Tracking the July to August west Coast Trip

[sk7326]

Team started the trip in a dogfight for one of three playoff spots. That is how it's going to end. Now what stinks is all four of the losses come under the "games we wish we had back" category.

[bosoxmal]

Well, all that's expected and hoped for right now, i to tread water. If they come back to Fenway no more than 2 or 3 games back of Baltimore and/or Toronto, they ccan then look forwr to making that up in a very short time. The time to panic will come if they get swept in one ohe many upcoming series with the Orioles and Toronto.

 

Hope I can stay awake longer than I did last night. Conked out end of the ninth, and woke up right after Holt's winning hit. Then managed to crawl out bed about 10, and accompany a buddy to Publix. My advice: Try and call it quits after the big nine O. Not really worth it!

[illinoisredsox]

Those of you old enough may remember some of the 3-6, 2-8 type west coast trips that seemed to occur all too often and sank many seasons.

 

When the O's undertook a very similar trip a month ago, they went 4-5 and got swept in a 4 game set in Seattle. So 5-6 on the trip means they held serve, 6-5 and they picked up a game. There is something to be said for that. Making the postseason is going to come down to how they fare against the O's and Jays the rest of the way. They need to start figuring out a way to beat them more often; if they don't start doing that, it's not going to matter.

[Maxbialystock]

Sure you can! Just don't expect it to be upward movement.

 

I not only agree, but also point to the latest homestand when the Sox went 4-5. Lately the Sox are simply playing bad baseball.

[Spudboy]

Sure you can! Just don't expect it to be upward movement.

 

Yup. After posting that it did occur to me that I should have explained to some dolts here that the Sox could go backwards in the standings playing .500 ball.

 

Sorry for over estimating the intellect of our fellow members!

[Kimmi]

Those of you old enough may remember some of the 3-6, 2-8 type west coast trips that seemed to occur all too often and sank many seasons.

 

When the O's undertook a very similar trip a month ago, they went 4-5 and got swept in a 4 game set in Seattle. So 5-6 on the trip means they held serve, 6-5 and they picked up a game. There is something to be said for that. Making the postseason is going to come down to how they fare against the O's and Jays the rest of the way. They need to start figuring out a way to beat them more often; if they don't start doing that, it's not going to matter.

 

Playing on the road is almost always difficult. West coast trips are even harder, regardless of how good the opposing team is. Isn't the 'rule of thumb' that you want to play .500 on the road? As I said, if we go 6-5 on this trip, I will consider that a success. Going 5-6 would not be the end of the world. We do NOT want to get swept by the Dodgers.

[greenwell]

Yup. After posting that it did occur to me that I should have explained to some dolts here that the Sox could go backwards in the standings playing .500 ball.

 

Sorry for over estimating the intellect of our fellow members!

 

When they left on the road trip they were 2.5 games out, they are now 2 games out.

[bosoxmal]

Good point.

[moonslav59]

Team started the trip in a dogfight for one of three playoff spots. That is how it's going to end. Now what stinks is all four of the losses come under the "games we wish we had back" category.

 

Well, we also won a couple maybe we "could have lost".

[oldtimer]

Pitching has been good on the road trip, however, the team has had difficulty with the offense. An ace starting pitcher will not help much when there are so few runs being scored. No suggestions although I hope someone can energize the guys before we slip too far.

[d-money]

Pitching has been good on the road trip, however, the team has had difficulty with the offense. An ace starting pitcher will not help much when there are so few runs being scored. No suggestions although I hope someone can energize the guys before we slip too far.

 

Team's treading on water. The orioles and jays keep taking care of business.

[bosoxmal]

The Good News: The other guys all lost (are close to it)

 

The Bad News: We did too!

 

Price on for the last of the 11 games. I can't wait to see the day, JF figures it out, and plugs Betts someway in the order where he won't come up with no one on base all day. Hitting behind the pitcher! /sure good spot for your best hitter!

[devildavid]

The Good News: The other guys all lost (are close to it)

 

The Bad News: We did too!

 

Price on for the last of the 11 games. I can't wait to see the day, JF figures it out, and plugs Betts someway in the order where he won't come up with no one on base all day. Hitting behind the pitcher! /sure good spot for your best hitter!

 

I've been pushing for this on your Betts and Pedroia thread. Your idea makes a lot of sense to me. You were on to this before any of us.

