Xander vs. Nomar

[Bellhorn04]

Plus, wasn't there doubts about how he got hurt? That he lied about where and when he got hurt?

 

Yes, there were doubts about how he got hurt in 2004 and suspicions he was lying about it. He acted like a total a-hole that year. What happened to him served him right IMO.

[a700hitter]

Yes, there were doubts about how he got hurt in 2004 and suspicions he was lying about it. He acted like a total a-hole that year. What happened to him served him right IMO.

I blame Mia Hamm pressuring him to move to LA. Until then, he always had a smile on his face and he always enjoyed playing.

[Bellhorn04]

I blame Mia Hamm pressuring him to move to LA. Until then, he always had a smile on his face and he always enjoyed playing.

 

I think it was more like until his failed contract negotiations and the Sox almost trading him that offseason. He took it very badly. Manny moved on from almost being traded and had another excellent season.

[a700hitter]

I think it was more like until his failed contract negotiations and the Sox almost trading him that offseason. He took it very badly. Manny moved on from almost being traded and had another excellent season.

I still blame Mia. He was offered a very large contract by the Red Sox. He ended up in LA for a lot less. Thanks to Mia.

[Spudboy]

Nomar has a double cloud over him. One is PED's, which has a lot to do with the SI cover. The other is that he parted from the team on bad terms in a historical year for the team.

 

So a magazine cover photo is now conclusive evidence that Nomar juiced?

 

I don't get it. Has any substantial and creditable evidence been offered?

[Spudboy]

I think the PED cloud over Nomar is extremely unfair. He is no more of a suspect to me than any other player from that era.

 

I'm with you on this.

 

Imagine if the brakes on my Toyota had not been working well. This conversation would never had happened!

[Spudboy]

I still blame Mia. He was offered a very large contract by the Red Sox. He ended up in LA for a lot less. Thanks to Mia.

 

Your idea is as valid as assuming that he juiced!

 

And who would not be bitter having to wake up next to that androgynous dyke?

[Eddy Ballgame]

I think it was more like until his failed contract negotiations and the Sox almost trading him that offseason. He took it very badly. Manny moved on from almost being traded and had another excellent season.

 

It was the perfect storm at the time. That game against NY when Jeter dove into the stands and Nomar sat alone on the bench while everyone was on the top step of the dugout during that rally didn't help, either.

 

The Sox were obviously aware that he had been taking PEDs excessively, as his body began breaking down. Their contract offer was way out of line with what Jeter & A-Rod were making, but there was no way they were going to invest in him long term. His defense was below average at that point and he had lost a ton of flexibility.

[a700hitter]

So a magazine cover photo is now conclusive evidence that Nomar juiced?

 

I don't get it. Has any substantial and creditable evidence been offered?

None. He never showed up on any list and was never suspended.

[a700hitter]

Your idea is as valid as assuming that he juiced!

 

And who would not be bitter having to wake up next to that androgynous dyke?

He stopped smiling around the time that he married her. Connect the dots. The PED stuff is an unfair smear without any basis.

[Eddy Ballgame]

None. He never showed up on any list and was never suspended.

 

And OJ didn't kill his wife and Ron Goldman because he was found innocent in a court of law. There is actually medical evidence that proves Nomar took PEDs without a shred of doubt. Do a little homework before you say "none." Maybe none "that you heard of."

[mvp 78]

His nose was totally juicing.

[a700hitter]

And OJ didn't kill his wife and Ron Goldman because he was found innocent in a court of law. There is actually medical evidence that proves Nomar took PEDs without a shred of doubt. Do a little homework before you say "none." Maybe none "that you heard of."

Ridiculous analogy. What is your evidence?

[Kimmi]

Pace really means nothing. I think people forget just how good Nomar was. His career was affected by injury, particularly the wrist injury. If Bogey is to have a better career than Nomar, he will just need to stay free of major injuries. He certainly has the skills to put together a great career. Pace in baseball really means nothing. Guys age, they get injured, they have personal problems etc. Careers do not progress according to some statistical pace. Bogey is fun to watch, and he is already a star. I am just going to enjoy watching him play now, while he is a Red Sox. I am not worried about where his career will end up. He could end up with a Derek Jeter career or a Tony C career. I'll compare him when he has a few more years under his belt.

 

I am not trying to say that Xander will be better than Nomar over his career. He may be, he may not be. Nomar was very good, but so is Xander. It's too soon to know.

 

The question in the opening post was whether Xander this year will eclipse Nomar's best year. IMO, 'pace' is very relevant to that question. Now there's still a long way to go in this season and many things can happen between now and October, but through nearly 40% of the season, Xander is on pace to beat Nomar's best season.

[Spudboy]

He stopped smiling around the time that he married her. Connect the dots. The PED stuff is an unfair smear without any basis.

 

Oh, I am not disagreeing with you at all.

 

To me, the Nomar situation turned very sour so fast that I did not see his departure coming.

