Postseason Happenings 2016

[Kimmi]

Here are some good reads on the topic, for anyone so inclined to read them. The numbers just don't support the notion that home field advantage is a big deal.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/home-field-advantage-does-not-exist-in-the-postseason/

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/plus/does-home-field-matter-in-the-playoffs/

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/there-is-no-special-higher-stakes-home-field-advantage/

[a700hitter]

A reading list from the teacher.

[Kimmi]

A reading list from the teacher.

 

My job is to educate.

 

But alas, I cannot educate those who choose not to be educated.

[a700hitter]

My job is to indoctrinate [educate].

 

But alas, I cannot indoctrinate [educate] those who choose not to be indoctrinate [educated].

I think this may be more accurate.

[sk7326]

I don't disagree with you really. What I would say is that all things being equal - 2 teams - one that has won 65% of its' games at home playing against a team that has won roughly let's say 50% of its' game on the road. If the game is held on the home field of the team that has won 65% of its' games at home, logic supported by statistics would tell anyone that the home team has the advantage. Exceptions to any situation of course can be found.

 

The most likely outcome if that were to happen would be to split the first two games ...

[Bellhorn04]

I don't disagree with you really. What I would say is that all things being equal - 2 teams - one that has won 65% of its' games at home playing against a team that has won roughly let's say 50% of its' game on the road. If the game is held on the home field of the team that has won 65% of its' games at home, logic supported by statistics would tell anyone that the home team has the advantage. Exceptions to any situation of course can be found.

 

In this case, the exceptions are vast.

[cp176]

In this case, the exceptions are vast.

 

That is what they are though I guess - exceptions. They are great stories but exceptions none the less.

[a700hitter]

In this case, the exceptions are vast.

When the advantage is 54% of course the exceptions will be vast. They are more than exceptions -- they amount to 46% of the sample. Seriously.

[cp176]

The most likely outcome if that were to happen would be to split the first two games ...

 

A coin flip then I guess?

[Bellhorn04]

When the advantage is 54% of course the exceptions will be vast. They are more than exceptions -- they amount to 46% of the sample. Seriously.

 

You have been totally fixated on 54-46 from the get-go and have no interest in any other information on the subject. We get it.

[Bellhorn04]

Here's the article that blows up the whole 54-46 thing.

 

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=19&cad=rja&uact=8&sqi=2&ved=0ahUKEwiw3pOF8NzPAhVDcT4KHcl4CNUQFgiAATAS&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wsj.com%2Farticles%2Fdispelling-the-myth-of-home-field-advantage-in-baseball-1443825563&usg=AFQjCNEQxMUoqIM6fgDxCuvfc-xYJUKTHg&sig2=7JPYe-pgS9idxru5ppjD5w&bvm=bv.135974163,d.dmo

[Kimmi]

That is what they are though I guess - exceptions. They are great stories but exceptions none the less.

 

No, they cannot be considered 'exceptions'.

 

What you are providing is anecdotal evidence to support your opinion, which is not really evidence at all. Statistically, there is very little advantage to having the home field, even after considering the home crowd noise, the home cooking, players being built for the park, etc.

[Kimmi]

When the advantage is 54% of course the exceptions will be vast. They are more than exceptions -- they amount to 46% of the sample. Seriously.

 

In the playoffs, that advantage becomes 51.25%, which statistically speaking, is negligible.

[Kimmi]

Here's the article that blows up the whole 54-46 thing.

 

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=19&cad=rja&uact=8&sqi=2&ved=0ahUKEwiw3pOF8NzPAhVDcT4KHcl4CNUQFgiAATAS&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wsj.com%2Farticles%2Fdispelling-the-myth-of-home-field-advantage-in-baseball-1443825563&usg=AFQjCNEQxMUoqIM6fgDxCuvfc-xYJUKTHg&sig2=7JPYe-pgS9idxru5ppjD5w&bvm=bv.135974163,d.dmo

 

Another fine article. Thank you for posting it.

[a700hitter]

In the playoffs, that advantage becomes 51.25%, which statistically speaking, is negligible.

But still an advantage no matter how you try to prove otherwise.

