Sox Pitching Staff Discussion

[Bellhorn04]

So that Groundballs Inc. thing the Red Sox had planned for 2015 was just a really bad idea.

[illinoisredsox]

Price starting to fall into a pattern of everything away. Got to work both sides.

[sk7326]

So that Groundballs Inc. thing the Red Sox had planned for 2015 was just a really bad idea.

 

Groundballs are fine - although they had a giant sucking sound at 3B last year. In particular, when you play half the games at Fenway, keeping balls out of play is a pretty good idea.

 

Masterson always had a ghastly split against lefties - the Red Sox were hoping that perhaps since that is the cavernous part of Fenway that the stink could be limited - clearly that did not happen.

[illinoisredsox]

Bogaerts needs to be running here. I know Papi doesn't like it, but they need to make something happen.

[moonslav59]

Groundballs are fine - although they had a giant sucking sound at 3B last year. In particular, when you play half the games at Fenway, keeping balls out of play is a pretty good idea.

 

True, and although Bogey has come a long way on defense, his range factor was minus last year.

 

Our combined SS/3B UZR/150 was -13.4. That was the worst in MLB last year. (The combined range factor was about -29.)

 

I thought the idea made sense, but then signing Pablo contradicted the plan.

 

[Kimmi]

Demotion to the bullpen? No.

 

Nope, that is not going to happen.

[Kimmi]

Setting aside his monster paycheque for a moment, you can't argue with Price's attitude. He hasn't whined about anything, he hasn't blamed anyone but himself. He takes the ball every 5th day. He's a good candidate to turn things around.

 

Price does have to be commended for his attitude, his work ethic, and his leadership. He owns it every time.

[Kimmi]

Price isn't going to the bullpen. We are going to have to live with him in the rotation for better or worse. If Price doesn't improve, DD can still make this team a strong contender by strengthening the bullpen and adding another starter. Whether Price improves or not, he is not a problem that the FO can fix. Only Price can do that. And I expect that he will stop the bleeding tonight and pitch like vintage Price.

 

As for anyone being all right with Price having a lousy first year, how the f*** do you come to that conclusion. We are just observing a pattern of pitchers that come to Boston. Is there something to that pattern who knows. But no one is okay with it and no one is making excuses for him. I do expect him to right his ship, because he is healthy and very talented. That isn't an excuse. Send him hate mail if you want since you are consumed with hating him, but stop cursing in caps.

 

I don't believe you're making excuses for Price. But in the same vein, you accuse me of making excuses for players all the time when I say things like this about other players. Be consistent.

[Kimmi]

No excuses for Price, but I do believe

 

-His results have been more mediocre than "f***ing disaster."

-He has pitched much better this year than his 4.51 ERA would indicate (though I understand the perspective of those who couldn't care less about the peripherals and only worry about the bottom line).

-He was trending upwards before taking a step back in his last couple of starts.

-Not that it excuses Price in any way, but for whatever reason, this seems to be a trend for us...have we had a big-name pitcher come to Boston and immediately live up to expectations since Schilling?

-He has not gotten anything close to a free pass for his performance thus far, either on this board or in Red Sox fandom at large.

 

It's frustrating and more than a bit concerning, but I continue to hope for him to turn the corner and be the pitcher we all know he can be. It's not like we have any choice, right?

 

Another solid Flapjack post.

[Kimmi]

texting while on the way to the Met game. I might have missed that.

 

Boy, the Mets blew that game. You're 0-2 today.

[Kimmi]

You said it in a lot less words than I.

 

I feel the same about hitters who strike out a lot.

 

Go ahead and strike out 320 times, and I could care less as long as you have a .350+ OBP or .800+ OPS or 100+ RBIs.

 

I had the same argument about Napoli.

 

Ks are over-rated.

 

Ks for hitters are overrated. Ks for pitchers are not. K% has a fairly strong negative correlation with ERA.

[Kimmi]

Lot of strikeout pitichers on that ERA- scale.

 

fWAR uses FIP not xFIP anyway - asserting normalizing homeruns to fly ball rate is a bridge too far. Trends don't negate evaluating each snowflake individually - but the pitchers I want, especially as the season gets late and the teams get good, are dudes who miss bats (while pitching to contact). They create lots of good outcomes.

 

Thank you for this post and the previous one. You state things so much better than I do.

[SoxnCycles]

You said it in a lot less words than I.

 

I feel the same about hitters who strike out a lot.

 

Go ahead and strike out 320 times, and I could care less as long as you have a .350+ OBP or .800+ OPS or 100+ RBIs.

 

I had the same argument about Napoli.

 

Ks are over-rated.

 

Agreed.

If you're getting it done offensively, K as much as necessary.

[Slasher9]

Price looked like an Ace last night. very well done.

[SoxnCycles]

Price looked like an Ace last night. very well done.

 

Yup.

The Sox really need him to keep it going.

I don't know what's up with the offense, but this habit of 6 runs one night and 1 run the next is getting annoying.

[sk7326]

Agreed.

If you're getting it done offensively, K as much as necessary.