[Kimmi]

All is not lost. If we win today, we still go home with a winning road trip.

 

Here is another game where we need our 'ace' to do what an ace does. Frankly, I'm more concerned with whether our offense can score any runs.

[devildavid]

All is not lost. If we win today, we still go home with a winning road trip.

 

Here is another game where we need our 'ace' to do what an ace does. Frankly, I'm more concerned with whether our offense can score any runs.

 

There is a big difference between this offense at home vs. on the road. It does not bode well that most of the rest of the season will be on the road. Offensive numbers will continue to go down.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split 2016

[Kimmi]

There is a big difference between this offense at home vs. on the road. It does not bode well that most of the rest of the season will be on the road. Offensive numbers will continue to go down.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split 2016

 

Our offense on the road is a concern, but our pitching has been better away from Fenway, so maybe our pitching can hold us up? I know, that sounds odd.

 

On the road, we have scored 4.8 runs/game versus 5.9 runs/game at home.

 

On the road, we have allowed 4.3 runs/game versus 4.8 runs/game at home.

 

Let me add that up until this west coast trip, our offense scored 5.2 runs/game on the road. That's still not as good as the home offense, but better than what we've seen on this current trip, in which we've scored just 3.3 runs/game.

 

Maybe the offense is not as big a concern on the road as it looks right now? I don't know, but hopefully it's a slump that goes away soon.

[oldtimer]

Our offense on the road is a concern, but our pitching has been better away from Fenway, so maybe our pitching can hold us up? I know, that sounds odd.

 

On the road, we have scored 4.8 runs/game versus 5.9 runs/game at home.

 

On the road, we have allowed 4.3 runs/game versus 4.8 runs/game at home.

 

Let me add that up until this west coast trip, our offense scored 5.2 runs/game on the road. That's still not as good as the home offense, but better than what we've seen on this current trip, in which we've scored just 3.3 runs/game.

 

Maybe the offense is not as big a concern on the road as it looks right now? I don't know, but hopefully it's a slump that goes away soon.

 

Is the offense in a funk?

 

If you look at batting averages of key players, they have been dropping now for some time. Perhaps they were too high and were not sustainable, but Ortiz and Bogaerts to name two have not looked as good recently, while Betts has maintained his pace. Key players off their game have a major impact on the offense. Can this be attributable to facing much better pitching or being unlucky with balls hit in play not finding holes?

 

There are 5 other possibilities that I see as causes:

 

1. Players sustain nagging injuries that don’t put them out of games but impact their level of play. Sore feet, being hit by pitches, pulled or stained muscles. There are many opportunities for these players to sustain these kinds of injuries. Not much can be done about this as all teams have to play through these sorts of injuries.

2. Near exhaustion with games daily and travel in any off days plus playing in the heat of the summer have to wear on even well conditioned athletes. JF does try to rest his players at times. The schedule is tough and that rest is at least somewhat beneficial.

3. It has to be a mental strain to remain positive and interested when playing daily, when away from family, when games get lost due to errors and miscalculations. I would guess there can be friction among the players and between players and coaches/managers. All that has to be a greater issue on the road. I know these guys are pros but even people working regular jobs get bored or sick and tired of things and need time to refresh. A positive point of view and toughness of some guys such as Ortiz and Pedey can help and JF can help. Is it happening?

4. The technology of the game has increased to where opposing coaches and technologists are continually looking for any weaknesses in a player’s offense. When they think they’ve found something they exploit it with pitching type and location and with defensive shifts. It is up to our players and coaches to look for and implement adjustments. All teams face this problem today and with young players it has to be even more of a problem learning to adjust.

5. Lineup displacements due to DL injuries lead to weakened lineups. Even when players get his hits, they wind up left on base as the weaker lineup has holes in it. Also having a threatening hitter coming up behind a player means he is likely to see better pitches in his at bat. JF has control of lineup decision making. Fans don’t have all the details that coaches do but putting your best available players on the field hitting in the right order and making adjustments during the game are in his purview. As fans we can second guess the decisions, but it is only through a full season of results we can get a fairly clear picture of the effectiveness of managerial decision making.

Let’s hope the return home and of players from the DL will help enough to get the offense rolling again.

[Kimmi]

Is the offense in a funk?

