A Realistic View at 2016

[moonslav59]

I guess it's just nearly impossible to keep this thread focused on Sox-related issues without personal intrusions.

[Slasher9]

No, the only term that needs to die is the one currently in the White House.

 

and here we go.

why?

because unemployment is so low?

because the stock market is so high?

because we killed bin laden and jihadi john?

because my house is worth 2x as much as it was in 2009?

because some poor folk have healthcare?

[Jack Flap]

I guess it's just nearly impossible to keep this thread focused on Sox-related issues without personal intrusions.

 

Seriously...WTF, guys? Please take all this other stuff to a different thread.

[Nick]

Moon....

 

I have this uneasy feeling about our bullpen....what do you see as our move at the trade deadline? Everyone with Sox is preaching patience but I think DD will "go for it" thinking we lose Ortiz next year. Smith injury really hurt us.

I'm not sure if we have reinforcements internally to get to the finish line.

[TheBabeStrikesBack]

and here we go.

why?

because unemployment is so low? More people on food stamps than ever before and the lowest work force participation in history

because the stock market is so high? Because the govt keeps printing money, wait till that bubble bursts.

because we killed bin laden and jihadi john? Did Owebummer pull the trigger?

because my house is worth 2x as much as it was in 2009? Lol, like that has anything to do with Owebummer.

because some poor folk have healthcare? While my premium has almost doubled.

 

Too funny.

[Slasher9]

Moon....

 

I have this uneasy feeling about our bullpen....what do you see as our move at the trade deadline? Everyone with Sox is preaching patience but I think DD will "go for it" thinking we lose Ortiz next year. Smith injury really hurt us.

I'm not sure if we have reinforcements internally to get to the finish line.

i agree. i didnt think so at the time but that Smith injury looks to be a bigger impact than i thought.

[Jack Flap]

Moon....

 

I have this uneasy feeling about our bullpen....what do you see as our move at the trade deadline? Everyone with Sox is preaching patience but I think DD will "go for it" thinking we lose Ortiz next year. Smith injury really hurt us.

I'm not sure if we have reinforcements internally to get to the finish line.

 

Same here.

 

The funny thing is, we have arms at Pawtucket I'd like to get a longer look at... Varvaro has a very solid ML track record, Light's control issues are well documented but he might be worthy of a shot, and I'd even give Kyle Martin or Robby Scott a try. We still have a 40-man roster spot or two open, if I'm not mistaken. Need to evaluate all internal options between now and the deadline so we can truly assess our needs...and yet we seem to keep calling up Noe Ramirez every time there's a vacancy, when it's pretty clear he's not the answer.

[moonslav59]

Moon....

 

I have this uneasy feeling about our bullpen....what do you see as our move at the trade deadline? Everyone with Sox is preaching patience but I think DD will "go for it" thinking we lose Ortiz next year. Smith injury really hurt us.

I'm not sure if we have reinforcements internally to get to the finish line.

 

Thank you for re-focusing on matters related to the Sox.

I'm hoping that we acquire a solid #1-2 type starter, but I realize the cost may be too prohibitive.

We may end up settling on a solid #3 or 4 type.

Hopefully that acquisition would move a starter to the pen. I realize that wishing that demoted starter can or will jump start the pen may be a dream, but I remain hopeful.

Losing Carson Smith hurt our pen. I like Barnes & Hembree's contributions, and I'm hoping Elias may help in the weeks and months to come.

I can see giving in-house options a chance before overpaying for outside pen help as being the right choice right now, but if the pen is still hurting by the end of July, we will almost certainly pick-up somebody useful.

[S5Dewey]

We're always going to predict that our team will finish first. Please stop calling each other trolls.

 

Did you delete some posts? Because I only saw one poster call another a troll and it was at post #1037.

 

And later I saw a poster try to turn the discussion political at post #1050.

 

And it's been happening every day recently.

 

"We must like it. We put up with it".

[moonslav59]

Same here.

