Xander vs. Nomar

[dustcover]

Recently, a friend and fellow Sox fan initiated a discussion on the subject of Sox shortstops. He claims that Xander is now better than Nomar at shortstop. I'll admit that Xander has the potential to become one of the better shortstops that have played for the Sox but to now classify him as better than Nomar is a bit of a stretch.

 

Here are some stats on their respective early playing years.

 

Nomar

.........G...BA..OBP..HR..SLG..OPS

1997 153 .306 .342 30 .534 .875

1998 143 .323 .362 35 .584 .946

1999 135 .357 .418 27 .603 1.022

2000 140 .372 .434 21 .599 1.033

 

Xander

 

2014 144 .240 .297 12 .362 .660

2015 152 .320 .355 7 .421 .776

 

He is now trying to convince me that this year Xander will eclipse Nomar's best single year.

 

Anyone care to weigh in?

Edited June 16, 2016 by dustcover

[mvp 78]

Xander is great, but doesn't have Nomar's power. He'll probably have a longer career though.

[Jack Flap]

Nomar's best OPS+: 153, 156 (1999-2000) [age 25-26 seasons]

Xander's 2016 OPS+ to date: 143 [age 23 season]

 

So even accounting for the difference in offensive environment, Bogaerts has clearly not 'eclipsed' peak Nomar at this point (that's an exceedingly high bar to meet)...though it's also worth noting that Nomar never had an OPS+ higher than 140 in any of his other seasons.

 

Xander is great, but doesn't have Nomar's power. He'll probably have a longer career though.

Agree, though he's on pace for around 20 homers this year and I still don't think we've seen his maximum power output yet. I wouldn't be shocked to see some 25-30 HR seasons from him down the road.

Edited June 16, 2016 by Jack Flap

[Spudboy]

Not even close. Dumb argument.

[Dojji]

Don't really care right now if he is better or is not better than Nomar. He doesn't have to be better than Nomar to be a very very valuable player for this team.

[Jack Flap]

Don't really care right now if he is better or is not better than Nomar. He doesn't have to be better than Nomar to be a very very valuable player for this team.

 

I think this goes without saying.

[moonslav59]

Nomar was never a great defensive SS. He was all flash with his running, jumping, twisting throws from the hole. IMO, after the first 2-3 years, he became a minus fielder.

 

I was never high on Bogey's defensive projections, but he has surprised me with his continued improvement at SS. I think he's already better defensively at SS than Nomar ever was, but that's an arguable point.

 

It's two early to judge Bogey vs Nomar, but I'd put my money on Bogey to end up with a better overall record (not just offense) than Nomar.

[cp176]

i loved Nomar just like the rest of us. No one made the toughest of plays look easier than he did. The basic routine plays - not so much . Looked pretty average to me. Bogaert's makes the routine look routine. Obviously it is way to early to compare. I won't compare them anyway but I like a ss who is dependable with respect to the plays we expect them to make. Bogaerts has put the work in and he gets it done.

[greenwell]

If you look at age, not season number, Xander is 23 this season, which was Nomar's 1997 season. Xander is behind in HRs and triples, but has an edge in most other stats.

[Bellhorn04]

Nomar is dead to me.

[dustcover]

Not even close. Dumb argument.

Not an argument, more like a discussion. But I did invite everyone to 'weigh in', so thanks for your input.

[moonslav59]

i loved Nomar just like the rest of us. No one made the toughest of plays look easier than he did. The basic routine plays - not so much . Looked pretty average to me. Bogaert's makes the routine look routine. Obviously it is way to early to compare. I won't compare them anyway but I like a ss who is dependable with respect to the plays we expect them to make. Bogaerts has put the work in and he gets it done.

 

I actually thought he made routine plays in the hole look tougher.

[cp176]

I actually thought he made routine plays in the hole look tougher.

 

I was a ss and I rarely saw a ball in the hole that I thought was routine!

[Slasher9]

the obvious PeD use of nomar makes the offense comparison skewed.

defensively i would def take X.

i will take X-Bo every day of the week and 2x on off days.

[Kimmi]

When all else fails, go with WAR.

