH, but I do think he'll get some there, unless we sign a big bat.

 

 

 

At least for now, we have no outfield need for Swihart unless it is pure utility. A trade might change that but he is a more likely trade candidate than the others. Swihart hasn't shown great power at bat so probably would not fit the 1st base slot as well as Hanley. There is a real possibility at catcher as neither Leon nor Vazquez is likely to hit well. I would trade Leon of the two as he has a higher trade value and his weight is really too high to expect him to hold up well during the season again next year. If we can get buy with Swihart and Vazquez, then our needs should be focused on third and DH as well ass pitching.

 

I have little faith in Sandoval. True he has lost weight, but he is quoted as seeing no problem with his performance the last period with the Sox. No contrition there and a likelihood of putting the weight back on. Shaw hasn't had any sustained period of performance at the plate. We either need to get a FA third basement or develop one of three young candidates and have him in the lineup by June or July next season. DH is either by committee or we really go out and spend big but the risk is also big.

 

We have a big hole to fill with Ortiz gone and we need to improve in areas where we showed weakness last year. It's in DD's hands and things will need to start happening at the conclusion of the world series.

[Dojji]

Benintendi is not the sure thing fans seem to want to believe he is. Sophomore slumps are a thing. I don't think we can just blanket assume that we don't have a problem in left field. Rather than acquiring a bat just because there's a modest chance your rookie isn't up to the task, having a guy like Swihart who can sub in if needed is no bad thing.

[Bellhorn04]

Benintendi is not the sure thing fans seem to want to believe he is. Sophomore slumps are a thing. I don't think we can just blanket assume that we don't have a problem in left field. Rather than acquiring a bat just because there's a modest chance your rookie isn't up to the task, having a guy like Swihart who can sub in if needed is no bad thing.

 

But we already have Young for left.

 

I like the idea of returning Swihart to catcher.

[Spudboy]

But we already have Young for left.

 

I like the idea of returning Swihart to catcher.

 

Me too. People around here have tainted Swihart's value over time. "He sucks defensively". He has no power".

 

Lol. He played decent defense in 2014 when he was called-up prematurely. Granted his blocking skills were lacking but overall he did well enough to be the guy. And he made progress with his bat. He finished strong after getting off to a slow start.

 

People have a memory of convenience. And people will believe what they hear and read if they see it enough.

 

Assuming Swihart makes a full and unimpeded recovery from his broken foot and operation, he will be one of the best young players on the field given the chance.

 

I hope that this chance comes with the Sox.

[moonslav59]

At least for now, we have no outfield need for Swihart unless it is pure utility.

 

On the surface this appears to be correct. We have 3 OF'ers that can play plus CF defense. That provides us with enormous flexibility and CF depth, however we have no ML ready OF'er depth on the farm.We have Young, yes, but he is not really a good option vs RHPs. He also missed some time last year, as did Beni and Holt. My point is, I don't think Young and Holt make a great long term option in LF, if someone gets hurt. I still view Swihart as our top LF sub vs RHPs (which is the majority split).

 

 

A trade might change that but he is a more likely trade candidate than the others.

 

Agreed. He's been in almost all of my trade suggestions.

 

 

Swihart hasn't shown great power at bat so probably would not fit the 1st base slot as well as Hanley. There is a real possibility at catcher as neither Leon nor Vazquez is likely to hit well. I would trade Leon of the two as he has a higher trade value and his weight is really too high to expect him to hold up well during the season again next year. If we can get buy with Swihart and Vazquez, then our needs should be focused on third and DH as well as pitching.

 

I don't think weight is a major issue with Leon, but I do think trading him while his stock is highest may be an option. I don't think that happens, unless Sox management is comfortable with Swihart's defense as a catcher. They yanked him so quickly last year.

 

 

I have little faith in Sandoval. True he has lost weight, but he is quoted as seeing no problem with his performance the last period with the Sox. No contrition there and a likelihood of putting the weight back on.

 

I'm not confident in Pablo, but there is a hope he can help somewhere.

 

 

Shaw hasn't had any sustained period of performance at the plate.

 

Sure he has. His AAA .715 OPS was over an extended time. His less than impressive AA numbers were also over an extended playing time. If you put the end of 2015 with the beginning of 2016, that is also an extended playing time. I still see some (little) hope he can end up over .750 in 2017.

 

 

We either need to get a FA third basement or develop one of three young candidates and have him in the lineup by June or July next season.