 

The funny thing is, we have arms at Pawtucket I'd like to get a longer look at... Varvaro has a very solid ML track record, Light's control issues are well documented but he might be worthy of a shot, and I'd even give Kyle Martin or Robby Scott a try. We still have a 40-man roster spot or two open, if I'm not mistaken. Need to evaluate all internal options between now and the deadline so we can truly assess our needs...and yet we seem to keep calling up Noe Ramirez every time there's a vacancy, when it's pretty clear he's not the answer.

 

I don't get the love of Noe either. I was also surprised we used O'Sullivan instead of other choices. I'm not trying to criticize Sox management, because I'm sure they knew more than we did when those choices were made.

 

We do have our 40 man roster filled. We added William Cuevas and Sandy Leon most recently. This includes Pablo and Workman not being on the 40 man roster as he is on the 60-day DL. soxprospects.com does not have Carson Smith listed on the 60-day roster, so maybe there is one slot to be opened.

 

Here are the 22 pitchers listed on the 40 man roster by seniority on the 40 man roster:

 

Buchholz

Tazawa

Wright

Uehara

Workman (60 day)

Layne

Hembree

Kelly

Barnes

Rodriguez

Porcello

Ross

N Ramirez

Johnson

Owens

Kimbrel

Jerez

Light

Price

Smith

Elias

Cuevas

 

I certainly can see the call for someone like Robby Scott (0.96 WHIP at AAA) to get a chance. Opponents have a 0.631 OPS against Robby. Opponents have a 0.633 OPS against vs Varvaro. Varvaro has a 1.09 WHIP. I think we can find a way to get one of these guys a shot sooner rather than later, but maybe some on the list above deserve a shot first.

 

 

[S5Dewey]

I know. I've stuck with Noe for a long time but I'm about out of patience with Noe too. I saw him in Ft. M and he was throwing everything down and away with good velocity - almost unhittable. Now all he can hit is bats.

 

I dunno, I saw that he has a big upside and I thought he was going to be a contributor early in the spring but I haven't seen it since. Maybe the FO is looking for the March Noe. Whatever it is, it doesn't look like March Noe is coming through that door and I don't see any reason to not bring up someone unproven from Pawtucket. I know this isn't a great criteria to call someone up, but How much worse can it be?

[a700hitter]

I know. I've stuck with Noe for a long time but I'm about out of patience with Noe too. I saw him in Ft. M and he was throwing everything down and away with good velocity - almost unhittable. Now all he can hit is bats.

 

I dunno, I saw that he has a big upside and I thought he was going to be a contributor early in the spring but I haven't seen it since. Maybe the FO is looking for the March Noe. Whatever it is, it doesn't look like March Noe is coming through that door and I don't see any reason to not bring up someone unproven from Pawtucket. I know this isn't a great criteria to call someone up, but How much worse can it be?

There are a few of us who go to Fort Myers. TalkSox needs to get us some hats or tee shirts with a large TalkSox logo so we can identify and find each other. Also, it is good advertising to wear it in front of thousands of fans.

[Youk Of The Nation]

Did you delete some posts? Because I only saw one poster call another a troll and it was at post #1037.

 

And later I saw a poster try to turn the discussion political at post #1050.

 

And it's been happening every day recently.

 

"We must like it. We put up with it".

 

If the political crap had lasted beyond three posts I would have stepped in, as I always do.

 

People have been calling each other trolls for weeks. If you recall there was a long discussion about it a couple weeks ago.

 

The next time you post "We must like it. We put up with it" like you're some kind of iron-willed protester in Soviet Russia, I'm going to lose my f***ing mind. For the last goddamn time, TBSB may be annoying, and to be perfectly honest, he definitely seems like a troll. But he hasn't done anything banworthy yet, and I don't kick people off of this site just because I disagree with everything they say or because I don't like them. I can't even pretend to be polite about this anymore. Just shut up.

[moonslav59]

I know. I've stuck with Noe for a long time but I'm about out of patience with Noe too. I saw him in Ft. M and he was throwing everything down and away with good velocity - almost unhittable. Now all he can hit is bats.

