A Realistic View at 2016

[moonslav59]

Now, what fun would winning the division "comfortably" be?

Dog fights to the bitter end are a lot more fun!

 

Getting a 4th starter would help, but I don't see a decent field of pitchers to pick from.

There are a few, but there are also other teams that are looking for pitching help.

It's supply and demand and I don't want the Sox paying a premium price to just somewhat improve their chances of getting to the playoffs.

 

I agree that the cost to acquire any decent SP'er will be higher than I'd agree to trade, but I don't see this roster as being a top 3 or 4 contender, which I think you have to be to have a legitimate shot at winning it all.

 

Our offense and defense are more than fine, but now our pen is not the big plus it was before Kimbrel's injury. Our 4/5 slot starters are horrible to a legendary level. I think their combined ERA is still over 7.00! This area alone takes so much away from our pluses in other areas that to "win now" probably means we need to make at least one decent pitching acquisition.

 

[oldtimer]

With all the injuries we sustained during the first half, it is likely that we will see additional ones, even to key players, over the second half. So will other teams competing with us. So we need to look to quality depth for our field players and add quality arms in the starting rotation and in the bullpen. Benentendi, ERod and Kelly all make some sense now. Young will be back in late August and Holt is probably coming along earlier. It's a bit of a pipe dream, but perhaps DD can find us a starting pitcher without giving up the total farm.

[Bellhorn04]

I tend to agree, but it's not a sure bet. I think we need at least a solid 3/4 slot pitcher and RP'er to improve our odds enough for me to feel comfortable. Kimbrel may not come back or come back strong, and contrary to popular beliefs, a 4th starter is needed in the playoffs.

 

A 4th starter is needed, but not essential to winning the World Series, if you look at history.

[a700hitter]

I agree that the cost to acquire any decent SP'er will be higher than I'd agree to trade, but I don't see this roster as being a top 3 or 4 contender, which I think you have to be to have a legitimate shot at winning it all.

 

Our offense and defense are more than fine, but now our pen is not the big plus it was before Kimbrel's injury. Our 4/5 slot starters are horrible to a legendary level. I think their combined ERA is still over 7.00! This area alone takes so much away from our pluses in other areas that to "win now" probably means we need to make at least one decent pitching acquisition.

 

If we don't get pitching from outside the organization, this team will not get better in the second half and next season and into the future. How do you want to build the team pitching in the next couple of years where the cost will be acceptable to you?

[moonslav59]

A 4th starter is needed, but not essential to winning the World Series, if you look at history.

 

It's not essential to have an ace either, but we're talking about improving our odds of winning.

 

To me, the best way to improve a team is by upgrading your weakest links, and clearly our 4/5 starters are that.

 

My other long-standing philosophy is to try not to rebuild a rotation from the bottom or middle, but to try to add a starter to the top of your rotation (1,2 or solid #3 SP'er) and let the rest of your rotation be knocked down a notch.

 

I realize this is a costly adventure, and I'm willing to part with some very good young players and prospects to make it happen, but I'm not for overpaying out of desperation for marginal players, good players with limited hopes of upside potential, or players with limited sample sizes of success at the professional level.

[moonslav59]

A 4th starter is needed, but not essential to winning the World Series, if you look at history.

 

I hate cherry-picking one instance to try and prove a point, but back in 2004, Derek Lowe was our 4/5 slot SP'er and he played a big role in winning our first championship in 86 years.

 

The days off during the playoffs used to be plentiful enough that teams never used a 5th starter and rarely needed a 4th starter. That's not true anymore, especially for wildcard play-in teams.

 

Depending on how you need to use your starters to end a season, 4th starters may end up starting more playoff games than a 1-2-3 starter.

[moonslav59]

If we don't get pitching from outside the organization, this team will not get better in the second half and next season and into the future. How do you want to build the team pitching in the next couple of years where the cost will be acceptable to you?

 

I think the off season is the best time to build up a rotation, and I said as much last winter.

 

Getting Price was a major get despite the risk attached to signing big-named FAs. The history of success on big signings is not good at all. I thought we needed to add another solid and dependable SP'er last winter, when the price is usually lower and the availability of choices is higher.