[a700hitter]

Here's the article that blows up the whole 54-46 thing.

 

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=19&cad=rja&uact=8&sqi=2&ved=0ahUKEwiw3pOF8NzPAhVDcT4KHcl4CNUQFgiAATAS&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wsj.com%2Farticles%2Fdispelling-the-myth-of-home-field-advantage-in-baseball-1443825563&usg=AFQjCNEQxMUoqIM6fgDxCuvfc-xYJUKTHg&sig2=7JPYe-pgS9idxru5ppjD5w&bvm=bv.135974163,d.dmo

It doesn't at all conclude that there is no HFA. From the article:

 

Having home-field advantage in the baseball playoffs isn’t nearly as important as conventional wisdom would suggest.

[Bellhorn04]

It doesn't at all conclude that there is no HFA.

 

I agree.

[Spudboy]

Oddly, I listened to the WEEI pukes discussing HFA in absolutes this morning. I don't make a habit of listening to these guys but this morning I did for about ten minutes. They railed about all the things Farrell could have done to get HFA and said that Cleveland could have been forced into spending their front line starters if the Sox had played to secure HFA.

 

Lol. I was tempted to call in and enlighten them about HFA as no one was talking about the 54/46 or 51.5% advantages.

[a700hitter]

Oddly, I listened to the WEEI pukes discussing HFA in absolutes this morning. I don't make a habit of listening to these guys but this morning I did for about ten minutes. They railed about all the things Farrell could have done to get HFA and said that Cleveland could have been forced into spending their front line starters if the Sox had played to secure HFA.

 

Lol. I was tempted to call in and enlighten them about HFA as no one was talking about the 54/46 or 51.5% advantages.

You could tell them about the articles that come to those conclusions that HFA is not all that it is cracked up to be, but it is still an advantage. LOL!

[Spudboy]

You could tell them about the articles that come to those conclusions that HFA is not all that it is cracked up to be, but it is still an advantage. LOL!

 

I probably would have started my conversation there. But my point would have been that the idea that HFA is a huge advantage ( held by most common fans ) may not be so.

 

I was just a little alarmed that these so called pros did not even have any facts to support their ideas.

 

We can scoff at the idea of HFA not being so important on Talksox, but at least we are discussing the topic from more than one side.

 

It's easy to see how "old think" is perpetuated when the media and so called experts never discuss topics with facts.

[Kimmi]

But still an advantage no matter how you try to prove otherwise.

 

51.25 % statistically speaking really is not an advantage.

 

That said, I and everyone else have said many times that there is an advantage. My argument has always been that it is not nearly as big an advantage that most people here seem to think it is, and that there are more important things for Farrell to concern himself with than trying to secure HFA.

[cp176]

No, they cannot be considered 'exceptions'.

 

What you are providing is anecdotal evidence to support your opinion, which is not really evidence at all. Statistically, there is very little advantage to having the home field, even after considering the home crowd noise, the home cooking, players being built for the park, etc.

 

it just kind of feels like you think that I think there is huge advantage to owning the home field. I do not nor have I ever said that I did. There is an advantage in most cases. You say negligible. Great! I would take any advantage that I could get. i'm not sure that it would have made any difference at all. That is not the point. I favor looking for any advantage.

Edited October 15, 2016 by cp176

[Bellhorn04]

it just kind of feels like you think that I think there is huge advantage to owning the home field. I do not nor have I ever said that I did. There is an advantage in most cases. You say negligible. Great! I would take any advantage that I could get. i'm not sure that it would have made any difference at all. That is not the point. I favor looking for any advantage.

 

Sure. Personally I think Farrell is taking too much grief for not getting the HFA. Some people that are bashing him about that seem to forget that we weren't assured of any playoff spot at all heading into September, not even a Wild Card spot. Then we win 11 games in a row and the division, and instead of people being happy about that they grouse about losing HFA.

 

I really don't think it was Farrell's intention to lose 5 of the last 6 games. Kimbrel blew one against the Yanks. Pomeranz couldn't go and we had to start Owens. The last series against the Jays were all tight games. We lost 2 of 3 against a very good team that was going all out to get in the playoffs.

