A Realistic View at 2016

[S5Dewey]

Well, she just didn't have her game anymore. The ironing was sloppy, she kept burning supper and she was just going through the motions when cleaning the house.

 

 

Start at 1:28 -> 1:50

[Youk Of The Nation]

That is one of the best Broadway musicals of all time. The movie was pretty good too, much better than some of the Broadway-to-film adaptations in the past.

[SinceYaz]

The whining comes through the press. Cafardo and others are already saying that the cost of acquiring pitching will be very high during the season because so many teams competing for the post season need pitching. How would the press know the cost unless they are speaking to someone in the organization? It is possible they are just talking out of their asses. If so, they shouldn't be press members, they should be posting here. I think it is more likely that they are hearing these things from their sources. I am reading between the lines. The Boston press has a tendency to be a proxy for the FO.

 

Edit: Plus, the whining happens every year. It is nothing new. Every FO puke makes the excuse when they can't help the team.

 

From what I understand, and I am not claiming to be an expert, this upcoming hot stove will be a poor, poor season for pitching options. That would add to the concern about available arms even now. If there is little to look forward to, the cost spirals upward.

[sk7326]

From what I understand, and I am not claiming to be an expert, this upcoming hot stove will be a poor, poor season for pitching options. That would add to the concern about available arms even now. If there is little to look forward to, the cost spirals upward.

 

No top of the rotation choices. what you'd be looking for is upside (Andrew Cashner maybe) or some reasonable innings soaker uppers (Hellickson). Maybe Kris Medlen another year from surgery could intrigue.

 

There are a number of one-year sort of guys (De La Rosa) who would make sense in a Dempster sort of way.

[Maxbialystock]

Not really a game thread, but an attempt at seeing the whole series--

 

Rockies are up and down but overall one game below .500. They are on the final leg of 9 games on the road, during which they lost a series at St Louis and then one at Pittsburgh.

 

Their first starter tonight, De La Rosa, is a veteran lefty starter who hasn't pitched since April and has struggled this year, only going more than 4.2 innings once, April 14, when he went 6.2 and gave up 3 earned runs against the Giants. ERA over 10.

 

The other two starters, both righties, are Bettis, not bad (and going against Wright) with an ERA of 4.18, and Gray, a rookie who has been up and down with an ERA of 6.75 (and going against Buchholz. Their closer McGee has 13 saves and an ERA of 3.57.

 

Their offense is 5th in MLB in runs scored, which is better than all AL teams except the Sox--despite no DH. On average the Sox score 1 more run per game. Their team ERA is worse than ours by .75 runs/game. I assume that the runs scored and ERA are partly the result of playing half their games at altitude, but it is worth noting that they have a winning record, 13-12, on the road.

 

Assuming Price and Wright are pitching to their capabilities, I think the Sox could win the first two games and maybe the third depending on which rookie and which Buchholz show up. However, the Rockies just took 1 of 3 from both the Pirates and Cardinals, both strong teams (winning records). We will not face their best starter, Chatwood, ERA 3.02.

 

The Sox have not lost a series at home in May but lost two series--to Baltimore and Tampa--at home in April.

 

My guess is that Young will play LF tonight. It's possible Rutledge will play for Shaw, who has not hit lefties well (.577 OPS).

 

How does the weather look? My NOAA radar map sees clouds to the west of MA but which could miss Boston even if they get this far east tonight.

[Youk Of The Nation]

And I can't even merge it with the Gamethread it belongs in because it was started before hand and merging it would cause the Gamethread to be listed as "started by Maxbialystock". So it's going in here, despite the fact that it's a post suited perfectly to the Gamethread. If you copy and paste it and repost it in the Gamethread, that would be great. Was I too subtle before? Am I doing something wrong? I thought I did a very good job of explaining the problem with all of these unnecessary new threads. I tried to do it firmly but politely without insulting or alienating anyone, I really did. Am I wrong? Should I just be an ******* about these things?

[Spudboy]

And I can't even merge it with the Gamethread it belongs in because it was started before hand and merging it would cause the Gamethread to be listed as "started by Maxbialystock". So it's going in here, despite the fact that it's a post suited perfectly to the Gamethread. If you copy and paste it and repost it in the Gamethread, that would be great. Was I too subtle before? Am I doing something wrong? I thought I did a very good job of explaining the problem with all of these unnecessary new threads. I tried to do it firmly but politely without insulting or alienating anyone, I really did. Am I wrong? Should I just be an ******* about these things?

 

The new guys seem predisposed to being treated poorly by ******* mods.

 

It will probably take a little longer for them to become familiar and accustomed to being treated fairly by you.

[SoxnCycles]

Or, we could not have stroke every time someone makes a thread.

 

Just a thought...

[Emp9]

From what I understand, and I am not claiming to be an expert, this upcoming hot stove will be a poor, poor season for pitching options. That would add to the concern about available arms even now. If there is little to look forward to, the cost spirals upward.

