A Realistic View at 2016

[Hugh2]

Lol, couple of posts ago you stated ballpark factors are over rated and now you come back with pitcher friendly ballpark.

 

Do you seriously lack any reading comprehension skills?

 

Yes I said they are overrated, that is not analogous with non existent. If it was I wouldn't call them overated I would call them wrong, false, or make believe. Also the example I used when using the term "pitcher friendly ballpark" was used in such a manner to point out of pitchers have pitched better in hitters parks and sometimes worse in pitcher friendly thus strengthening my argument that they are over-rated.

 

This isn't complicated stuff here.

[TheBabeStrikesBack]

lol

 

Notice the word SEEMS?!

[Hugh2]

I didn't say every pitcher, geez.

 

"A's pitchers always look good pitching at home. It seems when they leave they get crushed."

 

Yes, you didn't say every but you didn't say some either. When you say A's pitchers it infers everyone who has pitched for the A's, when replying to comment about an A's pitcher who used to pitch for Boston and has a 1.65 ERA there.

 

The question now becomes.....which way do you wish to move the goal posts now?

[User Name]

Notice the word SEEMS?!

 

Dat cop out tho.

[Kimmi]

I agree.

I had no problem giving Price some slack in April. The offense was kicking ass and the pitching staff, as a whole, was allowed to skate some.

The offense has fallen off a lot since then. No one expected them to hit like they did the first two months, but they're downright mediocre right now.

 

It's time for the good pitchers on the staff to pick it up a little.

That's goes double for the guy that felt he deserved to be paid like the best pitcher in baseball.

I'm done waiting for the guy to "adjust".

I wasn't crazy about the contract in the first place and expected it to be a drag on the team, the last 2 or 3 years.

I'm disappointed that the Sox can't count on him to stop a team slide when they need it most, in his first year.

 

^^This.

[moonslav59]

There's still plenty of time for Price to turn things around and lead us to the promise land.

 

It's nice to see Wright pitching like an ace, and Porcello having his best career season.

[robert vonhalle]

I agree.

I had no problem giving Price some slack in April. The offense was kicking ass and the pitching staff, as a whole, was allowed to skate some.

The offense has fallen off a lot since then. No one expected them to hit like they did the first two months, but they're downright mediocre right now.

 

It's time for the good pitchers on the staff to pick it up a little.

That's goes double for the guy that felt he deserved to be paid like the best pitcher in baseball.

I'm done waiting for the guy to "adjust".

I wasn't crazy about the contract in the first place and expected it to be a drag on the team, the last 2 or 3 years.

I'm disappointed that the Sox can't count on him to stop a team slide when they need it most, in his first year.

AGREE!you hit the nail on the head.

[SoxnCycles]

There's still plenty of time for Price to turn things around and lead us to the promise land.

It's nice to see Wright pitching like an ace, and Porcello having his best career season.

 

Not really.

[Spudboy]

Not really.

 

Correct. Even if Price "regresses" to career norms it won't be nearly enough to propel this team to a WS birth. For that we need more starting pitching for the second half. I doubt that DD can fix the rotation sufficiently and quickly enough to make that kind of a difference.

[Michfan]

I'd rather not make the playoffs this year than trade young talent for another starting pitcher that may last for 2 years and take all the money.

Be patient..

[Bellhorn04]

Not really.

 

Well, there is plenty of time with 83 games left and 4 games back. But I don't think that's what you're getting at.

[a700hitter]

I'd rather not make the playoffs this year than trade young talent for another starting pitcher that may last for 2 years and take all the money.

Be patient..

Then Ortiz will be gone, Pedey will be on fumes and we will still have no pitching. How many of our minor leaguers do you envision starting for the Red Sox in the next 2-3 years.

[a700hitter]

Well, there is plenty of time with 83 games left and 4 games back. But I don't think that's what you're getting at.

We have until the end of the month. After that you can't make trades anyway. Baltimore will slump at some point. As long as the Red Sox don't completely nosedive.

[moonslav59]

Then Ortiz will be gone, Pedey will be on fumes and we will still have no pitching. How many of our minor leaguers do you envision starting for the Red Sox in the next 2-3 years.

 

In 2 years, Pedey will be only 34. I know, his "style of play will lead to more injuries" argument, but I'm not sure I'm buying it.