 

Moncada is our best hope at 3B, but he may not be ready by opening day.

 

 

DH is either by committee or we really go out and spend big but the risk is also big.

 

We have a big hole to fill with Ortiz gone and we need to improve in areas where we showed weakness last year. It's in DD's hands and things will need to start happening at the conclusion of the world series.

 

I can see us going the route of nothing major: pick up a couple decent pen arms and a vet corner IF'er that bats lefty and then look to the trade deadline to fill any holes realized. Since only Young will be a FA after 2017, and Moncada, Devers and Travis so close to ML ready, I don't see us obtaining a big bat with a long term contract, unless we trade a big prospect or a starter at a position where one of the big prospects can play.

[moonslav59]

Benintendi is not the sure thing fans seem to want to believe he is. Sophomore slumps are a thing. I don't think we can just blanket assume that we don't have a problem in left field. Rather than acquiring a bat just because there's a modest chance your rookie isn't up to the task, having a guy like Swihart who can sub in if needed is no bad thing.

 

A Beni-Young platoon is possible, if Beni struggles. If Beni does struggle, it will likely be vs LHP'ers. However, using Young in LF vs lefties would then open a slot at DH vs lefties.

[moonslav59]

Me too. People around here have tainted Swihart's value over time. "He sucks defensively". He has no power".

 

Lol. He played decent defense in 2014 when he was called-up prematurely. Granted his blocking skills were lacking but overall he did well enough to be the guy. And he made progress with his bat. He finished strong after getting off to a slow start.

 

People have a memory of convenience. And people will believe what they hear and read if they see it enough.

 

Assuming Swihart makes a full and unimpeded recovery from his broken foot and operation, he will be one of the best young players on the field given the chance.

 

I hope that this chance comes with the Sox.

 

The fact that we put Swihart in LF last year speaks volumes of Sox management's belief that Swihart can and will hit. LF is not position for weak hitters.

 

Yanking Swihart from the catcher position so quickly this spring does seem to show that Sox management doubts his defensive skills as a catcher. Going with Hanigan and then Leon over Swihart amplified that view. I'm not saying Swihart can't improve on defense, but as of this season, I don't think he had the defensive value to be viewed as a solid FT catcher option.

 

[Nick]

The fact that we put Swihart in LF last year speaks volumes of Sox management's belief that Swihart can and will hit. LF is not position for weak hitters.

 

Yanking Swihart from the catcher position so quickly this spring does seem to show that Sox management doubts his defensive skills as a catcher. Going with Hanigan and then Leon over Swihart amplified that view. I'm not saying Swihart can't improve on defense, but as of this season, I don't think he had the defensive value to be viewed as a solid FT catcher option.

 

 

I rather have him learn to play 1B and put Hanley at DH. I think Swihart and Beni are similar players. He will be a super 2 arbitration player with 5 more years of team control. I'd keep him too.

 

We need to save money whenever we can. You do that by playing potential big bats, big league players such as Beni, Moncada and Swihart.

[Dojji]

The use of Leon in particular indicated to me that the Sox are not confortable with Swihart's proficiency at defense at this time.

[Nick]

I rather have him learn to play 1B and put Hanley at DH. I think Swihart and Beni are similar players. He will be a super 2 arbitration player with 5 more years of team control. I'd keep him too.

 

We need to save money whenever we can. You do that by playing potential big bats, big league players such as Beni, Moncada and Swihart.

 

I see Beni making a big leap in 2017 and join Xander, JBJ and Betts as next generation of stars for Red Sox. Swihart and Moncada can get their feet wet in 2017 and then join the foursome in 2018. That would push up the young talent group to 6 with Hanley, Pedey and a catcher. How exciting is that? Next up, Devers.

 

Wow....I'm replying to my own post......I'm having a senior moment?

Edited October 29, 2016 by Nick

[moonslav59]

The use of Leon in particular indicated to me that the Sox are not confortable with Swihart's proficiency at defense at this time.

 

Hanigan's OPS was an incredibly low .468, yet he played 35 games at catcher (over 20%), so I think him playing over Swihart is a more glaring example than Leon. However, when we started playing Leon, his reputation was very low on offense. Once he started hitting, there was little choice but to not play anyone else.Your point is well-taken.

 

The other clue was that we brought Vazquez up very quickly, perhaps before we wanted to and before he was ready.