 

If you look at batting averages of key players, they have been dropping now for some time. Perhaps they were too high and were not sustainable, but Ortiz and Bogaerts to name two have not looked as good recently, while Betts has maintained his pace. Key players off their game have a major impact on the offense. Can this be attributable to facing much better pitching or being unlucky with balls hit in play not finding holes?

 

There are 5 other possibilities that I see as causes:

 

1. Players sustain nagging injuries that don’t put them out of games but impact their level of play. Sore feet, being hit by pitches, pulled or stained muscles. There are many opportunities for these players to sustain these kinds of injuries. Not much can be done about this as all teams have to play through these sorts of injuries.

2. Near exhaustion with games daily and travel in any off days plus playing in the heat of the summer have to wear on even well conditioned athletes. JF does try to rest his players at times. The schedule is tough and that rest is at least somewhat beneficial.

3. It has to be a mental strain to remain positive and interested when playing daily, when away from family, when games get lost due to errors and miscalculations. I would guess there can be friction among the players and between players and coaches/managers. All that has to be a greater issue on the road. I know these guys are pros but even people working regular jobs get bored or sick and tired of things and need time to refresh. A positive point of view and toughness of some guys such as Ortiz and Pedey can help and JF can help. Is it happening?

4. The technology of the game has increased to where opposing coaches and technologists are continually looking for any weaknesses in a player’s offense. When they think they’ve found something they exploit it with pitching type and location and with defensive shifts. It is up to our players and coaches to look for and implement adjustments. All teams face this problem today and with young players it has to be even more of a problem learning to adjust.

5. Lineup displacements due to DL injuries lead to weakened lineups. Even when players get his hits, they wind up left on base as the weaker lineup has holes in it. Also having a threatening hitter coming up behind a player means he is likely to see better pitches in his at bat. JF has control of lineup decision making. Fans don’t have all the details that coaches do but putting your best available players on the field hitting in the right order and making adjustments during the game are in his purview. As fans we can second guess the decisions, but it is only through a full season of results we can get a fairly clear picture of the effectiveness of managerial decision making.

Let’s hope the return home and of players from the DL will help enough to get the offense rolling again.

 

Yes, I believe the offense is in a funk. They aren't going to be as good as they were early in the season. That level of offense was unsustainable. But nor should they be as bad as they've been in the past couple of weeks.

 

I do not disagree with any of your 5 possibilities. I think each one of those things is contributing to the overall play of the team. That said, none of those things are new or unique to this team. Every team goes through those things every year. This is why depth is so important.

 

They have to find a way to fight through it, and I agree that guys like Ortiz and Pedroia need to show their leadership in helping the team do so.

[a700hitter]

Our offense on the road is a concern, but our pitching has been better away from Fenway, so maybe our pitching can hold us up? I know, that sounds odd.

 

On the road, we have scored 4.8 runs/game versus 5.9 runs/game at home.

 

On the road, we have allowed 4.3 runs/game versus 4.8 runs/game at home.

 

Let me add that up until this west coast trip, our offense scored 5.2 runs/game on the road. That's still not as good as the home offense, but better than what we've seen on this current trip, in which we've scored just 3.3 runs/game.

 

Maybe the offense is not as big a concern on the road as it looks right now? I don't know, but hopefully it's a slump that goes away soon.

I am not concerned about our offense. Unfortunately, offense throughout a season never stays at consistently high level. There will be slumps. The dog days of August are famous for slumps. Guys start to wear down. The long season and the heat start to take a toll. However, our offense is the biggest run producing offense by a wide margin up to this point of the season, and I expect that they will remain in the top spot although the gap with the second place team might close.

 

Our pitching has been worse than league average. That is what continues to concern me. Making the playoff with a 4.26 ERA today is very difficult. Our hitting can't do better than being the best. There is plenty of room for improvement by our pitching. If we don't make the post season, it will be because our pitching has been atrocious over the course of a full season. They have managed to lose several games where the offense put up 8, 9 or 10 runs.

[bosoxmal]

Oyher examples that help to tell the story: Following are the 7, 15 and 30 dy batting average of the three "Key" offensive players (alphabeticallY)

 

Betts: 7 day( .419,----.367 and--- .373

 

Nogaerts: .167------- 297----------217

 

Ortiz----------.107--------217----------252

 

Bogaerts needs about 3 days off, and Papi about a week. The RbI numbers are even more revealing:

 

Betts: 5, 13 and 19

Nogaerts: 1, 6, and 16

Ortiz: 0, 2 and 7

 

Now tell me who should be hitting in the 3 or 4 spot!

