A Realistic View at 2016

[moonslav59]

For years I started threads at the Globe's Red Sox Front Burner Forum titled "A Realistic Look at ...." I hope I can continue the tradition here. Here's an updated look at the last one I posted on that site:

 

Regardless of what many Sox fans might believe, the Red Sox have a restricted budget. The sky is NOT the limit. Henry has allowed DD to go over the luxury tax limit, but I seriously doubt that will last going forward (at least by a significant amount). To be realistic, I think we should hold all suggested trades, signings and moves to the standard of not going over the limit by more than about $10M. With that in mind, here is how the luxury tax budget numbers look as of now: under contract (luxury tax not 2016 salary):

 

$187.8M Total

 

$30M Price, $22M H. Ramirez, $20.6M Porcello, $19M Sandoval, $16M Ortiz, $13.75M Pedroia, $13M Buchholz, $10.5M Kimbrell, $10.25M Castillo, $9M Uehara, $6.5M Young, $6.2M Craig, $3.6M Hannigan, $3.375M Tazawa, $2.6M Kelly, $1.25M Ross

(Note: Craig's contract does not count on the luxury tax budget, if he remains off the 40 man roster, so the luxury number is really $181.2M)

 

The 25 other players on the current 40 man roster (listed by seniority on the roster): Wright, Vazquez, Holt, JBJ, Workman (DL), Bogaerts, Brentz, Betts, Layne, Hembree, Barnes, Coyle, Swihart, Shaw, E Rodriguez, Marrero, N Ramirez, B Johnson, Owens, Jerez, Light, Hernandez, Carson, Elias, Rutledge, Cuevas

 

Add about $14M for these 25 players and the player payroll budget (luxury tax) equals about:

 

$195M

 

Now, add the $11M for player benefits and our Luxry Tax Total is...

 

$206M

 

That leaves us about $17M over the luxury tax limit without counting Craig's $6.2M payroll tax number. Looking at 2017, we will not be committed to paying Ortiz $16M, Uehara $9M and Tazawa $3.4M. We have options on Buchholz $13.5M and Hanigan $3.75M. That leaves us at about $29M to replace these players, not counting the expected big rise in the luxury tax limit. That may appear like a lot of money, but finding a replacement for Papi (3B, LF or 1B) will not come cheap. We will probably also need a solid number 2 SP'er and at least 2 quality RP'ers to replace Uehara and Tazawa.

 

Feel free to comment on my 25 and 40 man roster projections and anything else that has to do with the Red Sox.

 

Let's keep politics and personal attacks off this thread.

 

More to come. Thanks!

 

Sox4ever

[a700hitter]

For years I started threads at the Globe's Red Sox Front Burner Forum titled "A Realistic Look at ...." I hope I can continue the tradition here. Here's an updated look at the last one I posted on that site:

 

Regardless of what many Sox fans might believe, the Red Sox have a restricted budget. The sky is NOT the limit. Henry has allowed DD to go over the luxury tax limit, but I seriously doubt that will last going forward (at least by a significant amount). To be realistic, I think we should hold all suggested trades, signings and moves to the standard of not going over the limit by more than about $10M. With that in mind, here is how the luxury tax budget numbers look as of now: under contract (luxury tax not 2016 salary):

 

$187.8M Total

 

$30M Price, $22M H. Ramirez, $20.6M Porcello, $19M Sandoval, $16M Ortiz, $13.75M Pedroia, $13M Buchholz, $10.5M Kimbrell, $10.25M Castillo, $9M Uehara, $6.5M Young, $6.2M Craig, $3.6M Hannigan, $3.375M Tazawa, $2.6M Kelly, $1.25M Ross

(Note: Craig's contract does not count on the luxury tax budget, if he remains off the 40 man roster, so the luxury number is really $181.2M)

 

The 25 other players on the current 40 man roster (listed by seniority on the roster): Wright, Vazquez, Holt, JBJ, Workman (DL), Bogaerts, Brentz, Betts, Layne, Hembree, Barnes, Coyle, Swihart, Shaw, E Rodriguez, Marrero, N Ramirez, B Johnson, Owens, Jerez, Light, Hernandez, Carson, Elias, Rutledge, Cuevas

 

Add about $14M for these 25 players and the player payroll budget (luxury tax) equals about:

 

$195M

 

Now, add the $11M for player benefits and our Luxry Tax Total is...