 

I suggested several offers last winter that included several highly rated prospects and players. Some of those players were traded for a closer not a starter, but I still think at some point (maybe next winter), we can get a very solid SP'er for Swihart, Devers, Kopech, plus maybe one from Travis, Owens, Johnson, TBall, Holt, Marrero, Dubon, Chavis or Hernandez.

 

Use the avialble budget space to shore up the pen and maybe sign a #4 slot SP'er and I think we'll be fine next year. There may even be enough money to sign Encarnacion as well, if we can trade for a lower cost SP'er at some point between now and 2017.

[a700hitter]

I think the off season is the best time to build up a rotation, and I said as much last winter.

 

Getting Price was a major get despite the risk attached to signing big-named FAs. The history of success on big signings is not good at all. I thought we needed to add another solid and dependable SP'er last winter, when the price is usually lower and the availability of choices is higher.

 

I suggested several offers last winter that included several highly rated prospects and players. Some of those players were traded for a closer not a starter, but I still think at some point (maybe next winter), we can get a very solid SP'er for Swihart, Devers, Kopech, plus maybe one from Travis, Owens, Johnson, TBall, Holt, Marrero, Dubon, Chavis or Hernandez.

 

Use the avialble budget space to shore up the pen and maybe sign a #4 slot SP'er and I think we'll be fine next year. There may even be enough money to sign Encarnacion as well, if we can trade for a lower cost SP'er at some point between now and 2017.

I agree that the cost for pitching isn't as high in the off season, and it is for this reason that I agree that DD should have acquired another pitcher before the start of the season. Either way, it will have a substantial cost.

[Spudboy]

If we don't get pitching from outside the organization, this team will not get better in the second half and next season and into the future. How do you want to build the team pitching in the next couple of years where the cost will be acceptable to you?

 

This should be an unnecessary question.

 

Thanks Ben.

[Nick]

Trade for Hill and try to extend him for couple of more years.

 

Sign Encarnacion

 

Get to the following starting line up C Leon/Vazques/Swihart 1B Hanley (he'll be with us for three more years assuming he's not injured) 2B Pedey SS Xander 3B Moncada LF Benintendi CF Bradley RF Betts DH Encarnacion

 

We can move Shaw on the Hill deal....B Holt is in left, Bryce can relieve him until Young/Swihart returns or call up Benintendi. Hanley is on 1B, B Holt can relieve him as he's done in the past. We now have Hill at 3B for balance of year backed up by Hernandez.

 

Add Encarnacion and Hill...we have money (ie not paying luxury tax) based on anticipated increase in the cap amount, Clay B not returning, Ortiz not returning, Koji not returning at $9M and removing Castillo/Craig from 40 men roster.

 

This is the Red Sox ownership that paid $30M for Moncada PLUS PENALTY of $30M for the priviledge of signing him. Henry is willing to spend for top talent and right now it's Hill. This will allow the organization to hold on to much of their prospects for future needs, ie relief pitching in 2017, etc.

 

We don't have to completely dismantle the team to acuire Hill and he will give us better chance to get into the playoffs. I don't think it's that complicated.

Edited July 14, 2016 by Nick

[Emp9]

I'm not even sure a Rich Hill extension (if traded for) wld be the smartest of ideas. With a career injury manifest, & the fact that he's 36... @Nick, what do you have in mind? I'd raally hate to over pay to trade for him by a lot, and I'd hate to over pay by a lot to keep him here. I'm all for something reasonable w/ Hill though, don't get me wrong.

[Kimmi]

Now, what fun would winning the division "comfortably" be?

Dog fights to the bitter end are a lot more fun!

 

Getting a 4th starter would help, but I don't see a decent field of pitchers to pick from.

There are a few, but there are also other teams that are looking for pitching help.

It's supply and demand and I don't want the Sox paying a premium price to just somewhat improve their chances of getting to the playoffs.

 

If only Clay and ERod could pitch well enough to round out the 4/5 slots. They both have #2 potential, so it's not asking that much, is it?

[Nick]

I'm not even sure a Rich Hill extension (if traded for) wld be the smartest of ideas. With a career injury manifest, & the fact that he's 36... @Nick, what do you have in mind? I'd raally hate to over pay to trade for him by a lot, and I'd hate to over pay by a lot to keep him here. I'm all for something reasonable w/ Hill though, don't get me wrong.