 

Here's what sox prospects has listed as possible future rosters:

 

http://soxprospects.com/future.htm

 

Espinoza joins the rotation by 2019, Kopech, Light, Workman and Martin join the pen by 2018. TBall is in the pen by 2019.

 

They have Moncada starting at 3B and Benintendi in LF in 2018 (TShaw at DH).

Travis, Hernandez, Pablo and Holt fill out the bench. By 2019, they have Devers taking Pablo's place on the bench, then becoming the FT 1Bman in 2020.

 

Nobody is trying to say any one player can replace Papi's offense and clutch performance, but I tend to agree with the philosophy that trading top prospects for 1.3 or even 2.3 years of a control on a solid pitcher is NOT worth it.

[a700hitter]

In 2 years, Pedey will be only 34. I know, his "style of play will lead to more injuries" argument, but I'm not sure I'm buying it.

 

Here's what sox prospects has listed as possible future rosters:

 

http://soxprospects.com/future.htm

 

Espinoza joins the rotation by 2019, Kopech, Light, Workman and Martin join the pen by 2018. TBall is in the pen by 2019.

 

They have Moncada starting at 3B and Benintendi in LF in 2018 (TShaw at DH).

Travis, Hernandez, Pablo and Holt fill out the bench. By 2019, they have Devers taking Pablo's place on the bench, then becoming the FT 1Bman in 2020.

 

Nobody is trying to say any one player can replace Papi's offense and clutch performance, but I tend to agree with the philosophy that trading top prospects for 1.3 or even 2.3 years of a control on a solid pitcher is NOT worth it.

That is fantasy land regarding the pitching, and even so that is 3 years away. And it only projects one guy as making our rotation. We have 2 holes in 2016, and our farm system can fill one by 2019. That is not enough. Help is needed elsewhere.

 

I can see Moncada and Benitendi being starters. If Devers just projects as a bench player, he would be a prime chip to help get us a pitcher. What about Swihart? Where does he project? Basically 2 guys project to be in the starting lineup by 2018-19. That leaves a load of talent to rot on the vine. DD has to figure who to keep and who to trade, because our rotation is going to need more than one starting pitcher over the next 3 years.

[moonslav59]

Correct. Even if Price "regresses" to career norms it won't be nearly enough to propel this team to a WS birth. For that we need more starting pitching for the second half. I doubt that DD can fix the rotation sufficiently and quickly enough to make that kind of a difference.

 

Once you make the playoffs, it's a crapshoot.

 

You only need 3-4 solid starters for the playoffs, and with so many days off, the pen depth is rarely "exposed".

 

I'm not saying we'll be favorites with Price "back to form", but we may be AL faves, so getting to the big dance is still on the table, even without any major trade.

 

It's not that big an if hoping for Price to turn it around, and Porcello & Wright to keep going as is.

 

Look at other AL teams. They all have weaknesses and have gone through bad stretches this year at some point.

[a700hitter]

Once you make the playoffs, it's a crapshoot.

 

You only need 3-4 solid starters for the playoffs, and with so many days off, the pen depth is rarely "exposed".

 

I'm not saying we'll be favorites with Price "back to form", but we may be AL faves, so getting to the big dance is still on the table, even without any major trade.

 

It's not that big an if hoping for Price to turn it around, and Porcello & Wright to keep going as is.

 

Look at other AL teams. They all have weaknesses and have gone through bad stretches this year at some point.

price returning to form will not be enough to make the playoffs unless the 4th and 5th spots get fixed imp.

[moonslav59]

That is fantasy land regarding the pitching, and even so that is 3 years away. And it only projects one guy as making our rotation. We have 2 holes in 2016, and our farm system can fill one by 2019. That is not enough. Help is needed elsewhere.

 

I never implied our prospects would fill every hole, but we will have a hole when Papi leaves, and we seem to have one in LF as well. hose two holes may be filled by Moncada, Benintendi (maybe Travis) and eventually Devers. I was responding to a post about what we can expect in 2-3 tears, so yeah, it's speculative, but it was also speculative to assume we only have one useful prospect near ML readiness.

 

I can see Moncada and Benitendi being starters. If Devers just projects as a bench player, he would be a prime chip to help get us a pitcher. What about Swihart? Where does he project?

 

 

I have suggested numerous time, that we trade Swihart (who is no longer a prospect, so I left him out) and Devers for a pitcher under team control for several years.

