Sox Pitching Staff Discussion

[mvp 78]

You say 'If Wright comes back to earth, look out...' . I say, 'If Buchholz returns to last year's form, look out...' .

 

Your optimism doesn't bother me. I just think you have a tendency to be a little too patient with struggling players. Relying on Buchholz is a fool's errand imo.

[jacksonianmarch]

Buchholz is done. His stuff has taken a nosedive and he's never been the one to have brass balls out there to fight through anything

[Bellhorn04]

Buchholz is done. His stuff has taken a nosedive and he's never been the one to have brass balls out there to fight through anything

 

He might be done, but it's a little early to say. He pitched extremely well last year. But his time in Beantown is running out. He might do better for some small-market NL team with low expectations...

[illinoisredsox]

He might be done, but it's a little early to say. He pitched extremely well last year. But his time in Beantown is running out. He might do better for some small-market NL team with low expectations...

 

If he pitches like he did the other night, he's a serviceable #5 type guy. The question is will he.

 

If somebody younger/cheaper would step up and grab the #4-5 slot, Clay is totally expendable.

[mvp 78]

Volatility of knuckeballers and Buchholz' overall health and performance history. After all, the best way to project future performance is past performance right?

 

What is more likely:

Wright has a 4 ERA for the rest of the way and Buchholz shows no improvement

Wright has a 2 ERA for the rest of the way and Buchholz pitches like it's 2013

[Maxbialystock]

What is more likely:

Wright has a 4 ERA for the rest of the way and Buchholz shows no improvement

Wright has a 2 ERA for the rest of the way and Buchholz pitches like it's 2013

 

Two extremes. More likely is that Wright's ERA will rise, but not much over 3.00m and that Buchholz shows some improvement, which i thought I saw in his last start.

 

Wright's knuckler is a real problem for hitters when it is working. However, when it is working PB's are more likely, as are walks. When Wright starts missing the knuckler, he is inclined to feed in more fastballs, which are hittable. He also has that curve, but it's rarely in the strike zone or effective.

 

In his last outing Buchholz's fastball was 93-95 I think, and he also has a good curve and changeup and cut fastball. Command is his issue.

[moonslav59]

Volatility of knuckeballers and Buchholz' overall health and performance history. After all, the best way to project future performance is past performance right?

 

I think Buch's history might project to him having a good half season starting just about now.

 

I heard the same about Wake's "volatile" knuckleball for about 15 years.

 

I'm not saying what you said doesn't make sense, but would you say the odds are better or worse than 50-50 that either Buch or Wright do well the second half of 2016?

 

I'm thinking better.

 

The odds of both doing well together is way less than 50-50.

[moonslav59]

Buchholz is done. His stuff has taken a nosedive and he's never been the one to have brass balls out there to fight through anything

 

You may end up being right, but Buch has looked "done" about 5 times in his career but bounced back to do well and even very well several times. This may be the end of the yo-yo, but then again, it may not be.

[jacksonianmarch]

how is that two extremes? Clay isn't unlucky. He isn't running into s*** luck. He's allowing an inordinate amount of homeruns. His walks are WAY up and his K's are way down. If anything, he's been lucky to be where he is. His BABIP is .262. Think about that, he should be worse. His xFIP and FIP all peg him as an over 5ERA guy. This isn't some fluke here. He's pitching like dogshit. Anticipating that to continue isn't all that far fetched, especially for a guy who hasn't made it out of July healthy in a long time.

 

And on to Wright, if he was a guy with top shelf stuff, I'd be a believer. But he throws the knuckler. He is so successful because he has the stuff to be a pro without the knuckler. That being said, the knuckler can be fickle. Add to that his numbers. BABIP of .246, HR to FB rate of 0.37 and an xFIP of 4.28 and you have a guy who is primed for some sort of regression. Maybe he pulls a Dickey and wins a CY before falling back to earth. Maybe it starts tomorrow. Who knows, but the likelihood that he remains able to avoid hits on balls in play and keep the ball in the yard at the rate he is with a pitch that is very hard to control is not likely.

[jacksonianmarch]

You may end up being right, but Buch has looked "done" about 5 times in his career but bounced back to do well and even very well several times. This may be the end of the yo-yo, but then again, it may not be.

 

When Clay looked done in 2014, his FIP and xFIP were much better than his actual ERA. He's been mediocre at times, brilliant at times and for one season, very unlucky. This yr, he is actually lucky to be as bad as he's been. Big difference to me. I wonder if he is just being the pouty little bitch he is and needs a change of scenery

[moonslav59]

When Clay looked done in 2014, his FIP and xFIP were much better than his actual ERA. He's been mediocre at times, brilliant at times and for one season, very unlucky. This yr, he is actually lucky to be as bad as he's been. Big difference to me. I wonder if he is just being the pouty little bitch he is and needs a change of scenery

 

I certainly see your point. Buch looks awful and his peripherals do too. His xFIP is his worst ever, but my point is that his history has shown massive ups and downs, and there is a significant chance he still has an up spike at some point soon.

