Lineup Discussions

[cp176]

It's a baseball discussion board. All this talk about how Henry should spend his money even though we don't know what he will do is what we do.

 

I'm pretty sure I get that but thanks anyway. That is why all of our opinions even the uneducated ones such as mine have some value I hope. lol

[Spudboy]

I don't think anyone suggested that they will stand pat.

 

I just don't think they need to go out and buy the best FA available in an attempt to replace Papi. Our offense will be fine.

 

There many other ways that the FO can somewhat offset the loss of Papi without signing Encarnacion.

 

1. It has been suggested that Moncada, Young , and Swihart could be the DH. That is standing pat or regressing any way you look at it.

 

2.. I did not suggest getting "the best FA available".

 

3. Yes , of course. The Sox can build the same offense as this year's by applying the "more than one way to build a rotation" philosophy. Brilliant!

 

I say the Sox make a move.

[Bellhorn04]

If they do decide to get a bat, there has to be a Plan B to Encarnacion.

 

Because if there are a few other teams interested in him, things could really get stupid.

[Kimmi]

1. It has been suggested that Moncada, Young , and Swihart could be the DH. That is standing pat or regressing any way you look at it.

 

2.. I did not suggest getting "the best FA available".

 

3. Yes , of course. The Sox can build the same offense as this year's by applying the "more than one way to build a rotation" philosophy. Brilliant!

 

I say the Sox make a move.

 

1. I do not agree that Moncada, Young, or Swihart should be the DH next year, but even if one of them were, that does not equate to standing pat if other areas of the team are improved.

 

2. That's fine that you did not suggest getting the best FA available. That was my point though. We can improve the team without signing an expensive big bat to replace Papi.

 

3. Papi cannot be replaced, even if we signed Encarnacion.

 

Would it be okay if perhaps the offense is still the best offense in the league next year but only outscores the rest of the league by 50 runs instead of 100?

 

Would it be okay if perhaps the offense is only the 2nd best offense in the league next year but our BP improved to #1?

 

4. As I said, I don't think the Sox will stand pat. Our definitions of "standing pat" seem to be different.

[Spudboy]

1. I do not agree that Moncada, Young, or Swihart should be the DH next year, but even if one of them were, that does not equate to standing pat if other areas of the team are improved.

 

2. That's fine that you did not suggest getting the best FA available. That was my point though. We can improve the team without signing an expensive big bat to replace Papi.

 

3. Papi cannot be replaced, even if we signed Encarnacion.

 

Would it be okay if perhaps the offense is still the best offense in the league next year but only outscores the rest of the league by 50 runs instead of 100?

 

Would it be okay if perhaps the offense is only the 2nd best offense in the league next year but our BP improved to #1?

 

4. As I said, I don't think the Sox will stand pat. Our definitions of "standing pat" seem to be different.

 

I do not believe that making moves to improve the roster in other areas and attempting to replace much of Ortiz's production are mutually exclusive.

 

I was only referring to standing pat with regards to the later.

[sk7326]

Sox will make a move or three - that much is fairly obvious ... will it be sledgehammer or scalpel? That is less obvious.

 

There could be some churn at 3B - but it's not clear. Moncada clearly needs some work - and Shaw is a perfectly acceptable solution in the meantime. And there is a fair argument that Devers is the real end game there. We have a ton of OF talent, enough to turn that into a premium starter - and there is no doubt Dombrowski will look in that direction. Would Bradley and Moncada for Jose Fernandez be enough to wake up the Marlins? I don't know - but that is something which could be put out there.

 

The good news I think is that the team has not had a ton of performances which feel unsustainable - besides Wright - and even then, knucklers will have those sorts of streaks. I guess Lyon too - but I think a "solid starter" profile for him is perfectly reasonable.

 

Losing Ortiz will hurt a lot - but between the improvement you expect from kiddos and perhaps some small moves (like a better RH caddy for Shaw) you can get enough of that production to not drop off much.

[moonslav59]

I do not believe that making moves to improve the roster in other areas and attempting to replace much of Ortiz's production are mutually exclusive.

 

I was only referring to standing pat with regards to the later.