 

Basically 2 guys project to be in the starting lineup by 2018-19. That leaves a load of talent to rot on the vine. DD has to figure who to keep and who to trade, because our rotation is going to need more than one starting pitcher over the next 3 years.

 

That's all that's projected right now, but I'm pretty certain that out of Devers, Travis, Dubon, Hernandez, Kopech, TBall and others, someone will rise near the top and be useful.

 

I'm fine with trading lesser prospects like Devers, Travis, Kopech... I'm even willing to part with Swihart, but only for long controllable pitching- not some 2 moth rental or even a 1 year and 2 month rental. I'd prefer 4+ years.

 

If we can fill one SP'er hole via trade (not Moncada, Beninegtndi or Espinoza) and then sign a 4th starter FA and a couple nice RP'er arms this winter, we should be a contender, even minus Papi... assuming Moncada and/or Benintendi produce for us in 2017.

 

It's doable, but it won't be easy, especially if we keep swinging and missing on free agency.

[Spudboy]

price returning to form will not be enough to make the playoffs unless the 4th and 5th spots get fixed imp.

 

Yup. I guess that I did not convey my idea clearly.

 

This team is toast without a decent rotation. Forfeiting 40% of your games is a recipe for the cellar.

[moonslav59]

price returning to form will not be enough to make the playoffs unless the 4th and 5th spots get fixed imp.

 

We're in the playoffs right now, if the season ended today. That's with Price pitching like a number 4/5 slot pitcher.

 

Please go and look at the rotations of the teams behind us in the AL wild card race and tell me they don't have as many holes as we do.

 

Then look at the offensive comparison and fielding while you're at it.

[moonslav59]

Yup. I guess that I did not convey my idea clearly.

 

This team is toast without a decent rotation. Forfeiting 40% of your games is a recipe for the cellar.

 

We are 43-36 so far, even with 40% of our rotation being as bad as I can ever remember.

 

You may be surprised by these numbers: team records in starts by....

 

Wright 9-7

Price 10-7

Porcello 11-5

Top 3 are 30-19

The 40% are 13-17. That may be pretty bad, but it's far far from a "forfeit".

 

Now, one could argue going 13-17 was done with smoke and mirrors and is likely not sustainable here on out, and I wouldn't argue with that, but an equally valid argument could be made that if Wright continues to pitch like he did over the first half of 2016, we shouldn't go 9-7 in his last 16 starts. If Price "turns it around" and that's what this debate is about, we can expect better than 10-7 in his last 17 starts. So, if Wright goes 11-5 and Price goes 13-4, we'd only need our bottom 40% starters to go 8-22 to keep up our current winning percentage.

 

Once in the playoffs, an "in form" Price plus Porcello and Wright stacks up pretty well with just about any other AL team except for the Guardians. With our bats and defense, I'd give us a decent chance to make the WS. Remember, we have Papi- the Guardians don't.

[Nick]

We have a core group to move forward and be competitive for next few years....this is when they become free agents..we may not bat 100% but we'll retain few of them.

C Vazquez 2020, C Swihart 2020/21 1B Hanley 2018 plus option year 2B Pedroia 2022 SS Xander 2019 (Sox will go all in on him) 3B Shaw 2021 LF Benintendi 2023 earliest CF Bradley 2020 RF Betts 2020

 

Hanley's contract for 2019 is vesting based on plate appearance over 2017/2018.

 

Hanley's contract will be off the books regardless for 2020 season, 1st year of FA for Xander. That will free up $20M plus possibly Sandoval's $20M.

 

I don't expect Price to opt out of his contract, for better or worse, he'll be on Sox staff for 7 years.

 

Porcello has 3 years left and 2018/19 will determine if he'll wind up being a sought after pitcher.

 

Predicting knuckle ball pitcher can be tricky at best, but as long as he's healthy, you'd think Wright will finish out with Sox as Wakefield did. I think he's a loyal guy and Sox will reciprocate.

 

Rodriquez just need to get healthy and work on his secondary pitches and location. He's too young to give up on. He was rushed last year and again this year due to injury. He looks to

have the toughness and I hope everyone has learned that you can't survive major league bats with just one pitch. Pitching coach needs to develop this guy or hire someone that can.

 

We'll have Kimbrel for another two years if we want. Closers can be fickle and we'll have to see if he has it at the end of 2017.