 

I dunno, I saw that he has a big upside and I thought he was going to be a contributor early in the spring but I haven't seen it since. Maybe the FO is looking for the March Noe. Whatever it is, it doesn't look like March Noe is coming through that door and I don't see any reason to not bring up someone unproven from Pawtucket. I know this isn't a great criteria to call someone up, but How much worse can it be?

 

I'm not saying we should DFA Noe or give up totally on him, but it seems obvious that at this point in time, he's not the answer.

[Slasher9]

Thank you for re-focusing on matters related to the Sox.

I'm hoping that we acquire a solid #1-2 type starter, but I realize the cost may be too prohibitive.

We may end up settling on a solid #3 or 4 type.

 

 

hey Moon. if the plan is to "go for it" this season then count me as one who is OK with overpaying for a TOTR sp. we have the farm to make it happen.

[Emp9]

I don't get the love of Noe either. I was also surprised we used O'Sullivan instead of other choices. I'm not trying to criticize Sox management, because I'm sure they knew more than we did when those choices were made.

 

We do have our 40 man roster filled. We added William Cuevas and Sandy Leon most recently. This includes Pablo and Workman not being on the 40 man roster as he is on the 60-day DL. soxprospects.com does not have Carson Smith listed on the 60-day roster, so maybe there is one slot to be opened.

 

Here are the 22 pitchers listed on the 40 man roster by seniority on the 40 man roster:

 

Buchholz

Tazawa

Wright

Uehara

Workman (60 day)

Layne

Hembree

Kelly

Barnes

Rodriguez

Porcello

Ross

N Ramirez

Johnson

Owens

Kimbrel

Jerez

Light

Price

Smith

Elias

Cuevas

 

I certainly can see the call for someone like Robby Scott (0.96 WHIP at AAA) to get a chance. Opponents have a 0.631 OPS against Robby. Opponents have a 0.633 OPS against vs Varvaro. Varvaro has a 1.09 WHIP. I think we can find a way to get one of these guys a shot sooner rather than later, but maybe some on the list above deserve a shot first.

 

 

 

Really hoping one of Ceuvas, Owens, or Elias can get their s*** together one of these days and soon. We need some QS from our #5. All these up & down/Good&Bad starts at AAA, as soon as the thought enters your mind that maybe theres a chance... BOOM!

[mvp 78]

i agree. i didnt think so at the time but that Smith injury looks to be a bigger impact than i thought.

 

Yup, adds additional miles onto Koji and Taz's workload, both of which needed to be reduced this year. I'm surprised the Sox didn't bring in a SP when ERod when down, but even more surprised they didn't bring another reliever in when Carson got hurt.

[mvp 78]

Really hoping one of Ceuvas, Owens, or Elias can get their s*** together one of these days and soon. We need some QS from our #5. All these up & down/Good&Bad starts at AAA, as soon as the thought enters your mind that maybe theres a chance... BOOM!

 

Owens is a lost cause. Maybe Johnson can get some good meds and he can provide the rotation something?

[User Name]

No, the only term that needs to die is the one currently in the White House.

 

Oh, that explains a lot.

[User Name]

Owens is a lost cause. Maybe Johnson can get some good meds and he can provide the rotation something?

 

I actually retain some hope with Owens.

[mvp 78]

I actually retain some hope with Owens.

 

If he had any semblance of being able to find the strike zone, I'd agree with you. Until he reduces his walks in Pawtucket, I'm not on board.

 

I'd rather have him in the rotation than Kelly or Buchholz at this point.

[moonslav59]

I actually retain some hope with Owens.

 

I do too, but maybe not for this season.

 

One problem with having 6-8 guys fighting for the 5th slot rather than having 5-6 solid starters to begin with is that the trial and error aspect trying to find that one guy who sticks may take months and too many losses to be able to withstand.

 

I started a thread on "that other site" titled "Too much Quantity and not Enough Quality" that addressed this concern. It kind of ties into my philosophy that it is hard to significantly improve a pitching staff by trying to acquire a "better" 5th starter than the one already in place. I know it's easier said than done, but it's better to try to acquire a solid 1-3 starter or a top #4 type starter and then move your current 4 to the 5 slot.

 

For informational purposes, I'll provide a brief history of our rotation since 2003 (GS).

