A Realistic View at 2016

[Bellhorn04]

We almost had Joe Rudie in a Red Sos uniform

 

We almost had him when he was good. Then we got him later when he was washed up.

[Maxbialystock]

I think the game last night, nailing down 2 of 3 at Chicago, the best team with the best ERA in the AL, was a defining game for this team. Not defining the whole season, of course, but where they are. Why defining?

 

1. Starter Owens left after 3 innings, which has happened way too often this season. But Farrell brought the right guys in at the right times--except for Hembree, who had a bad night and almost cost the game--and the Sox held Chicago to 3 runs.

 

2. Seven rbi's, all by different guys. That's a deep lineup, which the Sox have enjoyed all season long, even when Young was in.

 

3. Solid if not brilliant defense. I think of Holt as the weak link, but he made a great grab and has shown a pretty good arm now and then. Ramirez surprisingly solid at 1B.

 

So now the Sox are 6 games over.500 and .5 ahead of the Orioles despite a rotation with too many Freddy Krugers--Owens, Buchholz, and even Price come to mind. Kimrel too even though he usually frightens the opposition.

 

Biggest surprise is that with five youngsters--Bogaerts, Betts, JBJ, Shaw, and Vazquez--this might be the least experienced good Sox team in a long, long time, maybe ever.

 

I give Farrell credit for keeping JBJ in the 9 slot even though he has an OPS over .800. That has to drive opposing teams nuts. But it probably won't last.

[Bellhorn04]

JBJ just might be making our dreams come true. To think there were times over the past 2 seasons a lot of people wrote him off and wanted him gone.

[S5Dewey]

I think the game last night, nailing down 2 of 3 at Chicago, the best team with the best ERA in the AL, was a defining game for this team. Not defining the whole season, of course, but where they are. Why defining?

 

1. Starter Owens left after 3 innings, which has happened way too often this season. But Farrell brought the right guys in at the right times--except for Hembree, who had a bad night and almost cost the game--and the Sox held Chicago to 3 runs.

 

2. Seven rbi's, all by different guys. That's a deep lineup, which the Sox have enjoyed all season long, even when Young was in.

 

3. Solid if not brilliant defense. I think of Holt as the weak link, but he made a great grab and has shown a pretty good arm now and then. Ramirez surprisingly solid at 1B.

 

So now the Sox are 6 games over.500 and .5 ahead of the Orioles despite a rotation with too many Freddy Krugers--Owens, Buchholz, and even Price come to mind. Kimrel too even though he usually frightens the opposition.

 

Biggest surprise is that with five youngsters--Bogaerts, Betts, JBJ, Shaw, and Vazquez--this might be the least experienced good Sox team in a long, long time, maybe ever.

 

I give Farrell credit for keeping JBJ in the 9 slot even though he has an OPS over .800. That has to drive opposing teams nuts. But it probably won't last.

 

I'm trying not to get too giddy over this bunch but in some ways it reminds me of the Core Four (Jeter, Mo, Pettite, Posada) + Bernie Williams that carried the Yankees for some time. And if we throw one more TOR pitcher into our mix next year we could be even better in 2017.

[Emp9]

It is a great situation, a lot of good stuff in the pen right now! DD has certainly changed that environment. If he had a pen like this one with those Detroit teams he would have likely had several WS rings. They had the bats and the front line starters....

 

I guess he learned his lesson. Good for us.

 

Not sure I'd credit DD for Ross, but Kimbrel & Smith make our BP soo much deeper. DD wanted to focus on the BP and besides a few early hiccups w/ Kimbrel I think things should work out well.

[cp176]

We almost had him when he was good. Then we got him later when he was washed up.

 

 

I am ashamed to admit that I can't remember when we finally got him. (not looking it up - don't like that) help - MVP

[moonslav59]

I am ashamed to admit that I can't remember when we finally got him. (not looking it up - don't like that) help - MVP

 

Hard to forget: we traded Fred Lynn for Rudi and Tanana.

[cp176]

Hard to forget: we traded Fred Lynn for Rudi and Tanana.

 

Pretty sure I blocked that one out!

[moonslav59]

What a shame how we dismantled that great group of players.

[sk7326]

What a shame how we dismantled that great group of players.

 

The one book Peter Gammons wrote covered this well, "Beyond the Sixth Game" - a great baseball version of Halberstam's "Breaks of the Game" - profiling the dawn of free agency, and how some teams did not handle it as well as others.

[moonslav59]

Not even sending Fisk a contract until a day too late was unforgivable. They could have at least traded him.

They pretty much dumped everyone but Rice and Evans.

[moonslav59]

Looks like the bats have heated up nicely.

Maybe Papi should consider sticking around another year.