[Kimmi]

The other clue was that we brought Vazquez up very quickly, perhaps before we wanted to and before he was ready.

 

IMO, the FO screwed the pooch on that one. They not only messed up Swihart's progress and development as a catcher by taking him out of the position, they messed up Vazquez' progress by rushing him back. Not saying that either one is permanently messed up, but the FO's rash decisions have somewhat delayed the progress of both young catchers.

 

The FO needs to lose the 'sense of urgency' mentality that they had last season. Patience is a good thing.

[Spudboy]

So when Leon started to rake he should have been sat down in favor of one of the rookies you all love so much.

 

Sound reasoning.

[moonslav59]

So when Leon started to rake he should have been sat down in favor of one of the rookies you all love so much.

 

Sound reasoning.

 

Who said that?

[harmony]

The fact that we put Swihart in LF last year speaks volumes of Sox management's belief that Swihart can and will hit. LF is not position for weak hitters.

 

Yanking Swihart from the catcher position so quickly this spring does seem to show that Sox management doubts his defensive skills as a catcher. Going with Hanigan and then Leon over Swihart amplified that view. I'm not saying Swihart can't improve on defense, but as of this season, I don't think he had the defensive value to be viewed as a solid FT catcher option.

 

Blake Swihart, who turns 25 years old on Opening Day 2017, may well hit well enough for a catcher but I question whether he'll hit well enough to be an everyday position player elsewhere.

 

Compare these numbers for these Red Sox players with limited MLB experience: Swihart, Travis Shaw, Rusney Castillo, Bryce Brentz and Christian Vazquez:

 

BS DOB 4-3-92, 103 G, 90 OPS+, 92 wRC+

TS DOB 4-16-90, 210 G, 96 OPS+, 97 wRC+

RC DOB 7-9-87, 99 G, 82 OPS+, 82 wRC+

BB DOB 12-30-88, 34 G, 84 OPS+, 83 wRC+

CV DOB 8-21-90, 112 G, 64 OPS+, 61 wRC+

 

After posting strong numbers at High A and Double A in 2012 and 2013, Swihart posted a wRC+ of 77 in 18 games at Triple A in 2014, a wRC+ of 111 in 20 games at Triple A in 2015 and a wRC+ of 91 in 29 games at Triple A in 2016. Contrast those numbers with the wRC+ of 172, 126, 98 and 118 posted by Ryan Lavarnway in more at-bats over four seasons in Pawtucket.

 

Swihart's career may depend on the development of his defensive skills behind the plate.

[moonslav59]

IMO, the FO screwed the pooch on that one. They not only messed up Swihart's progress and development as a catcher by taking him out of the position, they messed up Vazquez' progress by rushing him back. Not saying that either one is permanently messed up, but the FO's rash decisions have somewhat delayed the progress of both young catchers.

 

The FO needs to lose the 'sense of urgency' mentality that they had last season. Patience is a good thing.

 

Just because Vazquez did poorly when he was brought up doesn't mean he was rushed. He may have been, but it's hard to know for sure.

 

In terms of development of our young catchers I think they've had plenty of time to develop. Vazquez started in the Sox system at age 17. He reached single A at age 18, played 80 games at Salem at age 19 and 105 at age 20. At age 21 he was promoted to AA playing 101 games between A & AA. He then played 10 more games in the fall league and 9 in the winter league that year making it 120 games total in 2012! In 2013, at age 22, he played in 97 games between AA and AAA plus 33 games in the winter league for 130 games total. By the time Vaz got his look at the ML level he was 23. He played 66 games at AAA and then 55 with Boston. He played another 33 in winter ball for 144 total games. So far, it looked like a very good path and progress. His injury in 2015 stopped any further growth for a year, and maybe they did rush him in 2016, but I don't think his tough stretch with Boston this year set him back. If he's not ready for 2017, it's on him.

 

Swihart's path started at age 19, but he really began playing significantly at age 20 (92 games at single A). He played 103 games at age 21 with Salem (A+). He rose quickly at age 22 (92 games at AA & 18 at AAA. He was clearly rushed into the bigs at age 23, when Vaz got hurt. He played 20 games at AAA and 84 with Boston. As it turned out, he did very well with a .712 OPS in his first 309 PAs in MLB. His defense was not great, and there was concern about how he worked with pitchers, but he didn't look like an embarrassment. The rapid demotion to start 2016 was a bit surprising, and the move to LF was rather shocking, but I have to believe that had to do as much with their low view of his defensive abilities at catcher than the big need in LF after Holt and Young's injuries. Swihart's injury this year certainly slowed his growth, but I'm not sure I disagree with management's view that he does not deserve to be the FT catcher.