 

His xFIP has also looked worse than his ERA in good times as well, but even his xFIP or FIP- and ERA- have been all ovber the map.

 

His ERA- is actually the same as 2014 (133) and worse than his 2008 season (150).

 

Here's alook at his ups and downs

 

Year ERA- FIP-

2007 34 64

2008 150 114

2009 90 108

2010 54 88

2011 82 109

2012 107 115

2013 42 72

2014 133 108

2015 77 67

2016 133 139

 

Buch has been textbook yo-yo. I'm not projecting an up spike, but looking at his career trends, I certainly would not bet against one.

 

I see no evidence he has "regained" his form, but he's look awful so many times over his career, then seemingly all at once, looks like superman, that I still have a glimmer of hope with him.

 

I'm not sure how much longer we can put him out there in hope that glimmer turns to a bright flame, but as of right now, I don't see many other promising choices within our system.

[moonslav59]

xFIP vs ERA differentials with Buch

 

2007 -2.11 (ERA lower than xFIP)

2008 +2.51

2009 +0.17

2010 -1.74

2011 -0.80

2012 +0.13

2013 -1.67

2014 +1.30

2015 -0.04

2016 +0.47

 

His 5.36 xFIP is his worst of his career His second worst is a distant 4.43 in 2012, so I share your concern. His GB% (39%) is his worst since 2007 (38%). His HR/FB is worse than any year except 2007 and 2008.

 

I'm not predicting greatness or even decency, but I am saying based on his ups and downs, there's hope for an upswing. The one bad thing about his trends is that he rarely has a bad first half and great second half or vice versa. He's usually bad all year or good all year (unless he gets hurt and it's just for a half year.

 

Here's his last 5 SIERAs (note how each year is usually at least 50 points higher or lower than the previous or later year):

 

4.46> 3.59> 4.02> 3.35> 5.14

[Emp9]

Wow. I didn't think we had a chance last night. Great win. The question I'm left with and it's a familiar one is, Why do Closers, good Closers like Koji, seem to regain their stuff in a Save situation but if it's not a Save situation they'e mortal again? Has to be a mental thing, right?

[Bellhorn04]

Wow. I didn't think we had a chance last night. Great win. The question I'm left with and it's a familiar one is, Why do Closers, good Closers like Koji, seem to regain their stuff in a Save situation but if it's not a Save situation they'e mortal again? Has to be a mental thing, right?

 

There seems to be a psychological difference, no question. But as with most things in baseball it's not a hard and fast rule. The game before Kimbrel pitched 2 scoreless innings in a tie game.

[devildavid]

Time to move on from Clay. Just throw some young arms out there and see who sticks. Or trade him for a mediocre starter who needs a new home. Clay is well past his expiration date in a Red Sox uniform.

[moonslav59]

Time to move on from Clay. Just throw some young arms out there and see who sticks. Or trade him for a mediocre starter who needs a new home. Clay is well past his expiration date in a Red Sox uniform.

 

I've been one of Buch's greatest supporters over the years, but after today, I'm done with even trying to defend even a glimmer of hope that he might possibly even begin to regain even a fraction of last year's form.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

I watched Henry Owens today at Pawtucket and he was abysmal. Not the answer. Topped out at 88 and couldn't find the zone at all.

[moonslav59]

We started the season thinking Price, Porcello, ERod and either Kelly or Buch would make a solid 4. We figured that between the lesser of Buch and Kelly and Wright, Owens, Johnson, Elias and others we'd find one decent 5th slot pitcher.

 

I've never been a fan of quantity over quality, but Wright did come through. I guess we shouldn't be too surprised both Kelly and Buch stunk up the place, but combined with ERod's injury and struggles, we are now in deep trouble.

 

Some of us have been saying we needed another quality starter from day one, so it's not hindsight complaining here, but it's going to cost us more to get a decent starter at the deadline than it would have last winter.

 

[Spudboy]

But this is two years into this fiasco of a rotation.

 

It won't end soon, either.

[Bellhorn04]

Some of us have been saying we needed another quality starter from day one, so it's not hindsight complaining here, but it's going to cost us more to get a decent starter at the deadline than it would have last winter.

 

The way things are going, acquiring a starter at the deadline will be a non-issue.

[moonslav59]

The way things are going, acquiring a starter at the deadline will be a non-issue.

 

True. We could be sellers at this rate.

[moonslav59]

Here's a look at some "what ifs"...

 

We got: $217M/7 D Price (w/opt out) 8-4 4.68 1.7 WAR (29th)

 

We might have gotten...