 

I guess I don't think of planning to get way more PAs from Beni and maybe some more from Moncada, Young, Leon and Swihart is "standing pat", but I see how not adding to the current roster can be viewed that way.

[moonslav59]

Sox will make a move or three - that much is fairly obvious ... will it be sledgehammer or scalpel? That is less obvious.

 

There could be some churn at 3B - but it's not clear. Moncada clearly needs some work - and Shaw is a perfectly acceptable solution in the meantime. And there is a fair argument that Devers is the real end game there. We have a ton of OF talent, enough to turn that into a premium starter - and there is no doubt Dombrowski will look in that direction. Would Bradley and Moncada for Jose Fernandez be enough to wake up the Marlins? I don't know - but that is something which could be put out there.

 

The good news I think is that the team has not had a ton of performances which feel unsustainable - besides Wright - and even then, knucklers will have those sorts of streaks. I guess Lyon too - but I think a "solid starter" profile for him is perfectly reasonable.

 

We have a great OF but not much depth. Trading an OF'er means needing to replace an OF'er with another move (Beltran? until Basabe may be ready? Move Moncada to LF?)

[Nick]

1. I do not agree that Moncada, Young, or Swihart should be the DH next year, but even if one of them were, that does not equate to standing pat if other areas of the team are improved.

 

2. That's fine that you did not suggest getting the best FA available. That was my point though. We can improve the team without signing an expensive big bat to replace Papi.

 

3. Papi cannot be replaced, even if we signed Encarnacion.

 

Would it be okay if perhaps the offense is still the best offense in the league next year but only outscores the rest of the league by 50 runs instead of 100?

 

Would it be okay if perhaps the offense is only the 2nd best offense in the league next year but our BP improved to #1?

 

4. As I said, I don't think the Sox will stand pat. Our definitions of "standing pat" seem to be different.

 

It took our offense to be better by 100 runs to secure 4 game lead in AL East as of this morning. Why would anyone think we can win next year scoring less?

Everyone on the planet says we can't replace Ortiz. So we do nothing? Do you honestly believe that's what DD will do? I seriously doubt it.

 

Offense in baseball is very different. There's a 'team' component to it. Think of difference between say Hanigan versus what Sandy did. That impacts every hitter in Boston lineup. Baseball is unique in that it's a team sport but you can have best player at each position and there's no chemistry issue strictly on baseball matters. All nine batters get to hit. There's no sharing of one ball as in basketball where team chemistry/composition is very critical.

 

To suggest you can go from Ortiz who has clearly had the BEST pre-retirement year in baseball history to say we'll just hope bunch of others can fill in as DH on their day off is astounding.

Edited September 21, 2016 by Nick

[sk7326]

It took our offense to be better by 100 runs to secure 4 game lead in AL East as of this morning. Why would anyone think we can win next year scoring less?

Everyone on the planet says we can't replace Ortiz. So we do nothing? Do you honestly believe that's what DD will do? I seriously doubt it.

 

Offense in baseball is very different. There's a 'team' component to it. Think of difference between say Hanigan versus what Sandy did. That impacts every hitter in Boston lineup. Baseball is unique in that it's a team sport but you can have best player at each position and there's no chemistry issue strictly on baseball matters. All nine batters get to hit. There's no sharing of one ball as in basketball where team chemistry/composition is very critical.

 

To suggest you can go from Ortiz who has clearly had the BEST pre-retirement year in baseball history to say we'll just hope bunch of others can fill in on their day off is astounding.

 

Who knows - luck in 50-50 games kicks in here. Sox are 18-22 in one run games, so there are a few games there that could be bounced back ... and the pitching will probably be better from the jump.

[Bellhorn04]

Personally I have faith in Henry and Dombrowski. Henry has shown he's willing to spend big for a winner, and DD has made some good moves.

 

I see no reason to worry much about any of it...

[greenwell]

Who knows - luck in 50-50 games kicks in here. Sox are 18-22 in one run games, so there are a few games there that could be bounced back ... and the pitching will probably be better from the jump.

 

Exactly. They had the worst pitching staff in the league the first half of the year.