[moonslav59]

Wonder where all the JBJ bashers have gone.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Wonder where all the JBJ bashers have gone.

 

I will happily admit I was wrong if this continues. Good grief is he raking right now.

[moonslav59]

Honesty appreciated.

JBJ may turn out to be a very streaky hitter, so a bad stretch could be coming and may be prolonged, but I think we should all have faith that over the long haul, his numbers should be fine.

[Kingface]

Honesty appreciated.

JBJ may turn out to be a very streaky hitter, so a bad stretch could be coming and may be prolonged, but I think we should all have faith that over the long haul, his numbers should be fine.

 

Even if he does slump.....which he will....he will save runs with his glove and canon of an arm. Today he's 0-2 so far.....but he saved a run with a great throw. ......and as you may remember, I wanted him gone after 2014!!!! .......woops

[Hugh2]

Even if he does slump.....which he will....he will save runs with his glove and canon of an arm. Today he's 0-2 so far.....but he saved a run with a great throw. ......and as you may remember, I wanted him gone after 2014!!!! .......woops

 

and as you may remember, some of us wanted to exercise patients and thought his bat could still develop after being rushed several years ago.

[moonslav59]

Yes, there were many of us who thought his bat would eventually at least get to average. There were fewer of us who felt his bat didn't even have to get to average for him to still be a big net plus to the team.

I always had faith he'd become a plus hitter, and I'm glad we never traded him.

[Hugh2]

Yes, there were many of us who thought his bat would eventually at least get to average. There were fewer of us who felt his bat didn't even have to get to average for him to still be a big net plus to the team.

I always had faith he'd become a plus hitter, and I'm glad we never traded him.

 

I thought it would be at least average, and I thought/hoped he could be even more than that. I gave JBJ a little bit more time than most because he was rushed in 2013 and jerked around for the next 2 years.

[harmony]

Even if he does slump.....which he will....he will save runs with his glove and canon of an arm. Today he's 0-2 so far.....but he saved a run with a great throw. ......and as you may remember, I wanted him gone after 2014!!!! .......woops

The early-season defensive metrics are interesting:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

... but the samples are too small to be meaningful.

[S5Dewey]

The early-season defensive metrics are interesting:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

... but the samples are too small to be meaningful.

 

Man, I guess I either need to have my eyes poked out or I a need a crash course in advanced metrics. My understanding of UZR/150 is that a "normal" center fielder would have a UZR/150 of 0 and all calculations area a deviation from 0. If I read this correctly Bradley Jr. has a UZR/150 of -14.6 and is 20th out of 24 in range factor. Ellsbury, OTOH, is 6th in Range Factor with +13.2. This proves what I've always suspected, that when it comes to statistics, eyes are absolutely useless.

 

WAR, of course, which uses range factor in its calculations, is the be-all, end-all of statistics. /s/

 

Could it be that we've become so obsessed with statistics that we can no longer see the forest for the trees?

[Emp9]

Yes, there were many of us who thought his bat would eventually at least get to average. There were fewer of us who felt his bat didn't even have to get to average for him to still be a big net plus to the team.

I always had faith he'd become a plus hitter, and I'm glad we never traded him.

 

Yeah, I never wanted to trade him. If his bat still never showed, a defensive wiz CFer w/ a canon as our 4th OF would've been all fine w/ me even as a late game replacement. He may be a little streaky so far, but it's really a no-brainer.

[Bellhorn04]

Man, I guess I either need to have my eyes poked out or I a need a crash course in advanced metrics. My understanding of UZR/150 is that a "normal" center fielder would have a UZR/150 of 0 and all calculations area a deviation from 0. If I read this correctly Bradley Jr. has a UZR/150 of -14.6 and is 20th out of 24 in range factor. Ellsbury, OTOH, is 6th in Range Factor with +13.2. This proves what I've always suspected, that when it comes to statistics, eyes are absolutely useless.

 

WAR, of course, which uses range factor in its calculations, is the be-all, end-all of statistics. /s/

 

Could it be that we've become so obsessed with statistics that we can no longer see the forest for the trees?

 

All it takes is a few misplayed balls to hurt your defensive rating this early in the year. UZR/150 takes the small sample and extrapolates it to 150 games.

 

I do remember earlier in the year some comments in game threads about Jackie making a few surprisingly bad plays.

 

I'm quite confident he'll turn those numbers around.

[Slasher9]

Man, I guess I either need to have my eyes poked out or I a need a crash course in advanced metrics. My understanding of UZR/150 is that a "normal" center fielder would have a UZR/150 of 0 and all calculations area a deviation from 0. If I read this correctly Bradley Jr. has a UZR/150 of -14.6 and is 20th out of 24 in range factor. Ellsbury, OTOH, is 6th in Range Factor with +13.2. This proves what I've always suspected, that when it comes to statistics, eyes are absolutely useless.

