A Realistic View at 2016

[JohnShaft]

Right chaps, new to your game threads, I'm interested in having a bet on this. The bet is games, over or under 9? I'll figure out the value based upon your thoughts.

 

Thanks

 

Shaft

[moonslav59]

I don't think Buch and Hanigan will be back next year either, but I do think Hanigan could be, if we trade Swihart.

 

I agree that I low-balled Bogey a bit, but I'm almost always a little shocked at how little some great players get in their first arb.

[Bellhorn04]

I agree that I low-balled Bogey a bit, but I'm almost always a little shocked at how little some great players get in their first arb.

 

It's just the way the compensation system is set up under the CBA. What's he making this year, something like $650K - and that's only because the Sox were generous enough to pay him more than they had to.

[Nick]

I don't think Buch and Hanigan will be back next year either, but I do think Hanigan could be, if we trade Swihart.

 

I agree that I low-balled Bogey a bit, but I'm almost always a little shocked at how little some great players get in their first arb.

 

If E Rod comes through...do you still see Sox making a big trade?

[moonslav59]

v h

If E Rod comes through...do you still see Sox making a big trade?

I think we may trade for a RPer if Kimbrel seems iffy. I think we will look for another SPer this winter.

[Nick]

It will be interesting to see who is moved as Pomeranz, Tazawa and Kelly returns....

[cp176]

If E Rod comes through...do you still see Sox making a big trade?

 

I don't think that DD is done. he is a worker and will look to continue the search for bullpen help. if E-Rod is healthy, this is the guy we are going to be seeing. he is a game changer. i've felt all along that we would be battling for a wildcard spot - not so much now. Depending upon what Pomeranz can bring, there is no reason to think that this team can't compete for the East championship.

[moonslav59]

It will be interesting to see who is moved as Pomeranz, Tazawa and Kelly returns....

 

My guess is...

 

Cuevas is sent down to make room for Pomeranz.

 

Buchholz gets traded for a single-A long shot (my guess is Kelly is ready before Taz)

 

When Taz is ready we have a tough decision. Kimbrel too!

 

Here's how I rank our staff:

 

SP1 Price

SP2 Porcello

SP3 Wright

SP4 Pomeranz

SP5 ERod

 

RP1 Kimbrel

RP2 Uehara

RP3 Ziegler

RP4 Barnes

RP5 Hembree

RP6 Tazawa

RP7 Kelly

RP8 Ross

RP9 Layne (No options remaining)

RP10 Buchholz

 

(Others: Cuevas, Elias, Light, Martin, N Ramirez, Mendez, Owens, Couch)

 

I don't see us DFA'ing Layne, so maybe we trade Buch and/or Ross. Probably someone else will go to the DL to solve that issue.

 

 

 

 

[Nick]

I actually like Ross better than Layne...never a big fan

 

I'm also high on Ziegler....probably a long shot to get him to leave Arizona next year.

[Nick]

My guess is...

 

Cuevas is sent down to make room for Pomeranz.

 

Buchholz gets traded for a single-A long shot (my guess is Kelly is ready before Taz)

 

When Taz is ready we have a tough decision. Kimbrel too!

 

Here's how I rank our staff:

 

SP1 Price

SP2 Porcello

SP3 Wright

SP4 Pomeranz

SP5 ERod

 

RP1 Kimbrel

RP2 Uehara

RP3 Ziegler

RP4 Barnes

RP5 Hembree

RP6 Tazawa

RP7 Kelly

RP8 Ross

RP9 Layne (No options remaining)

RP10 Buchholz

 

(Others: Cuevas, Elias, Light, Martin, N Ramirez, Mendez, Owens, Couch)

 

I don't see us DFA'ing Layne, so maybe we trade Buch and/or Ross. Probably someone else will go to the DL to solve that issue.

 

 

 

 

So basically we will need to replace #2, #3 and #6 relief pitchers in Koji, Ziegler and Tazawa....technically we have $12m plus to sign 3 relievers. Is there an internal candidate?

 

It's also very possible that Barnes, Hembree and Kelly could easily get better to line up behind Kimbrel, no?

Edited July 17, 2016 by Nick

[moonslav59]

A while ago, when Betts had about the 7th best OPS on the team, I projected he'd end up in the top 3 by year's end. I must admit, I'm surprised he passed Bogey not JBJ, but he is now top 3. He may still end up top 2.