 

We need a power bat for 2017. Encarnacion will be coming off $10M contract. Someone also to keep an eye on is Josh Donaldson when he will be FA after 2017 season. Moon may disagree but we can afford a power bat and replace Ortiz' $16M contract. And we can pay for a high end pitcher.

 

All resources at some point will need to be focused on top of the line starting pitcher. Swihart, Benintendi,Devers, Shaw and every single pitcher should be available for the trade. Obviously Moncada, Xander, Bradley Jr and Betts are untouchables.

 

We can always find position players. It's the pitching that gets tricky, especially when you see we have nothing in Sox pipeline.

Edited July 2, 2016 by Nick

[moonslav59]

We need a power bat for 2017. Encarnacion will be coming off $10M contract. Someone also to keep an eye on is Josh Donaldson when he will be FA after 2017 season. Moon may disagree but we can afford a power bat and replace Ortiz' $16M contract. And we can pay for a high end pitcher.

 

I think we'd be over the new luxury limit, but that may be okay with Henry.

 

We also need to replace or r-sign Uehara and Tazawa and may need a 4/5 slot pitcher, if ERod never regains. We may also need a LF'er who can hit righties, if Moncada or Beninendi don't make there it by 2017.

 

Yes, we can "do it", but it won't be easy without some sort of major trade for a cheaper, major role player(s).

 

With our record on FA signings, I'm not holding my breath on that being our solution to filling multiple holes next winter.

 

All resources at some point will need to be focused on top of the line starting pitcher. Swihart, Benintendi,Devers, Shaw and every single pitcher should be available for the trade. Obviously Moncada, Xander, Bradley Jr and Betts are untouchables.

 

Agreed. I'd try hard to avoid trading Beninendi due to our big need in LF, and some better offense to help compensate a little for Papi's loss. I also hate the idea of trading our best pitching prospect since Lesster. I think we can get something very special next winter for Swihart, Devers, Travis, Kopech and Holt.

 

We can always find position players. It's the pitching that gets tricky, especially when you see we have nothing in Sox pipeline.

 

I'm all about upgrading our pitching staff from the top not the bottom. That's why I think signing & spending on another big bat might cut into the quality and quantity of pitchers we do end up getting.

Edited July 2, 2016 by moonslav59

[Nick]

Moon, we'll have total savings of $56M off of Ortiz, Clay B, Koji, Tazawa, Hanigan and Castillo. That should be enough to acquire a $15M DH bat, SP and a RP or two. Luxury tax limit should also go up from current $189M. I think we'll see Benintendi called up in September. He can platoon with Young,in 2017, no?

 

It's like with our draft, we need under slotted guys and Benintendi is such a player for Sox for next few years.

 

Where do we think we are this year? How much over the limit now that Castillo's contract came off the books?

Edited July 2, 2016 by Nick

[Kimmi]

price returning to form will not be enough to make the playoffs unless the 4th and 5th spots get fixed imp.

 

I agree that we need starting pitching help, but my contention all along is that we don't need to sell the farm to acquire a #1/2 pitcher. We need a solid #3/4 guy, which should be doable.

[a700hitter]

I agree that we need starting pitching help, but my contention all along is that we don't need to sell the farm to acquire a #1/2 pitcher. We need a solid #3/4 guy, which should be doable.

i would take 2 more Porcellos.

[Spudboy]

i would take 2 more Porcellos.

 

That would do the trick.

 

Kill innings and stay in games.

[moonslav59]

Moon, we'll have total savings of $56M off of Ortiz, Clay B, Koji, Tazawa, Hanigan and Castillo. That should be enough to acquire a $15M DH bat, SP and a RP or two. Luxury tax limit should also go up from current $189M. I think we'll see Benintendi called up in September. He can platoon with Young,in 2017, no?

 

It's like with our draft, we need under slotted guys and Benintendi is such a player for Sox for next few years.

 

Where do we think we are this year? How much over the limit now that Castillo's contract came off the books?

 

 

I'll repost what I poster earlier below, but basically, we'll have between $40 to $50M to spend next winter and stay just below the new luxury limit. This assuming we cut Buch and Hanigan loose.