 

2003: Lowe & Wake (33), Burkett (30), Pedro (29) then we had Fossum, Kim and Mendoza fighting for the 5th slot before trading for Jeff Suppan. We even ended up trying Bruce Chen (2) and Ryan Rupe (1).

 

2004: We had a solid 5 with no injuries- Pedro & Lowe (33), Schilling (32), Wakefield (30) and Arroyo (29). We had Kim (3) and used Pedro Astacio(1) and (Abe Alvarez (1)

 

2005: We basically replaced Pedro and Lowe with Clement (32) , David Wells (30) and Wade Miller (16). Wake had 33, Arroyo had 32, and Schilling 11 starts. We also saw scattered starts from Geremi Gonzalez (3), Papelbon (3), Halama (1) and DiNardo (1). I'd say this season we had 5-6 solid starters, but none ended up with an ERA below 4.15.

 

2006: Was a mess. We did have some quality starters 5-6 deep, but some injuries derailed us. Beckett 33, Schilling 31, Wake 23, Clement 12, Wells 8. The replacements were better than we have now: Lester 15, Snyder 10, Tavarez 6, DiNardo 6, Jason Johnson 6, Kason Gabbard 4 then 3 from K Jarvis & D Pauley and 2 from Devern Hansack.

 

2007: A major similarity to 2004 was the fac t that our top starters pitched a lot of starts: DiceK 32, Wake 31, Beckett 30, Schilling 24 & Tavarez 11. With Tavarez, Lester (11) and Gabbard (7) sharing 5 slot duties, we were again much better off than 2016. Buchholz got 3 starts and Hansack 1.

 

2008: Our top 4 were solid- Lester 33, Wake 30, DiceK 29 and Beckett 27. On paper our #5 and down slots had some nice pitchers (Buch 15, Masterson 9 and B Colon 7), but we ended up having to acquire and use Paul Byrd for 8 key starts. Others used were Pauley 2, Bowden 1 and Zink 1.

 

2009: The experiment of signing Brad Penny (24) and John Smoltz (8) was a total failure, but I can see how management would prefer that plan to a round robin attempt at finding a kid in the system that will produce. I ahted the plan from the start. Other starters that year were Beckett 32, Lester 32, Wake 21, Buch 16, Dice-K 12, Masterson 6, Byrd 6, Tazawa 4 and Bowden 1. I'd still give the nod to these 5th starters and below than today's.

 

2010: Had a nice 6: Lackey 33, Lester 32, Buch 28, DiceK 25, Beckett 21, Wake 19 with Doubront getting 3 and Atchison forced to get 1.

 

2011: We started to get a little shaky after the 5 slot and ended up trading for Erik Bedard's 8 starts. Lester 31, Beckett 30, Lackey 28 (playing hurt), Wake 23, Buch 14, A. Miller 12 and Dice-K 7. Weiland got 5 and Aceves 4

 

2012: The shaky trend continued after the top 3 Lester 33, Buch 29 and Beckett 21 with Dubront getting 29, Aaron Cook (PLEASE!) 18, Dice 11, Bard 10, Morales 9 and Zach Stewart 2.

 

2013: The signing of Dempster was a severe overpay to add stability to the bottom of the rotation. Some say it worked, since we won a ring. Some say the trade for Peavy was a key to winning the ring. Buch's injury forced our hand somewhat, but here's the numbers: Lester 33, Lackey 29, Dempster 29, Doubront 27, Buch 16, Peavy 10. We also used Webster 7 (8.60 ERA), Aceves 6 (4.86), Workman 3 and Morales & Wright for 1 each.

 

2014: Back to being messy, but on paper we had a solid 5 to start the season-- Buch 28 (the ironman!), Lester 21 (traded) , Lackey 21 (traded), Peavy 20 (traded), RDLR 18, Workman 15, Webster 11, Kelly 10, Doubront 10, Ranaudo 7 aqnd Wright 1.

 

2015: Surely a rotation lacking top quality at the top: Porcello 28, Buch 18 and Miley 32. After the top 3 starters, we used Kelly 25, ERod 21, Owens 11, Wright 9, Masterson 9, R Hill 4, Breslow 2, Barnes 2 and Johnson 1.