 

We'd have to give up alot for a TOTR SP regardless. The difference could be negligible. A team out of contention looking to trade their top SP, looking to build, and covet the prospects we're willing to give up....

[SinceYaz]

The new guys seem predisposed to being treated poorly by ******* mods.

 

It will probably take a little longer for them to become familiar and accustomed to being treated fairly by you.

 

Nailed it, Spud.

 

Or no active mods ....

[SinceYaz]

Or, we could not have stroke every time someone makes a thread.

 

Just a thought...

 

Let's not be too reasonable, sir!

[SinceYaz]

We'd have to give up alot for a TOTR SP regardless. The difference could be negligible. A team out of contention looking to trade their top SP, looking to build, and covet the prospects we're willing to give up....

 

Agreed, E9... We have some nice prospects that aren't gonna see the light of day ....

 

My only fear is the same thing that just happened with Carson Smith ... trade and something bad happens. I do think that the prospects touch that spot that says "What if we just traded away another star?" But in all honesty, we can't keep them all. Can we?

[moonslav59]

So, Todd Frazier, Swihart, Devers and Margot aren't 4 "top players/prospects"?

Throwing in Holt, Owens and Guerra doesn't help?

It;s not like these guys are slouches.

I've also mentioned the idea of taking on a second (unwanted) player, making it a 6 for 2 trade or involving another team to make it less than 6 for 1.

The theory goes like this: trade 3 very good prospects for 1 very good player (like Frazier), then maybe trade another 3 for 1 and then flip those two plus another prospect or two for one awesome player.

Maybe I am too "pie in the sky" by hoping we could have gotten a player like Salazar, Carrasco or Quintana through this method, but it's not like I was asking for a Mets starter or Sale.

 

I also suggested offering Kelly over Owens/Johnson, so that might change the dynamic to Frazier, Kelly, Swihart. and Margot . There's 4 for 1, but I still think any team wouldn't have turned down Devers and Guerra or Holt just because 6 for 1 deals are rare.[/quote

 

First of all, i want what your smoking if you would have gave Swihart, Devers, Margot, Holt, Owens, and Guerra for Frazier...WOW man

 

Maybe I need some of your stash.

 

I said...

 

"So, we offer Swihart, Asuage and Logan to Cincy. Frazier goes to Cleveland. We then send Cleveland Holt, Margot, Devers, Guerra, and two from Owens, Johnson and Kopech for, hopefully, 26 year old Danny Salazar and his 5 years of team control, but more likely Cleveland might have insisted we take 29 year old Carrasco and his 4 years of team control at a reasonable cost. "

 

It was a three way trade with Frazier being flipped to Cleveland.

 

Second of all, i am specifically talking about trading for top pitching, not some 30yo late bloomer 3b whos batting 220 currently. He was overrated. Besides having hit 30hr for the first time most of his other stats are really kind of mediocre to me.

 

Frazier was wanted by many teams last winter. I don't think you can look at his BA now and claim GMs knew he'd hit .220. Besides, he's at ,243 with an .850 OPS. He leads the AL in HRs and is on pace to 55 HRs and 135 RBI.

 

Besides, id rather have Kimbrel than Frazier. Guerra and Margot helped us there. Its nice having a shutdown closer again, isnt it? Do you really miss those two? I dont...

 

I'd rather have a second ace or solid #2 than Kimbrel. I think closers are over-rated, and Kimbrel was making FA money, so I thought it was a gross overpay to basically trade top prospects for a FA.

 

Now, if you want a top starter like say Carasco (not saying he available, just his type)

Think something like this...

JBJ, Swihart, Devers, and Espinoza

 

No doubt, the Guardians would prefer your deal to mine, but I don't think my 3-way trade suggestion was a pipe dream.

 

Thats a pretty fair deal for both teams.

Stud CF with years of control (MLB)

SH catcher with years of control (MLB)

20yo power bat 3b with high ceiling (High A)

19yo phenom starter who hit 100MPH effortlessly (Low A)

 

All have been a#1 prospect in our system or in the top three.

 

Just because we had 3-5 players that would be number ones on most teams, doesn't mean we have to give all of them up. If we only had Swihart and a bunch of Guerra types, would giving our top 4 or 5 guys get an ace?

 

Sometimes I wonder if some GMs think that way: I want 2-3 of your top 4 prospects or bust, and it matters little if your 2-3 are 5 times greater than other teams.

[moonslav59]

Ah, the trade wars are back. With all due respect to moonslav, I am an almost total nonbeliever. Why? Because whoever is available via trade probably isn't worth what we would have to give up. One of the best trades recently was in 2012 when the Sox gave up A-Gon, Beckett, and Crawford--three guys the Sox had previously gone after in trades or via free agency.

 

Yes, the Sox need pitching, but the price is almost always too high and the good too suspect.

 

Several great pitchers today were obtained via trade, and many of them were not thought of as aces at the time of their trades.