 

DD was decisive with Price and Kimbrel.....He absolutely needed both and perhaps paid little more than he should have.....he got the job done

John Farrell wanted a right handed bat in infield and DD got him Aaron Hill at a reasonable price

Our tired arms in both Koji and Tazawa along with Carson Smith injury left us thin in the bullpen. DD traded for Ziegler, again I think at a reasonable price.

 

Our next need is a starting pitcher. At best, E Rod or Clay B will be serviceable but odds maybe against it. I think trading for Rich Hill is doable. I can live without the extension I guess. If he pitches well and gets us into the playoffs then it would have been worth it. That's why we play the game.

 

I understand Moon's point about if we do make a trade, we should consider going all in for a good #1 type pitcher with longer team control. But that involves giving up bigger assets and the risk is much greater than just trading for Hill.

 

Again, in 2017, I'm looking for C, Hanley, Pedey, Xander, Moncada, Benintendi, Bradley, Betts, Encarnacion line up with our pitchers being 1. Price 2 TBD 3 Procello 4 TBD 5 Wright with closers Kimbrel, Carson Smith, Barnes, Hembree and Ross.

 

I would hope that E Rod can fill the #4 slot....Hill can be a summer rental and Sox can look for permanent solution this winter. Benintendi and Moncada in September call-up will let the team know how close they are to the majors.

 

We would still have full arsenal of tradable assets in the minors.

Edited July 14, 2016 by Nick

[SoxnCycles]

If only Clay and ERod could pitch well enough to round out the 4/5 slots. They both have #2 potential, so it's not asking that much, is it?

 

I don't think so, but, evidently those two think it is.

Bastids.

[moonslav59]

I'm not even sure a Rich Hill extension (if traded for) wld be the smartest of ideas. With a career injury manifest, & the fact that he's 36... @Nick, what do you have in mind? I'd raally hate to over pay to trade for him by a lot, and I'd hate to over pay by a lot to keep him here. I'm all for something reasonable w/ Hill though, don't get me wrong.

 

Too risky to extend for more than 1 year at $8-10M.

[Maxbialystock]

A 4th starter is needed, but not essential to winning the World Series, if you look at history.

 

You can do well in the playoffs with three good starters. But you need at least 4 and maybe 5 to get to the playoffs even with great hitting.

 

So far this year the Sox have played much better at home than on the road (2 games above .500), but in the second half the Sox will play a whole lot more on the road than at Fenway. 18 road games in August and 19 in September.

[moonslav59]

Updated with Pomeranz:

 

Under contract for 2017 (7 players):

$30M Price, $22M H. Ramirez, $20.6M Porcello, $19M Sandoval, $13.75M Pedroia, $10.5M Kimbrell, $6.5M Young.

TOTAL: $123.35M

 

(Note: Castillo's$10.25M Castillo and Craig's $6.2M contracts do not count on the luxury tax budget, if they remains off the 40 man roster.)

 

Options ( 2 players): $13.5M Buchholz and $3.75M Hannigan

TOTAL: $17.25M

 

Arbs (9 players):

Bogaerts:$650K > ~$3.5M (1st of 3)

Bradley: $546K > ~$2.7M (1 of 4)

Pomeranz $1.35M> ~$3.0M (2 of 3)

Kelly: $2.6M>$2.5M (2 of 3 arbs)

Ross: $1.25M> $1.5M (2 of 3)

Holt: $606K > $1M (1 of 3)

Leon: $minor > $800K (1 of 3)

Layne: $564K> $700K (1 of 4)

Rutledge: $minor> $700K (1 of 3)

Workman: $540K > $600K (1 of 3)

TOTAL ARBS: ~$17M

 

TOTAL of 18 players: ~$158M ($141M without Buch and Hanigan)

 

The 22 other players on the current 40 man roster (listed by seniority on the roster): Wright, Vazquez, Brentz, Betts, Hembree, Barnes, Coyle, Swihart, Shaw, E Rodriguez, Marrero, N Ramirez, B Johnson, Owens, Jerez, Light, Hernandez, Carson, Elias, Cuevas & LaMarre

TOTAL: ~$12M

 

Grand Total: $170M or $153M (No Buch/Hanigan)

 

Now, add the $11M for player benefits and our Luxury Tax Total is...

