A Realistic View at 2016

[mvp 78]

With a few Caveats such as Pablo Sandoval, there's an ever shrinking body of evidence against Ben C. being a horrible GM.

 

Really?

 

He let Lester and Lackey go.

 

He had 3 last place finishes under his watch.

 

He was a player development guy who was unable to develop any pitchers.

 

He wasn't "horrible," but he wasn't much more than mediocre.

[Hugh2]

Really?

 

He let Lester and Lackey go.

 

He had 3 last place finishes under his watch.

 

He was a player development guy who was unable to develop any pitchers.

 

He wasn't "horrible," but he wasn't much more than mediocre.

 

Well he inherited the 2012 club, and won it all in 2013. The 2014 team that was the same team that won it ALL in 2013. He blew up that team and made many of the moves that make up the team today. Including the preservation of guys such as JBJ, Bogaerts, Betts and he Traded for what amounts to 40% of our rotation today in Porcello and Erod. Also, Porcello was indirectly traded for Lester who is having about as good a year for about 1/2 the money. If you go back to one of his earlier trades for Stephen Wright then He's responsible for 3/5 of our rotation in Porcello/EROD/Wright. He brought in key guys like Napoli, Drew, Koji, Victorino, and despite pressure held onto the farm. And if you want to credit Epstein for those farm guys remember he was also the assistant GM during that time and still had a lot to do with bringing them into the system but guys like Hanley, Porcello, Wrigtht, Koji, EROD, and Holt have all been a part of this team this year and will be key going down the stretch. He also drafted Benintendi, so his finger prints are all over this current team too.

 

Not saying he's perfect, never did.

Edited September 1, 2016 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[SoxnCycles]

Well he inherited the 2012 club, and won it all in 2013. The 2014 team that was the same team that won it ALL in 2013. He blew up that team and made many of the moves that make up the team today. Including the preservation of guys such as JBJ, Bogaerts, Betts and he Traded for what amounts to 40% of our rotation today in Porcello and Erod. Also, Porcello was indirectly traded for Lester who is having about as good a year for about 1/2 the money. If you go back to one of his earlier trades for Stephen Wright then He's responsible for 3/5 of our rotation in Porcello/EROD/Wright. He brought in key guys like Napoli, Drew, Koji, Victorino, and despite pressure held onto the farm. And if you want to credit Epstein for those farm guys remember he was also the assistant GM during that time and still had a lot to do with bringing them into the system but guys like Hanley, Porcello, Wrigtht, Koji, EROD, and Holt have all been a part of this team this year and will be key going down the stretch. He also drafted Benintendi, so his finger prints are all over this current team too.

 

Not saying he's perfect, never did.

 

But then again, who needs common sense...

[moonslav59]

Theo did a great job for us, but I think that might be clouding our remembrance of how badly he left the roster and budget for Ben.

 

Ben made some mistakes, for sure, but he did build up a massive farm. The pitching aspect has not gotten a chance to prove itself, and Espi is now gone.

[User Name]

Well he inherited the 2012 club, and won it all in 2013. The 2014 team that was the same team that won it ALL in 2013. He blew up that team and made many of the moves that make up the team today. Including the preservation of guys such as JBJ, Bogaerts, Betts and he Traded for what amounts to 40% of our rotation today in Porcello and Erod. Also, Porcello was indirectly traded for Lester who is having about as good a year for about 1/2 the money. If you go back to one of his earlier trades for Stephen Wright then He's responsible for 3/5 of our rotation in Porcello/EROD/Wright. He brought in key guys like Napoli, Drew, Koji, Victorino, and despite pressure held onto the farm. And if you want to credit Epstein for those farm guys remember he was also the assistant GM during that time and still had a lot to do with bringing them into the system but guys like Hanley, Porcello, Wrigtht, Koji, EROD, and Holt have all been a part of this team this year and will be key going down the stretch. He also drafted Benintendi, so his finger prints are all over this current team too.

 

Not saying he's perfect, never did.

 

I wholeheartedly agree with this. I also think the Hanley/Panda combined signings were moves fashioned from people above Ben's pay grades. That said, his record with FA's and reluctance to spend prospect capital were significant weaknesses. Overall, I think Ben was pretty good.