 

K's on offense are a completely different deal - for the most part a high strikeout rate is not a specific indicator of the pitcher not having the tools to succeed. (an excessively high one without any good stuff is, obviously)

 

Think of it this way - from a hitter's perspective ... it is him vs the defense ... the hitter doesn't care how the defense wins (mostly)

From the pitcher's side ... the strikeout is the contribution he is entirely responsible for (yes pitch calling and framing, but let's keep things simple). Other cases get to the other 8 guys - indeed it might be more about them.

[devildavid]

David Price has been a failure so far. Top talent is expected to produce top results. That may seem unfair, but that is the world of competitive sports. The Sox signed an Ace for Ace money and so far he isn't even the best starter in the rotation. For Price, mediocrity is equal to failure. He has to live up to a higher standard.

 

He gets an A+ for attitude and being a great team player. But until his performance matches his attitude, he remains a failure so far in 2016. Without Price elevating his game, the Sox do not look like a true playoff contender. He is the key pitcher down the stretch.

Edited July 29, 2016 by devildavid

[Michfan]

Not much to ague with there. Price wasn't paid millions to go 15-10

[Kimmi]

David Price has been a failure so far. Top talent is expected to produce top results. That may seem unfair, but that is the world of cmpetitive sports. The Sox signed an Ace for Ace money and so far he isn't even the best starter in the rotation. For Price, mediocrity is equal to failure. He has to live up to a higher standard.

 

He gets an A+ for attitude and being a great team player. But until his performance matches his attitude, he remains a failure so far in 2016. Without Price elevating his game, the Sox do not look like a true playoff contender. He is the key pitcher down the stretch.

 

I think 'failure' is a bit harsh, but I really can't argue with your overall point. Outside of a couple of performances, he has not been an ace.

[Kimmi]

Last night's 9th inning is a good example of why high K pitchers are good. Ziegler can be very good at inducing a ground ball and getting hitters to hit in double plays. But when the ball is put in play, you are at the mercy of the baseball 'luck' gods and your defense.

 

If you strike the batter out, you know it's an out, except on the rare occasion when the batter reaches on a 3rd strike passed ball.

[Bellhorn04]

There are degrees of failure. Price has been a semi-failure but there are definitely some positive signs too.

[Bellhorn04]

Last night's 9th inning is a good example of why high K pitchers are good. Ziegler can be very good at inducing a ground ball and getting hitters to hit in double plays. But when the ball is put in play, you are at the mercy of the baseball 'luck' gods and your defense.

 

If you strike the batter out, you know it's an out, except on the rare occasion when the batter reaches on a 3rd strike passed ball.

 

Part of the reason Theo paid a king's ransom for Chapman, huh?

[Bellhorn04]

Last night's 9th inning is a good example of why high K pitchers are good. Ziegler can be very good at inducing a ground ball and getting hitters to hit in double plays. But when the ball is put in play, you are at the mercy of the baseball 'luck' gods and your defense.

 

If you strike the batter out, you know it's an out, except on the rare occasion when the batter reaches on a 3rd strike passed ball.

 

Kimmi, doesn't all this tend to argue that Price is not actually having that bad of a season?

 

His fWAR is now 3.2, which is worth $25.4 million per FanGraphs. He's on pace to exceed his salary in value according to FG.

[devildavid]

There are degrees of failure. Price has been a semi-failure but there are definitely some positive signs too.

 

Almost every player has positive signs. Complete failure usally means the end of a career. For 2016 so far, Price is a failure. The only bright side is that he still has time to turn it around. So far, I haven't seen any signs of that happening.

[Bellhorn04]

Almost every player has positive signs. Complete failure usally means the end of a career. For 2016 so far, Price is a failure. The only bright side is that he still has time to turn it around. So far, I haven't seen any signs of that happening.

 

Huh? He just pitched 8 shutout innings.

[Kimmi]

Part of the reason Theo paid a king's ransom for Chapman, huh?

 

It's been a while since I looked into it, but I know that a few years back there were only 3 things that had a positive correlation to post season success. One of those was a shut down, power closer.

[mvp 78]

Huh? He just pitched 8 shutout innings.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=3184&position=P

 

His ERA will be under 4 by year end. Wright, our "real ace," will have a worse ERA than that by year end.

 

He already has 151 K's.

 

He hasn't given up a HR in the last 4 starts. That has been his biggest bugaboo all year.

[Kimmi]

Kimmi, doesn't all this tend to argue that Price is not actually having that bad of a season?

 

His fWAR is now 3.2, which is worth $25.4 million per FanGraphs. He's on pace to exceed his salary in value according to FG.

 

Price is definitely not having as bad a season as his ERA suggests. However, I do think that Price's fWAR is a little fluky due to him being one of the top strike out pitchers, yet also being the worst (I think he has improved to 3rd worst) pitcher in terms of hits allowed. While there is a lot of value to Ks and the # of innings pitched, I don't think he's been worth $25.4 million.

 

That said, I posted a couple of days ago that if I'm predicting the rest of the season out for Wright, Porcello, and Price, I'm going with Price being the best, then Porcello, then Wright.

[devildavid]

What Price is being paid has no relevance to his performance. He is not pitching up to his talent level, using all performance only statistical measures. His dollar value is only of concern to the accounting department. His non salary related numbers are not up to his normal level.

[devildavid]

Huh? He just pitched 8 shutout innings.

 

Consistency man, consistency. He is up and down like a yo-yo. His two prior games were horrible.