[Bellhorn04]

Oyher examples that help to tell the story: Following are the 7, 15 and 30 dy batting average of the three "Key" offensive players (alphabeticallY)

 

Betts: 7 day( .419,----.367 and--- .373

 

Nogaerts: .167------- 297----------217

 

Ortiz----------.107--------217----------252

 

Bogaerts needs about 3 days off, and Papi about a week. The RbI numbers are even more revealing:

 

Betts: 5, 13 and 19

Nogaerts: 1, 6, and 16

Ortiz: 0, 2 and 7

 

Now tell me who should be hitting in the 3 or 4 spot!

 

Yeah but who's going to be getting on base in front of Mookie?

 

If he's the only one hitting, we've got big problems, and changing the batting order is like switching deck chairs on the Titanic.

[User Name]

^Dat logic today though. Good stuff, Bell.

[bosoxmal]

I don't remember any great hitter leading off. Makes no sense. If Bradley or Pedroia is not capable of getting on base, then they don't belong on the team. Mookie's forte is hitting not taking walks. Mookie's OBP is .350!!!! Lower than most everyone else. Lower than Bogaerts, Pedroia, hell even lowere than Leone!

 

 

Fact: leadoff men should be those who get on base more often than most. Mookie doesn't walk a lot. He's hitting .310 now with 23 home runs because he's become aggresive. My God, you people would have had Williams and Musial leading off!

[bosoxmal]

Wasn't Altuve leading off earlier in the year? He hits third these days. Someone wised up.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't remember any great hitter leading off. Makes no sense.

 

You only have to look back a mere 5 years:

 

2011 Ellsbury

321/376/552

32 HR 105 RBI

[StephenCurry30]

Really you don't remember ANY great hitter batting lead off? Ricky Henderson!?!? Lou Brock!!?Trout was hitting lead off a few years ago. Jose Bautista has hit leadoff for the Jays. Alfonso Soriano, obviously Ellsbury.

 

yeah

[StephenCurry30]

And that was just off the top of my head, if I felt like doing any type of research I could find even more examples.

[Kimmi]

I am not concerned about our offense. Unfortunately, offense throughout a season never stays at consistently high level. There will be slumps. The dog days of August are famous for slumps. Guys start to wear down. The long season and the heat start to take a toll. However, our offense is the biggest run producing offense by a wide margin up to this point of the season, and I expect that they will remain in the top spot although the gap with the second place team might close.

 

Our pitching has been worse than league average. That is what continues to concern me. Making the playoff with a 4.26 ERA today is very difficult. Our hitting can't do better than being the best. There is plenty of room for improvement by our pitching. If we don't make the post season, it will be because our pitching has been atrocious over the course of a full season. They have managed to lose several games where the offense put up 8, 9 or 10 runs.

 

I have confidence in our offense to snap out of their funk. However, if they continue to struggle like they have been, regardless of the reasons, then that is a concern. 7 of our last 11 losses have been in games where our pitchers have allowed 4 runs or fewer. IMO, the pitching got the job done in those games, the offense did not.

 

I agree that our pitching overall has not been good. However, since July 8th, which is the last time we saw O'Sullivan pitch, our ERA has been 3.26. Pomeranz and ERod have been able to stabilize the bottom of the rotation. I don't think our pitching is as concerning as the overall 4.25 ERA suggests.

[bosoxmal]

"Trout was hitting 1st a few years ago". Yeh, and now he isn't. Henderson was known much more his pwoess on the base paths than he was as a hitter. Ellsbury had that great year and hit leas off. Agreed. I don't agree that he SHOULD have been leading off. He was a long way from having the power numbers that Betts has, and will have when he has his best years.

 

There are exceptions going all the back, but that's what they are, exceptions. Does that make it Gospel? Can't the manager think of what might be best? Betts had been labeled for lead off back three years ago. Not many projected what he's turned out to be. Noi a big surprise considering he's, what, 5-9 and 175 lbs? But, he is what he is, and not what he was projected to be.

[bosoxmal]

For 6 straight years Mickey Mantle had double digit numbers in stolen bases. I have serious doubts that he ever led off!