 

$181M or $163M

 

That leaves us with about $9M to $26M to spend without going over the luxury limit as it is right now ($189M), however, the limit is expected to rise to over $200M and perhaps closer to $210M.

 

That would mean we'll have between $20M and $30M, or if we dump Buch and Hanigan between $36M and $46M to spend on added salary and be close to the limit. That may appear like a lot of money, but finding a replacement for Papi (DH, 3B, LF or 1B) will not come cheap. We will probably also need a solid number 2 SP'er and at least 2 quality RP'ers to replace Uehara and Tazawa.

 

 

 

[User Name]

Bogaerts will make a hell of a lot more than 3.5 mill with his two platform pre-arb years.

[moonslav59]

Bogaerts will make a hell of a lot more than 3.5 mill with his two platform pre-arb years.

 

Yeah, I'm not an expert on arb projections, but often players get much less on their first arb year.

[S5Dewey]

Bogaerts will make a hell of a lot more than 3.5 mill with his two platform pre-arb years.

 

Given the way arbitration is conducted it'll be interesting to see what Bora$ has for an arb figure for Bogaerts. IMO the whole procedure is a game of chicken. The player has to be careful to not set the price so high that the arbitrator rules against him, but at the same time the team has to have a price high enough to not offend the player if the arbitrator rules in favor of the team.

 

My guess is that Bora$ will set a figure at ~$6M and the Sox will be at ~$3.5M. $6M is a bargain for Bogaerts but it would be risky for XB to set his price much higher.

[Bellhorn04]

Given the way arbitration is conducted it'll be interesting to see what Bora$ has for an arb figure for Bogaerts. IMO the whole procedure is a game of chicken. The player has to be careful to not set the price so high that the arbitrator rules against him, but at the same time the team has to have a price high enough to not offend the player if the arbitrator rules in favor of the team.

 

My guess is that Bora$ will set a figure at ~$6M and the Sox will be at ~$3.5M. $6M is a bargain for Bogaerts but it would be risky for XB to set his price much higher.

 

Most of the arb numbers are based on precedents, right?

[moonslav59]

Given the way arbitration is conducted it'll be interesting to see what Bora$ has for an arb figure for Bogaerts. IMO the whole procedure is a game of chicken. The player has to be careful to not set the price so high that the arbitrator rules against him, but at the same time the team has to have a price high enough to not offend the player if the arbitrator rules in favor of the team.

 

My guess is that Bora$ will set a figure at ~$6M and the Sox will be at ~$3.5M. $6M is a bargain for Bogaerts but it would be risky for XB to set his price much higher.

 

My numbers on Pomeranz may be off as well. The second half of the season could make a difference, and it's his 2nd or 3 arbs next winter- not the first as is the case with Bogey.

[S5Dewey]

Most of the arb numbers are based on precedents, right?

 

I don't think it was intended that way when the process was set up, but without doing the research I think you're right. Arbitrators are reluctant to set new precedents.

[Nick]

Why would Sox offer Hanigan when we have Vazquez, Swihart and Leon? His bat and his health is declining rapidly. Clay B is not in Sox plans or he better not be..a waste of $13M.

 

So we're at $163M. Plenty of cap space to go get Encarnacion especially in view of likely increase in luxury tax.

 

DD is already on record as saying he's happy with 4/5th his starting rotation and hopes E Rod steps up for the 5th spot.

 

2019 will be tricky with Pomeranz becoming a free agent and Pablo and Hanley still under contracts for $40M. In 2020 Xander and Porcello become FA but the $40M obligation will go away. Then Bradley and Betts will follow.

 

Hopefully Espinoza will be ready by 2020 for some much needed low cost quality starts. (just kidding)

[harmony]

Bogaerts will make a hell of a lot more than 3.5 mill with his two platform pre-arb years.

Miami righthander Jose Fernandez earns $2.8 million this season in his first year of arbitration.

 

Coming of a 7.4 bWAR season, Arizona outfielder A.J. Pollock was projected to earned $4.8 million in his first year of arbitration but instead signed for $10.25 million over two years.

