A Realistic View at 2016

[moonslav59]

Big win for Price and the Sox.

 

Nice time to put together a streak.

 

Leon is getting to the point where it doesn't look like a "flash in the pan".

 

Nice to see Holt hit in August. We hardly noticed HanRam and others have gotten a day(s) off recently.

 

The day off seems to have really helped JBJ, but it could just be coincidence, I suppose. He's 5 for his last 17 with 3Hrs and a 2B and 8 RBI in 4 games.

 

Only Beni went hitless, but he had a BB in just 3 PAs.

 

[oldtimer]

Beni is a rookie with good bat control but he is trying to adapt to major league pitching. Hang in there with him. Shaw and Bogaerts are also in slumps but they can come out at any time. Good hitting is contagious.

[kenmeister]

You know, when Price and Pomeranz pitch well, and Mookie and Jackie and Sandy all rake, we look good.

[Spudboy]

I can't ad anything to the Pap discussion that has not already been said.

 

What a f***ing dope. He could have had fun here and achieved his career objectives.

 

To him it is more important to show people that he is the boss and in control.

 

It could have been fun.

 

What a f***ing loser.

[moonslav59]

Leon now has more PAs than Young this year.

 

He's 27 away from Vazquez for 9th most on the team. The sample size is growing. His OPS is not really shrinking all that much.

 

He could go 0 for his next 37 and still have a SLG% of .457, which would place him 4th (still above HanRam, Bogey and Pedey!)

[S5Dewey]

I can't ad anything to the Pap discussion that has not already been said.

 

What a f***ing dope. He could have had fun here and achieved his career objectives.

 

To him it is more important to show people that he is the boss and in control.

 

It could have been fun.

 

What a f***ing loser.

 

He proves that not all baseball players are rocket scientists. Somehow it seems unfair that someone with all of that talent has ZERO social skills.

[kenmeister]

I can't ad anything to the Pap discussion that has not already been said.

 

What a f***ing dope. He could have had fun here and achieved his career objectives.

 

To him it is more important to show people that he is the boss and in control.

 

It could have been fun.

 

What a f***ing loser.

 

I don't miss Pap. By the end of his time here, nobody had confidence that he'd pitch well in a big game.

 

For me, the "one that got away" is Jon Lester. And actually, Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez should have been locked up too, and gosh if we'd held onto Anthony Rizzo...

[greenwell]

I don't miss Pap. By the end of his time here, nobody had confidence that he'd pitch well in a big game.

 

For me, the "one that got away" is Jon Lester. And actually, Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez should have been locked up too, and gosh if we'd held onto Anthony Rizzo...

 

I can't help but remember his last game with the sox. With all that went wrong in September 2011, if Pap had saved that last game it would have guaranteed a 1 game playoff at least.

[SoxnCycles]

I can't help but remember his last game with the sox. With all that went wrong in September 2011, if Pap had saved that last game it would have guaranteed a 1 game playoff at least.

 

As long as he's not closing again, I'm good with it.

[sk7326]

Big win for Price and the Sox.

 

Nice time to put together a streak.

 

Leon is getting to the point where it doesn't look like a "flash in the pan".

 

Nice to see Holt hit in August. We hardly noticed HanRam and others have gotten a day(s) off recently.

 

The day off seems to have really helped JBJ, but it could just be coincidence, I suppose. He's 5 for his last 17 with 3Hrs and a 2B and 8 RBI in 4 games.

 

Only Beni went hitless, but he had a BB in just 3 PAs.

 

 

Depending on the approximation method you use, based on 133 ABs, there is only a 2.5% chance Leon's "true" level is below .305. (using BA as a binomial variable - if you want to get into the math) Once again, the spectacular - and unsustainable - .459 BABIP is big here.

 

However, you cannot undervalue what he has actually done - which is what the numbers actually convey - basically if he had a full catcher season of this, he would be firmly in the MVP race.