 

Our 2016 rotation might have been a lot better so far had ERod not gotten hurt. I liked our top 3 on paper: Price, ERod & Porcello. I felt pretty confident that Kelly or Buch would be a solid #4 and perhaps give us a solid #5 as well, but I didn't expect it to be this bad. I've always liked Wright, but never thought we'd need to value him as our #2 guy. Owens and O'Sullivan failed. I suppose Elias will eventually get a look. I doubt Johnson does at this point.

 

My guess is we look outside the system in July.

[StephenCurry30]

What the team could really use is an innings eater guy who doesn't suck. a 4.00 ERA guy who eats inning.

 

Moon, from what you've listed, we could really use a tim wakefield or bronson Arroyo.

[robert vonhalle]

What the team could really use is an innings eater guy who doesn't suck. a 4.00 ERA guy who eats inning.

 

Moon, from what you've listed, we could really use a tim wakefield or bronson Arroyo.

 

what sox needed was to keep MILEY!!!!!

[Jasonbay44]

Miley sucks too. He is having a horrible year.

[moonslav59]

Miley sucks too. He is having a horrible year.

 

Yeah, 5.27 and 1.38 WHIP is pretty bad, but I think I like his chances of having a better 2nd half than Buch or Kelly.

[moonslav59]

What the team could really use is an innings eater guy who doesn't suck. a 4.00 ERA guy who eats inning.

 

Moon, from what you've listed, we could really use a tim wakefield or bronson Arroyo.

 

Well, Wright filled that roll, but even that may not be enough.

[Maxbialystock]

I do too, but maybe not for this season.

 

One problem with having 6-8 guys fighting for the 5th slot rather than having 5-6 solid starters to begin with is that the trial and error aspect trying to find that one guy who sticks may take months and too many losses to be able to withstand.

 

I started a thread on "that other site" titled "Too much Quantity and not Enough Quality" that addressed this concern. It kind of ties into my philosophy that it is hard to significantly improve a pitching staff by trying to acquire a "better" 5th starter than the one already in place. I know it's easier said than done, but it's better to try to acquire a solid 1-3 starter or a top #4 type starter and then move your current 4 to the 5 slot.

 

For informational purposes, I'll provide a brief history of our rotation since 2003 (GS).

 

2003: Lowe & Wake (33), Burkett (30), Pedro (29) then we had Fossum, Kim and Mendoza fighting for the 5th slot before trading for Jeff Suppan. We even ended up trying Bruce Chen (2) and Ryan Rupe (1).

 

2004: We had a solid 5 with no injuries- Pedro & Lowe (33), Schilling (32), Wakefield (30) and Arroyo (29). We had Kim (3) and used Pedro Astacio(1) and (Abe Alvarez (1)

 

2005: We basically replaced Pedro and Lowe with Clement (32) , David Wells (30) and Wade Miller (16). Wake had 33, Arroyo had 32, and Schilling 11 starts. We also saw scattered starts from Geremi Gonzalez (3), Papelbon (3), Halama (1) and DiNardo (1). I'd say this season we had 5-6 solid starters, but none ended up with an ERA below 4.15.

 

2006: Was a mess. We did have some quality starters 5-6 deep, but some injuries derailed us. Beckett 33, Schilling 31, Wake 23, Clement 12, Wells 8. The replacements were better than we have now: Lester 15, Snyder 10, Tavarez 6, DiNardo 6, Jason Johnson 6, Kason Gabbard 4 then 3 from K Jarvis & D Pauley and 2 from Devern Hansack.

 

2007: A major similarity to 2004 was the fac t that our top starters pitched a lot of starts: DiceK 32, Wake 31, Beckett 30, Schilling 24 & Tavarez 11. With Tavarez, Lester (11) and Gabbard (7) sharing 5 slot duties, we were again much better off than 2016. Buchholz got 3 starts and Hansack 1.

