Outlook for 2016

[User Name]

What did gay people ever do to you?

[mvp 78]

What did gay people ever do to you?

 

The lesbians across the street gave my son their daughter's 4 in 1 Ride On Car. Both my children love it. Also, they gave me a bunch of power tools when they moved.

[User Name]

The lesbians across the street gave my son their daughter's 4 in 1 Ride On Car. Both my children love it. Also, they gave me a bunch of power tools when they moved.

 

Power tools and lesbians? Is there an innuendo here I'm not getting?

[mvp 78]

Power tools and lesbians? Is there an innuendo here I'm not getting?

 

They threw kick ass pool parties too.

[Thunder]

No one good lives near me. Just an old man who hates me and another old man who tolerates me... Kind of like you guys. I wish there was a girl next door, or something like that. There is a new house being built across the street from my next door neighbors, so there's potential...

[mvp 78]

No one good lives near me. Just an old man who hates me and another old man who tolerates me... Kind of like you guys. I wish there was a girl next door, or something like that. There is a new house being built across the street from my next door neighbors, so there's potential...

 

I have a 16 year old girl next door to me. Let's switch houses. Will the old dudes babysit?

[jacksonianmarch]

You can be unconcerned offensively as plenty of fat guys can hit. But defensively is where the concern comes in. Pablo was the worst defensive 3b in the game last year and looked like he couldn't bend over by years end. That's a problem

[Thunder]

I have a 16 year old girl next door to me. Let's switch houses. Will the old dudes babysit?

 

No, but a college girl across the street will.

[Bellhorn04]

Here's a comment from FanGraphs that everyone is going to love:

 

From the 'After Dark Chat' on Tuesday:

 

9:12 Barry from Boston: The SP rotation after Price, slobs Panda and Handley, unproven Castillo and catchers. How can they be so highly regarded with this many holes?

 

9:13 Paul Swydan: Because there are potential solutions there. The Sox have a very wide beta. They could easily be a 98-win or 72-win team. Which I think is about 8-10 wins wider than the gap is for most teams.

 

So there you have it folks - anywhere from 72 to 98, per FanGraphs!

 

(I think the guy who asked the question may have been Jacko posing as a Sox fan.)

[User Name]

I wouldn't be surprised if Jacko's real name was something like "Barry". Would explain a lot.

[mvp 78]

I wouldn't be surprised if Jacko's real name was something like "Barry". Would explain a lot.

 

Nah, Jacko can spell Hanley. That question has more of a Sawxheads feel to it.

 

Also, anyone else really into an After Dark chat talking about wide betas? Oh la la...

[Orange Juiced]

If things go badly for Boston...

 

- Price is less effective than normal (say, high 3's era...solid, but not ace solid).

- Koji and Taz are hurt and Smith isn't up to par in Boston, leaving the Sox with just one really good bullpen arm in Kimbrel.

- Hanley and Pablo are not so bad that the front office HAS to replace them, but they're just not very good.

- JBJ can't hit again.

- Farrell inexplicably plays Young a lot more than he should.

- Pedroia is beat up again.

- Ortiz' swan song is depressingly bad.

 

And the Sox finish in dead last again.

 

 

If things go well for Boston...

 

- Ortiz finishes strong.

- Pablo and Hanley bounce back and are pretty good.

- The young OFs are all really good.

- The rotation behind Price steps up; Clay, Porcello, and Kelly all have big years.

- The bullpen is as dominant as it looks like it can be.

 

And the Sox win 97 games.

 

Honestly, it could totally go either way. It's crazy. There are so many unknowns. So many things I'm hopeful and optimistic about, but so many things that have a reasonable chance of going wrong. Could be a wild ride this year.

[User Name]

Or they could go right down the middle, win 80+ games and be competitive, but not make the playoffs. Like the dude from fangraphs said, it's not black and white. The range of possible outcomes for the Red Sox is enormous.

[Orange Juiced]

Or they could go right down the middle, win 80+ games and be competitive, but not make the playoffs. Like the dude from fangraphs said, it's not black and white. The range of possible outcomes for the Red Sox is enormous.

 

Totally agree.