[sk7326]

I wholeheartedly agree with this. I also think the Hanley/Panda combined signings were moves fashioned from people above Ben's pay grades. That said, his record with FA's and reluctance to spend prospect capital were significant weaknesses. Overall, I think Ben was pretty good.

 

And people liked working for him - a lot of the guys who stayed under Epstein stayed with Cherington ... some left for bigger gigs, but a lot of guys (I read) turned down promotions to stay in Boston. I suspect if a team like the Twins hires him, they will be happy with the outcome.

[moonslav59]

I have to believe upper management was onboard with I called Ben's "5 year plan"- basically saving most of the prospects, trading away Lester & Co., etc...

 

Where he lost traction with management is when Pablo and HanRam didn't keep us out of the last place. Surely, they realized we couldn't win it all last year with that staff. Maybe Ben didn't ask to outbid teams for Scherzer or Lester. If he did, but was refused, but then DD was allowed to sign price, I'm not sure the blame is being properly placed. We may never know what Ben's role was in the FA signings or lack of signings.

 

I am glad he kept the kids. I doubt we'd have won with Scherzer anyway, even if we had traded Margot, Guerra and Espi a year or two earlier for a big poiece that worked..

 

[S5Dewey]

Theo did a great job for us, but I think that might be clouding our remembrance of how badly he left the roster and budget for Ben.

 

Ben made some mistakes, for sure, but he did build up a massive farm. The pitching aspect has not gotten a chance to prove itself, and Espi is now gone.

 

Well, dammit, he SHOULD have left a massive farm! Two consecutive last place finishes will usually help a team's farm system, and Ben let the team wallow in last place while hoarding these prospects.

 

I mean, I'm glad we've got prospects like Benintendi and Groome, but lets not give Ben too much credit for it unless you think that was his master plan, to finish last a few years in a row to build a core group of young outstanding players.

[moonslav59]

Well, dammit, he SHOULD have left a massive farm! Two consecutive last place finishes will usually help a team's farm system, and Ben let the team wallow in last place while hoarding these prospects.

 

I mean, I'm glad we've got prospects like Benintendi and Groome, but lets not give Ben too much credit for it unless you think that was his master plan, to finish last a few years in a row to build a core group of young outstanding players.

 

Even if you take away the top draft picks (Tball, Beni and Groome), he left us a boatload of top talent on the farm from A to AA.

[Hugh2]

Well, dammit, he SHOULD have left a massive farm! Two consecutive last place finishes will usually help a team's farm system, and Ben let the team wallow in last place while hoarding these prospects.

 

I mean, I'm glad we've got prospects like Benintendi and Groome, but lets not give Ben too much credit for it unless you think that was his master plan, to finish last a few years in a row to build a core group of young outstanding players.

 

Lets analyze his 4 years:

 

2012: inherited team. shed over $250 in payroll and used it to acquire Napoli/Victorino/Drew/Koji.

 

2013: results from last years move result in WS win.

 

2014: same team he built that won it all finishes last, even if you don't excuse him for the under performances and injuries it's still worth it 100 out of 100 times.

 

2015: does not finish year with the system. However the team that he largely built finished strong at 32-12 down the stretch which has carried over into a contender this year.

 

Without even mentioning the prospects he had his fingerprints on under Epstein Ben C. is responsible for the following players on this team, just off the top of my head here.

 

Hanley Ramirez

Sandy Leon

Yoan Moncada

Andrew Benintendi

Brock Holt

Rick Porcello

Eduardo Rodriguez

Koji Uehera

Stephen Wright.

 

If this team as constructed wins it all over the next 3-4 years Ben C. deserves a lot of credit, not to take anything away from DD.

[moonslav59]

Lets analyze his 4 years:

 

2012: inherited team. shed over $250 in payroll and used it to acquire Napoli/Victorino/Drew/Koji.

 

2013: results from last years move result in WS win.

 

2014: same team he built that won it all finishes last, even if you don't excuse him for the under performances and injuries it's still worth it 100 out of 100 times.

 

2015: does not finish year with the system. However the team that he largely built finished strong at 32-12 down the stretch which has carried over into a contender this year.

 

Without even mentioning the prospects he had his fingerprints on under Epstein Ben C. is responsible for the following players on this team, just off the top of my head here.

 

Hanley Ramirez

Sandy Leon

Yoan Moncada

Andrew Benintendi

Brock Holt

Rick Porcello

Eduardo Rodriguez

Koji Uehera

Stephen Wright.