 

2008: Our top 4 were solid- Lester 33, Wake 30, DiceK 29 and Beckett 27. On paper our #5 and down slots had some nice pitchers (Buch 15, Masterson 9 and B Colon 7), but we ended up having to acquire and use Paul Byrd for 8 key starts. Others used were Pauley 2, Bowden 1 and Zink 1.

 

2009: The experiment of signing Brad Penny (24) and John Smoltz (8) was a total failure, but I can see how management would prefer that plan to a round robin attempt at finding a kid in the system that will produce. I ahted the plan from the start. Other starters that year were Beckett 32, Lester 32, Wake 21, Buch 16, Dice-K 12, Masterson 6, Byrd 6, Tazawa 4 and Bowden 1. I'd still give the nod to these 5th starters and below than today's.

 

2010: Had a nice 6: Lackey 33, Lester 32, Buch 28, DiceK 25, Beckett 21, Wake 19 with Doubront getting 3 and Atchison forced to get 1.

 

2011: We started to get a little shaky after the 5 slot and ended up trading for Erik Bedard's 8 starts. Lester 31, Beckett 30, Lackey 28 (playing hurt), Wake 23, Buch 14, A. Miller 12 and Dice-K 7. Weiland got 5 and Aceves 4

 

2012: The shaky trend continued after the top 3 Lester 33, Buch 29 and Beckett 21 with Dubront getting 29, Aaron Cook (PLEASE!) 18, Dice 11, Bard 10, Morales 9 and Zach Stewart 2.

 

2013: The signing of Dempster was a severe overpay to add stability to the bottom of the rotation. Some say it worked, since we won a ring. Some say the trade for Peavy was a key to winning the ring. Buch's injury forced our hand somewhat, but here's the numbers: Lester 33, Lackey 29, Dempster 29, Doubront 27, Buch 16, Peavy 10. We also used Webster 7 (8.60 ERA), Aceves 6 (4.86), Workman 3 and Morales & Wright for 1 each.

 

2014: Back to being messy, but on paper we had a solid 5 to start the season-- Buch 28 (the ironman!), Lester 21 (traded) , Lackey 21 (traded), Peavy 20 (traded), RDLR 18, Workman 15, Webster 11, Kelly 10, Doubront 10, Ranaudo 7 aqnd Wright 1.

 

2015: Surely a rotation lacking top quality at the top: Porcello 28, Buch 18 and Miley 32. After the top 3 starters, we used Kelly 25, ERod 21, Owens 11, Wright 9, Masterson 9, R Hill 4, Breslow 2, Barnes 2 and Johnson 1.

 

Our 2016 rotation might have been a lot better so far had ERod not gotten hurt. I liked our top 3 on paper: Price, ERod & Porcello. I felt pretty confident that Kelly or Buch would be a solid #4 and perhaps give us a solid #5 as well, but I didn't expect it to be this bad. I've always liked Wright, but never thought we'd need to value him as our #2 guy. Owens and O'Sullivan failed. I suppose Elias will eventually get a look. I doubt Johnson does at this point.

 

My guess is we look outside the system in July.

 

That is why I read this thread. Great synopsis of more than a decade.

[Bellhorn04]

2007: A major similarity to 2004 was the fac t that our top starters pitched a lot of starts: DiceK 32, Wake 31, Beckett 30, Schilling 24 & Tavarez 11. With Tavarez, Lester (11) and Gabbard (7) sharing 5 slot duties, we were again much better off than 2016. Buchholz got 3 starts and Hansack 1.

 

Our pitching stats for 2007 have always fascinated me. If all you did was look at the stats for the starting rotation and someone told you we led the league in ERA and won the World Series, you'd swear it was ********. Because aside from Beckett the numbers range from mediocre to horrible.

[Dojji]

Now that's just not true. You're looking at a past era with the mindset of the current one. Offenses were much more powerful in 2007, that was roughly the era where the quality start was invented and an ERA of 4.5 was acceptable for the most part. No one had a problem with Wakefield or daisuke finishing with the numbers they had, except that Daisuke had initially been trending much higher than he wound up finishing with. And at the time Schilling's 3.87 ERA over 150 IP was good for an ERA+ of 121, which it wouldn't get close to today.