 

Too bad. He was one f***ing great player.

 

And he was always nice to me and my Son.

[a700hitter]

I am not trying to say that Xander will be better than Nomar over his career. He may be, he may not be. Nomar was very good, but so is Xander. It's too soon to know.

 

The question in the opening post was whether Xander this year will eclipse Nomar's best year. IMO, 'pace' is very relevant to that question. Now there's still a long way to go in this season and many things can happen between now and October, but through nearly 40% of the season, Xander is on pace to beat Nomar's best season.

I don't think pace means anything. I remember when Reggie Jackson was on pace for 66 Home Runs at the All Star Break in 1969. He has 37 Home Runs and finished with 47 Home Runs. Pace means nothing.

[iortiz]

I don't think pace means anything. I remember when Reggie Jackson was on pace for 66 Home Runs at the All Star Break in 1969. He has 37 Home Runs and finished with 47 Home Runs. Pace means nothing.

 

I remember the pace of our team in 2011 and ended up in an epic collapse LOL!

[mvp 78]

I remember the pace of our team in 2011 and ended up in an epic collapse LOL!

 

Yes, 2011 was soooooo funny...

[a700hitter]

I remember the pace of our team in 2011 and ended up in an epic collapse LOL!

Yep, pace means nothing, absolutely nothing.

[Bellhorn04]

Having given it some thought I have to admit that my PED comments about Nomar were only fueled by my grudge against him for his malcontent act in 2004. To me he'll always be the guy who tried to sabotage our dream season, and the guy we had to get rid of to make it happen.

[Bellhorn04]

Yep, pace means nothing, absolutely nothing.

 

My interpretation of what you're saying is that pace means nothing when it's obviously going to be a very difficult pace to maintain.

[a700hitter]

My interpretation of what you're saying is that pace means nothing when it's obviously going to be a very difficult pace to maintain.

It never means anything.

[Bellhorn04]

It never means anything.

 

There I disagree. You have a much better chance of having a great season if you get off to a great start. Roger Maris couldn't have hit 61 homers if he only had 20 at the All-Star break.

[Bellhorn04]

Pace means something when you maintain it. Tiger Woods won all his majors when he took the lead fairly early and stayed there, crushing everybody else's hopes. In none of his 14 major championship wins did he trail going to the final round. He was the ultimate front-runner.

[Kimmi]

I don't think pace means anything. I remember when Reggie Jackson was on pace for 66 Home Runs at the All Star Break in 1969. He has 37 Home Runs and finished with 47 Home Runs. Pace means nothing.

 

I am not saying that Bogaerts is going to end up with a 10.3 WAR based on his pace so far. It's highly unlikely that any player or any team will maintain the same pace throughout the season or even throughout a month.

 

However, it's a bit of a stretch to say that pace doesn't mean anything. Pace tells you where the player stands at this point of the season, and it gives you a good idea of where the player should be at the end of the season, with regression.

 

Remember that regression doesn't mean that if a player was 10 HRs above his average the first half, that he'll be 10 HRs below average the second half. It means that during the second half, the player will likely hit closer to his typical number of HRs, still keeping him above his average for the year.

 

Xander's current WAR pace tells me that he is likely to eclipse Nomar's best season WAR.

[Jack Flap]

To me, saying a guy is "on pace to do X" is more a way of conceptualizing how good he's been so far and how good he could be if he keeps it up; what it obviously is not is some kind of guarantee that the player will continue on that pace.

 

We have several guys on the offensive side who are off to unreal starts and are candidates for serious regression in the second half (though I hope not). In Xander's case: forget Nomar, if he ends up with 10+ WAR he'll be pretty close to Mike Trout's best season. Hard to imagine him continuing at the blistering pace he's been on lately, but hey....why not?

[moonslav59]

I don't think pace means anything. I remember when Reggie Jackson was on pace for 66 Home Runs at the All Star Break in 1969. He has 37 Home Runs and finished with 47 Home Runs. Pace means nothing.

 

Talking about "pace" does not necessarily mean that's what you think the player will end up with, but it does have value as it can be used as a tool to conceptualize how well a player is doing at a given point in a season. For example, if I told you a player has 15 HRs at some point in a season, if might not mean much, but people do know that hitting 45 HRs over a full season is pretty darn good, so if a player has 15 HRs after a third of a season, the "on pace for 45" just shows the pro-rated value of 45. If a player had 15 HRs after 75% of the season, he'd be on pace for 20. It's all relative, and so I do think using the "on pace for" phrase does have value. It's not absolutely worthless.

 

We all know a guy who hits 3 Hrs in the first two games of a season might be "on pace" to hit 400HRs, so in the limited sense like this, the statement is useless, but once you get closet o half a season, it does have conceptual value, but not necessarily projecting value.

[Dojji]

In other words "on pace" has no value as a prediction and should not be (and usually is not) used as such. It has value as a documentary on what has already happened.