 

1.093 Ortiz

.926 JBJ

.865 Betts

.854 Bogey

.846 Young

.802 Pedey

.799 Shaw

.785 HanRam

.764 Hill (2 teams)

.731 Holt

.583 Vazquez

 

 

Others:

1.212 Leon

.754 Hernandez

.737 Brentz

.733 Rutledge

.720 Swihart

.519 Hanigan

 

How about the last 28 days? (not counting today)

1.076 Holt (25 PAs)

1.033 Ramirez

1.030 Leon

.974 Ortiz

.893 Betts

.875 Hanigan (8 PAs)

.832 Shaw

.791 JBJ

.777 Hernandez (28 PAs)

.761 Brentz

.759 Pedey

.678 Bogey

.634 Vaz (32 PAs)

.572 Young (18)

.500 Hill (12 w BOS)

 

 

[User Name]

Here are A.J. Pollock's 2015 counting stats and Xander Bogaerts' 2016 stats prorated for the entire season:

 

AJP .315/367/.498/.865, 132 OPS+, 111 R, 20 HR, 76 RBI, 39 SB

XB .329./.388/.475/.863, 126 OPS+, 121 R, 18 HR, 104 RBI, 20 SB

 

I suspect the runs and RBI totals are impacted by a 2016 Red Sox lineup that is probably more productive than the 2015 Diamondback lineup.

 

Learn more on the arbitration process:

 

http://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=643:arbitration&catid=44:business-of-baseball-glossary&Itemid=75

 

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/news/mlb-salary-arbitration-process-breakdown-spring-training-2016/4jkawqkczi8i17cb4rhqjxseh

 

Again, I will make a bet right here and now that he eclipses five mill next year. If you want a really accurate tool for arb salaries, wait for mlbtr's arbitration calculator, they rarely fail by more than 200k on players. Also, whether runs and rbi's are a function of team (and they are) is irrelevant because they increase earning power either way. That is indisputable.

[moonslav59]

So basically we will need to replace #2, #3 and #6 relief pitchers in Koji, Ziegler and Tazawa....technically we have $12m plus to sign 3 relievers. Is there an internal candidate?

 

It's also very possible that Barnes, Hembree and Kelly could easily get better to line up behind Kimbrel, no?

 

Well, with Pomeranz not costing too much financially, and the luxury tax set to go up significantly, we could have a lot to spend on the pen this winter. A lot depends on what we may or may not choose to spend on a big bat.

 

I think Carson Smith could project to a number 2, but if we place him 3rd, we should be very well set on that end of the bullpen.

 

I like Hembree a lot, and Barnes seems to have taken a step forward, so maybe we just will need a #2, #4 or 5 & #6 or 7

 

I'm still holding out hope on Kelly, but we shouldn't plan on him to be a big plus anywhere we put him. Whatever he brings would be gravy or injury depth.

[Nick]

Well, with Pomeranz not costing too much financially, and the luxury tax set to go up significantly, we could have a lot to spend on the pen this winter. A lot depends on what we may or may not choose to spend on a big bat.

 

I think Carson Smith could project to a number 2, but if we place him 3rd, we should be very well set on that end of the bullpen.

 

I like Hembree a lot, and Barnes seems to have taken a step forward, so maybe we just will need a #2, #4 or 5 & #6 or 7

 

I'm still holding out hope on Kelly, but we shouldn't plan on him to be a big plus anywhere we put him. Whatever he brings would be gravy or injury depth.

 

We are on the verge of assembling a kick ass team for next few years. Benintendi, Moncada, say big bat in Encarnacion, another SP and couple of more relievers...all doable in my mind.

[moonslav59]

We are on the verge of assembling a kick ass team for next few years. Benintendi, Moncada, say big bat in Encarnacion, another SP and couple of more relievers...all doable in my mind.

 

Even without Encarnacion (assuming we get a better SP'er instead), we look to be "kick ass".

 

You know, there's even a slight chance someone like Pablo, Kelly, Owens or Johnson come back and surprises us over the next few years.

 

I'm not counting on it, but it could happen.

 

Plus, looking at the ages of some of our current stars, some of them could get even better!

[Kimmi]

It will be interesting to see who is moved as Pomeranz, Tazawa and Kelly returns....

 

Farrell said today that Kelly will remain in AAA for the time being. The BP has been holding its own recently, so there is not a need to call him up right now, at the risk of losing someone who doesn't have options.