 

I'm not directing this at you personally. I'm just talking in general terms.

[Dojji]

I agree with Bellhorn. People are making a HUGE leap of logic when they assume that simply because Farrell did not GET HFA, that must somehow mean he didn't WANT HFA. The idea that he wanted HFA but was beaten to it by a combination of events and other teams playing better than we did, seems not to occur to them.

[Kimmi]

it just kind of feels like you think that I think there is huge advantage to owning the home field. I do not nor have I ever said that I did. There is an advantage in most cases. You say negligible. Great! I would take any advantage that I could get. i'm not sure that it would have made any difference at all. That is not the point. I favor looking for any advantage.

 

Of course you take home field advantage, all other things being equal. My point is that you don't play all out for home field advantage at the expense of other advantages. There are other things that are more important. That's all I'm trying to say.

[Kimmi]

Sure. Personally I think Farrell is taking too much grief for not getting the HFA. Some people that are bashing him about that seem to forget that we weren't assured of any playoff spot at all heading into September, not even a Wild Card spot. Then we win 11 games in a row and the division, and instead of people being happy about that they grouse about losing HFA.

 

I really don't think it was Farrell's intention to lose 5 of the last 6 games. Kimbrel blew one against the Yanks. Pomeranz couldn't go and we had to start Owens. The last series against the Jays were all tight games. We lost 2 of 3 against a very good team that was going all out to get in the playoffs.

 

I'm not directing this at you personally. I'm just talking in general terms.

 

Good post.

[cp176]

Sure. Personally I think Farrell is taking too much grief for not getting the HFA. Some people that are bashing him about that seem to forget that we weren't assured of any playoff spot at all heading into September, not even a Wild Card spot. Then we win 11 games in a row and the division, and instead of people being happy about that they grouse about losing HFA.

 

I really don't think it was Farrell's intention to lose 5 of the last 6 games. Kimbrel blew one against the Yanks. Pomeranz couldn't go and we had to start Owens. The last series against the Jays were all tight games. We lost 2 of 3 against a very good team that was going all out to get in the playoffs.

 

I'm not directing this at you personally. I'm just talking in general terms.

 

Who are these people that are bashing him for not getting the HFA? As is often the case I guess, I am missing something here. I think that most of us are pretty damn happy that we got to the playoffs. My contention is and will continue to be that in Cleveland's world, home field means quite a bit. I'm not sure that John Farrell could have done much more than he did.

[cp176]

Of course you take home field advantage, all other things being equal. My point is that you don't play all out for home field advantage at the expense of other advantages. There are other things that are more important. That's all I'm trying to say.

 

 

I must have arrived late to the party once again. Any of my comments have been directed at my personal feelings about what I feel the importance of HFA is. There are other things that are more important of course than going all out here for the sake of attaining the HFA. I might disagree with you about who needed to be rested and how much they needed to have but that is an entirely different discussion. I get your point. My point is simply that to me HFA is and will always be something that I think is quite important. That being said, i'm not sure that John Farrell is really in any way responsible for us not getting it. i really did miss the part about this discussion being about a criticism of Farrell.

[a700hitter]

51.25 % statistically speaking really is not an advantage.

 

That said, I and everyone else have said many times that there is an advantage. My argument has always been that it is not nearly as big an advantage that most people here seem to think it is, and that there are more important things for Farrell to concern himself with than trying to secure HFA.

i just said that it is an advantage, and not a good sign when you don't get it, because your opponent is probably the better team. Others keep trying to quantify it to be smaller and smaller to reduce the advantage to insignificance. I am not sure why, because no matter how the numbers are "teased out", it is still an advantage.

[a700hitter]

Who are these people that are bashing him for not getting the HFA? As is often the case I guess, I am missing something here. I think that most of us are pretty damn happy that we got to the playoffs. My contention is and will continue to be that in Cleveland's world, home field means quite a bit. I'm not sure that John Farrell could have done much more than he did.

I am not sure who is bashing Farrell for not getting HFA. I think he probably could have done a better job in that final week, but like you, I have not bashed the simpleton about this.