[mvp 78]

I can't help but remember his last game with the sox. With all that went wrong in September 2011, if Pap had saved that last game it would have guaranteed a 1 game playoff at least.

 

Carl Crawford made a poor attempt to catch that last liner to LF. Paps didn't cover himself in glory though.

[moonslav59]

Depending on the approximation method you use, based on 133 ABs, there is only a 2.5% chance Leon's "true" level is below .305. (using BA as a binomial variable - if you want to get into the math) Once again, the spectacular - and unsustainable - .459 BABIP is big here.

 

However, you cannot undervalue what he has actually done - which is what the numbers actually convey - basically if he had a full catcher season of this, he would be firmly in the MVP race.

 

I get the whole BAbip argument and don't disagree that Leon's numbers are inflated by some luck factors, however, there is also other reasons his BAbip numbers are so high, such as....

 

Sox team leaders in LD%

 

26.0% Leon

25.8% Young

25.4% Vaz

25.1% Holt

23.9% Pedey

23.0% Papi

20.1% Shaw

19 HanRam, Betts & Bogey

17 JBJ

 

Hard hit:

45% Ortiz

40 % Young

38% Leon

37% JBJ

36 HanRam

35 Betts & Shaw

33 Pedey

30 Bogey

23 Holt

 

Now, can Leon keep hitting the ball this hard for a much larger sample size?

 

Probably not, so if that goes down and the luck goes down, then he may fall a lot, but if he just drops a little in hard-hitting, with a big drop in BAbip, he should still do well.

 

 

 

[sk7326]

The increased LD numbers explains some of it - but it could not explain all of it ... I remain a skeptic, and constantly happy to be wrong.

[Spudboy]

Depending on the approximation method you use, based on 133 ABs, there is only a 2.5% chance Leon's "true" level is below .305. (using BA as a binomial variable - if you want to get into the math) Once again, the spectacular - and unsustainable - .459 BABIP is big here.

 

However, you cannot undervalue what he has actually done - which is what the numbers actually convey - basically if he had a full catcher season of this, he would be firmly in the MVP race.

 

While his BABIP may not be sustainable, his approach should be. The guy is having good at bats most of the time. He also seems to see a lot of pitches. Last night in 4 AB he saw 25.

 

Maybe he's just another Joey Batts type story?

[Kimmi]

While his BABIP may not be sustainable, his approach should be. The guy is having good at bats most of the time. He also seems to see a lot of pitches. Last night in 4 AB he saw 25.

 

Maybe he's just another Joey Batts type story?

 

There is no way he can sustain the level that he is at, and we don't need BABIP to tell us that. That said, it does seem very reasonable that he can remain an average to above average catcher offensively, which would go a long way when coupled with his defense.

[sk7326]

While his BABIP may not be sustainable, his approach should be. The guy is having good at bats most of the time. He also seems to see a lot of pitches. Last night in 4 AB he saw 25.

 

Maybe he's just another Joey Batts type story?

 

What the evidence tells me is that Leon can actually hit big league pitching, and there is a .260-.270 sort of hitter there, which combined with plus defense is a legit starter and not that far away from All-Star level. What he is producing now is MVP level stuff - and as such, I am comfortable betting the under going forward.

[Dojji]

I would be surprised if he didn't finish out as an above average catcher on both sides of the ball.

 

Remember folks -- we picked this guy up for zero talent. We got him from the Nats for STRAIGHT UP CASH.

 

Leon may go down as Ben Cherington's single greatest move as Boston's GM.

[Dojji]

What the evidence tells me is that Leon can actually hit big league pitching, and there is a .260-.270 sort of hitter there, which combined with plus defense is a legit starter and not that far away from All-Star level. What he is producing now is MVP level stuff - and as such, I am comfortable betting the under going forward.

 

If he hits .270, can put 15 a year over the fence, and defend like he's capable of, that *is* all star level for a catcher, and if he grades out at that level he'll make the all star team a few times. That's basically the career level Jason Varitek lived at, a couple standout years aside, except with a better defensive toolset.