[User Name]

Fernandez had TJ surgery and essentially lost 1.5 seasons of play. Neither of Pollock's platform pre-arb years come close to what Bogaerts will end up doing this year , and Bogaert's pre-pre arb year is also better than Pollock's (per Fwar). So yeah, he should eclipse 5 million. The fact that he plays SS should only aid his cause.

[vjcsmoke]

Kopech just hit 105 mph on the gun and we just signed Jason Groome. I think we'll be ok for pitching prospects by 2020. :-)

 

Hopefully Espinoza will be ready by 2020 for some much needed low cost quality starts. (just kidding)

 

I agree that Hanigan and Buch should be goners by this time next year. It would be an absolute waste of money to resign those players.

We have better options at catcher with Sandy Leon stepping up, Vazquez defensive upside, and Swihart offensive upside.

 

And Buch is just a mess. Let's go after some pitching in free agency. It will be expensive but it won't cost us any prospects from the farm system.

 

Quick question for you guys, who believes the Sox can win the division now?

 

We just added an all-star arm in Pomeranz who should contend for the #2 in the rotation, and we're only 2 games behind the Orioles and tied with the Jays.

Yankees are just mediocre this year and treading .500.

 

I'm a believer! Let's win the division and make some noise in the Postseason. Go Red Sox!!

Edited July 15, 2016 by vjcsmoke

[harmony]

Fernandez had TJ surgery and essentially lost 1.5 seasons of play. Neither of Pollock's platform pre-arb years come close to what Bogaerts will end up doing this year , and Bogaert's pre-pre arb year is also better than Pollock's (per Fwar). So yeah, he should eclipse 5 million. The fact that he plays SS should only aid his cause.

A.J. Pollock entered his first arbitration with 13.5 fWAR in 400 career games, including an fWAR of 6.6 the preceding year.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9256&position=OF

 

Xander Bogaerts has posted 8.2 fWAR in 403 career games, including an fWAR of 3.4 87 games into the 162-game 2016 season.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12161&position=SS

 

The fWAR positional adjustment already gives Bogaerts more credit at shortstop than Pollock gets in the outfield:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/war-position-players/

Edited July 15, 2016 by harmony

[User Name]

A.J. Pollock entered his first arbitration with 13.5 fWAR in 400 career games, including an fWAR of 6.6 the preceding year.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9256&position=OF

 

Xander Bogaerts has posted 8.2 fWAR in 403 career games, including an fWAR of 3.4 87 games into the 162-game 2016 season.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12161&position=SS

 

The fWAR positional adjustment already gives Bogaerts more credit at shortstop than Pollock gets in the outfield:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/war-position-players/

 

Arb panels are composed of guys who put a lot more stock into offensive and counting stats, not advanced stats or fWAR. I cited it as a catch-all for general productionl. Also, they usually use the previous two years as "platform" which is the term I keep using for arb calculations. I will make a bet right here and now that Bogaerts eclipses five million in arbitration next year. The process doesn't work as you think it does.

[harmony]

Arb panels are composed of guys who put a lot more stock into offensive and counting stats, not advanced stats or fWAR. I cited it as a catch-all for general productionl. Also, they usually use the previous two years as "platform" which is the term I keep using for arb calculations. I will make a bet right here and now that Bogaerts eclipses five million in arbitration next year. The process doesn't work as you think it does.

Here are A.J. Pollock's 2015 counting stats and Xander Bogaerts' 2016 stats prorated for the entire season:

 

AJP .315/367/.498/.865, 132 OPS+, 111 R, 20 HR, 76 RBI, 39 SB

XB .329./.388/.475/.863, 126 OPS+, 121 R, 18 HR, 104 RBI, 20 SB

 

I suspect the runs and RBI totals are impacted by a 2016 Red Sox lineup that is probably more productive than the 2015 Diamondback lineup.

 

Learn more on the arbitration process:

 

http://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=643:arbitration&catid=44:business-of-baseball-glossary&Itemid=75

 

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/news/mlb-salary-arbitration-process-breakdown-spring-training-2016/4jkawqkczi8i17cb4rhqjxseh