That's why I look at guys that are close to being called an ace to look for- like Salazar & Quintana, who now are pitching like aces.

 

I'm not saying it's easy to get one of these guys, especially since they were on teams not looking to rebuild, but I don't think it's impossible.

 

Jake Arrieta was traded, but he had an ERA over 5.00 after 3 1/2 seasons and over 350 innings. How do we find guys like him? I think Baltimore got Scott Feldman for him!

[Bellhorn04]

Several great pitchers today were obtained via trade, and many of them were not thought of as aces at the time of their trades.

That's why I look at guys that are close to being called an ace to look for- like Salazar & Quintana, who now are pitching like aces.

 

I'm not saying it's easy to get one of these guys, especially since they were on teams not looking to rebuild, but I don't think it's impossible.

 

Jake Arrieta was traded, but he had an ERA over 5.00 after 3 1/2 seasons and over 350 innings. How do we find guys like him? I think Baltimore got Scott Feldman for him!

 

By the same token, in spite of the big dollar mistakes, Cherington's best pitching moves may have been getting Wright and ERod for Lars Anderson and a 2-month rental of Andrew Miller.

[moonslav59]

By the same token, in spite of the big dollar mistakes, Cherington's best pitching moves may have been getting Wright and ERod for Lars Anderson and a 2-month rental of Andrew Miller.

 

I had hoped we made more deals like the ERod one than than the Cespedes one during the great purge that summer.

[southpaw777]

"Maybe I need some of your stash."

 

Lol, you would not be disappointed.

[moonslav59]

The more likely deal might come from a bad team looking to dump salary or to look towards a longer view into the future...Here are the worst teams right now:

 

Fill in the names of anyone you want from these teams.

MN:

ATL:

CIN:

MIL:

HOU:

SDP:

OAK:

[iortiz]

The more likely deal might come from a bad team looking to dump salary or to look towards a longer view into the future...Here are the worst teams right now:

 

Fill in the names of anyone you want from these teams.

MN:

ATL:

CIN:

MIL:

HOU:

SDP:

OAK:

Well, If those were the teams willing to make a trade I'd pursuit Teheran, Pomeranz or Hill.

[User Name]

Like Pomeranz and Hill, not a believer in Teheran anymore. Pomeranz looks like the stud they expected him to be a couple years back.

[iortiz]

Like Pomeranz and Hill, not a believer in Teheran anymore. Pomeranz looks like the stud they expected him to be a couple years back.

 

Why don't you like Teheran?

[User Name]

Don't like the peripherals (.247 BABIP, 79 LOB%, 15.7 LD%). The K's are back, but if the BABIP and LD% normalize to career averages, the ERA will shoot up along with them. Also, Teheran has had trouble maintaining consistent mechanics since late 2014 (a problem some attribute to the Braves organization as a whole, but that's another discussion).

[iortiz]

Teheran is not by any means a 2.5 ERA pitcher. In my book, he is something around 3.5. In fact his SIERA which considers balls in play is 3.6. He is a career 3.8 SIERA pitcher. What I like about him is his K/BB.

 

I'd rather Hill and Pomeranz as well but if the price is right for Teheran I'd take him.

[User Name]

Oh I'd clearly take him, since he can eat a lot of innings. I'd just rather they buy someone with cleaner mechanics and with a more consistent run prevention profile.

[Spudboy]

I'm gonna' s*** myself if the Sox make a move to acquire Hill.

[Eddy Ballgame]

I'm gonna' s*** myself if the Sox make a move to acquire Hill.

 

The Sox would've loved to bring back Mass native Rich Hill, but they couldn't guarantee him a spot in the rotation, as a team like Oakland could. Rich Hill had no choice but to take the guarantee at this point in his career, but my guess is that the Sox would be the favorites to land him in a deadline deal. They have the prospects to make it happen and he has the respect from the Oakland front office to give him the opportunity to go home.

[Spudboy]

I know all that stuff.

 

But thanks anyway.

[southpaw777]

I dont think it would cost a lot to get Hill either. Not like. Top prospect or anything, but a couple decent ones.

Any ideas what you guys would think it would cost to get a Hill or Pomeranz? Im not too sure of their worth on todays market. Maybe a guy or two from 7-20 in our system?

[cp176]

I like Rich Hill and wish they had signed him but i sure as hell would not give up much of a young prospect for him. One thing that I am learning from this is that all of the experts sometimes get it wrong. I like the kids and I don't think I would mess with this team at all right now.

[Slasher9]

I dont think it would cost a lot to get Hill either. Not like. Top prospect or anything, but a couple decent ones.

Any ideas what you guys would think it would cost to get a Hill or Pomeranz? Im not too sure of their worth on todays market. Maybe a guy or two from 7-20 in our system?

 

hey Lefty. we are obviously not talking about any of our young MLB talent. maybe a hernandez and light? time to let marrero go?