 

$206M

 

That leaves us about $17M over the luxury tax limit without counting Craig's $6.2M payroll tax number. Looking at 2017, we will not be committed to paying Ortiz $16M, Uehara $9M and Tazawa $3.4M. We have options on Buchholz $13.5M and Hanigan $3.75M. That leaves us at about $29M to replace these players, not counting the expected big rise in the luxury tax limit. That may appear like a lot of money, but finding a replacement for Papi (3B, LF or 1B) will not come cheap. We will probably also need a solid number 2 SP'er and at least 2 quality RP'ers to replace Uehara and Tazawa.

 

Feel free to comment on my 25 and 40 man roster projections and anything else that has to do with the Red Sox.

 

Let's keep politics and personal attacks off this thread.

 

More to come. Thanks!

 

Sox4ever

For all the talk by the FO about not wanting to commit big contracts to aging pitchers and to look for value contracts, they have done a terrible job at getting value. They have loaded up a bloated payroll with worthless assets. Few of those contracts have any value as assets in a trade. Craig's and Panda's contracts look like sunk costs. We will get nothing in return for either of them -- not $ or talent. I can't getting back more than a fraction of Castillo's contract. They will need to clear a lot of payroll before Betts and XB come up for Arbitration. That will no be easy to do, and it will impact whether we can acquire a #2 pitcher.

[Kingface]

Well.........Let me preface this by saying I was (so far) very wrong about Hanley at 1B. Could we have found our 1Baseman for the next few years in him and not have to worry about 1B. DH will be easier and cheaper to replace then 1B. I think using the DH spot as a place to give some regulars a day off may be beneficial. If Pablo can get his head out of his ample butt.....could he maybe 'platoon' at DH and 3B with Shaw next year? A lot of the offensive holes we have could just be filled from within.....especially with Benintendi and Moncada tearing it up......

 

I worry more about pitching........would love to see them put resources together for a #2 and another arm in the BP...... I would do that with available cash and maybe a trade with our minor league depth.

[a700hitter]

Well.........Let me preface this by saying I was (so far) very wrong about Hanley at 1B. Could we have found our 1Baseman for the next few years in him and not have to worry about 1B. DH will be easier and cheaper to replace then 1B. I think using the DH spot as a place to give some regulars a day off may be beneficial. If Pablo can get his head out of his ample butt.....could he maybe 'platoon' at DH and 3B with Shaw next year? A lot of the offensive holes we have could just be filled from within.....especially with Benintendi and Moncada tearing it up......

 

I worry more about pitching........would love to see them put resources together for a #2 and another arm in the BP...... I would do that with available cash and maybe a trade with our minor league depth.

Especially since the organization's weak spot is drafting and developing top pitchers. We have plenty of positional talent in the organization to put together attractive packages.

[Kingface]

Exactly.........I hate to say it but I have the horrible feeling they will find a way to mess with Espinoza. I think we're cursed in regards to pitcher developement! Anybody have any idea who could be available by trade or FA? Way too early....I know.....but could be interesting. I think we need to get off the 'let's trade for Gray or Sale ideas. These are teams that are trying to BUILD around these great young pitchers.....not do the Sox favors by trading them for unproven lower level talent.

[User Name]

The Sox don't need a standout #2 this year, and they don't need it for next year. They need health from the rotation, a reliable pitcher, health from the BP (add another live arm if they have to replace Koji) and a manager who does not have his head firmly up his ass.

 

The DH/LF conondrum can be sorted internally (Travis looks like he's just about MLB ready offensively, and one of Moncada/Benintendi will probably be ready for next year). As many people have famously said over the years: "It's the pitching, stupid".