[Kimmi]

Even without Encarnacion (assuming we get a better SP'er instead), we look to be "kick ass".

 

You know, there's even a slight chance someone like Pablo, Kelly, Owens or Johnson come back and surprises us over the next few years.

 

I'm not counting on it, but it could happen.

 

Plus, looking at the ages of some of our current stars, some of them could get even better!

 

Agreed. This team looks like it is pretty well set for the foreseeable future.

 

Maybe they even pick up Buchholz' option for 2017 and he comes back and surprises us! LOL Just kidding.

[Nick]

Agreed. This team looks like it is pretty well set for the foreseeable future.

 

Maybe they even pick up Buchholz' option for 2017 and he comes back and surprises us! LOL Just kidding.

 

okay, Kimmi, that's hitting a guy below the belt...

[Bellhorn04]

Farrell said today that Kelly will remain in AAA for the time being. The BP has been holding its own recently, so there is not a need to call him up right now, at the risk of losing someone who doesn't have options.

 

Both the little bastards are in storage right now.

[Nick]

I also think that getting Moncada off second base makes sense. He is very apt to be moving quickly through the system. I think that quite possibly Sam Travis could be our first baseman on opening day next year. Ramirez to the dh and Shaw stays put at third. Sandoval is heading toward that big dumpster. Now, with all that being said, a package of Sam Travis and others might just help to bring a real pitcher to Boston to help us get over the fact that both Kelly and Buchholz are essentially useless if you have to count on them.

 

cp176 Called it on 4/24. Lol

[Kimmi]

okay, Kimmi, that's hitting a guy below the belt...

 

LOL No need to worry about his option being picked up. At this point, I don't see him finishing the season with the Sox.

[mvp 78]

LOL No need to worry about his option being picked up. At this point, I don't see him finishing the season with the Sox.

 

If he's on the team come August 1, his option will be picked up. It's a no brainer at this point. He's due for a good solid half season next year. If you add that in with a replacement level pitcher, you get a solid starter.

[Slasher9]

If he's on the team come August 1, his option will be picked up. It's a no brainer at this point. He's due for a good solid half season next year. If you add that in with a replacement level pitcher, you get a solid starter.

 

I love your optimism but picking up the 2017 option is not an.....option.

[mvp 78]

I love your optimism but picking up the 2017 option is not an.....option.

 

Sure it is. Why wouldn't they pick him up. His upside is better than anyone that will be better as a FA. Might as well keep him, unless they can move him for a better guy.

[Nick]

sure it is. Why wouldn't they pick him up. His upside is better than anyone that will be better as a fa. Might as well keep him, unless they can move him for a better guy.

 

stop it. It's the groundhog day all over.

[Dojji]

If he's on the team come August 1, his option will be picked up. It's a no brainer at this point. He's due for a good solid half season next year. If you add that in with a replacement level pitcher, you get a solid starter.

 

Not one more time. How many times have we had to spend other assets to bring in that "replacement level pitcher?" How much raw talent has the luxury of Buchholz cost us? You could make a very good argument that he just cost us the most talented pitching prospect we've had in the system in generations. and this is nowhere near the first time.

 

Get the bum out of here, let him eat into someone else's talent reserves every year to replace the starts he should be making.

[a700hitter]

If the Red Sox agree to eat most of Santana's salary,we might be able to get him cheaper than Hill. Santana would be an upgrade, but he will drive us crazy. He throws a lot of pitches and often can't go deep into games.

[mvp 78]

stop it. It's the groundhog day all over.

 

We are destined to do this forever.

[mvp 78]

Not one more time. How many times have we had to spend other assets to bring in that "replacement level pitcher?" How much raw talent has the luxury of Buchholz cost us? You could make a very good argument that he just cost us the most talented pitching prospect we've had in the system in generations. and this is nowhere near the first time.

 

Get the bum out of here, let him eat into someone else's talent reserves every year to replace the starts he should be making.

 

Don't complain to me when the Orioles pick him up in the offseason and he's in the All Star game next year.

[Dojji]

If the Red Sox agree to eat most of Santana's salary,we might be able to get him cheaper than Hill. Santana would be an upgrade, but he will drive us crazy. He throws a lot of pitches and often can't go deep into games.

 

Santana is actually very durable, his inning count per season over his career is not one of a guy who can't go deep into games. For a bad team he's averaging 5 2/3 innings a start this year, that's not bad at all.