 

If this team as constructed wins it all over the next 3-4 years Ben C. deserves a lot of credit, not to take anything away from DD.

 

Well said, although I think Wright was obtained by Theo. Keeping him in the system and giving him a shot could be viewed as plus for Ben.

 

I also think Kopech will leave a mark- Devers and Basabe as well..

 

He also signed Cody Ross and Gomes and I think Rich Hill- the first time.

 

Carp was a steal - for a year.

 

He moved Miller to the pen for good.

 

Badenhop did well.

 

[Hugh2]

Ben became the G.M. after the 2011 season, the Sox traded for Stephen Wright at the 2012 deadline.

[moonslav59]

Ben became the G.M. after the 2011 season, the Sox traded for Stephen Wright at the 2012 deadline.

 

You're right.

 

It seems like longer. Not a bad trade even though Lars Anderson's stock had already fallen by then.

 

You know what is really strange?

 

After Papi retires and assuming Taz bolts and Buch too, Wright will have the second highest 40 man roster seniority behind Pedey! Even if Buch and Taz return, he'll be the 4th man by seniority (when added to the 40 man roster). Holt is next.

 

What a massive roster overhaul since July 2012.

 

[moonslav59]

What a tough schedule we have coming up. That's one thing that makes our recent 3-3 home stand hurt.

 

3 @ OAK and 3 @ SD should be winnable, but we have not done all that well on the road. Even if we go 5-1 or 4-2, we'll have our work cut out for us down the homes stretch:

3 @ TOR

3 vs BAL

4 vs NYY

4 @ BAL

3 @ TBR

3 @ NYY

3 vs TOR

 

That's 7 vs BAL and NYY, 6 vs TOR and 3. vs TBR.

 

It's tough for Toronto and Baltimore too!

 

[moonslav59]

Leon has now passed Vaz in PAs as our catcher. That gives our top 9 players these numbers:

1.022 Ortiz

.976 Leon

.924 Betts

.856 JBJ

.843 Pedey

.825 HanRam

.813 Bogey

.746 Shaw

.722 Holt

Young is 8 PAs from Vaz as out 10th place PA guy and has an .834 OPS.

 

How about the splits?

 

vs RHPs (100+ PAs)

1.078 Ortiz

.941 Betts

.926 JBJ

.883 Leon

.853 Pedey

.793 Bogey

.779 Shaw

.774 Holt

.735 HanRam

.735 Young

.539 Vaz

(Beni was at .969 in 55 PAs)

 

vs LHPs (60+ PAs)

1.164 Leon

1.095 HanRam

1.005 Young

.893 Bogey

.860 Betts

.856 Ortiz

.802 Pedey

.671 JBJ

.628 Shaw

 

Vaz .771 in 35 PAs, Hill .653 in 48 PAs, Holt .339 in 37 PAs

 

[moonslav59]

What about how the numbers would look, if everyone was pro-rated to 700 PAs (Approx):

 

Leon .350 25 102

Ortiz .313 43 140

Betts .320 37 120

J B Jr .273 33 113

Bogey .306 22 100

Pedey .323 16 80

H Ram .281 27 118

Young .268 25 80

Shaw .248 21 92

 

And people thought our offense was going to have too many "black holes"!

 

[moonslav59]

Ben became the G.M. after the 2011 season, the Sox traded for Stephen Wright at the 2012 deadline.

 

Yes, duly noted. My bad.

[moonslav59]

AL pitching 2nd half:

 

WAR

6.3 BOS

5.8 HOU

5.7 TEX

5.4 NYY

5.4 TOR

 

ERA-

81 DET

81 TBR

84 KCR

85 BOS

88 NYY

90 TOR

91 TEX

 

Starter 2nd half ERA-

82 DET

82 BOS

86 TBR

87 KCR

91 TOR

 

WORST RP'er WHIP:

1.47 CWS

1.43 MIN

1.39 BOS

1.37 BAL

 

 

 

[southpaw777]

AL pitching 2nd half:

 

WAR

6.3 BOS

5.8 HOU

5.7 TEX

5.4 NYY

5.4 TOR

 

ERA-

81 DET

81 TBR

84 KCR

85 BOS

88 NYY

90 TOR

91 TEX

 

Starter 2nd half ERA-

82 DET

82 BOS

86 TBR

87 KCR

91 TOR

 

WORST RP'er WHIP:

1.47 CWS

1.43 MIN

1.39 BOS

1.37 BAL

 

 

 

 

Im hoping Farrell stops screwing around and put pitchers in their proper roles and starts using them correctly. Maybe Joe Kelly can help our pen out. I think he just needed a little time to get used to a bullpen role again. He was pretty good in that role with St.Louis.