[moonslav59]

Other than Ortiz, our starting positional players are all locked up for 3 or more years (counting 2015):

 

7 years: Price (with 3 year opt out)

6 years: Pedroia

5 years: Sandoval (team option after 4)Castillo, Betts, JBJ, Vazquez,Smith Wright, Elias, Layne

4 years: Ramirez (vesting option after 3), Porcello, Bogaerts, Holt, Rutledge, Workman

3 years: Kimbrel (team option after 2), Kelly, Ross

2 years: Young, Hanigan (team option after this year)

1 year: Ortiz, Uehara, Tazawa

 

First arb year not established: ERod, Swihart, T Shaw, Barnes, N Ramirez and everyone else on the 40 man roster not listed here.

 

In some ways, it's nice to know you don't have any big positional player shoes to fill after Big Papi this winter, but with sunken cost players like Sandoval, Craig and maybe Castillo, HanRam and possibly others, it's hard to not think our budget problems might get worse before they get better.

 

Having Moncada, Benintendi, Travis, Devers and some others on the horizon may help us avoid needing free agents to fill the gaps, but who knows at this point?

 

With our pitching staff, we have a lot more flexibility, but also a lot more need. We can't really count on any of our younger pitchers except for maybe ERod and eventually Espinoza. Porcello could turn into a sunken cost or a huge overpay. Buch's slot will be open this winter or next. Kelly is still largely a question mark. Losing Uehara and Tazawa is going to be hard to deal with.

 

I think the biggest financial expenditures in the near future will have to be on our pitching staff. We're going to have to make do with our line-up for now and hope our top prospects rise quickly to replace the flame-outs and bums.

[Spudboy]

Why are you assuming that both Koji and Tazawa will be gone after 2016?

[Kingface]

Why are you assuming that both Koji and Tazawa will be gone after 2016?

 

I don't think he's assuming that. They will just be FA's so their money doesn't count towards anything TECHNICALLY. I think signing Taz right now and locking him up for 2 years and Koji for another year at a reduced rate could go a long way though.

 

This has become a BP league. Whatever we can do to give us a great BP and a solid staff will be HUGE. Right now the SP are not looking too solid.....albeit too early to really judge that one yet....

[Spudboy]

I don't think he's assuming that. They will just be FA's so their money doesn't count towards anything TECHNICALLY. I think signing Taz right now and locking him up for 2 years and Koji for another year at a reduced rate could go a long way though.

 

This has become a BP league. Whatever we can do to give us a great BP and a solid staff will be HUGE. Right now the SP are not looking too solid.....albeit too early to really judge that one yet....

 

Okay, cool.

 

I like your idea of signing both, although I would be more comfortable doing so a little later in the season so we can see that both still have enough to be worth signing.

 

Everyone seems preoccupied with Koji being 41. I say hogwash. As long as he can bring that splitter to each game he should be useful. No, I do not expect 2013 Koji every game.

 

For years I have seen Taz as the work horse of our BP staff. I think that he gets over used and hope that the Sox can stay away from wearing him out by July.

[Maxbialystock]

Tazawa's forkball makes him a keeper.

[moonslav59]

Yes, I meant their contractual obligation will be gone and in need or replacing. Of course, we could replace their contracts with new ones and keep one or both of them. Uehara will be another year older, so I doubt he'll demand $9M, but if Tazawa has a good year, he'll demand more than he's getting now.

 

My main point was that I think almost all our free agent money will need to go towards improving our pitching staff. The positional players are all locked up for several years with many prospects looking to steal their jobs or be blocked, so I don't see a valid argument for spending long and large on a 1Bman, 3Bman or LF'er next winter.

[Northern Star]

Okay, cool.

 

I like your idea of signing both, although I would be more comfortable doing so a little later in the season so we can see that both still have enough to be worth signing.