 

You're talking about a guy REGRESSING to the level of the best catcher we've ever had as a franchise who wasn't named Carlton Fisk. I can only hope Leon works out that well.

Edited August 18, 2016 by Dojji

[mvp 78]

I would be surprised if he didn't finish out as an above average catcher on both sides of the ball.

 

Remember folks -- we picked this guy up for zero talent. We got him from the Nats for STRAIGHT UP CASH.

 

Leon may go down as Ben Cherington's single greatest move as Boston's GM.

 

Why? Leon did s*** under Cherington.

 

Dombrowski re-signed him and Leon flourished.

 

Go Dave!

[a700hitter]

Why? Leon did s*** under Cherington.

 

Dombrowski re-signed him and Leon flourished.

 

Go Dave!

Good point.

[Kimmi]

Why? Leon did s*** under Cherington.

 

Dombrowski re-signed him and Leon flourished.

 

Go Dave!

 

Dombrowski would have never had the foresight to sign Leon if he weren't on the team the previous year.

 

Now, if Holaday turns into something, Dombrowski gets credit for his boy.

[Kimmi]

Dombrowski would have never had the foresight to sign Leon if he weren't on the team the previous year.

 

Now, if Holaday turns into something, Dombrowski gets credit for his boy.

 

Good point.

[a700hitter]

Dombrowski would have never had the foresight to sign Leon if he weren't on the team the previous year.

 

Now, if Holaday turns into something, Dombrowski gets credit for his boy.

Sure, DD's Rolodex stops at K

[mvp 78]

Good point.

 

Sad!

[moonslav59]

The increased LD numbers explains some of it - but it could not explain all of it ... I remain a skeptic, and constantly happy to be wrong.

 

Agreed. Even if Leon had a LD% 10 percent lowed and that translated to 10% less hits (which it shouldn't), his BAbip would still be too high.

[oldtimer]

No doubt everyone is saddened by the sorry performance of our relief pitching. Tazawa didn't have it giving up 3 hits and no outs and then Ziegler came in and for some reason thought it was a better idea to walk in the go ahead run rather then to take his chance by throwing a strike.

 

Some good things include Hanley hitting in the clutch but his performance on the base paths was poor and then he couldn't reach a hit down the line. I am not certain anyone would have so reserve judgment on that one.

 

Buchholz had a very good outing as did Robbie Ross. Tough to see the team give away a winnable game. Time to rethink the bull pen?

[FredLynn]

Agreed. Even if Leon had a LD% 10 percent lowed and that translated to 10% less hits (which it shouldn't), his BAbip would still be too high.

 

I think the HR he hit in Baltimore last night was too high

[moonslav59]

I think the HR he hit in Baltimore last night was too high

 

Probably counts as a hard hit ball but not a line drive.

 

[moonslav59]

Before today's game:

 

Sox stats pro-rated to 162 games (per baseballreference)

(Everyone is over 600 PAs, unless noted)

 

Leon .383 22 86 (561 PAs)

Papi .312 39 136

Betts .317 39 124

JBJr .284 28 99

Young .277 20 50 (just 479 PAs)

Pedey .306 16 74

Bogey .311 19 97

H-Ram .275 24 107

TShaw .253 20 84

A. Beni .326 0 69 (543 PAs)

 

 

[Spudboy]

Before today's game:

 

Sox stats pro-rated to 162 games (per baseballreference)

(Everyone is over 600 PAs, unless noted)

 

Leon .383 22 86 (561 PAs)

Papi .312 39 136

Betts .317 39 124

JBJr .284 28 99

Young .277 20 50 (just 479 PAs)

Pedey .306 16 74

Bogey .311 19 97

H-Ram .275 24 107

TShaw .253 20 84

A. Beni .326 0 69 (543 PAs)

 

 

 

And what is to be gleaned from this startling data?