Tazawa should be forgotten about the rest of the year unless for a mop up role. When BZ returns he needs a set role. Hes had plenty of success vs LHH. Just because hes had a rough spell doesnt mean he cant do it anymore. Farrell hasn't a clue in that pen besides Kimbrel, And he screwed the pooch the other night with that not letting Kimbrel get four outs. Hed rather let Taz f*** thing up. Idiot. Kimbrel didnt throw a lot of pitches his last time out, and with a day off the next day there was no reason he didnt go four outs.

Guys gotta step up and the Manager needs to make better decisions.

[moonslav59]

Im hoping Farrell stops screwing around and put pitchers in their proper roles and starts using them correctly. Maybe Joe Kelly can help our pen out. I think he just needed a little time to get used to a bullpen role again. He was pretty good in that role with St.Louis.

 

I'm not a JF fan, but I don't think he has many options or choices.

 

My guess is, if he uses Kelly and he blows a game, people will again call for his head.

[SoxnCycles]

Im hoping Farrell stops screwing around and put pitchers in their proper roles and starts using them correctly. Maybe Joe Kelly can help our pen out. I think he just needed a little time to get used to a bullpen role again. He was pretty good in that role with St.Louis.

 

I'm not a JF fan, but I don't think he has many options or choices.

 

My guess is, if he uses Kelly and he blows a game, people will again call for his head.

 

Farrell hasn't impressed me at all with his handling of the pen, considering he was a pitching coach.

But, the injuries to Smith and Koji really hamstrung this team.

It's gotten to the point where Farrell is going to get the blame, no matter which RP coughes up the game.

[Hugh2]

While some of the criticism is just plain dumb a lot of it is justified. Here is an example.

 

LHB are hitting .125/.176/.313 against Fernando Abad. There is nothing wrong with Fernando Abad, Farrell is just using him wrong.

[illinoisredsox]

Im hoping Farrell stops screwing around and put pitchers in their proper roles and starts using them correctly. Maybe Joe Kelly can help our pen out. I think he just needed a little time to get used to a bullpen role again. He was pretty good in that role with St.Louis.

Tazawa should be forgotten about the rest of the year unless for a mop up role. When BZ returns he needs a set role. Hes had plenty of success vs LHH. Just because hes had a rough spell doesnt mean he cant do it anymore. Farrell hasn't a clue in that pen besides Kimbrel, And he screwed the pooch the other night with that not letting Kimbrel get four outs. Hed rather let Taz f*** thing up. Idiot. Kimbrel didnt throw a lot of pitches his last time out, and with a day off the next day there was no reason he didnt go four outs.

Guys gotta step up and the Manager needs to make better decisions.

 

FYI, Kimbrel threw 22 on Tuesday. That's a fairly high number. Had he thrown 12 or 14, I would agree with you. JF didn't want to use Tazawa. That's why he kept Abad in as long as he did.

 

It would help the manager out a lot if he had guys who come in and get the needed outs 9/10 times. Unfortunately, it seems that with this pen it's a 50-50 proposition.

Edited September 2, 2016 by illinoisredsox

[moonslav59]

Farrell hasn't impressed me at all with his handling of the pen, considering he was a pitching coach.

But, the injuries to Smith and Koji really hamstrung this team.

It's gotten to the point where Farrell is going to get the blame, no matter which RP coughes up the game.

 

Our pen sucks. Injuries are a major factor, but the fact is, beyond Kimbrel and Ziegler, JF has no "real" choices that are bound to make him look good.

 

When the season started, I thought we had a top 5 or 6 pen in MLB. Smith's whole season loss hurt a lot, and I guess we should have expected Uheara to decline or get hurt, but those two long injuries killed any chance of us having a plus pen.

 

I wanted JF let go at the end of last season. I do not like his style or some of his choices, but I find it hard to blame him on pen usage when almost any choice he could make is a losing one.