[S5Dewey]

Exactly. They had the worst pitching staff in the league the first half of the year.

 

This is why I'm not sold on the idea of spending a lot of money to replace Papi. This team dug themselves a big hole early in the year and now they've dug themselves out of it in the second half. I'm one who believes that present performance is a better indication of future performance than is past performance.

 

Not everyone is going to perform at this level, but at the same time I don't see our pitching staff becoming what it was early in this season. IMO we won't need to outscore everyone else by 100 runs in order to win in 2017.

[Spudboy]

This is why I'm not sold on the idea of spending a lot of money to replace Papi. This team dug themselves a big hole early in the year and now they've dug themselves out of it in the second half. I'm one who believes that present performance is a better indication of future performance than is past performance.

 

Not everyone is going to perform at this level, but at the same time I don't see our pitching staff becoming what it was early in this season. IMO we won't need to outscore everyone else by 100 runs in order to win in 2017.

 

I can understand and respect this view. However, what upgrades will other teams make? What if their moves eclipse the Sox in 2017.

 

I think stagnation is regression based on what I have seen over the years.

 

Loosing Papi's production sets us back, too. No amount of ABs by the guys mentioned above will fully compensate for that.

[moonslav59]

It took our offense to be better by 100 runs to secure 4 game lead in AL East as of this morning. Why would anyone think we can win next year scoring less?

Everyone on the planet says we can't replace Ortiz. So we do nothing? Do you honestly believe that's what DD will do? I seriously doubt it.

 

Again, nobody is saying we shouldn't or won't do anything. Nobody.

 

Some of us are saying we might not need to go big at acquiring a DH to make up for Papi's loss. There are other weak links that can be fixed or upgraded. We could also add a bat that is not a huge addition along with upgrading the pen, rotation and/or defense.

 

 

Offense in baseball is very different. There's a 'team' component to it. Think of difference between say Hanigan versus what Sandy did. That impacts every hitter in Boston lineup. Baseball is unique in that it's a team sport but you can have best player at each position and there's no chemistry issue strictly on baseball matters. All nine batters get to hit. There's no sharing of one ball as in basketball where team chemistry/composition is very critical.

 

To suggest you can go from Ortiz who has clearly had the BEST pre-retirement year in baseball history to say we'll just hope bunch of others can fill in as DH on their day off is astounding.

 

Again, who is saying do nothing? The ones that are saying do nothing to the offense are saying do something to the pitching and/or defense.

 

While adding EE instead of Beltran or Turner or some other "lesser player" would certainly add to our offensive projected output, the money spent may prevent us from upgrading the pen, rotation and defense as much as we could by just signing the lesser player. If we added Fernandez, Quintana or Sale without giving up a ML offensive piece, one could argue that would make a huge dent in the "replacing of Papi".

 

Then there is this... (again)...

 

Here's another way to look at it: instead of trying to replace Papi's 600 PAs or 1.000+ OPS offense, we could replace these PAs with more PAs from Beni (.865), Swihart (.720), Young (.894), Moncada, Leon (.891) and Holt (.717):

 

PAs Player OPS

177 Vaz .580

124 Hill .554

110 Hanigan .463

64 Brentz .690

31 Holaday .459

12 Marrero .350

23 others going 3 for 36.

 

That's about 550 PAs of putrid production We could gain over 200 points here alone..

 

I'm not saying this will make up for losing Papi, but it's a big step in the right direction. Add a couple strong set-up men in the pen, maybe upgrade a SP'er, pick up a Beltran or Turner, and we may come close to making up for Papi's loss without gambling on EE.

 

 

 

[Kimmi]

It took our offense to be better by 100 runs to secure 4 game lead in AL East as of this morning. Why would anyone think we can win next year scoring less?

Everyone on the planet says we can't replace Ortiz. So we do nothing? Do you honestly believe that's what DD will do? I seriously doubt it.

 

Offense in baseball is very different. There's a 'team' component to it. Think of difference between say Hanigan versus what Sandy did. That impacts every hitter in Boston lineup. Baseball is unique in that it's a team sport but you can have best player at each position and there's no chemistry issue strictly on baseball matters. All nine batters get to hit. There's no sharing of one ball as in basketball where team chemistry/composition is very critical.