 

Everyone seems preoccupied with Koji being 41. I say hogwash. As long as he can bring that splitter to each game he should be useful. No, I do not expect 2013 Koji every game.

 

For years I have seen Taz as the work horse of our BP staff. I think that he gets over used and hope that the Sox can stay away from wearing him out by July.

 

They're already talking about limiting Koji's workload. I think you have to look elsewhere for next season.

[wyo-sox]

Well.........Let me preface this by saying I was (so far) very wrong about Hanley at 1B. Could we have found our 1Baseman for the next few years in him and not have to worry about 1B. DH will be easier and cheaper to replace then 1B. I think using the DH spot as a place to give some regulars a day off may be beneficial. If Pablo can get his head out of his ample butt.....could he maybe 'platoon' at DH and 3B with Shaw next year? A lot of the offensive holes we have could just be filled from within.....especially with Benintendi and Moncada tearing it up......

 

I worry more about pitching........would love to see them put resources together for a #2 and another arm in the BP...... I would do that with available cash and maybe a trade with our minor league depth.

 

I think we may have our 1baseman. Who would have thought the most solid part of this team would be the corners manned by Shaw and Ramirez?

[moonslav59]

I'm still not convinced on Shaw, but his bat is looking more and more legit every day. I don't like his defense enough to view him as a long term 3B solution.

 

Eventually, I see Moncada at 3B (or possibly LF) with Devers in the wings.

 

That leaves HanRam, Shaw and Sandoval sharing 1B and DH duties while backing up 3B as well. Sam Travis has an outside shot of crashing the party as well.

[cp176]

I also think that getting Moncada off second base makes sense. He is very apt to be moving quickly through the system. I think that quite possibly Sam Travis could be our first baseman on opening day next year. Ramirez to the dh and Shaw stays put at third. Sandoval is heading toward that big dumpster. Now, with all that being said, a package of Sam Travis and others might just help to bring a real pitcher to Boston to help us get over the fact that both Kelly and Buchholz are essentially useless if you have to count on them.

[moonslav59]

Travis Shaw scares me on defense at 3B. I think that 3B is Moncada's likely landing spot. I'm not a scout, so I'm not sure how strong his arm is for 3B, but I have said for years that the Sox wait too long to move prospects to the positions they likely will be used,

 

Moncada should start playing some 3B and LF.

 

Eventually, Devers might need to get some reps at 1B.

 

I still think if Shaw's bat is for real, he'll end up at 1B.

[wyo-sox]

Boy I've not seen anything from Travis Shaw that scares me about his defense. He has looked really good to me.

[moonslav59]

Shaw did make a nice play yesterday, but I've seen him miss a lot of balls most 3Bmen would have gotten to.

[a700hitter]

I have seen Shaw make several nice plays that Panda just doesn't have the athleticism to make. he has mad long throws from behind the bag, diving plays to his left and right, and coming in on slow rollers. He's not Beltre, but he can handle the position.

[mvp 78]

Shaw did make a nice play yesterday, but I've seen him miss a lot of balls most 3Bmen would have gotten to.

 

Nope. Unless you have an interesting definition of a lot.

[Spudboy]

I have seen Shaw make several nice plays that Panda just doesn't have the athleticism to make. he has mad long throws from behind the bag, diving plays to his left and right, and coming in on slow rollers. He's not Beltre, but he can handle the position.

 

And he is always in proper position when fielding throws from the catcher and other position players. He is then able to make good tags. I believe this has been largely overlooked.

[Spudboy]

Nope. Unless you have an interesting definition of a lot.

 

Yeah, his size makes us think that he does not have the mobility to have effective range. But so far I can't think of many balls that he did not get to that maybe he should have.

[Kimmi]

Exactly.........I hate to say it but I have the horrible feeling they will find a way to mess with Espinoza. I think we're cursed in regards to pitcher developement! Anybody have any idea who could be available by trade or FA? Way too early....I know.....but could be interesting. I think we need to get off the 'let's trade for Gray or Sale ideas. These are teams that are trying to BUILD around these great young pitchers.....not do the Sox favors by trading them for unproven lower level talent.