[jacksonianmarch]

I would say this team has a much higher floor than season's past. With a pen as good as yours should be and an ace, I think this team upgraded its rotation enough to be a .500 team as a strong likelihood with the floor being not too much below that. I just think that the rest of the rotation is pretty suspect while removing one of the only stabilizing forces from last yr in Miley and not doing much of anything to an offense that needed some upgrading is the concern. I think your staff ERA will drop by a fair amount, but I don't think the offense can replicate it's successes from last yr as currently is. I know Hanley and Pablo had down years, but I don't think they return to form and are likely to need replacing in season. I think Holt is your 3b and Shaw your 1b on a regular basis by the ASB. Also, one must factor in the Farrell factor. The guy is on the hot seat. He isn't going to stick with anyone who is sucking. SO if Hanley goes out there and sucks it up in April, theres a chance he is on the bench by Memorial Day. Same with Pablo Sandoblob Edited February 24, 2016 by jacksonianmarch

[User Name]

Good analysis, Barry. But what makes you think Hanley doesn't bounce back? Other than the usual health concerns, he should be able to at least be a positive offensively.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think the health concerns creep in again. Also, he never had the shoulder fixed. How often do you see a major league player miss most of a season with a shoulder issue and come back healthy without any will publicized intervention? Plus, he's playing a new position and his approach sucks. He got his big money, I doubt very highly he lives up to the contract.

[Bellhorn04]

I think the health concerns creep in again. Also, he never had the shoulder fixed. How often do you see a major league player miss most of a season with a shoulder issue and come back healthy without any will publicized intervention? Plus, he's playing a new position and his approach sucks. He got his big money, I doubt very highly he lives up to the contract.

 

You have to change your avatar back. I can't look at that.

[User Name]

I think the health concerns creep in again. Also, he never had the shoulder fixed. How often do you see a major league player miss most of a season with a shoulder issue and come back healthy without any will publicized intervention? Plus, he's playing a new position and his approach sucks. He got his big money, I doubt very highly he lives up to the contract.

 

Not pitchers, but hitters come back from shoulder issues to have positive offensive contributions (Adrian Gonzales, it lingered and sapped his power, but he was definitely providing value) a lot of the time. You're grasping at straws with the offensive bounceback Barry, but the health and defense concerns are real.

[a700hitter]

You have to change your avatar back. I can't look at that.

Get used to it. You are going to have to watch it at 3B this season.

[sk7326]

I think the health concerns creep in again. Also, he never had the shoulder fixed. How often do you see a major league player miss most of a season with a shoulder issue and come back healthy without any will publicized intervention? Plus, he's playing a new position and his approach sucks. He got his big money, I doubt very highly he lives up to the contract.

 

What is interesting is that his approach has always been really good until last year - it is hard to think that he has forgotten how to take at-bats.

[jung]

He has not forgotten how to take AB's. He simply was unable to do it last year.....physically. I would love to know where he really topped out in weight last year because he looked for all the world like a guy that was dealing with a whole new set of numbers and simply could not adapt to them. 280 was the last and highest real number I knew about. Maybe he did end up higher than 280 after all or maybe he hit 280 again only two years after he had done it the last time.

[sk7326]

He has not forgotten how to take AB's. He simply was unable to do it last year.....physically. I would love to know where he really topped out in weight last year because he looked for all the world like a guy that was dealing with a whole new set of numbers and simply could not adapt to them. 280 was the last and highest real number I knew about. Maybe he did end up higher than 280 after all or maybe he hit 280 again only two years after he had done it the last time.

 

I hope so. Really the .291 OBP was the hard part - the walk rate plummeted by over 50%. Now it could be explained physically - pitchers had no incentive to nibble. But that tendency is the one which seems like it should turn around - Ramirez has been better than that. He clearly pressed a lot.

[mvp 78]

Mookie in CF?!?!? Are you crazy?????????

 

I don't think the rotation will be fantastic unless ERod takes another leap and Clay has a career year.

 

I think Hanley will be fine at 1b.

 

Not sure Castillo will be batting 6th.

I think this is an 88 win team. Should be in the hunt in Sept.

 

Only need to go 1-10 to meet this horrible prediction.

[mvp 78]

I think you're selling the Yankees a little low with that figure. They'll probably wind up at .520.

 

At 78-72, the Yanks are currently at .520!

[Maxbialystock]

Only need to go 1-10 to meet this horrible prediction.

 

BS. THat prediction was pretty darn good. If that's what you really meant, I agree. The rotation isn't fantastic yet, but ERod and Buch have in fact been keys to making it pretty solid.