 

To suggest you can go from Ortiz who has clearly had the BEST pre-retirement year in baseball history to say we'll just hope bunch of others can fill in as DH on their day off is astounding.

 

First, our Pythagorean record says that we should have 92 wins, 5 more than what we have. IMO, that's the number you start with, not the 87 wins.

 

Secondly, no one is suggesting that the Sox do nothing. All I'm suggesting is that our offense is good enough that we do not need to pay an arm and a leg for an aging Encarnacion.

 

Thirdly, you can win just as many games scoring fewer runs if you allow fewer runs. Improving the pitching or defense can have the same effect as improving the offense.

[Kimmi]

Personally I have faith in Henry and Dombrowski. Henry has shown he's willing to spend big for a winner, and DD has made some good moves.

 

I see no reason to worry much about any of it...

 

This FO has not let me down yet, even in the years where we finished last.

[moonslav59]

First, our Pythagorean record says that we should have 92 wins, 5 more than what we have. IMO, that's the number you start with, not the 87 wins.

 

It's no accident we are better now than at the start of the year, despite the loss of Wright (our best 1st half SP'er).

 

We added Pomeranz. Buch came back to life. ERod found his groove, and the pen got healthy and better.

 

Of course, there's no way to project all that will continue from day one next season, but there's reason to be optimistic.

 

There may be major injuries or lots of minor ones. There may be too many unexpected declines by players still in prime or pre-prime. One could argue a lot went right this year, and expecting it to happen again next year is foolish.

 

I see it this way, our best players are still in prime, just entering prime or pre-prime. One should actually expect improvement from the rest of the players as a whole, next year.

 

We have Carson Smith returning. We'll have a full season from Beni. We should get better catcher production than the first half of 2016, but probably not near what we got the second half. We could maybe do more than just improve on this...

 

PAs Player OPS

177 Vaz .580

124 Hill .554

110 Hanigan .463

64 Brentz .690

31 Holaday .459

12 Marrero .350

23 others going 3 for 36,

 

We could improve on this as well...

126 IP Buch 5.20 (maybe by Buch himself)

90 IP ERod 4.98 (probably by ERod himself)

64 iP Barnes 4.10

62 IP Pomeranz 4.91

49 IP Taz 4.25

34 IP Kelly 5.88

21 IP O'Sullivan 6.75

17 IP Owens 7.79

13 IP Abad 6.39

8 IP Elias 12.91

 

Yes, there will be new names next year with numbers like these. There will probably be some of the same names with the same or worse numbers, but looking at the second half of this year gives me encouragement that the whole of next year's pitching will be better, perhaps even with just Carson Smith "added" and full seasons from Pom, Erod, Kelly and the "new" Buch.

 

Maybe our defense can improve by having Shaw at 1B rather than HanRam. Beni should do better than the mix we had this year in LF (Holt 1/3 of the innings, Young another third and Brentz+ Swihart about a fifth. Perhaps Bogey can actually improve next year instead of being about the same or a little worse than last year.

 

There's lots of reasons to be optimistic about or chances next year. This second half team is not the same as the first half team.

.

13 IP N Ramirez 6.39

 

 

 

 

 

.

[sk7326]

I do not know if the data fully backs this up, but conceptually, run prevention should help winning a wee bit more than run scoring ... (just thinking about the marginal impact of scoring the first run vs say the 8th one). With this team's offense, focusing on run prevention in the offseason is probably the easier path to getting better.

[Kimmi]

It's no accident we are better now than at the start of the year, despite the loss of Wright (our best 1st half SP'er).

 

........

 

There's lots of reasons to be optimistic about or chances next year. This second half team is not the same as the first half team..

 

I agree Moon. We'll all miss Papi, and like I said, no one can replace him, not just because of his numbers, but because of the icon that he is. But that does not mean it's going to be all doom and gloom for the Sox next year.

 

Personally, I think if the team did stand pat except for adding a couple more relievers, we'd be in very good shape. Not that I'm suggesting that is what the FO should do, but I don't think they have a great deal of work to do this offseason.