 

$207M/6 Z Greinke 10-3 3.61 2.2 WAR (14th)

 

$130M/6 J Cueto (w/opt out) 11-1 2.06 3.4 WAR (3rd)

 

$110M/5 J Zimmerman 9-4 3.81 2.0 WAR (20th)

 

$90M/5 J Samardzja 8-4 3.59 1.0 WAR (72nd)

 

$80M/5 M Leake 5-5 4.25 0.5 WAR (107th)

 

$80M/5 W-Y Chen (w/opt out) 4-2 5.00 0.3 WAR (126th)

 

$48M/3 S Kazmir (w/opt out) 5-3 4.52 0.6 WAR (101th)

 

$70M/5 I Kennedy (w/opt out) 5-6 4.19 0.0 WAR (180th)

 

$32M/2 J Lackey 7-4 3.29 2.0 WAR (23rd)

 

$36M/3 J A Happ 9-3 3.42 1.1 WAR (68th)

 

$16M/2 M Pelfrey 1-7 5.19 0.0 WAR (186th)

 

$7.25M/1 B Colon 6-3 3.05 1.5 WAR (42nd)

 

$7.0M/1 D Fister 8-3 3.21 0.7 WAR (87th)

 

$6.0M/1 R Hill 8-3 2.25 2.0 WAR (17th)

 

$11.5M/2 C Young 1-7 7.07 -1.2 WAR 232 out of 232!)

 

$30M/6 Y Sierra n/a

 

$5.0M C Lewis 6-1 3.21 1.3 WAR (55th)

 

$25M/8 K Maeda 6-5 2.91 1.9 WAR (25th)

 

$4.25M/1 T Cahil n/a

 

$4.0M/1 J Blanton n/a

 

$3.0M/1 M Latos 4-2 4.62 0.0 WAR (173rd)

 

$2.5M/1 B Norris 2-5 5.80 0.3 WAR (130th)

 

$2.5M/1 T Lincecum 1-1 5.00 0.0 WAR (184th)

 

$2.0M/1 A Simon 2-6 8.77 -0.7 WAR (229th)

 

$2.0M/1 R Vogelsong 0-0 1.29 0.2 WAR (146th)

 

$1.7M H Noesi n/a

 

$1.5M B Beachy n/a

 

$1.5M J Turner n/a

 

$1.0M/1 G Floyd n/a

 

Note: Cole Hamels is 8-1 2.79 0.8 WAR (82nd) & Jamie Shields 2-9 6.22 0.0 WAR (183rd) and Shelby Miller 2-7 6.79 -0.5 (225th)

 

Worst Sox:

Buch 2-6 6.28 -0.3 WAR (220th out of 232) B4 today

Owens 0-0 5.11 -0.3 WAR (217th)

ERod 1-2 6.41 -0.3 WAR (215th)

Elias 0.1 15.75 -0.2 WAR (210th)

Kelly 2-0 8.46 -0.2 WAR (206th)

O'Sullivan 1-0 7.84 0.0 WAR (166th)

 

Note: we have 5 of the worst 26 pitchers by WAR out of 232 SP'ers with 0.1 IP +.

 

Some winners and some losers on this list for sure!

 

[mvp 78]

It's time now to cut bait with Clay? Nope. It should have been done in the offseason.

[Slasher9]

i thought he threw the ball pretty well after the 1st inning. about what i would expect from a #5 SP.

[Bellhorn04]

i thought he threw the ball pretty well after the 1st inning. about what i would expect from a #5 SP.

 

The game was over after the 1st inning. 4 earned runs, 7 hits and 5 walks in 5.1 IP - you can get that from a lot of stiffs. Clay is doing nothing with this final chance.

[Slasher9]

The game was over after the 1st inning. 4 earned runs, 7 hits and 5 walks in 5.1 IP - you can get that from a lot of stiffs. Clay is doing nothing with this final chance.

 

agreed. cannot argue with that HFX.

[a700hitter]

Time to move on from Clay. Just throw some young arms out there and see who sticks. Or trade him for a mediocre starter who needs a new home. Clay is well past his expiration date in a Red Sox uniform.

We don't have any.

[a700hitter]

The game was over after the 1st inning. 4 earned runs, 7 hits and 5 walks in 5.1 IP - you can get that from a lot of stiffs. Clay is doing nothing with this final chance.

In the words of Warner Wolf, "you could have turned off your sets right there."

[a700hitter]

The way things are going, acquiring a starter at the deadline will be a non-issue.

The whining will start any day now about the high cost of acquiring pitching.

[mvp 78]

The whining will start any day now about the high cost of acquiring pitching.

 

That's why you don't wait until the trade deadline to make your moves. Making a trade when the other team has you over a barrel is bad business.

 

GET PITCHING IN THE OFFSEASON YOU DUMMIES!