[SoxnCycles]

Our pen sucks. Injuries are a major factor, but the fact is, beyond Kimbrel and Ziegler, JF has no "real" choices that are bound to make him look good.

 

When the season started, I thought we had a top 5 or 6 pen in MLB. Smith's whole season loss hurt a lot, and I guess we should have expected Uheara to decline or get hurt, but those two long injuries killed any chance of us having a plus pen.

 

I wanted JF let go at the end of last season. I do not like his style or some of his choices, but I find it hard to blame him on pen usage when almost any choice he could make is a losing one.

 

 

The biggest issue I have with Farrell is he seems to have a tough time assigning roles in the pen.

The fact that you never what you're going to get on any given night from just about everyone makes the job that much tougher.

But, Farrell should be more consistent with role assignment in the pen.

 

I still have no idea who our "8th inning guy" is.

[moonslav59]

While some of the criticism is just plain dumb a lot of it is justified. Here is an example.

 

LHB are hitting .125/.176/.313 against Fernando Abad. There is nothing wrong with Fernando Abad, Farrell is just using him wrong.

 

Abad has faced 17 LHBs and 30 RHBs, so on the surface you appear to be right, but over his career, he has faced 663 RHBs and 492 LHBs. He was a starter once, so thoise numbers might not be fair.

 

How about this year with MN?

 

86 vs RHBs

52 vs LHBs

 

Why the 2.65 ERA with MIN and the 6.30 ERA with Boston? Is that really all JF's fault? He's using him at almost the exact same ratio as MN used him.

 

vs RHBs: 64% to 62%.

 

In 2015, the A's used him vs LHBs (110) more than RHBs (95) and these were the results:

 

vs LHBs: .859 OPS

vs RHBs: .753 OPS

 

In 2014, he also did better vs RHPs (.475 in 116 PAs to .527 in 100 PAs)

 

Sounds like JF is really not to blame for Abad sucking.

 

[moonslav59]

The biggest issue I have with Farrell is he seems to have a tough time assigning roles in the pen.

 

That's expected when whenever you try someone new, they suck or get hurt. You try to ride the "hot hand" but with the Sox, we haven't really had many.

 

The only things I might have tried differently are to use Ross more and giving Hembree a longer look. Maybe bring Kelly up before now.

[SoxnCycles]

The biggest issue I have with Farrell is he seems to have a tough time assigning roles in the pen.

 

That's expected when whenever you try someone new, they suck or get hurt. You try to ride the "hot hand" but with the Sox, we haven't really had many.

 

The only things I might have tried differently are to use Ross more and giving Hembree a longer look. Maybe bring Kelly up before now.

 

Yup, all of those would've been worth trying.

[Hugh2]

Abad has faced 17 LHBs and 30 RHBs, so on the surface you appear to be right, but over his career, he has faced 663 RHBs and 492 LHBs. He was a starter once, so thoise numbers might not be fair.

 

How about this year with MN?

 

86 vs RHBs

52 vs LHBs

 

Why the 2.65 ERA with MIN and the 6.30 ERA with Boston? Is that really all JF's fault? He's using him at almost the exact same ratio as MN used him.

 

vs RHBs: 64% to 62%.

 

In 2015, the A's used him vs LHBs (110) more than RHBs (95) and these were the results:

 

vs LHBs: .859 OPS

vs RHBs: .753 OPS

 

In 2014, he also did better vs RHPs (.475 in 116 PAs to .527 in 100 PAs)

 

Sounds like JF is really not to blame for Abad sucking.

 

 

But in Minnesota they weren't chasing down a pennant like they are in Boston. The guy is obviously a LOOGY, and should be used as such here.

[moonslav59]

But in Minnesota they weren't chasing down a pennant like they are in Boston. The guy is obviously a LOOGY, and should be used as such here.

 

Looking at his numbers in 2014 and 2015, it doesn't look like a LOOGY, but clearly that was why we got him.

 

Abad had the best LHP vs RHB OPS (.712) on MN, so maybe that played into their different usage. We have slightly better options but not much --only Kimbrel, Ziegler and barnes have a better than .712 OPS against RHBs in the Sox pen- Hembree was not on the team enough).

His .458 OPS vs LHBs with MN this year was the reason we got him. I get that, but it's hard to put the blame on JF for why Abad went from .712 vs RHBs in MN to .917 here.