 

That may seem like a lot, but we might have all these positions to fill:

 

SP2)

SP5)

RP2)

RP4)

LF at least vs RHPs)

DH/3B/1B)

 

Unless we trade some of our top prospects, which I'd like to avoid, I don't see how we can fill all these slots with just $40 to $50M.

 

If we can get a solid, low cost, team controlled #2 SP'er with Swihart, Devers, Travis, Kopech and Holt, then I think we can do it.

 

C: Vazquez/Leon

1B: HanRam

2B: Pedroia

3B: TShaw/Pablo or Moncada

SS: Bogey

LF: FA or Benintendi/Young

CF: JBJ

RF: Betts

DH: Encarnacion

IF: Hernandez

 

SP1) Price

SP2) via trade

SP3) Wright

SP4) Porcello

SP5) FA or ERod

Closer) Kimbrel

RP2) FA

RP3) C Smith

RP4) FA

RP5) Hembree

RP6) Ross

RP7) Barnes, Kelly, Elias, Owens, Johnson, Light or Layne

 

Repost:

 

Now that Castillo's contract does not count towards the luxury tax, let's re-look at next year's luxury budget numbers:

 

Under contract for 2017 (7 players):

$30M Price, $22M H. Ramirez, $20.6M Porcello, $19M Sandoval, $13.75M Pedroia, $10.5M Kimbrell, $6.5M Young.

TOTAL: $123.35M

 

(Note: Castillo's$10.25M Castillo and Craig's $6.2M contracts do not count on the luxury tax budget, if they remains off the 40 man roster.)

 

Options ( 2 players): $13.5M Buchholz and $3.75M Hannigan

TOTAL: $17.25M

 

Arbs (9 players):

Bogaerts:$650K > ~$3.5M (1st of 3)

Bradley: $546K > ~$2.7M (1 of 4)

Kelly: $2.6M>$2.5M (2 of 3 arbs)

Ross: $1.25M> $1.5M (2 of 3)

Holt: $606K > $1M (1 of 3)

Leon: $minor > $800K (1 of 3)

Layne: $564K> $700K (1 of 4)

Rutledge: $minor> $700K (1 of 3)

Workman: $540K > $600K (1 of 3)

TOTAL ARBS: ~$14M

 

TOTAL of 18 players: ~$155M ($138M without Buch and Hanigan)

 

The 22 other players on the current 40 man roster (listed by seniority on the roster): Wright, Vazquez, Brentz, Betts, Hembree, Barnes, Coyle, Swihart, Shaw, E Rodriguez, Marrero, N Ramirez, B Johnson, Owens, Jerez, Light, Hernandez, Carson, Elias, Cuevas & LaMarre

TOTAL: ~$12M

 

Grand Total: $167M or $150M (No Buch/Hanigan)

 

Now, add the $11M for player benefits and our Luxury Tax Total is...

 

$178M or $161M

 

That leaves us with about $11M to $28M to spend without going over the luxury limit as it is right now ($189M), however, the limit is expected to rise to over $200M and perhaps closer to $210M.

 

That would mean we'll have between $22M and $32M, or if we dump Buch and Hanigan between $39M and $49M to spend on added salary and be close to the limit. That may appear like a lot of money, but finding a replacement for Papi (DH, 3B, LF or 1B) will not come cheap. We will probably also need a solid number 2 SP'er and at least 2 quality RP'ers to replace Uehara and Tazawa.

[a700hitter]

It's doable, but it won't be easy, especially if we keep swinging and missing on free agency.

agreed.

[moonslav59]

The other issue is about the quality of FA SP'ers this winter.

 

To greatly improve our rotation, we almost have to do it by trade, We may end up having to trade for a high-priced pitcher, in order to lessen the prospect offer, so we'll know what we have to spend after we take care of our number one need: a solid SP'er.

 

Starting Pitchers

Brett Anderson

Bronson Arroyo

Brandon Beachy

Andrew Cashner

John Danks

Jorge de la Rosa

R.A. Dickey

Scott Feldman

Jaime Garcia

Gio Gonzalez *

Jeremy Guthrie

Jason Hammel *

Jeremy Hellickson

Derek Holland *

Daniel Hudson

Edwin Jackson

Cliff Lee

Cory Luebke

Kris Medlen *

Matt Moore *

Charlie Morton *

Jon Niese *

Ivan Nova

Jake Peavy

Edinson Volquez *

Jered Weaver

C.J. Wilson

Travis Wood