 

WAR, of course, which uses range factor in its calculations, is the be-all, end-all of statistics. /s/

 

Could it be that we've become so obsessed with statistics that we can no longer see the forest for the trees?

 

the Slasher Tracker is all you need.

[Jack Flap]

All it takes is a few misplayed balls to hurt your defensive rating this early in the year. UZR/150 takes the small sample and extrapolates it to 150 games.

 

I do remember earlier in the year some comments in game threads about Jackie making a few surprisingly bad plays.

 

I'm quite confident he'll turn those numbers around.

 

Yeah, based on the "eye test" I'm not too shocked the metrics don't love him so far, but I don't expect that to continue. If his defense can normalize around its usual levels, and he continues hitting anywhere close to the way he has, he may cement himself as the best non-Trout CF in the AL this year.

[S5Dewey]

All it takes is a few misplayed balls to hurt your defensive rating this early in the year. UZR/150 takes the small sample and extrapolates it to 150 games.

 

I do remember earlier in the year some comments in game threads about Jackie making a few surprisingly bad plays.

 

I'm quite confident he'll turn those numbers around.

 

Yes. I agree and I'm aware of that.

 

My post was more of a reply to "harmony" (a/k/a Hill on the other board) who has a habit of cherry-picking statistics to make Red Sox players look worse than they really are. You'll get used to it eventually and give his posts the weight they deserve.

[SoxHop]

15 Games vs teams with a winning percentage above .500 - 8 wins

 

18 Games vs teams with a winning percentage less than .500 - 12 wins

[SoxnCycles]

15 Games vs teams with a winning percentage above .500 - 8 wins

 

18 Games vs teams with a winning percentage less than .500 - 12 wins

 

Considering their start, not a bad mix.

With their offense, they do need to start dominating at home.

[Maxbialystock]

Back to JBJ. His hitting is a big surprise to me, not this year but last year when suddenly in August he started blasting and finished with an OPS over .800, which this year so far is over .900.

 

So I took a peak at the espn.com ratings of all AL centerfielders and was mildly surprised that Bradley Jr is ranked 5th despite having the second best OPS after Trout, just one less rbi than Trout, and all those defensive skills. Well it turns out, as has been noted already, that JBJ's defensive WAR is actually a -.3 despite that great arm, those great instincts, and a 4 assist/1 error ratio.

 

What I am here to say is that, while I think the -.3 is wrong, I do think it suggests that JBJ, despite his enormous talent in the outfield, might not be quite as great as we all think. For one thing, that great arm isn't always accurate. When it is, I hasten to add, he is one of the very few centerfielders who can do what he did last night--go to his right and in a little to grab a single and then gun down the baserunner coming from 2d base. The throw was a little off line, but it was a shot that got to Hanigan on the fly and gave him time to dive across home plate and nail the runner on a very good play. Other times, I have the impression JBJ is a little cavalier about line drive ground balls to centerfield which at least twice have gotten right by him. Once I also saw Holt make a diving catch in left center that I honestly think JBJ was closer to. Plus sometimes he likes to showboat a little on easy catches.

[sk7326]

Back to JBJ. His hitting is a big surprise to me, not this year but last year when suddenly in August he started blasting and finished with an OPS over .800, which this year so far is over .900.

 

So I took a peak at the espn.com ratings of all AL centerfielders and was mildly surprised that Bradley Jr is ranked 5th despite having the second best OPS after Trout, just one less rbi than Trout, and all those defensive skills. Well it turns out, as has been noted already, that JBJ's defensive WAR is actually a -.3 despite that great arm, those great instincts, and a 4 assist/1 error ratio.

 

What I am here to say is that, while I think the -.3 is wrong, I do think it suggests that JBJ, despite his enormous talent in the outfield, might not be quite as great as we all think. For one thing, that great arm isn't always accurate. When it is, I hasten to add, he is one of the very few centerfielders who can do what he did last night--go to his right and in a little to grab a single and then gun down the baserunner coming from 2d base. The throw was a little off line, but it was a shot that got to Hanigan on the fly and gave him time to dive across home plate and nail the runner on a very good play. Other times, I have the impression JBJ is a little cavalier about line drive ground balls to centerfield which at least twice have gotten right by him. Once I also saw Holt make a diving catch in left center that I honestly think JBJ was closer to. Plus sometimes he likes to showboat a little on easy catches.

 

The data is very noisy so far - he is not off to a great start clearly. But you really need 2 seasons of data to make any conclusions about the player. Bradley is more likely to bounce back.