 

Either way, I really like the outlook for this team for the next several years.

[Kimmi]

I do not know if the data fully backs this up, but conceptually, run prevention should help winning a wee bit more than run scoring ... (just thinking about the marginal impact of scoring the first run vs say the 8th one). With this team's offense, focusing on run prevention in the offseason is probably the easier path to getting better.

 

Makes a lot of sense.

[Nick]

I agree Moon. We'll all miss Papi, and like I said, no one can replace him, not just because of his numbers, but because of the icon that he is. But that does not mean it's going to be all doom and gloom for the Sox next year.

 

Personally, I think if the team did stand pat except for adding a couple more relievers, we'd be in very good shape. Not that I'm suggesting that is what the FO should do, but I don't think they have a great deal of work to do this offseason.

 

Either way, I really like the outlook for this team for the next several years.

 

I'd feel much better If Moncada can contribute the way Beni has......I hate platooning players. I want him to take the job.

 

I sometimes try to agitate the board with some contrarian views but this has been an enjoyable season...

[sk7326]

I'd feel much better If Moncada can contribute the way Beni has......I hate platooning players. I want him to take the job.

 

I sometimes try to agitate the board with some contrarian views but this has been an enjoyable season...

 

Maybe Sandoval becomes that platoon partiner

[User Name]

I do not know if the data fully backs this up, but conceptually, run prevention should help winning a wee bit more than run scoring ... (just thinking about the marginal impact of scoring the first run vs say the 8th one). With this team's offense, focusing on run prevention in the offseason is probably the easier path to getting better.

 

I don't even buy that conceptually. You can't win 0-0.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't even buy that conceptually. You can't win 0-0.

 

That is true. But I think he is only talking about the marginal effect from a certain baseline.

 

For example, say you are a team that averages 5.5 runs scored and 4.5 runs allowed. Would it be better to increase the 5.5 to 6.0, or to decrease the 4.5 to 4.0, or is it totally neutral?

[User Name]

That is true. But I think he is only talking about the marginal effect from a certain baseline.

 

For example, say you are a team that averages 5.5 runs scored and 4.5 runs allowed. Would it be better to increase the 5.5 to 6.0, or to decrease the 4.5 to 4.0, or is it totally neutral?

 

Because of game to game scoring variances, it's impossible to look at it from that perspective IMO.

[cp176]

I'd feel much better If Moncada can contribute the way Beni has......I hate platooning players. I want him to take the job.

 

I sometimes try to agitate the board with some contrarian views but this has been an enjoyable season...

 

I really hope things work out for Moncada. If he shows signs of living up to just some of his potential, wherever he plays I don't think he will be platooning with anybody. By wherever he plays I not only mean what position. Hope he winds up playing for us but you never know.

[sk7326]

I don't even buy that conceptually. You can't win 0-0.

 

Indeed - and I am certainly not suggesting throwing away offense. I think you are right when you get close to zero. However, I think within the sort of range Bell talks about, there is some slight increased marginal value in going from 4.5 to 4.0 vs 5.5 to 6.0. Is it enough to prefer one strategy over another? (run scoring vs run prevention as an organizing concept) Probably not.

[Kimmi]

I'd feel much better If Moncada can contribute the way Beni has......I hate platooning players. I want him to take the job.

 

I sometimes try to agitate the board with some contrarian views but this has been an enjoyable season...

 

I think Moncada will contribute in a big way, I just don't think it will be at the beginning of the season. I don't think he's quite ready. I can see him coming up near the trade deadline next year like Beni did this year.

[Spudboy]

I think Moncada will contribute in a big way, I just don't think it will be at the beginning of the season. I don't think he's quite ready. I can see him coming up near the trade deadline next year like Beni did this year.

 

Doubt it.

 

I say he should start the new season back in Portland to develop and refine basic tools and skills.

 

Then when he looks ready ( laugh ), off to Pawtucket where he should stay for most if not all the remainder of the season so he can start to get a a diet of AAAA breaking balls.

 

Maybe a September call-up.

 

This kid is even less developed than Castillo. He is young. Train and develop him as you would another player his age.

Edited September 22, 2016 by Spudboy