 

Leon was never supposed to be our FT starter. His slump to end the season might mean he does not have the starter role locked up for 2017. I'd give all three an equal chance at winning the job, and we'll see what happens. I wouldn't be surprised if any one of the three is traded as the need for catching is super high right now.

[raider_35_24]

here's one for you....https://www.yahoo.com/news/jose-bautista-interested-signing-red-044517151.html

[Kimmi]

Just because Vazquez did poorly when he was brought up doesn't mean he was rushed. He may have been, but it's hard to know for sure.

 

In terms of development of our young catchers I think they've had plenty of time to develop. Vazquez started in the Sox system at age 17. He reached single A at age 18, played 80 games at Salem at age 19 and 105 at age 20. At age 21 he was promoted to AA playing 101 games between A & AA. He then played 10 more games in the fall league and 9 in the winter league that year making it 120 games total in 2012! In 2013, at age 22, he played in 97 games between AA and AAA plus 33 games in the winter league for 130 games total. By the time Vaz got his look at the ML level he was 23. He played 66 games at AAA and then 55 with Boston. He played another 33 in winter ball for 144 total games. So far, it looked like a very good path and progress. His injury in 2015 stopped any further growth for a year, and maybe they did rush him in 2016, but I don't think his tough stretch with Boston this year set him back. If he's not ready for 2017, it's on him.

 

Swihart's path started at age 19, but he really began playing significantly at age 20 (92 games at single A). He played 103 games at age 21 with Salem (A+). He rose quickly at age 22 (92 games at AA & 18 at AAA. He was clearly rushed into the bigs at age 23, when Vaz got hurt. He played 20 games at AAA and 84 with Boston. As it turned out, he did very well with a .712 OPS in his first 309 PAs in MLB. His defense was not great, and there was concern about how he worked with pitchers, but he didn't look like an embarrassment. The rapid demotion to start 2016 was a bit surprising, and the move to LF was rather shocking, but I have to believe that had to do as much with their low view of his defensive abilities at catcher than the big need in LF after Holt and Young's injuries. Swihart's injury this year certainly slowed his growth, but I'm not sure I disagree with management's view that he does not deserve to be the FT catcher.

 

Leon was never supposed to be our FT starter. His slump to end the season might mean he does not have the starter role locked up for 2017. I'd give all three an equal chance at winning the job, and we'll see what happens. I wouldn't be surprised if any one of the three is traded as the need for catching is super high right now.

 

Of course it's only my opinion, but I believe that Vazquez was rushed back due to the sense of urgency that management admitted to having.

 

Vazquez may have had plenty of time to develop. He did not have enough time to rehab after his injury. Calling him back too soon ended up hurting his progress in that regard.

 

Swihart did an admirable job in 2015 when he was called up before he was ready. That said, if memory serves me right, he was the worst defensive catcher that season. He could have benefited from more reps at catcher this past year once he was sent back down in lieu of Vazquez.

 

Rather than moving him to left field, which was another 'sense of urgency' move, they should have let him focus on honing his catching skills.

 

All my opinion, of course, but I think the FO acted rashly in many instances last season. I also thought they called up both Beni and Moncada too quickly. They were right with Beni, but not so with Moncada.

[Emp9]

Last I read on Swihart was that the RS Organization and FO still view him as a catcher. They wanted to get him in the line-up and continue his development as a hitter vs major league pitching and happened to be the best option for LF at the time. A time when they were trying to win the East. It was not a statement on him continuing or not as a catcher. With Beni in LF now, I think Swihart does indeed focus more on catching.

[Dojji]

They're gonna say they believe3 in him as a catcher whether they do or not. Can't hurt that trade value. Still says everything you need to know that they went the path they did with Leon and Hanigan before going to Swhiart as the backstop again.

[Kimmi]

Last I read on Swihart was that the RS Organization and FO still view him as a catcher. They wanted to get him in the line-up and continue his development as a hitter vs major league pitching and happened to be the best option for LF at the time. A time when they were trying to win the East. It was not a statement on him continuing or not as a catcher. With Beni in LF now, I think Swihart does indeed focus more on catching.

 

That makes sense, but if they still view him as a catcher, they took away one year of development that he really could have benefited from.