 

Nomar's best year in terms of WAR was 2000, when he was worth 7.6 WAR.

 

Xander currently has a WAR of 4 in 63 games. He's on pace for a 10.3 WAR year.

[dustcover]

When all else fails, go with WAR.

 

Nomar's best year in terms of WAR was 2000, when he was worth 7.6 WAR.

 

Xander currently has a WAR of 4 in 63 games. He's on pace for a 10.3 WAR year.

 

That's very interesting. Point well made.

[a700hitter]

pace means nothing.

[dustcover]

pace means nothing.

 

So said the hare to the tortoise!

[a700hitter]

So said the hare to the tortoise!

And when tortoises play baseball, that will mean something.

[Dojji]

And when tortoises play baseball, that will mean something.

 

The tortoise bats cleanup

[dustcover]

And when tortoises play baseball, that will mean something.

 

[moonslav59]

Even if Bogey slows to last year's WAR "pace" the rest of this season, it would mean his WAR would be ...

 

3.9 so far + 2.6 (60% of 4.3) = 6.5

 

6.5 would equal Nomar's 3rd best season according to fangraphs. His best seasons were:

 

'00 7.6

'98 7.3

'97 6.4

.99 6.3

'03 5.8

'02 4.8

'06 2.0

'04 1.5

 

I'll still place my money on Bogey having a better career. If never tops a 7.6 WAR, so be it.

[a700hitter]

Pace really means nothing. I think people forget just how good Nomar was. His career was affected by injury, particularly the wrist injury. If Bogey is to have a better career than Nomar, he will just need to stay free of major injuries. He certainly has the skills to put together a great career. Pace in baseball really means nothing. Guys age, they get injured, they have personal problems etc. Careers do not progress according to some statistical pace. Bogey is fun to watch, and he is already a star. I am just going to enjoy watching him play now, while he is a Red Sox. I am not worried about where his career will end up. He could end up with a Derek Jeter career or a Tony C career. I'll compare him when he has a few more years under his belt.

[iortiz]

XB looks like an allstar caliber player moving forward BUT.... IMO we have to see a looooot more from him to even put or consider him in the same sentence with Nomar.

[Eddy Ballgame]

Pace really means nothing. I think people forget just how good Nomar was. His career was affected by injury, particularly the wrist injury. If Bogey is to have a better career than Nomar, he will just need to stay free of major injuries. He certainly has the skills to put together a great career. Pace in baseball really means nothing. Guys age, they get injured, they have personal problems etc. Careers do not progress according to some statistical pace. Bogey is fun to watch, and he is already a star. I am just going to enjoy watching him play now, while he is a Red Sox. I am not worried about where his career will end up. He could end up with a Derek Jeter career or a Tony C career. I'll compare him when he has a few more years under his belt.

 

If it wasn't for his excessive use of PED's, there would be a statue of Nomar next to Fenway right now, but Bogaerts has the talent & character traits to be a star in this league for a long time.

[Bellhorn04]

Nomar has a double cloud over him. One is PED's, which has a lot to do with the SI cover. The other is that he parted from the team on bad terms in a historical year for the team.

[Eddy Ballgame]

Nomar has a double cloud over him. One is PED's, which has a lot to do with the SI cover. The other is that he parted from the team on bad terms in a historical year for the team.

 

The SI cover gets the publicity, but you didn't have to be a surgeon to realize that most of his injuries following the SI cover were consistent with excessive PED use. Guys who don't use PEDs don't tear muscles right off of the bone.

[moonslav59]

Nomar had 5 or 6 really good to great seasons. I'm thinking Bogey will beat him on longevity alone, but even if you go back and look at Bogey's best 6 year stretch, my guess is he'll have a pretty even WAR total than Nomar's best 6 year span.

[moonslav59]

The SI cover gets the publicity, but you didn't have to be a surgeon to realize that most of his injuries following the SI cover were consistent with excessive PED use. Guys who don't use PEDs don't tear muscles right off of the bone.

 

Plus, wasn't there doubts about how he got hurt? That he lied about where and when he got hurt?

[a700hitter]

I think the PED cloud over Nomar is extremely unfair. He is no more of a suspect to me than any other player from that era.