 

The Sox, recognizing their weakness in developing pitchers, hired Brian Bannister to be the Director of Pitching Analytics and Development. Rich Hill is supposedly a Bannister "product". I don't think the Sox are going to mess Espinoza up, and I think we'll see better success in drafting and developing pitchers in the coming years.

[a700hitter]

And he is always in proper position when fielding throws from the catcher and other position players. He is then able to make good tags. I believe this has been largely overlooked.

That is a good point. I have noticed that. Yesterday, when they caught Altuve going into 3rd standing up, Pedey made a phenomenal relay throw and Shaw slapped that tag on him so swiftly that it definitely influenced the call on a very close play. He has made some very other nice tag plays.

[Kimmi]

Shaw has looked very good defensively, IMO. The metrics say he has been very good, although you really can't take anything from 3 weeks worth of data.

 

OTOH, there is reason to be less optimistic about his offense. His K rate and his BABIP both say beware of when he returns to earth.

[Kingface]

"I have seen Shaw make several nice plays that Panda just doesn't have the athleticism to make. he has mad long throws from behind the bag, diving plays to his left and right, and coming in on slow rollers. He's not Beltre, but he can handle the position. "

 

While I agree short term.....I think long term Shaw is meant to be a 1Bman and DH......same with Hanley until his contract is up. I REALLY see Moncada moving to LF and Devers at 3B long term. Devers does not have the quickness of Moncada but he has a decent glove at 3B. Moncada has a good arm and obviously insane speed that I think lends itself to LF.

 

I jjst don't see Shaw sticking at 3B with what we have coming down the pike sooner rather than later.

 

BTW......another interesting thought is: If Betts, JBJ, and Moncada is the possible future outfield......does that make Betti expendable for a TOR starter? Something to consider....as much as I hate to think of it.

 

 

FYI.....new forum....trying to figure out the whole 'quote thing'........

[a700hitter]

Shaw has looked very good defensively, IMO. The metrics say he has been very good, although you really can't take anything from 3 weeks worth of data.

 

OTOH, there is reason to be less optimistic about his offense. His K rate and his BABIP both say beware of when he returns to earth.

A return to earth would still be an improvement over Panda against lefties.

[cp176]

That is a good point. I have noticed that. Yesterday, when they caught Altuve going into 3rd standing up, Pedey made a phenomenal relay throw and Shaw slapped that tag on him so swiftly that it definitely influenced the call on a very close play. He has made some very other nice tag plays.

 

Shaw plays the game the right way. He is better than everybody gave him credit for being and he has an absolute rifle for an arm. Going forward, sadly for us possibly, it is going to require some intelligence to actually get these guys into positions where the best players are on the field in positions that they can help us the most. If Moncada continues to hit, he is going to move quickly upward. To continue using him at second base is the kind of "failure to adjust before it is too late" mentality that we are used to.

[southpaw777]

I have seen nothing but great plays from Shaw...hes going to make a couple errors, but i really dont know what your watching Moon. theres really nothing i can think of that most other 3b would get to that he hasnt. with that said, Im not sure hes the long term solution there.

Moncada hasnt played one inning at 3b so lets not pencil him in just yet. I agree that I would give him reps at another position, but lets wait til the kid can get a full pro year under his belt at one position and also get through A Ball first.

Benintendi may have the faster track because of his college time. I could see him in Boston in 2017 and moncada maybe in 2018.

Panda needs to go one way or another. at this point he has to play some to get any value, so until he goes back to andrews and we can shift him to the 60 day DL hes going to have to take up a valuable roster spot.

Ive never been one to complain about the Manager too much, but Farrell has got to go...this guy has made so many questionable in game moves and has mismanaged his roster so badly you would swear hes trying to lose. he was a great pitching Coach, but IMHO is a terrible game Manager. I bet (hope) after DD's "vote of confidence" Farrell is gone sometime soon..